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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Inflation heats up
    Inflation is the delta to new price levels. When inflation "inflates prices", prices of things often remain at these new price levels until the next round of inflation deltas prices higher.
    The 70's saw inflation step up over and over again. That was difficult on the economy (and the people who operated within it).
    Longer term it's these new sticky "higher price levels" we have to contend with and struggle to afford.
    Workers:
    Wage inflation can help us keep pace with these new higher prices, but technology (and it's deflationary efficiencies) can negatively impact jobs and wages which might be the very thing 25- 65 year old workers don't need to help them keep pace with inflation.
    Seniors:
    Seniors often have nothing but there nest egg to crack over inflation (higher prices). Taking risk in the market or owning/renting real estate is challenging for senior, but may be some of their best options to fight inflation.
  • Inflation heats up
    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge moved even higher in December, driven largely by rising energy prices as well as food. However, a closely watched measurement of underlying inflation trends indicated some progress in the fight to rein in price hikes.
    The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.6% in December from the year before, heating up from November’s 2.4% increase, according to new Commerce Department data released Friday.
    On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% as compared to 0.1% in November.
    https://cnn.com/2025/01/31/economy/us-pce-inflation-consumer-spending-december/index.html#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve's%20preferred%20inflation,to%20rein%20in%20price%20hikes.
    Food price is rising in our area with eggs at $10/dozen, and the supply is limited. FED will likely to keep the rate high and longer through 2025.
  • discrepancy I cannot figure out
    Brokerages use the IRS Method, so the info is also useful for tax-loss harvesting (TLH). When they also provide account return info, they do it in the way investors would calculate TR. I don't see why one would bother going through extra steps @linter mentioned to mess with the brokerage set up.
    As an example, suppose you bought a fund for $100, it paid $5 in distribution that you reinvested, and its price after 12 months was $102.
    The IRS Method would add $5 distribution to your cost basis (because you will be paying tax on that), so your new cost basis is $105 and your potential loss on sale would be 102/105 = 0.9714, or -2.86%. This is NOT your total-return (TR) but indicates your potential tax-loss.
    But as an investor, your potential gain on sale would be 102/100 = 1.02, or +2%. That's more like your TR.
    As mentioned previously, M* has a setting for both ways, while brokerages use the IRS Method by default.
  • Schwab/TDA 24x5 updates
    1099 delays are most likely due to how long it takes the funds/companies you hold in an account take to report. So the fact that someone else got a form from your brokerage means little. They may not have anything their account that reports slowly.
    For example, I received a 1099 for one brokerage account at Fidelity on Jan 25th. I didn't receive a 1099 for another Fidelity brokerage account until Feb 8th. Fidelity said that it was waiting on info from a money market fund in that account. A Fidelity money market fund!
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (02/12/25)
    The State of the Markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 Topics
    00:29 Stocks
    09:41 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    10:28 Bonds/Fed
    16:37 Real Estate/Housing
    20:50 Commodities
    24:19 Currencies
    26:50 Crypto
    31:08 Intermarket
    33:56 Economy
    Video
    Blog
  • The Problem Explained: Never Too Much
    relatedly:
    Springtime for Scammers
    Financial predation now has friends in high places
    Paul Krugman
    Feb 11
    Just over two years ago Wells Fargo agreed to pay $3.7 billion — $1.7 billion in penalties and $2 billion in damages — to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. As the New York Times report put it, the payments were
    to settle claims that it engaged in an array of banking violations over the last decade that harmed millions of consumers
    The Times went on to explain:
    The consumer protection bureau said Wells Fargo did not record customer payments on home and auto loans properly, wrongfully repossessed some borrowers’ cars and homes and charged overdraft fees even when customers had enough money to cover purchases they made with their bank cards.
    This settlement followed earlier scandals at Wells Fargo, notably the “cross-selling scandal” in which, among other things, bank employees opened as many as 2 million accounts in customers’ names without their authorization. Altogether the bank has paid $6.2 billion in penalties since 2016.
    Overall, according to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who conceived of CFPB, the bureau “has returned over $21 billion to families cheated by Wall Street.”
