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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Let's look at RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX and compare them to several other Multi sector funds in my list such as VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX
    Looking at PV (link)
    You can see below that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX are better RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX The last 2 columns are Sharpe +Sortino.
    See this link (link)
  • Warren jumps on etf train
    IKR! Since May 31, 1990 BRK.A is up only 4,711.19% while SPY is up 670.05%. Dumb as a rock that Warren. Terrible money manager.
    p.s. those dates merely reflect the charting dates provided by the Max button on a M* chart. I'm well aware that it is silly to extoll his management capabilities based on one random chart but you can find all the performance data you want with a simple search.
    A Simple Look
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    "My intention is to put forward several of my best ideas and compare them to funds that others own. So, if you have any fund in mind we can discuss it.
    I'm also looking to make more than the average with bond funds but still, have reasonable low volatility, if I can make 20-30+% more money with portfolio overall SD lower than 2.5 than I accomplish my goals.
    Bonds are where great managers can add performance + sometimes lower volatility..."
    Might you do me the favor of including these three?
    RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX.
    Thank you very much.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    “I can make 20-30+%“
    Funny thing about quoting percentages is that seem higher than they appear to be.
    Say if a bond fund returns 3%, a 30% increase amounts to less than 1% increase in return.
    Is the effort worth it for a tiny 1% increase in return?
    Are other assets classes (stocks) or asset allocations (stock to bond ratios) better to target?
    @BigTom
    Nope, it's not only 1% increase it's much more than that.
    Several examples:
    1) PIMIX vs BND (link)=in the last 10 years PIMIX made 5% more annually with higher SD(but still low) and much better Sharpe+Sortino
    2) IOFIX vs BND (link)=IOFIX made almost 8% more annually with similar SD and much better Sharpe+Sortino.
    3) A relative used to invest in MM, I told him to use SEMPX instead after I explained it to him. In 5 years SEMPX made 4.4 while VG VMMXX made 1.2%, this is more than 3% annually.
    4) I told another relative to use HY Munis instead of some of his MM/CD and he made over 7% in the last 3 years instead of 1.5-2%.
    This tread intention is to discuss only open-ended bond funds.
    Not stocks vs Bonds
    Not CEFs vs bonds
    Not asset allocation
    Not how anybody invests currently and in the past.
    Not about retirement or accumulation phase.
    If you like to discuss the above non-related topics please start a new thread.
    It's a pretty simple concept, you post a bond fund and we discuss it generally and compare it to other funds.
    So, do you have a bond fund in mind you like to discuss?
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    Could have said that in a 25-word blurb.
    Consider the source. Forbes = clickbait central.
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ignore gold shills.
    Rebalancing is not too hard. Don't be afraid of capital gains taxes, they are at historic lows if you have little or no earned income.
    I am wary of bond funds. As I shave off my stock index fund gains little by little, I've actually been buying individual bonds of 1 to 2 year duration until recently. The offerings really dried up in January, though, and even money markets are paying more than 1-2 year near-junk-grade stuff. Once rates hit zero (and I think they will) what will happen to valuations? I dunno.
    My calculations say I can live for a few years off my for-now 3% bond ladder yield so I am buying my time. 15% cash as well, shooting for higher.
    Don't forget that I-series savings bonds pay over 2% if you are willing to hold them a long time.
    I am curious why you are wary on bond OEFs? There are 2 excellent posters here that do a lot of research on them. From those 2 I have learned a lot about bond funds. I do not follow anyone blindly but still do my own due diligence.
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    From the article "One of the most attractive sources of income right now is tax-free municipal bonds."
    The author also forgot to mention funds such as SEMMX,PIMIX,IOFIX,PUCZX that pay over 4.5%.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    My intention is to put forward several of my best ideas and compare them to funds that others own. So, if you have any fund in mind we can discuss it.
    I'm also looking to make more than the average with bond funds but still, have reasonable low volatility, if I can make 20-30+% more money with portfolio overall SD lower than 2.5 than I accomplish my goals.
