I don't know how much this plays in, but in early July, President Biden announced his assault on monopolies. As such, he mentioned mergers/acquisitions. Since Merger arb funds started underperforming a few weeks before this announcement, assuredly there are additional reasons for the decline?
Following are some details from an article from Politico:
Mergers: The order would urge the FTC and DOJ to update guidance on how they review mergers, potentially pulling back on guidelines the Trump administration approved last year. Those guidelines focused on so-called vertical mergers, which involve companies that are not direct competitors but are in the same supply chain, and which have typically attracted little scrutiny from regulators. The FTC’s two Democrats opposed the Trump-era update, calling it overly deferential to business.
Changes to those guidelines could affect several pending deals, including Amazon’s proposed purchase of MGM Studios and UnitedHealth Group’s deal to buy Change Healthcare.
The order will also recommend that federal banking regulators work with the Justice Department to update guidance on bank deals. The DOJ partners with the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to vet bank mergers, but hasn’t changed how it looks at potential tie-ups since 1995.

Maybe click bait
Don't think dji >10% down/haircut
May sideways for short term, hard to day

Interesting path these two funds took over the last 34 years (VFINX verses PRWCX):
Compare

I ran these two funds (I changed VOO to VFINX) to allow PV (portfoliovisualizer) to go back to 2002. I included VWINX and PRWCX to further compare a withdrawal strategy over the last 19 years. I used a 6% withdrawal rate (pretty aggressive) for each of the 19 years to compare the income generation each fund would provide and their suitability as a long term investment for capital preservation and income.
Interesting results (click on Comparison between):
Comparison between VFINX, VTI, PRWCX, and VWINX
My observations:
Comparing these four funds from 2002-2021 provides insight into why allocation funds are so beneficial for both income and capital preservation. Both VWINX and PRWCX navigated the Tech Bubble and the Great Recession preserving capital while at the same time providing greater yearly withdrawal amounts than either of the etfs.
It took 14 years for both (VOO) VFINX and VTI to overtake VWINX. From 2002 - 2016 VWINX outperformed VTI and VOO (VFINX) on a rolling return basis. PRWCX accomplished this feat every year (2002-2021) providing both more income per year as well as higher yearly portfolio balances.
Future Consideration:
From the perspective of both income and capital preservation, would an investor be less harmed (opportunity cost risk verses sequence of return risk) owning VWINX verses an Total Equity Market Index?
At the start of retirement or the start of one's investment career, I would consider owning an allocation fund such as VWINX or PRWCX and consider reallocationg into VOO or VTI when markets periodically sell off.

By Jim Sloan, SA contributor.
Summary
° VOO is based on the S&P 500 and VTI on the Total Stock Market, adding the 22% of stocks not included in the 500; long term they have performed similarly.
° Both are market cap weighted and heavily tilted toward the 10 largest stocks which are 28.5% of VOO and 23.4% of VTI.
° Jack Bogle preferred VTI because it contained "everything." Warren Buffett put the S&P 500 in his will for his wife, perhaps because it is tilted toward large cap growth.
° Longer term charts show similar returns while a one year chart clearly shows the outperformance of smaller caps, thus VTI, starting September 2020 with recognition of economic growth.
° There are several quirks in the way these index ETFs are put together, plus some interesting differences in statistical metrics and industry composition; VOO is more tax efficient.
ARTICLE

Hi @David_Snowball , Nice to read that you two were apparently able to unwind some accumulated stress (that was the cracking sound one can hear at the base of the skull). Nice to also read that Will has a Roth IRA. I've pushed this investment with many I know; for their children and/or grandchildren, for several years.
I've placed this calculator again from a previous write. To the best of my knowledge, it is accurate.
--- The below Saving and Investing Calculator (new style, July, 2021) has some preset numbers I'd placed previous to help others with minor children envision the power of compounding to encourage them to help their children start a Roth Minor IRA from monies from part time work, etc. All of the values set now may be changed to whatever is suitable for you. You'll see the initial investment value and yearly contributions are small. I did not enter a future tax calculation, as hopefully; the Roth still won't be taxed. Also, I used 7% as an annualized investment return.....not, too hot, not too cold. Anyway, play with the numbers, if this would be of benefit. A few of the other tabs above for budgeting, etc.; may be of value, too; although this is an AARP site. :) ALSO: The calculator is set with Will's numbers, although at a 7% annualized.
NOTE: the 7% return in the calculator is of course an unknown going forward, but a reference point of one decent balanced fund, FBALX ,has an annualized return from its inception in 1986 of 9.3%. So, these have been and may continue to be achievable numbers. ALSO, read the descriptions below the calculator area.
Saving and Investing Calculator
Take care,
Catch

Are the Fed's efforts to buy bonds... bonds that I assume invest in the growth the economy... an effort to grow the tax base? Don't jobs and wages need to keep up with both the Fed's bond buying and Congressional Debt expansion?
Seems wage growth hasn't kept up with all of this debt expansion.
Fed Chairman Bullard's comments on wage growth, interest rates and future bond buying:

For more than a decade before the pandemic "economic growth was slow and not very volatile and inflation in tandem was slow and not very volatile," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. "This environment is a very different one where you have upset the global equilibrium...The reverberations will continue, and you will have a lot more volatility than you are used to."
On the plus side that could mean a run of productivity- enhancing developments that keep U.S. growth and wages rising fast; the risk is higher inflation that could upend the Fed's current expectation that price pressures will ease on their own and allow for continued loose monetary policy.

hawkish-bullard-sees-more-volatile-economic-regime-emerging

@Mav123. I don't see MFO going away anytime soon.

