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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Lots of BS about me. How nice is to post trash without any proof.
    ==============
    @davidrmoran:but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar
    FD: I'm a multimillionaire but not philanthropist or making money posting on seekingalpha.
    =============
    @davidrmoran: plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty.
    FD: why do you think I should pay any penalty? I have special arrangement at Schwab where I have a dedicated trader that buys all the Inst funds for me with no commissions and I can sell these funds within one day (I don't buy funds that have longer mandatory hold). Example: IOFIX,PIMIX. If I don’t buy Inst funds and these funds are not Schwab fund and I sell within 90 days I do pay the $49.95 short term penalty which is nothing compared to the amount I'm making.
    ===============
    @Junkster,
    Your posts have several examples of liars, are you insinuating that I lied too?. I never claimed that I made a very high %, just a pretty good performance with very low SD. Remember, since I retired in 2018, we have enough money to sustain our standard of living for another 40-50 years if our portfolio will make just 4% annually including inflation. Our portfolio is 35+ times our annual expense without our SS. This is why I set up the following goals: make 6% average annually with the lowest SD I can get (preferably under 3) and never lose 3% from any last top. We don’t care about maximizing performance anymore but to meet our specific goals. To do that I use mainly bond mutual funds + several short term trades (hours-days) using stocks/ETF/CEFs/other. The 3 year results are much better than my goals. I never lost more than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years. Below is a copy from my Schwab accounts as of yesterday which is about 95% of our total money. There is no way to achieve these results without being a good trader and why I posted other funds too
    3 year performance/SD...SPY 13.1%/17.7...VBINX (60/40) 10%/11.1....VWIAX (40/60) 7.046.6%/...PIMIX 3.75%/5.6....IOFIX 0.2%/23.7
    My portfolio performance was 9.9% annually for 3 year with SD=2.18
    Below you can see an image of performance as of 10/14/2020 from Schwab. Column 1=one year...Column 2=YTD...Column 3=one year...Column 4=3 years
    image
    Below is the SD for one year and 3 years
    image
  • pump and dump and pump, last Feb
    Disgusting swamp goo.
    I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (here).
    But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    I've looked at PIMIX before. $125B AUM. I stayed away. That's just beyond bloated. Just my preference.
    Although Pimco can manage funds with considerable AUM better than most firms, I agree that PIMIX has become too bloated. The legacy RMBS that helped propel the fund for years are in short supply now and it will be difficult for the fund to take a meaningful position in these securities. Philosophically, I dislike Pimco's record of not closing any funds (to my knowledge) due to excessive AUM.
  • Convergence Market Neutral Fund to liquidate
    Looks like this one never got off the ground.
    - Market Neutral Fund
    - Less than 5 years old.
    - 23.3 M AUM
    - 2.85% ER
    - Down 13% over past year
    - Turnover 290%
    Alternative investing is a tough row to hoe. Thanks for the post @TheShadow
  • The US Stock Market and a Weak Dollar...Is it time to own PRPFX?
    An article from Barron to diversify international stocks when USD weaken,
    Investors should check whether an international fund is hedged against currency fluctuations or not. The hedged funds can protect returns when the dollar strengthens but will underperform when a cheaper dollar gives international assets an extra lift. While hedged and unhedged funds generate similar returns over the long run, in the short term, there can be big differences. Over the past three months, for example, the $49 billion iShares MSCI EAFE exchange-traded fund (EFA) gained 16.2%, while the $2.3 billion iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF (HEFA) returned just 9.9%. “If the dollar continues to weaken, the unhedged funds should do better than the hedged funds,” says Morningstar ETF specialist Alex Bryan.
    https://barrons.com/articles/how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-a-weaker-dollar-51598009400
    May need to see if one can get behind the paywall.
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions

    I know we're getting way off topic for this thread but I was paying $90/mo for Comcast for internet only b/c I didn't need phone or cable, and wouldn't bundle just for the sake of bundling stuff I didn't use and giving them more subscriber counts. I got an offer for FIOS for what's essentially $35/mo for better-quality, symmetrical 100MB internet access (plus a year of Disney+ for free) and I am *very* pleased. At least Verizon worked to earn my business -- unless I callto threaten cancelling, Comcast just expects me to bend over every year (just like SiriusXM does).
    Cable thieves. Don't even..... So, back East, I "bundled" with Comcast. Then I ditched the landline phone--- after an election day in which the phone never stopped ringing from stoopid, useless, worthless, time-wasting goddam political calls. And some were ILLEGAL robo-calls, just recorded messages. The politicians get away with that because in the pertinent laws, they always exempt themselves. ..... So we kept internet and tv. Two of three services. But the BILL did not go down by one-third. Then we killed cable tv. Screw 'em. We were using just one offered service, out of three, previously. But the bill was reduced by only $20.00 or $30.00. Extortionist motherlovers.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    I've looked at PIMIX before. $125B AUM. I stayed away. That's just beyond bloated. Just my preference.
