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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    New fund that has been around a couple years and wanted to get some feedback.
  • Reality check
    Twice I’ve asked absolute strangers met while traveling for investment tips. More of a conversation piece than serious talk. The first was while relaxing at a beach in the Florida Keys sometime in the early 2,000s. The fella recommended gold. Had been in a bear market. But had a great run later that year. Miners were up 30+% for the year. The second came from a young fella riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC 3 years ago. He recommended 1 stock - NVIDA. Being of the “brilliant” variety, I completely ignored both suggestions. :) Have to wonder how much NVIDA is up since May ‘21?
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
    Everyone has their own personal criteria for how they use brokerage CDs. I personally do not want to tie up my money for 5 years at my age, but others may be interested in doing that. Regarding MM funds, I do maintain a fair amount for liquidity reasons, but I have already started to see some decline in MM rates over the past couple of months, and I do not expect those rates to stay the same, or increase in the future.
    But to be fair, what is compelling for me, would not necessarily be compelling for others, such as you.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @AndyJ : It's been a few years, but I can remember being dam happy to get three %. That was for 2 year CD. I started reaching out a few months early , but such is the life of an investor. Interesting times await us ! Rolling some early, rolling some late
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I also concur with @rforno 's observations, at least the first few. (I don't invest directly with foreign equities or do realtime trading.)
    Several years ago when I had accounts at both brokerages I compared bond prices and came to the same conclusion that Fidelity was slightly better. Curiously, the full service broker I used for munis was finding bonds for me at prices that essentially matched Fidelity's.
    Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY).
    Regarding trading equities and ETFs: Schwab receives payment for order flow. Fidelity does not. (It does receive PFOF on options.) You can search for newer figures, but in 2021 "Order flow revenue made up approximately ten percent of [Schwab's] total revenue."
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/story/schwab-statement-on-payment-for-order-flow
    image
    https://brokerchooser.com/education/news/data-dashboard/payment-for-order-flow
  • About the 4% rule
    I'm not sure everyone is clear on the meaning of the 4% rule. The objectives are simplicity and very high confidence that one will not run out of money within 30 years.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary
    Simplicity: just stay the course, KISS, come hell or high water. No adjustments necessary.
    Gives example of how a target date fund
    Simplicity: Target date funds follow glide paths. The 4% rule hews to a fixed allocation.
    How can you straight line the 4% without taking these inputs into consideration.
    Starting in 1926, a 4% (inflation adjusted) withdrawal regimen from a 50/50 portfolio has never depleted assets in under 30 years. That includes starting in years like 1929, 1973, 1981, etc. The rule already incorporates objective risk, assuming past is prologue.
    That's not to say that people are subjectively able to handle sequence of return risk. And some people may want to plan for more than 30 years, either because they expect a longer life in retirement or their end target value is not simply "better than $0". They want to leave a legacy. And stuff happens; people may not be able to keep to a 4% budget.
    ISTM the biggest risk in the 4% rule is being left with too much money. Planning for worst case without adjustments is necessarily conservative and likely to "fail" on the upside (not spending enough). But by definition any strategy that includes making adjustments is not the simplest possible.
    For those who want to limit the risk of underspending, are willing to accept some risk of having less to spend in some years than they might otherwise like, and can manage more complex strategies (or are willing to hire someone else to do that), @Observant1 cited a good discussion of a couple of such strategies.
    Finally, using cash is very likely to fail. Over the past 96 years (1928-2023 inclusive), 3 mo. T-bill real returns have averaged 0.32%. (See cell T120 here.) Take 4%/year off of that and you're losing more than 3.5% annually. Even without compounding the loss, you'll run out of money in under 30 years.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    All I thought I did in the post you quoted was attempt to respond to the OP about our market participation level and briefly specify how. That ain't bragging in my books but YMMV.
    @stillers, you may not realize it, but you do pretty much brag in every post you make. A lot in common with your buddy, FD. Not saying your ideas aren't good ones and they are often timely, but you do often toot your own horn.
    Just in this thread alone:
    I tried earlier this year on this forum to stir others to participate
    I've promoted the fund for YEARS
    I projected (several times)
    I could list our OEFs with their YTD TRs and/or re-visit my ST trades from early this year on NVDA and GOOGL
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    FWIW, I tried earlier this year on this forum to stir others to participate in Semis and the MAG7, but with little success. Much better success elsewhere as many on another forum jumped on board the FSELX train early this year.

    "He who tooteth not his own horn, the same shall not be tooted."
    I think you got the wrong guy. It's my brother who has the PhD in English!