    But now the agency that won those settlements has been effectively abolished. On Monday Russell Vought, the architect of Project 2025, the new director of the Office of Management and Budget and now CFPB’s acting head, sent the email above to all of the agency’s staff telling them to stay away from the office and do no work.
    What’s this about? Let’s start by asking why CFPB was created.
    The truth is that defending oneself against financial fraud is hard work. Do you carefully go through your bank statement every month, looking for possible unjustified fees? I know a few people who do, but most of us have too much else going on in our lives. When you take out a car loan, or invest for your retirement, do you go over the fine print with a magnifying glass, making sure you understand everything? Probably not. People have children to raise, jobs to do, lives to live. Cognitive overload is a real thing, and it’s worse the further down the income scale you go — the cognitive burden of poverty has been extensively documented.
    So what we do, most of the time, is trust financial institutions to be relatively honest, if only to protect their reputations. And we expect government regulators to step in when financial players abuse that trust.
    What we learned in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was that much of this trust had been misplaced. Corporate cultures in the financial industry came to prioritize short-run profits over long-term reputation. Deregulation and lax regulation permitted widespread abuses. Most notably, the boom in subprime lending led to many families being sold financial products they didn’t understand, with lower-income borrowers receiving the worst treatment. As the late Edward Gramlich, a Federal Reserve official who tried in vain to warn his colleagues about the dangers, wrote:
    Why are the most risky loan products sold to the least sophisticated borrowers? The question answers itself — the least sophisticated borrowers are probably duped into taking these products.
    But why create a new agency to limit these abuses? Don’t we already have bank regulators? Yes, but these regulators are primarily focused on securing the stability of the financial system. Protecting consumers from fraud is at best an afterthought.
    Warren’s insight was that protecting consumers required creating a separate agency with its own institutional imperatives. And she was right: By any reasonable standard, CFPB has been an outstanding success story.
    Why, then, rush to shutter the agency? By the way, this action, like much of what the Trump administration is doing, is almost surely illegal. It probably also won’t surprise you to learn that DOGE appears to have illegally been given access to much of the agency’s data.
    Well, it’s illuminating to read the section on abolishing CFPB in Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership. According to the Mandate,
    the agency has been assailed by critics as a shakedown mechanism to provide unaccountable funding to leftist nonprofits
    Notice the careful wording: The document doesn’t assert that CFPB actually is a “shakedown mechanism” (which might have led to a lawsuit) but merely that “critics” have made that accusation. And if you follow the footnotes, the assault by critics appears to consist solely of three opinion pieces, one in the New York Post, one in the Wall Street Journal and one in Investors’ Business Daily.
    Incidentally, that Investors’ Business Daily article accuses CFPB of funneling money to “radical Acorn-style pressure groups.” Does anyone not deeply mired in the fever swamps of right-wing conspiracy theory even remember what Acorn — a political association that was disbanded in 2010 — was?
    Overall, Project 2025’s attack on the CFPB bears a family resemblance to Elon Musk’s claim that USAID is a “viper’s nest of radical-left Marxists who hate America.” It’s a bit milder, but equally absurd, and is clearly not the real reason for killing the agency.
    So what is the real reason? It seems fairly obvious. CFPB was created to protect Americans from financial predation, and has done a very good job of doing so. But now we have government of, by and for financial predators. Trump has famously left behind a trail of bankruptcies and unpaid contractors, and is furiously grifting even now. Musk has faced multiple lawsuits from vendors and former employees over unpaid debts.
    And let’s not forget that crypto, which has gained a lot of influence with this administration, has yet to find a real-world use case other than money laundering.
    So the best way to explain the sudden closure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as I see it, is as part of an effort to make predatory finance great again.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 7 February 2025, reflecting metrics thru January. Flows remain through 31 January.
  • Interview With George Gatch, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset Management - Barron’s
    The following link may work for a limited time - or may not work at all. It’s a thoughtful interview. Some relevant excerpts in case the link fails to work.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-investing-risk-jp-morgan-asset-management-e7e3e686?st=quL7MV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
    On Staying Invested: “Staying invested is the best strategy. If you missed the 10 best days in the past 20 years, you would have cut your return in half.”
