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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Howdy, Not to write as being dispassionate towards the circumstance of COVID-19 and those dealing with this; but also that I am not in a position to offer any direct assistance for a remedy.
    I wrote on Jan. 21:
    As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
    If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
    Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
    I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
    Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.
    So now we (our house) have to decide whether this (COVID-19) will become a global economic event that will shape our portfolio in a dramatic fashion. It is not as much about how we feel; but how those who control the advances and declines in our portfolio choose their path.
    A few considerations for those who alter the path of our portfolio are: sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance company investments, central banks ,wealthy individual investors, and of course; the algo machines. As to the humans involved with money flows in these organizations, that aside from what the "numbers" may show them; is that, they too, have their shaped behavioral human nature and how they think.
    We do not tend to move money in or out of a position with averaging; but rather in large chunks. Now to decide whether to take some profits from investments in the growth side, with fingers crossed, OR unload 50% OR hold tight.
    Lastly, I had several links I considered. But, good timely data is readily available. The virus numbers continue to grow and into more countries. China we know about, South Korea has had a rapid cases increase since Thursday, Japan has more scattered cases, northern Italy has closed off several communities, etc, etc, etc.
    A large concern, especially from the industrial nations, is growing supply chain shortages. It is one thing to have a facility closed and alter production for electronics, vehicles and such; and a whole different circumstance revolving around medicinal compounds, products and devices.
    The consumer and other workers is another aspect when they can't or don't want to venture outside. An older model in the U.S. suggested that the "old" Michigan auto industry in it's glory days supported another 5 or so workers in the community.
    I'm rambling now........time to stop pecking the keyboard.
    Please share your thoughts. Perhaps I need a good kick in the arse.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Benefits of the Premium Version of Morningstar compared to regular version.
    Here's a M* chart comparing the performances of PIODX and MITTX over the lifetime of the younger fund (PIODX, starting February 10, 1928).
    PIODX gained 2,911,544%, while MITTX gained a mere 241,202%. At least if I got my decimal points in the right place.
    M* provides data encompassing not only the Great Recession but the Great Depression. Admittedly, if you zoom in, you'll see that for some funds (here, PIODX), the granularity way back then was only at the annual level.
  • The Benefits of the Premium Version of Morningstar compared to regular version.
    The premium M* only goes out 5 years in the comparison so it misses the 2008 bear market. So better to go to Yahoo for APR!
  • PDI And PCI: An Update To The Greatest Bond Funds Of All Time
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4325257-pdi-and-pci-update-to-greatest-bond-funds-of-all-time
    Pdi And PCI: An Update To The Greatest Bond Funds Of All Time
    Feb. 21, 2020 7:00 AM ETPIMCO Dynamic Credit Income Fund (PCI), PDIPGP, PHK, PIMIX...
    The NAVs have done better in the last 30-45 days as the dollar has rebounded against the euro and pound. PDI's NAV was ranked 16th out of 22 last year.
    They are defensively positioned within traditional corporate credit and investing in areas of the economy that they feel offer more downside protection.
    While PCI remains a key income generator for my portfolio and the Core Portfolio on Yield Hunting, we have not been adding to it.
    We have been saying that the best days for these funds are behind us. However, that is not to say they aren't still great core pieces of my portfolio.
    The NAV for us will be key. If we feel the NAV is no longer outpacing the distribution on a monthly basis, we could be re-assessing our position in the shares
    Thx Catch 22 for the pdi recs..bought it last yr and very happy w it mama portfolio
  • *
    @Gary1952, Since, InformalEconomist answered your question; but, plans to delete their response, I have copied and pasted it below so that it remains part of the thread history in answer to the question that you asked of me.
    "They" is the current, nonbinary equivalent of "he or she."
    Respectfully,
    Old_Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    It appears the uptrend from 10/2019 is now over and the market will correct and consolidate for 4-6 weeks in preparation for the next leg up.
    A good time for long term investors to deploy any spare cash and buy into funds on down days.
    My calculations point to the S&P500 correcting to 3180 +/-10.