    Bonds are where great managers can add performance + sometimes lower volatility compared to a generic index such as BND.
    HY Munis continue to be my favorite category. OPTAX jumped 2 days, each at 0.9% which is very unusual. YTD...OPTAX 4.3%...NHMAX 3.65...ORNAX 3.4% (chart).
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    I'm glad you mentioned that zero, because it highlights the distinction between current yield (interest payments), and yield to maturity (for individual bonds) or SEC yield (for bond funds).
    That zero "yielded" zero (duh). It paid no interest. That 5.6% figure was the rate of return you got on the bond, including interest payments (none) and "appreciation". That is, total return.
    (BTW, that "appreciation" would be taxed as ordinary income under today's tax laws.)
    Now suppose you bought a 10 year bond for $1090 (par $1K) with a coupon of 3%. Your current yield would be 2.75% ($30/$1090). But your yield to maturity would be only 2%, because you'd get back just $1K at maturity.
    http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/bond_yield_calculator.htm
    A way to think about it (and the way the IRS thinks about it), is that part of that $30 in annual "interest" is return of principal. Effectively, this "current yield" is eating away at your investment.
    This is why I prefer to look at SEC yield. This is also why in your post it helps to compare the SEC yield of the bond funds with the yield to maturity of the zero bond. Were the bond fund yields you gave current (or trailing) yields, or were they SEC yields?
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Zero rates here? Gawd, I hope not. The very idea is double-speak, as in "1984." Zero rates put the earth where the sky should be, and vice-versa. 2% for I-Series? Why bother? We are still better off than the Weimar Republic. I once saw an illustration, in a history book. A guy was using a wheelbarrow to lug a big pile of Deutschmarks. Not to use them to buy wood to burn for the fireplace at home, but rather to PUT them in the fireplace--- because it was more cost-effective than to buy the wood. Jay-zuz. I expect and depend on more than 2% from my bond funds. I own three, offering yields today of:
    1) 4.35%
    2) 2.82%
    3) 3.36%
    I remember the '80s, where it was easy to find a CD (FDIC-guarantee!) yielding 14%. But I had no money, then. (sigh.) The last DECENT bond rate I took was an individual foreign gov't bond bought in 2003, a 10-year "Zero." Over 5.6%. I'd kill for that, now.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Below is what I posted on 1/31/2020
    Performance..1 month...YTD as of 1/31/2020
    Multi
    • PDIIX……1.5.....
    • PUCZX….1.1..…
    • JMUTX....1.15....
    • JMSIX.....0.8……. (JGIAX)
    Multi(high % securitized)
    • PIMIX.....0.8….
    • EIXIX…..1.1….
    • VCFAX...1.3...
    • IOFIX.....1.8....
    • SEMMX...1.3.... (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    • DHEIX….0.6…..4.85 (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    • PHMIX…..2.1.....
    • NHMAX....2.7.....
    • MMHAX....2.0.…..
    • OPTAX.....2.4....
    • ORNAX….2.6……..
    • GHYAX......2.1......
    • GWMEX….2.6…... (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    • NVHAX……1.7……. (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    • USIBX.......2.1.....
    • BCOIX......1.9…....
    • PINCX……2.1..…….
    • BND….......2.0…......
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    • EIFAX.......0.5.....
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    • IISIX..........0.7....
    • PUTIX......-0.1….
    • PAJZX……0.7….
    HY +EM
    • HYG.........-0.5.....
    • PHIYX.......0.....
    • ZEOIX……0.3…….(ST HY, 3 year SD less than 1, good as cash sub)
    • FNMIX……1.4…….
    Corporate
    • PIGIX….…2.5..….