  • Politics and Investing
    Yes, all of that stuff you guys are saying is right. Personally, I prefer to use the Underline to make the link stand out better when embedded in other text.
    Like so: Here is Davids link.
    Thanks for explaining that the link icon is a picture of a link. Had no idea.
  • Politics and Investing
    David: using your original post I've found it easier to select your original message (i.e. increasing disconnect) like you were going to make it bold or italic or whatever and the hit the link icon to past your url into it and hit OK.
    increasing disconnect
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    In USAA's case, their customers are also their shareholders so in sense I should see some of these dollars making improvements at USAA.
    There is an increase in USAA's revenue and thus an addition to its balance sheet. What USAA will do with that money (improvements, premium credits, whatever) is a different question.
    As near as I can tell, the USAA owners are its policy holders, not all its customers. It was formed as a mutual insurance company. Ownership by policy holders is what "mutual insurance" means. USAA seems emphatic in stating that "Use of the term 'member' or 'membership' refers to membership in USAA Membership Services and does not convey any legal or ownership rights in USAA." (Many USAA pages have this footnote.)
    So like Vanguard, only the a subset of its customers - not the brokerage customers - would benefit from the sale.
    See also this page that seems to say that how well the company does determines dividends to (only) insurance policy holders.
    https://communities.usaa.com/t5/Investments-and-Education/How-do-I-buy-stock-in-USAA/qaq-p/160763
  • The US Stock Market and a Weak Dollar...Is it time to own PRPFX?
    Billionaire bond guru Jeff Gundlach seems to be worried about the US Stock market over the next 18 months:
    ‘Within 18 months, it’s going to crack pretty hard. I think that you want to be avoiding it for the time being. When the next big meltdown happens, I think the U.S. is going to be the worst performing market, actually, and that’ll have a lot to do with the dollar weakening.’
    He suggests 25% Gold and 25% Cash...hmmm sounds like PRPFX or your home made EFT version (Cash,GLD,VTI & BND) might get he's nod as well.
    heres-what-one-billionaire-says-investors-should-do-to-prepare
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    IMO Schwab's StreetSmart Edge is lightyears behind TDAmeritrade's ThinkDesktop - plus their Mac 'version' feels like a quirky Java-based browser plugin that's nowhere as polished as ThinkDesktop. SSE reminds me of the hideous OptionsXpress active platform that repeatedly burned me 15 years ago and what led me to ThinkorSwim.
    Until ThinkDesktop gets integrated into the Schwabverse, I'm going to grumble quietly b/c I would do all my stock/option buy/sells in that app versus the website. That said, I'm keeping some $$ at TDA both for account/record access and if I want to active trade or charting using my own indicators/scripts.
    Former Schwab executive here. Trust me, Schwab's goal is to make money: that's a fact, not a criticism. There are many ways to attract clients in order to do that, including fair pricing, responsive customer service, and a superior online experience via the website and brokerage platform. Comparing, for example, Schwab's trading platform with that of Vanguard is an apples-to-oranges, 20th vs. 21st century undertaking. (How it compares to TDA's I don't know.) I'm sure Schwab feels it has already compensated the appropriate parties for its acquisition of TDA accounts. Of course there is a certain tension between Schwab's interests and those of its customers which is why it doesn't offer all of its services for free. That's in the nature of every business. I can't think of any prior Schwab acquisition that resulted in payments to acquired customers.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    I decided to post about bonds since I have been reading about this subject so many times and for several years already.
    The concept is "when rates rise, bonds are doomed".
    So let's test it based on the past. The Fed raised the federal funds rate from 12/2015 at 0.25-0.50 to 12/2018 at 2.25-2.5%, see (link)
    This looks like a pretty good possible scenario starting in 2-3 years. Let's see the effect on different fund categories from 12/31/2015 to 12/31/2018.
    Below is a total performance for 3 years.
    PIMIX (Multi sector) +18.75...PTIAX 14.3%
    VWALX(HY Muni) +10.45...OPTAX(HY Muni) 16.7%...HYD(HY Muni index) 13.3%
    MUNI (Investment grade Munis) +5.5%
    BIV (all investment grade, 50% treasuries + 50% Corp) +6.7
    VBTLX=BND (US tot bond index) +6.2%
    VCIT (investment grade Corp) 9.15%...LQD (longer duration than VCIT, investment grade Corp) 9.3%
    EIFAX (bank loan managed) 19.1%...BKLN(BL index) 10.9%
    HYG (High yield) +18.5%
    DODIX(core plus managed bond fund) +9.9%
    VWIAX (conservative allocation about 40/60) +16.3%
    So, every time you read or hear that rising rates is the end of the world please disregard it.
    Bonds have a place for many investors portfolios, especially if you want to lower volatility.
    If you don't care, whatever the reason then by all means, invest it all in stocks.
  • Politics and Investing
    Test - Here's the Link - nytimes Krugman
    Voila!! NOTE - you do need to delete the “ http://” that appears in the gizmo window.