    Best Opportunities Now: “We see opportunities to broaden toward value in large-cap stocks and across all sectors. And, we see opportunities in mid-caps relative to large-caps …. Fixed income, on a relative basis, is more attractive than equities. We see opportunities in high-yield, where yields are topping 7%, and in securitized credit.”
    Current Environment: ”There is room in every portfolio for some position in liquidity. In a market like this, we are going to have higher levels of volatility. Having dry powder to redeploy, as you see more volatility and trade-offs, is good.”
    Next Frontier: ”Multi-asset is one of the next frontiers that hasn’t been fully offered to investors in ETF structures. It is difficult for individual investors to make decisions about relative valuations of asset classes in periods of high volatility.”
    On Bitcoin & Crypto: ”Bitcoin ETFs and cryptocurrency generally have high levels of volatility. Bitcoin is four times the volatility of the S&P 500 index. There is no income and no intrinsic value, and we don’t see how they would fit into a diversified long-term strategy.”
    Article Title: ”Investing Offers a Free Lunch, Says This Wall Street Veteran. Take It.”
    Published in Barron’s February 10, 2025 issue
  • Trump to launch ETFs
    ”President Trump, who has lent his name to everything from steaks and wine to cryptocurrencies, now wants to sell you investment funds. Trump's social-media company, Trump Media & Technology DJT V V, said Thursday that it has applied for trademarks on a series of exchange-traded funds and separately managed accounts. The financial products, which include funds labeled "Made in America" and "Energy Independence," will launch later this year, Trump Media said.”
    Excerpted from: “Trump Wants to Manage Your Investment Portfolio”
    The Wall Street Journal - February 9, 2025
  • USFR Distribution yield vs 30 day SEC yield.
    There's not much I can add beyond what Yogi wrote. Though the term the Wisdom Tree uses on its page is "Distribution Yield", not current yield. The former typically means the average dividend payments over the last twelve months, i.e. TTM.
    Checking what Wisdom Tree actually means would entail adding up the 12 divs, figuring out what price to divide by, and doing the calculation. Likely the divisor is the price on the day of calculation (2/7/25), but what price? High, low, last, average of high and low? How does that divisor compare with the divisor used for SEC yield?
    Sometimes the distribution yield is lower than the SEC yield, sometimes higher. On May 24, 2024, the distribution yield was 12 basis points higher than the SEC yield (5.42% vs 5.30%). Here's the USFR page from May 25th.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240525082254/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/etfs/fixed-income/usfr
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    The platform fees at Schwab are negotiable, I think. This subject has been discussed on here repeatedly. I do not know how Schwab decides, but I have never paid them, as long as I ask beforehand. Then the rep actually does the trade and there is no fee. It could be because I am a customer from the days when Schwab advertised no fee on mutual fund purchases. Whatever, I bought DODIX last month and did not pay the 7495 platform fee.
  • The Problem Explained: Never Too Much
    Part III: The deeper possibility, unthinkable to Wolf, is that free-market capitalism and liberal democracy may have nothing to do with each other—or may even contradict each other. Wolf calls economics and politics “symbiotic twins,” which shows a poor grasp of both symbiosis and zygosity; he goes on to describe capitalism and democracy—specific versions of economics and politics—as inhabiting a “difficult marriage.” But they proceed from entirely different premises. Democracy is predicated on formal, substantive equality: one person, one vote. Capitalism is not, and is incompatible with substantive equality, because it is composed of workers and owners, success and failure, rich and poor. Capitalism is about self-interest and private gain; democracy is about public interest and civic responsibility. Capitalism’s moral justifications revolve around deservedness, efficiency, and individual risk-taking, none of which are important justifications for democracy. Capitalism is predicated on atomized individuals, democracy on shared publics.
