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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Close below 33,000 on monthly chart would spell trouble: Chris Kimble
    Close below 33,000 on monthly chart would spell trouble: Chris Kimble
    The stock market's Friday plunge will have market bulls looking for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to hold important support tied to the market's gyrations all the way back to the 2007-09 financial crisis, technical analyst Chris Kimble said on Friday.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/a-dow-close-below-33-000-would-spell-bad-news-for-stock-market-bulls-chart-watcher-11650651066
    How low can you go?!
    I keep buying slowly cautiously
    Acct -9.7%% now . all gains previously subsiding
    Maybe starting nosedive
    Feds /inflation/ stagnation growth expects Ukraine....c19...too many hits for stocks to take to recover?
    Maybe dji 27k by mid end summer
  • welcome to the MFO discussion board: civility is most important when all around you are turn toxic
    Great welcome letter, David!! Thank you.
    I have committed all the communications sins you mention and more on other boards, so for me, it is like a new start. I decided to keep my screen name because I don't like to hide who I am by pretending to be a different person. I hope that this board works for me and that I can contribute to it with my (limited) financial knowledge.
  • Bank of America Brian Moynihan Interview - Insightful on General Market
    Caught the interview of Brian on the "entertainment" Mad Money show. Found a few interesting comments from the CEO of BOA that have broader market implications:
    Cramer: Americans have a lot of dry powder and that can keep us out of a recession.
    Moynihan:
    *March 2022 vs. 2021. Consumers spent 13% more and 8% more transactions.
    *April 2022 vs. 2022 Consumers are spending more than 18% in April and this exceeds inflation. Faster spending.
    *Consumer accounts with 1-2K now have $3,500 in their checking account.
    *Consumer accounts with 2-5K in their accounts now have $13,000 in their checking account
    *Card spending is up 33% in early April vs. 2019 for those earning >50K
    *People are earning more and being paid more
    *Travel and restaurant spend has been constrained and people have been saving!
    *"Investors say don't fight the Fed, I always say, don't fight the US consumer"... "loan balances are down and they have plenty of spending capacity".
    The US economy has been constrained due to COVID... despite inflation and Ukraine, the US is much better positioned to have a strong economy this year. Makes you wonder why there's so much financial commentary on the positive outlook of International stocks and funds. I remain unconvinced and think the best values still lie in domestic funds.
    Cramer: "America has the edge on the rest of the world... that's the secret sauce that explains a great deal of todays' gains."
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Picked up a bit of a bank (Truist Financial / TFC) and a bakery (FLO). I’m with @Mark. Put cash to work if you can find something appetizing..
  • T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund is closing to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000174177322001131/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2022, as supplemented
    Effective Monday, May 9, 2022, the T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund will close to new investors. Accordingly, the summary and statutory prospectus are supplemented as follows:
    In the Summary Prospectus and Section 1 of the Prospectus, the disclosure under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, May 9, 2022, the fund will close to new investors and new accounts, subject to certain exceptions. Investors who already hold shares of the fund at the close of business on Monday, May 9, 2022, may continue to purchase additional shares. -End of Supplement Text----
    Section 2 of the Prospectus is supplemented as follows:
    CLOSED TO NEW INVESTORS
    The fund is currently closed to new accounts other than investors whose accounts meet any of the following criteria:
    · Participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund already serves as an investment option;
    · Direct rollovers from an employer-sponsored retirement plan to a new T. Rowe Price IRA;
    · Accounts held directly with T. Rowe Price that qualify through participation in certain T. Rowe Price programs;
    · T. Rowe Price multi-asset products (such as funds-of-funds);
    · Discretionary accounts managed by T. Rowe Price or one of its affiliates; or
    · Wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs, if permitted by T. Rowe Price.
    Shareholders with existing accounts may make additional investments and reinvest dividends and capital gains so long as they own shares of the fund in their account. Shareholders who own the fund through an intermediary should check with the financial intermediary to confirm eligibility to continue purchasing shares of the fund.
    The fund’s closed status does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account would generally not be permitted to re-establish the account and purchase shares unless they meet one of the above criteria. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may restrict the ability to purchase additional shares. In addition, the fund’s closed status does not restrict an existing investor’s ability to convert from one share class of the fund to another, provided the shareholder meets the eligibility criteria for the other share class.
    The fund reserves the right, when T. Rowe Price determines that it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
    The date of this supplement is April 18, 2022.
    F131-042 4/18/22
  • Barron's on Annuities
    @BaluBalu, I do like the original idea of EV/EBITDA as a business valuation measure with the aspects financing, taxes, accounting (depreciation, amortization) removed. It is really relevant to a cash-buyer of the entire business but to me it provides an alternate view of valuation from P/E and less used P/B (B is mostly meaningless now due to financial engineering but still OK for financials although even Warren Buffett has given up on it). Mario Gabelli and others use EV/EBITDA it a lot but there are critics too. IMO, the new age P/S will cause lot of harm to investors.
    But I agree that P/EBITDA used in COST article is neither here nor there - but in my Summaries, I "report" with as little editorialization as possible (although there is some).
  • Barron's on Annuities
    @yogibearbull, Unrelated to the OP.
    From your weekly summaries today -
    "By keeping things simple, Costco/COST is even challenging Amazon/AMZN. For fwd P/E, COST 46, AMZN 43 (and that includes Amazon web AWS); for P/EBITDA, COST 22, AMZN 16. Most of COST profits are from membership fees; membership growth is healthy and that just flows into its profits."
    IMO, that is an inflated valuation for COST, an indication that the general market valuations need to come down. As a very happy customer for the past 25 yrs, I can say that they can not sustain the recent price increases across the board. It is true that their annual membership fees (approx $4B) is a massive part of their net income (approx $6B). They probably have more room to increase net income if they can get their online store to be robust. As an aside, I am waiting for the day financial journalists stop using the misleading EBITDA as a metric.