    Me? I nearly flunked English Lit, so sorry man, I have no idea what that means.
    But...WAG, if it attempts to suggest I'm bragging and something bad will ultimately happen to me for doing so, I'm gonna go ahead and respectfully disagree.
    FWIW, we've owned FSELX since near its inception. I've promoted the fund for YEARS and nothing real bad has happened to me (yet?) for doing so.
    As well, I projected (several times) Semis would Rock the Casbah at BOY 2024. I tried here and elsewhere to help others jump onboard both the Semis and MAG7 trains. Took a lot of abuse in doing so, especially on the MAG7 posts. But again, nothing real bad (yet?).
    All I thought I did in the post you quoted was attempt to respond to the OP about our market participation level and briefly specify how. That ain't bragging in my books but YMMV.
    If you want bragging, maybe I could list our OEFs with their YTD TRs and/or re-visit my ST trades from early this year on NVDA and GOOGL?
    But I'll never know unless you drop the old English stuff and just say what you mean.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    @stillers I'm with you on FSELX. It was the first purchase in my wife's Roth IRA back in 1998. Bought some more two years later. Needless to say, she's happy with the 25-year tax-free growth.
    It's also my biggest holding in my Rollover IRA.
    I have some ASML in my Roth IRA.
    Sometimes it's a wild ride, but I'm patient. Aggressively so, for an octogenarian.
    When our teenage grandson became interested in investing a couple of years ago, I insisted he buy SMH first.
    David
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    Sorry being late to this discussion. Our oversea exposure is about 7-8%, with mostly actively managed funds and ETFs. In taxable account, VEA and DIVI are the only one we use and they are tax efficient.
    1. For large cap developed market, ARTKX and FMIJX are the main vehicles.
    2. Lately CCGO was added to gain exposure to the “growth” stocks in Europe as BF mentioned the “Fantastic Five”. Capital fund does a good job so far managed the downside risk than that of Vanguard Int’l growth (we moved on when Ian Anderson retired).
    3. For EM exposure, we have 2% and it is getting smaller; largely invested in Seafarer funds with Andrew Foster and his teams.
    4. The only stake on int’l small caps we have is Seafarer EM Value.
    5. We continue to seek actively managed funds and ETFs with lower ER; preferable less than 1%.
    6. Back in the 80-90’s when US currency was less dominated to other currencies, many international funds often out-performed the US counter-parts. This has changed in the last 10 years as it reflects in our lowered exposure.
    7. In our 529 plan, Vanguard Total International stock index fund is used as part of the portfolio but we have limited choice there. Preferably, the Total Stock Market index would be better.
  • About the 4% rule
    IF one wants to follow Bengen's original paper, then one should (I think) be using large cap domestic stocks and intermediate term Treasuries. (He is clear about intermediate term treasuries but says only "large cap" stocks.)
    These days, many allocation funds invest a significant fraction of their equity sleeve abroad. IMHO that's not a bad thing, but it is different. A related "problem" is that allocation funds often invest some money into small cap stocks. While this is different from Bengen's original work, it could be an improvement:
    Bill Bengen ...has increased the withdrawal rate he uses on his own retirement portfolio to 4.7%, largely because of the upside he’s gained by adding small and microcap asset classes to his portfolio, he told the Bogleheads Live podcast this week. [Dec 2022]
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/creator-of-4--rule-says-new-withdrawal-target-is-4-7-71026.html
    That page goes on to say that these days, Bengen says that "the optimum stock allocation that allows the highest withdrawal rate over the long term is between 55% and 60% over the long term."
    That suggests that you might look at 60/40 funds, of which there are many. As to what Bengen himself is doing, rather than using his stated static allocation "he uses a third-party service that recommends changes to his asset allocation based on perceived changes in the marketplace."
    In short, consider looking at funds closer to 60/40. VBIAX (0.07% ER) is a good starting point if ER is paramount, or VSMGX (0.12% ER) to add foreign exposure.
    FWIW, here's a portfolio visualizer comparison of three 60/40 funds: AOR, VSMGX, and VBIAX. over roughly ten years (PV limitation). Starts with $10K, $400 (4%) annual withdrawal (inflation adjusted).
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    "Isn't Intl investing really a currency play on a weaker dollar...which might be in our near future, no?"
    Foreign currency weakness / strength against the dollar affects returns but there is more to the story.
    S&P 500 companies derive a significant portion of their revenue overseas.
    However, some excellent companies are domiciled outside of America.
    I would like to own these companies.
    Foreign stocks may provide diversification during longer periods
    where S&P 500 performance is dismal (e.g., 2000 - 2009).