    Even the idea of freedom, which Wolf takes as essential to both, is radically different in each case. Private property, which is at the core of capitalism, is fundamentally opposed to unfettered freedom, because property involves the ability to exclude all other human beings from some part of the world. I am not free to live in your house, or even perhaps to walk across your land. I am not free to eat your dinner, even if I am starving and you intend to throw it away—even if I cooked it. Hence the basic insight of Amartya Sen and Jean Drèze that famines can take place without anyone’s property rights being violated. Freedom in capitalist markets entails the freedom of property owners to use and dispose of their property, including the freedom of business owners to run their businesses as little dictatorships, not as representative polities. You do not elect your boss, let alone vote on your wages or working hours. The political scientists Corey Robin and Alex Gourevitch have argued that workplaces are fundamentally places of unfreedom—many workers do not even have enough individual liberty to decide when to go to the bathroom without their bosses’ permission.
    The notion that capitalism and democracy are mutually harmonious is a relic of cold war ideology. Contrary to Wolf’s belief, nineteenth-century capitalism did not widely overlap with democracy: the British Empire and the United States were not places with egalitarian universal suffrage. Proponents of market liberalism from John Locke onward worried constantly that universal suffrage would simply mean poor people voting to expropriate the property of the wealthy. Little wonder that nineteenth-century opponents of capitalism referred to themselves as “social democrats.” They understood socialism as a project for expanding democracy beyond the artificially curtailed political sphere to the social and the economic. The enthusiasm with which the United States overthrew democratically elected leaders with even moderately socialist leanings in places like Guatemala, Iran, and Chile in the cold war era also seems to suggest that free markets were quite compatible with political dictatorship well into the recent past.
    The marketization and globalization of the world since the 1970s is often referred to as the era of neoliberalism. The word “neoliberalism” appears once in Wolf’s book, to refer to how “freer markets” are described by their opponents. Scholars like Quinn Slobodian, Dara Orenstein, Amy Offner, Sam Wetherell, and Laleh Khalili have detailed at length the ways that neoliberal economic policies have worked to insulate property ownership from democratic politics in the postcolonial age. They have shown the reliance of globalized production on a variety of economic zones with laws, regulations, and systems of accountability different from those of their host polities and separated from democratic accountability. They have also followed the enthusiasm that free-market fundamentalists like Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman had for apartheid South Africa, colonial Hong Kong, Singapore, and other places that had little relationship to democracy or individual freedom.
    If capitalism and democracy are not fundamentally dependent on each other, then there is no crisis “of” them as a coherent system. The capitalism part seems to be doing just fine. The problem is the threat that unfettered capitalism poses to democracy, and specifically, the inability of the ideology of political liberalism to contain that threat.
    As the political theorist Brian Judge argues in his superb book Democracy in Default (2024), modern liberalism has constituted itself around a denial of the need for distributive conflicts. Instead of open conflict over resources and rewards (which is common to other forms of political ideology), liberalism puts its faith in things like education, technology, expertise, and, ultimately, market forces to indefinitely postpone those conflicts. As he puts it, “‘The market’ is a discursive construct operating within liberalism that reconciles the inherent tension between private property and universal consent.”
    For decades now, the ideology of free-market liberalism has obfuscated the ongoing distributive conflicts of the world, but it has not blunted the material suffering of the people on the losing end. Since the 2008 crisis, the reality of ruthless distributive conflict has become impossible to ignore, but the failure of market liberalism to reconcile political equality and economic inequality has produced a global crisis of legitimacy and a growing constituency amenable to antiliberal figures like Trump, Orbán, Modi, and Bolsonaro. In his inability or unwillingness to see these contradictions, Wolf cannot reason his way out of the exact set of ideologies and policies that produced the crisis in the first place.
    The substance of this book demands one kind of review, but it is not just any book on the predicaments of our moment. It was written by Martin Wolf, one of the most prominent advocates for the neoliberal transformation of the world. The book opens with the statement (drawn from his acceptance speech for a lifetime achievement award) that Wolf’s “opinions have altered as the world has unfolded.”