@Mav123. I like the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) idea. Will add to list. Should not take too long. If you are a subscriber (or become one) I'll add a month to your subscription for the suggestion. Our custom for good feedback!

A little preliminary food for thought:
The Winners and Losers

As the saying goes, economists have predicted five of the last three recessions:
https://advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/05/06/david-rosenberg-the-consensus-is-wrong-about-stocks-bonds-and-inflation

The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
The Toronto-based Rosenberg started his own economic consulting firm in January 2020, Rosenberg Research & Associates, after working a decade as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates. He was the opening speaker at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, hosted by John Mauldin.
Before you place too much weight on Rosenberg’s analysis, recall that he delivered the opening keynote at this conference last year, when he proclaimed that U.S. equity market bulls were in “fantasyland.” He was wrong. The return for the S&P 500 for the last year was 56.25%.
The “fiscal juice” from stimulus checks and the re-opening of the economy are outstripping supply, creating temporary inflation. Supply will catch up when demand subsides as the effect from the stimulus wanes, according to Rosenberg. That will happen before the end of the year.
When the effect of stimulus checks expired last year, GDP declined by 2.5%. We will see a repeat of that this year, according to Rosenberg.

+1 Andy Also using ESGV for some SPY exposure . Invested in CTFAX at Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard.

andy At least TMSRX is outperforming MERFX down (1.03%) . Lost confidence in MERFX and have been redeploying assets elsewhere, including VARAX BAMBX PSMM and JEPI .

Older Episodes:
July 30, 2021 Episode:

His Marketwatch Columns:
https://marketwatch.com/author/lawrence-a-cunningham

Apparently the TMSRX crew has had more misses than hits lately; ytd is down to +1.13%.

@carew388. +1

But automatic investing is available at Fidelity, $5/transaction, and you can stop after one transaction. One could purchase OSTIX at Vanguard ($20) or Merrill Edge ($19.95), transfer it in kind to Fidelity (no transfer fee), and continue investing there.

Don’t forget that selling is free at Fidelity whereas it costs $20 to sell. There are other subtle differences. Institutional shares of Pimco funds require $25K while $1M at other brokerages.

If one is investing from an income stream, dollar cost averaging is about the only way to do it. You can't invest the money before you have it. But if one is sitting on a pile of cash, on average (meaning if one is in this situation multiple times), one comes out better by investing the lump sum up immediately.
https://indexacapital.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/dollar-cost-averaging-just-means-taking-risk-later-vanguard-2012.pdf
However, the variation of outcomes with lump sum investing is larger than if one invests a bit at a time. One either wins or loses, as opposed to having a whole range of possible outcomes in the middle. Because people are risk averse, they're willing to take the lower expected value than run the risk that they might lose bigger by investing it all at the wrong time.
With respect to axioms and aphorisms, how about: Take care of the pence for the pounds will take care of themselves? Or the more familiar American currency version: Watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.
Vanguard used to offer a dollar cost averaging service for transaction fee funds where one could set up periodic investments, min $100, min two investments, for $3/purchase. At that rate each incremental $1000 investment in OSTIX would break even in about a year. That would be assuming the shares were not later sold, or were sold as part of a larger transaction, thus incurring no additional cost to sell.
There is even a January 25, 2021 Vanguard commission and fee schedule claiming that Vanguard still offers this service. But the service is not shown on the HTML version of the fee schedule. And this article on Vanguard automatic investing has a screen shot saying that automatic investments are only allowed on Vanguard funds. (I see the same thing in my own account.) So I believe this Vanguard feature is defunct.
But automatic investing is available at Fidelity, $5/transaction, and you can stop after one transaction. One could purchase OSTIX at Vanguard ($20) or Merrill Edge ($19.95), transfer it in kind to Fidelity (no transfer fee), and continue investing there.
A fair amount of work. But depending on how you value your time, it could still be worth the effort. For as you put it, it saves nickels and dimes. The ability to add cheaply to lower cost (institutional) shares is one of the reasons I use Fidelity.
There are often obscure ways to "watch the pennies" if one looks hard enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/01/delta-variant-surge-will-crush-reopening-stocks-david-rosenberg.html
Delta variant surge will crush reopening stocks, longtime market bear David Rosenberg suggests
Investors may want to start August by lightening up on the reopening trades.
Longtime market bear David Rosenberg warns surging Covid-19 delta variant cases paired with the culmination of fiscal stimulus will crush stocks tied to the economic recovery.
Maybe down 15 20%?
How low can you go
How many TUMS can you bellied down??

I plan on DCA'ing into ATPAX with amounts under 1k. At this point I can't stomach dropping 5 or 6 figures into a fund/etf at one time, unless it's a ultrashort bond etf like VUSB. These funds are excess cash earning 1 basis point currently.