    Preferred
    • PFINX…...1.5……
    OTHER
    • FXAIX.…..0..…(SP500)
    • PCI………0.9... (CEF)
    Rating several good choices
    Multisector+NonTrad-
    SD less than 1=SEMMX,ANFIX,ANGLX,DHEIX…
    SD less than 1.5=IISIX,TSIIX…
    SD less than 2=VCFIX,/VCFAX,JMUIX/JMUTX,PIMIX…
    SD less than 2.7=IOFIX,PUCZX,DPFNX,JMSIX
    HY Muni-…
    SD less than 2=NVHIX,WHYIX,ISHYX…
    SD less than 3=NHMRX/NHMAX,GHYIX/GHYAX,MMHIX/MMHAX
    Core+Core plus-…
    SD less than 1.5=FIJEX…
    SD less than 3=PINCX,GTO
    Observations:
    2020 OPENED WITH A BANG FOR BOND OEFs. Rates were down and many funds did nicely.
    Multi- Another good month and especially for IOFIX. SEMMX did great for its low SD.
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 2+% for a month.
    Inter term – did fantastic because rates were down
    Bank loans – are lagging
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and PUTIX fell off the cliff
    HY+EM – HYG lost money and EM did pretty well.
    Corp – This category was on fire because of the rate cut.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.
    The Multi funds I’m interested are IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PIMIX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX,PUCZX but IOFIX is usually the leader. SEMMX did very well for a very low SD fund.
    Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX,ZEOIX as a "cash sub" LT, see 3 year SD less than 1(link). In taxable, you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT. I remember so many posts in 01/2019 about MM/CD that were paying just 2-2.5%.
    ============================
    Any question or subject about bond mutual funds (not CEFs) is welcome in this thread. I will try and answer all of them.
  • Warren jumps on etf train
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3542902-buffett-jumps-on-etf-train
    Warren recently bought Voo and spy
    Wonder if he is late to the party..shoulda jump in 2009
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/18/where-to-get-income-in-a-low-yield-world/#1579902c43b8
    Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    Frank HolmesContributor
    -So far in 2020, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has averaged an anemic 0.01 percent when adjusted for inflation. Since the end of January, it’s actually dipped below 0 percent, trading as low as negative 0.14 percent on January 31-
    bought more FBND for Mom's retired acct
  • ostrx fund
    For cash, I would look at SEMMX or DHEAX/DHEIX. SEMMX has lower rating bonds and better performance than DHEAX (Investment grade > 80%). I call these funds "cash sub" for investors who are willing to take a calculated risk.
    See PorVis(link)
    I hardly ever hold cash/MM/CD but that's what I do and what suites my goals.
  • ostrx fund
    M* is more correct. Look at their (site).
    Investment-grade, U.S. dollar-based, absolute return-oriented strategy
    Ability to manage and hedge duration based on market conditions
    Portfolio construction and rebalancing are driven by investment decisions, not benchmark changes

    I highlight above several keywords.
    Now, do I want to invest in OSTRX?
    I would compare it to SEMMX,IISIX see PorVis(link)
    SEMMX,IISIX have better performance, SD=voltility, Sharpe, Sortino and higher income too.
  • *
    Anyone who wants to see 'only' those discussions with comments merely needs to click on the "Discussions +" category in the far left column upon logging into the Discussion Board. This negates those discussions that have had no comments since posting which may or may not be indicative of overall general interest. It also reduces the amount of scrolling needed to find a particular post. I might add that the 'Search' box also provides that capability. Readers that also want to follow a particular post can bookmark it and retrieve it quickly as well.
    One other thing - if you think that posts of interest get scrolled off of the main page to quickly for your liking you should have been a poster here back in the days of Ted who almost regularly posted conservatively 15-20 new discussions per day. If anything that is probably an understatement.
    To be honest what I really believe I am hearing you say is that you want this discussion board to operate the way you want it to or you will not participate. Obviously that's your choice but everyone else try's to play by the rules realizing that they may not be exactly what we think they should be. In my experience this is by far the friendliest discussion board you are likely to encounter IMHO.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Added vanguard 2045 and vppcx today..one bond matured