    Rereading Why Globalization Works in light of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism does not reveal many alterations of opinion. Both books have a preface entitled “Why I Wrote This Book,” and both prefaces set the stage with the story of Wolf’s parents fleeing the Nazis, which led them to cherish democracy and individual liberty. Both books maintain that states and markets are necessary for each other, and specifically that liberal democracy and market globalization are symbiotic, albeit also in constant tension. Both rely on a sketchy historical narrative involving canonical figures like Aristotle, Plato, Hobbes, and Locke to back up the claim that private property is the fundamental condition for political liberty. Both books conceive of Wolf’s opponents as a broad antimarket constituency of ill-informed utopian dreamers who would immediately become icy Stalinists upon gaining power.
    Wolf has changed his mind on three main subjects: corporations, finance, and inequality. In 2004 he described critics of multinational corporate power as engaging in “a collective hysteria” and “a series of paranoid fantasies.” While he still thinks that “the ability and willingness of multinational companies to move their capital and know-how across frontiers” has on balance been a positive thing, he now concedes that it has been disadvantageous to workers. In 2004 he thought the purpose of corporations was to add value by using cheap resources (including people) otherwise outside of the global market economy. He now thinks that corporate liability needs to be strengthened and corporate political influence has gone too far, whereas in 2004 he argued that corporations had far less power than governments and that they merely represented one set of influencing forces among many. In 2004 he agreed that the frequency of financial crises in the preceding decade had imposed large costs and political setbacks on the project of globalization. But despite many blunders and painful experiences, he maintained that “emerging-market economies should ultimately plan to integrate into the global capital markets.” Today he notes that “the financial sector wastes both human and real resources. It is in large part a rent-extraction machine.” In 2004 he acknowledged that inequality had “apparently risen” in high-income countries, but thought that globalization’s contribution to this trend was unclear, and its main consequence had been poverty reduction. Today he notes that from 1993 to 2015 the top one percent captured over half of all increases in real pre-tax incomes, and he concedes that wealth is a source of power, through political influence, media ownership, philanthropy, and so on.
  • The Problem Explained: Never Too Much
    https://nybooks.com/articles/2025/01/16/never-too-much-the-crisis-of-democratic-capitalism-wolf/
    Never Too Much’
    Trevor Jackson
    If globalization has allowed elites to remove themselves from democratic accountability and regulation, is there any path toward a just economy?
    January 16, 2025 issue
    Reviewed:
    The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism
    by Martin Wolf
    Penguin Press, 474 pp., $30.00
    Illustration by Matt Dorfman
    Something has gone terribly wrong. In his 2004 book Why Globalization Works, the economics journalist Martin Wolf wrote that “liberal democracy is the only political and economic system capable of generating sustained prosperity and political stability.” He was articulating the elite consensus of the time, a belief that liberal democratic capitalism was not only a coherent form of social organization but in fact the best one, as demonstrated by the West’s victory in the cold war. He went on to argue that critics who “complain that markets encourage immorality and have socially immoral consequences, not least gross inequality,” were “largely mistaken,” and he concluded that a market economy was the only means for “giving individual human beings the opportunity to seek what they desire in life.”
    Wolf wrote those words midway through a four-decade global expansion of markets. Throughout the 1980s in Britain, the United States, and France, governments led by Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, and François Mitterrand set about privatizing public assets and services, cutting welfare state provisions, and deregulating markets. At the same time, a set of ten policies known as the “Washington Consensus” (because they were shared by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the US Treasury) brought privatization, liberalization, and globalization to Latin America following a series of sovereign debt crises. In the 1990s a similar set of policies, then known as “shock therapy,” suddenly converted the formerly Communist economies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union to free markets. Around the Global South, and especially in the rapidly industrializing countries of East Asia after the 1997 financial crisis, “structural adjustment” policies that were conditions for IMF bailouts again brought liberalization, privatization, and fiscal discipline. The same policies were enforced on the European periphery after 2009, in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, again, either as conditions for bailouts or through EU fiscal restrictions and restrictive European Central Bank policy. Today there are far more markets in far more aspects of human life than ever before.