    I'm also looking at FSPTX and other funds with a significant AI component. The growth in AI will be exponential and reward investors handsomely.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Just looked at that thing, @Catch22. No surprises. We are quite lucky re: housing. We're paying two-thirds of what by rights ought to be expected for rent (3BR) here. But also: 3:30 p.m. on Feb. 21 and weather is 76 degrees with "a few clouds," according to the NWS. Jimmy Buffett sang: "I wish I were somewhere other than here." Not me. And the little guy is just 3 years old. Last night, he heard me listening to the Allman Bros. "Jessica." He walked into my room and danced and danced with me, until the song was over. And that's a long song! So yes, it's fun here. And when he gets to screaming and crying, his mother and dad can deal with THAT. ;)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Tarwheel Just gave it the once-over. The monthlies are too lean for me. I note that January's was under .03 cents/share. I'm not using monthlies YET, but when I do, I want those distributions to be worth something. Expenses here in the 50th State are high. I've seen a stat. which claims Hawaii's cost of living is 80% higher than the US average. I believe it. Gas for the car is running about $3.65/gallon.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Tarwheel I shall certainly look at PTTFX. I did consider the very thing you mentioned about RPSIX, and initially decided that I liked its monthlies, and if there's a bit of a boost at the end of the year from the small position in stocks, all the better. I'm still trying, but not very hard, to get to 60 bonds, 40 stocks. Right now I'm 56 bonds and 36 stocks, and 7 cash. My fund managers, together, have all decided in the aggregate to create that 7 percent in cash. And there might be 1 or 2 percent in "other."
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Tarwheel, you are correct, M* puts PTTFX in the Intermediate Core-Plus category but I would call it MS(Multi Sector) light.
    The best risk/reward category over the last several years is securitized.
    M* says that PTTFX has over 50% in it and it's the biggest category.
    VCFAX has about 90% in securitized...JMUTX 49%...PUCZX 32%...IOFIX 90+%.
    Portfolio Vis (link) shows that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX have better performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino.
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    Yes, I'm bumping this to add a link for those who may have an interest in COVID 19. The page link is a global map, that I have found to be "decent" with update periods, when compared to other sources. This is not the only such data map for this subject, but allows the viewer to move/drag and zoom the map; as well as clicking onto an area of interest to obtain data for a particular location and in many cases, a link to the source of the data.
    NOTE: I find the data may be one day behind in reporting; as is the case with South Korea.
    I going to monitor this periodically, with refreshing the map web page.
    COVID 19 DATA MAP
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    From a Feb. 17 note I posted:
    Our continued concern is what will become of the COVID19 virus and its impact on supply chain for various sectors. Tech. in particular could be an overwhelming favorite for profit taking.
    ***30 year bond yield dropped below 2%
    We've maintained our tech. equity positions and of course, don't want to give money back; but some areas of tech. will be less impacted. Data crunching and related services should maintain, while some areas of the hardware providers may see problems from supply chain difficulties.
    Investment grade bonds (U.S., more so for gov't issues) will have another nice pop today, if nothing changes with status reports for COVID 19; and in particular for my view is the virus and impacts into South Korea.
    Those with portfolio exposure to long gov't. issues and especially directly exposed to the likes of: EDV, LTPZ, ZROZ will profit nicely. These 3 etf's however, travel at a fast rate in both directions; so hold on tight if you have monies here.
    I'll add this yield chart that I use. The chart is for 1 year and is YIELD, not pricing. Hover the cursor on the chart lines for rate and date info.
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    DODIX is a top fund in the Intermediate Core-Plus category. I like to show how a good Multisector fund can have better performance, SD=voltility and why Sharpe+Sortino are higher.
    See 3 year performance at PortVis(link)
    See the chart (here)
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    @Crash
    I bought WAEMX before the market tanked in 2008 then sold it for a loss. Waited for some months and bought back into the fund when it was a lot less than $2.95 per share. It has a similar price structure to WAIOX and WAMVX. Keep in mind that WMICX started out the same way.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Since, equities have had a strong run during the third and fourth quarters of 2019 I've had to buy in the fixed income area of my portfolio to help maintain balance within my asset allocation. This month, I added to my muni income fund (FLAAX) with it being the best performing fund within my income sleeve year to date with a total return, as of 2/20/2020, of 2.65%. The sleeve's next best year to date performer was LBNDX with a total return of 2.49%. My income sleeve's total return for its rolling twelve month period was found to be listed at 8.25% with its yield, about half that, at 4.13%. The three best performing funds within the sleeve for the rolling 12 month period were LBNDX +10.98%, FLAAX +10.32% and PGBAX +10.06%.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Holy cow. WAEMX at $2.95 per share? Am I totally wrong, or does this carry a whiff of a very risky, "penny stock" sort of item?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Let's look at RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX and compare them to several other Multi sector funds in my list such as VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX
    Looking at PV (link)
    You can see below that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX are better RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX The last 2 columns are Sharpe +Sortino.
    See this link (link)
  • Warren jumps on etf train
    IKR! Since May 31, 1990 BRK.A is up only 4,711.19% while SPY is up 670.05%. Dumb as a rock that Warren. Terrible money manager.
    p.s. those dates merely reflect the charting dates provided by the Max button on a M* chart. I'm well aware that it is silly to extoll his management capabilities based on one random chart but you can find all the performance data you want with a simple search.
    A Simple Look