  • Fallen Funds - TREMX
    The situation with Russia is worse than that of 2008, where everything took several years to fully recover. Is there a turn-around this time?
    BlackRock stands to loss the most - billions $ since they have the largest Russian exposure. Earning season is underway and watch for the financial sector. JP Morgan reported last week.
    https://jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2022/1st-quarter/c1afebcf-9ba1-44de-97fc-a446d7baf619.pdf
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    The index (13 wk T-Bill) rate re-sets every week. Assuming the spread rate is zero, a two year FRN is expected to yield about 0.8% currently. It was at 0.4% only a month ago. Given the Fed expects to keep raising the Fed fund rate and otherwise remove easy financial conditions (inflation or not), seems like a two year FRN is a good place for cash lovers (like a MM with a 13 wk T-Bill rate that resets weekly as a result of Fed policy, rate level, indirectly from inflation, etc. The question is, is there enough liquidity for the 2-yr FRNs in the secondary market to able to liquidate at the implied value at any time before the time of maturity?
    P.S.: I am interested in buying and holding this instrument - it is not just an intellectual curiosity.
  • Vanguard Introduces New Financial Advice Service for American Express U.S. Consumer Card Members
    They provide different levels of human service. The two earlier packages, and likely this new one, are based on Vanguard's robo-advisor.
    The Digital Advisor is pure robo. It costs 20 basis pts/year, but that is reduced by the revenue Vanguard gets from funds in the managed portfolio. Vanguard estimates that a robo-managed portfolio of Vanguard ETFs would have a net advisory cost of 0.15%. (That is, you'd be paying 0.20% including the ERs for the Vanguard ETFs.)
    Portfolio Advisory Services is a hybrid robo-advisor. You get periodic conversations with a dedicated advisor ($500K+) or with some program advisor ($50K+).
    This new INVEST for Amex by Vanguard service appears to take one step closer to a wrap account. At least for $100K+ accounts, where one gets unlimited access to human advisors.
  • Vanguard Introduces New Financial Advice Service for American Express U.S. Consumer Card Members
    Aren't Vanguard's "digital financial planning", "VG Personal Advisor Services (older/original)", "VG Digital Advisor (newer)" different versions of its robo-advisor?
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    A bit of an off topic -
    In the current financial environment, which of investment grade Muni or investment grade Corporate are considered less credit sensitive (i.e., ballast)? (Assume their Duration and thus their interest rate risk is the same.)
  • Neighbor chat. Inheritance. Minimize tax burden, investing via a taxable account
    I will tell you for sure @catch22, if I was handed a 1/2 million dollars at 70 years old to supplement my retirement days, I personally would not seek financial opinions from a posting board. I would go straight to a financial advisor.
    Obviously there are a few, if not more than a few posters here that are more than capable of giving good fund-investment advice (yes-also known as opinions). That group very much includes yourself. But none can set up an individualized plan for this couple for the rest of their lives. None can tell them how to set up their investments which seems to include both taxable and non-taxable savings, real estate, a business, SS and maybe more. None of us understands their goals and time horizon, how to safely spend down, where to pull income and in what investment order to divest, how to reduce their tax exposure, ect, ect, ect...
    "not random opinions from a posting board."
    Random opinions can be good advice or bad advice. Time will tell which is which.
  • Neighbor chat. Inheritance. Minimize tax burden, investing via a taxable account
    Not for nothing @catch22, but his couple needs encompassing financial advice and a long term financial plan from a good (fee only) financial advisor, not random opinions from a posting board.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    Used to be you had to go to a major league baseball game to get "sticker shock"..."how much you want for that beer, $12 bucks? Huh?" Now you walk into the grocery store to Rono's point...and you get the same kind of sticker shock...the "huh, that costs that much" thought.
    Really feel for those who are on a limited budget and have kids at home to feed.
    What a mess! This would be a real good time to those of us who have had financial success in life to maybe buy an extra week or two's worth of groceries and donate to their local food bank.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    Used to be you had to go to a major league baseball game to get "sticker shock"..."how much you want for that beer, $12 bucks? Huh?" Now you walk into the grocery store to Rono's point...and you get the same kind of sticker shock...the "huh, that costs that much" thought.
    Really feel for those who are on a limited budget and have kids at home to feed.
    What a mess! This would be a real good time to those of us who have had financial success in life to maybe buy an extra week or two's worth of groceries and donate to their local food bank.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Did I happen to mention that I bought PRISX TRP Financial Srvs. at just the right time, on St. Patrick's Day? Kiss of death. I'm down with it by -2.15% already. ;)
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    I don’t think we’ll see anything near 10% Y/Y inflation (CPI) this year or next. As for the “general public” I have little faith in their understanding of money, markets, financial planning. We’ve been dumbed down and polarized as a society compared to the 70s..
    However, I don’t recall that inflation was much of a “hot button” issue 70s thru 80s. ISTM most took it in stride along with all the other pieces of the economic puzzle. Among those: jobs, wages, perks (like retirement benefits and health insurance), the stock market, quality of public services and infrastructure and educational opportunities. So it was an issue. But not a “hot button” one.
    PS - Along with the inflation of the 70s & 80s there were several U.S. manned lunar landings and other advancements in space - something to be really proud of as a nation. And it was perhaps the genesis period for what later became the technological revolution. Loved my first computer - a Vic 20 (early 80s).
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    According to that SEC disclosure Charles posted, it all stemmed from a 1997 DUI that was plea bargained, and he must have misrepresented the outcome (?). Says nothing about financial fraud or anything like that.
    Seems like I've seen that used as a knock against Semper, which if this filing is the whole truth, is a bit over the top.