    But the sustained prosperity and political stability that these policies were meant to create have proved elusive. The global economy since the 1980s has been riven by repeated financial crises. Latin America endured a “lost decade” of economic growth. The 1990s in Russia were worse than the Great Depression had been in Germany and the United States. The austerity and high-interest-rate policies after the 1997 East Asia crisis restored financial stability but at the cost of domestic recessions, and contributed to political instability and the repudiation of incumbent parties in Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea, as they did again across Europe after 2009–2010. Global economic growth rates in the era of globalization have been about half what they were in the less globalized postwar decades. Around the world, violent racist demagogues keep winning elections, and although they all seem very happy with the idea of private property, they are openly hostile to the rule of law, political liberalism, individual freedom, and other ostensible preconditions and cultural accompaniments to market economies. Both democracy and globalization seem to be in retreat in practice as well as in ideological popularity. Or, as Wolf writes in his new book, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism:
    Our economy has destabilized our politics and vice versa. We are no longer able to combine the operations of the market economy with stable liberal democracy. A big part of the reason for this is that the economy is not delivering the security and widely shared prosperity expected by large parts of our societies. One symptom of this disappointment is a widespread loss of confidence in elites.
    What happened?
    Martin Wolf is probably the most influential economics commentator in the English-speaking world. He has been chief editorial writer for the Financial Times since 1987 and their lead economics analyst since 1996. Before that he trained in economics at Oxford and worked at the World Bank starting in 1971, including three years as senior economist and a year spent working on the first World Development Report in 1978. This is his fifth book since moving to the Financial Times. The blurbs and acknowledgments are stuffed with central bankers, financiers, Nobel laureates, and celebrity academics. The bibliography contains ninety-six references to the author himself.
    Wolf’s diagnosis is impossible to dispute: “Neither politics nor the economy will function without a substantial degree of honesty, trustworthiness, self-restraint, truthfulness, and loyalty to shared political, legal, and other institutions.” But, he observes, those values have run into crisis all over the world, and, especially since about 2008,
    people feel even more than before that the country is not being governed for them, but for a narrow segment of well-connected insiders who reap most of the gains and, when things go wrong, are not just shielded from loss but impose massive costs on everybody else.
    He describes in detail the mistaken policies of austerity in the US and Europe, the rise of a wasteful and extractive financial sector, the atomization and immiseration of formerly unionized workers, the pervasiveness of tax avoidance and evasion, and the general accumulation of decades of elite failure.
    Most people have accurately realized “that these failings were the result not just of stupidity but of the intellectual and moral corruption of decision-makers and opinion formers at all levels—in the financial sector, regulatory bodies, academia, media, and politics.” And thus his conclusion: “Without ethical elites, democracy becomes a demagogic spectacle hiding a plutocratic reality. That also is its death.” Forty years of the corruption of our plutocratic elites has now led to what he views as an alarming populist reaction. Voters, especially young ones in the core democratic capitalist countries, have lost faith in the power of markets and liberalism. Serious international rivals have also emerged, in the forms of “demagogic authoritarian capitalism” in places like Turkey and Russia, and “bureaucratic authoritarian capitalism” in China, and Wolf views these systems, unlike earlier systemic rivals like communism, as serious threats. Liberal democratic capitalism is in danger both from within and without.
    It’s a grim picture, and one that nearly any reader of any political persuasion can agree with. But for Wolf, these epochal global crises do not require radical change. The motto of the book (as he puts it) is “Never too much,” and he maintains that “reform is not revolution, but its opposite.” He is consistently contemptuous of any sort of structural change, quick to invoke despotism as the inevitable outcome of utopian thinking and to cite Edmund Burke on the inhumanity and impossibility of rebuilding society around first principles.
    Instead, he prefers “piecemeal social engineering,” an idea that he adopts from the unconventional libertarian philosopher Karl Popper, and that he takes to mean “change targeted at remedying specific ills.” His targeted solutions for the specific ills that constitute the global crisis of democratic capitalism run from the anodyne to the surreal. Examples of the former include the idea that “public sector cash-flow accounts should be complemented with worked-out public sector balance sheets and accrual accounts,” or the need for corporations to have “excellent accounting standards” and diligent, independent auditors. Both are very reasonable proposals, and perhaps, at the margin, they really would erode the grip of plutocracy.