    I would appreciate it if folk would note the source in their description. I like to know where I am going before the link opens up.
  • Politics and Investing
    Its simple: Choose the word(s) for your link- let's say you choose "Here's the Link".
    • First copy the link's actual URL address in all of it's absurdity, as you already do.:
    https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20201013&instance_id=23090&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=40840&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/54621c24-3126-5dbb-a01f-62c39cc6cc7c
    • Then type, select and highlight the phrase that's going to represent that link:
    Here's the Link
    • Now go up to the little menu bar at the top of your post, and press the little icon gizmo that's next-to-last on the menu bar.
    • A small window will appear, saying "Enter your URL"
    • Just paste your long URL in that box. You won't be able to see the whole thing, because it's a pretty small box, but that's OK.
    • Press the "OK" button on the box. That's it. It's going to look like a real mess on your screen, but just use "Prevue" to see the end product. In Prevue you can test your new link, and it should open the URL in another tab on your browser.
    Here's the Link
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    +1 david Yes-FD1k should be worth 3-5 million, and posting from his boat in Key West. Maybe some additional info about new cars, expensive wines and his wife's dressage activities !
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    With Vanguard creating a brokerage would that be investor owned or is only the (original) Vanguard investor owned ? Only asking to see if those still holding (original) Vanguard investors due money if sold to say Schwab
    When a company is acquired, its owners, not its customers, benefit. For example, when Adidas acquired Reebok, it was the Reebok shareholders who benefited. If you were a customer walking around in Reeboks, you didn't suddenly get some free laces.
    TD Ameritrade (formerly Ameritrade) was a publicly traded company, 40% owned by Toronto Dominion Bank. So when Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade, likewise the owners of TDAmeritrade (stock holders and TD Bank) were the ones to benefit, not the customers of the business.
    If Vanguard Brokerage Services were to be acquired by Schwab, it would be the owners of VBS to benefit. It turns out that "Vanguard Brokerage Services [is] a division of Vanguard Marketing Corporation." Vanguard Marketing Corporation in turn is "a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Vanguard Group, Inc".
    It is common knowledge (a way of saying I'm too lazy to provide a citation) that The Vanguard Group is owned by Vanguard mutual funds which in turn are owned by the Vanguard fund shareholders.
    So, if VBS were sold to Schwab, its owners, in this case Vanguard mutual fund investors, would be the ones to benefit. Not the customers of VBS, except to the extent that they were also Vanguard fund investors.
  • Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552947/000158064220003735/redwood497.htm
    497 1 redwood497.htm 497
    REDWOOD ALPHAFACTOR® TACTICAL CORE FUND
    Class N RWTNX
    Class I RWTIX
    REDWOOD ACTIVIST LEADERS® FUND
    Class N RWLNX
    Class I RWLIX
    Each Series of Two Roads Shared Trust
    Supplement dated October 13, 2020 to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    for the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund
    each dated February 28, 2020
    The Board of Trustees of Two Roads Shared Trust (the “Trust”) has concluded, based upon the recommendation of Redwood Investment Management, LLC, that it is in the best interests of the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund (each a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”) and their respective shareholders that each Fund be liquidated. Pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) approved by the Board of Trustees, each Fund will be liquidated and dissolved on or about October 30, 2020.
    Each Fund will be closed to all new investments on October 14, 2020. On or about the close of business on October 30, 2020, each Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Each Fund will not accept any new investments and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Plan for each Fund provides that the Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio as soon as is reasonable and practicable and will invest in cash or cash equivalents (such as money market funds). During this time, each Fund may hold more cash or cash equivalents than normal, which may prevent a Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. Shares of the Funds are not available for purchase.
    Prior to October 30, 2020, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section of the Funds’ Prospectus. Unless your investment in a Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, you will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes (and for most state and local income tax purposes) on a redemption of your shares, whether as a result of a redemption that you initiate or upon the final liquidating distribution by a Fund, based on the difference between the amount you receive and your tax basis in your shares. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation. Plan sponsors or plan administrative agents should notify participants that a Fund is liquidating and should provide information about alternative investment options.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUNDS PRIOR TO OCTOBER 30, 2020 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    ________________________________________
    This Supplement, and the Prospectus and SAI, each dated February 28, 2020, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and the SAI have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated by reference. The Prospectus and SAI can be obtained without charge by calling 1-855-RED-FUND (733-3863).
  • M* Portf Mngr. still down
    "We are currently experiencing an issue with Portf. Manager...." At the top of the webpage. 11:30 a.m. Hawaii Time, 5:30 P.M. Eastern, Tues. 13th October.
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    I really feel sorry for ICE Car manufacturers. They all have PLANS but no real products. I would have loved Toyota Rav4 Prime with 100 miles pure electric - but T is only planning to release 5000 for all USA with 42 miles pure electric - from a company which pioneered HYBRIDS long time ago. Reminder with all it's short comings, Tesla is going to be the next TRILLION $$$$ company.