    Of course, diversification works both ways.
    Foreign stocks have lagged U.S. stocks for approximately 15 years.
    This is an unusually long period and U.S. / foreign stock outperformance tends to run in cycles.
  • About the 4% rule
    William Bengen published Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part III
    in the Dec. 1997 Journal of Financial Planning. His recommended range for stock allocation
    was between 50% and 75% for a 65 year-old investor.
    "Because withdrawal rates within the recommended range of stocks are essentially equal,
    they are not very useful in selecting stock allocation.
    For another view of the matter, consider Chart 10, which depicts the nominal wealth built up
    in a portfolio after 30 years, for a retiree who began withdrawing four percent the first year.
    The two stock allocations displayed, 50 percent and 75 percent, represent the extreme ends
    of the 'recommended range' for this investor at age-65 retirement."

    PDF1
    Edit/Add: Bengen published Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IV
    in the May 2001 Journal of Financial Planning. Two alternative withdrawal strategies are explored.
    PDF2
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?

    I read with great interest Devesh Shah thoughts this morning and reasoning on helping to take the international allocation on the endowment he serves on down substantially.
    The question I have for him with zero criticism is I have read and watched Nobel prize winners like William Sharpe and Eugene Fama and Fama’s frequent collaboration Ken French suggest that there is very little signal in observations five , ten, or even twenty years out.
    Shah who is clearly a very smart person must know that.
    In order to move as sharply away from where the global portfolio clears or reaches equilibrium he is in fact making a big tactical bet.
    If we enter a period like 2000-2010 where essentially the S&P had zero returns ( not impossible given the elevated valuation of US stocks) the “bet” the board made goes against the idea of being market agnostic.
    I’m curious if they aren’t succumbing to recency bias even though the recency has persisted for a very long time?
  • Excess 529 monies to a ROTH IRA
    Using Savings Bonds for education has many restrictions.
    https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/tax-information-ee-i-bonds/using-bonds-for-higher-education/
    We bought some DECADES ago, and when these "new" rules came along, our bonds didn't qualify for one reason or another. By that time, we had stopped buying them, but just held them. Now, all have matured naturally (30 years) and we are Savings Bond free except for the I-Bonds we bought in 2021-22 during the mad rush when inflation was very high.
    But the rules for using Savings Bonds for education could certainly be simplified.
  • The insanity is back...
    Oh there's always the piker mania and get-rich-quick schemes every few years - remember the daytrading rage during Dot Com? The housing bubble, another one. And so forth.
    I just find it amusing in this case -- but I don't see the USG or Fed backstopping retail investors who lost $$$ on meme stocks based on whatever an influencer and/or the majority of a subreddit is buying at any given time. (I'm sure it's perfectly LEGAL for him to discuss his investments, though.)
    BTW 'Dumb Money' was a recent movie about the guy behind DFV and the GameStop circus.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    I have some 8% international in the actively managed portfolio. CGXU and OSEA for international LC, CGGO and GQPRX for global and BISAX for international SC.
    I switched to BISAX after HIISX disappointed me in the last two years. Both of those funds had terrible performance in 2022, for that matter. DIVI is a good choice, but its benchmark changed not long ago, making long-term comparison difficult.
  • Looks like most everything was up today.
    ”Let's ask the obvious easy question: if you held just the SP500 for your stock portion (based on Bogle+Buffet) have you done well YTD + in the last 3-5-10-15 years?”

    The S&P 500 lost approximately
    56.8% of its value between October 2007 and March 2009, according to the historical performance data. This significant decline was a result of the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. (Credit: Brave Search AI summarizer)
    Hey big guy - Every dollar you held in your S&P 500 index fund in October 2007 was worth 43 cents 16 months later. Sound like fun?
    And...how much did the SP500 ended at after 15 years = 6/1/2008?
    418% which includes the 50% loss that happened as you noted above, but wait, since 2010 I have been posting why you should invest in US LC tilting growth, SPY has been an easy choice but you could also invest some in QQQ. If you invested in QQQ you ended at 934% (https://schrts.co/zTCFZQSB)
  • Looks like most everything was up today.
    ”Let's ask the obvious easy question: if you held just the SP500 for your stock portion (based on Bogle+Buffet) have you done well YTD + in the last 3-5-10-15 years?”
    The S&P 500 lost approximately 56.8% of its value between October 2007 and March 2009, according to the historical performance data. This significant decline was a result of the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. (Credit: Brave Search AI summarizer)
    Hey big guy - Every dollar you held in your S&P 500 index fund in October 2007 was worth 43 cents 16 months later. Sound like fun?