    Others are standard repressive-technocrat fare. He rejects free higher education because too many people would go to college, imposing too high a fiscal burden on governments, and he doubts whether taxpayers should have to guarantee tertiary education as a universal right. He thinks there should be “controls on immigration that recognize the potential economic gains while also being politically acceptable and effective.” He thinks that defined-benefit retirement plans should be replaced by large-scale defined-contribution plans run by trustees who “would be allowed to adjust pensions in light of investment performance.” It is difficult to imagine many people democratically choosing a system in which unelected trustees could cut their pensions when the stock market does poorly, and there are good reasons to think that education is advantageous to both capitalism and democracy.
  • Promised 25% Tariffs on Steel / Aluminum Rattle Commodities, Currencies and Stock Futures
    One of the appeals of public sector work is that a tradeoff for lower pay is expectation of stability and longevity (assuming good performance) barring budget cuts.
    Not sudden layoff in the middle of doing really important work due to destructive whim and lies.
    I myself have had perhaps 5 public sector jobs, (only) one of them partly federal, and the only time I got laid off was due to budget cuts, and the event was sudden and the terms ungenerous, but that too is part of the deal. And the work I was in the middle of doing was important (legislation reform).
  • Promised 25% Tariffs on Steel / Aluminum Rattle Commodities, Currencies and Stock Futures
    Initially, “60%” traffics on China was imposed without specifying which goods. Then it went to “10%”. Now is “25%” on steel and aluminum. In the meantime, China is taking their case to World Trade Organization. In his previous administration, tariffs imposed on China resulted in small impact, and both sides saved faces in the end.
    What is ironic is that Canada is the exporter to US on steel and aluminum, whereas China is a much smaller importer on these two metals. China has been eying to cut out all rare earth metals to US, which are important components of manufacturing high performance chipsets. We will se how this game plays out.
    Agree that these tariffs are nothing more than empty threats or negotiating tactics to strong-arm the country.
  • CFPB put to sleep
    While traditional Republicans (if there are any left) might relish the shuttering of the CFPB on principle (less regulation of financial institutions), Musk has a more immediate objective.
    Senator Ed Markey (via X, formerly known as Twitter) writes:
    Elon wants the CFPB gone so tech billionaires can profit from apps, like X, that offer bank-like services but don’t follow financial laws that keep people’s money safe. Musk wants to use the government to put more in his pockets. This is a blatant conflict of interest. https://t.co/i3QdKC2Xjj [NPR Feb 7]
  • CFPB put to sleep
    FWIW, there's not a theological (belief in a god) or even religious (broader beliefs and practices) requirement in the Constitution, including the presidential oath of office.
    "So help me God" is not in the official oath and was likely not added by any of the first 26 presidents.
    https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/section-1/clause-8/
    https://progressive.org/latest/god-out-of-presidential-oath-seidel-210119/
    Swearing (or affirming) with a bible is likewise not required. Teddy Roosevelt did not use a bible in 1901. Nor did John Quincy Adams when he took the oath:
    Although he was a devout Christian, John Quincy Adams took his presidential oath upon a “Volume of Laws” because, he wrote in a March 1825 diary entry, it was the Constitution he swore to preserve, protect and defend.
    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-jan-18-na-inaug-religion18-story.html
    There you have it. Trump swore by the Constitution. Yeah, right.
    Another bit of trivia. The VP oath does include the words "So help me God", but that's statutory and also not part of the Constitution.
    https://www.inaugural.senate.gov/vice-presidents-swearing-in-ceremony/
  • Dodge & Cox Leadership Transition
    Dana Emery, Chair and CEO of Dodge & Cox, will retire on 12/31/2025.
    Dodge & Cox has thoughtfully planned for this transition.
    David Hoeft will become the firm's Chair while continuing to serve as CIO.
    Roger Kuo will succeed Ms. Emery as CEO and Chair of the fund board while continuing to serve as President.
    Hoeft has been with Dodge & Cox for 31 years while Kuo has been with the firm for 26 years.
    https://www.dodgeandcox.com/individual-investor/us/en/about-us/news-and-firm-updates/2025/dodge-and-cox-leadership-and-investment-committee-updates.html