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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "The Market"
    Even with an allocation model I feel “lost” most of the time. I can’t even begin to imagine how “winging it” might feel.
    I do have discretion to play around in the 5-10% “speculative” component. That’s filled to the max 10% with (3 different) equity hedges right now - which might give some hint as to my own predisposition. There’s another 25% allocated to various fixed income products. So that leaves 65% in assets that should generate positive return.
    * As always, age and circumstance should play a major role in how one allocates & the degree of risk assumed. Longer time horizons allow for greater risk.
    ** Also - Nobody can predict the market, although over longer periods it rises. Act on predictions (your own or others) at your own peril.
  • Barclay’s Bond Blunder
    This is having ripples across the investment markets. Bloomberg reports that Dodge & Cox is one of the largest holders of the stock. DODBX was down sharply yesterday due to a quarterly distribution. So, I don’t have a good read on how this issue may have affected their funds. BARC is down 2.8% at noon today.
    Bloomberg is reporting a large block sale (in excess of $1 Bil) of Barclay’s stock today.
    Here’s a Yahoo story re that sale.
    Here’s an earlier story from Monday: U.S. News
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    I should clarify that my reassessment of inflation assets was triggered largely by global events. Six months ago I thought a lot of industrial metals, agriculture, and especially energy assets were quite overvalued. That was before Russia invaded Ukraine and set in motion a wide range of unanticipated actions / events. The termination of the Nordstrom 2 pipeline project that would have supplied parts of Europe with cheaper natural gas was one. The efforts by NATO states to lessen dependence on Russian oil is another. Than there are the issues with grain production …
    Doesn’t appear to me that this is a temporary phenomenon. So net-net I raised my allocation to real assets from around 8% to 9%. Not a huge change. I accomplished this with the addition of ENOR which tracks an equity index in Norway - a nation rich in energy and minerals that should benefit from the above mentioned global situation. It is weighted about 20% energy and 10% other materials. As I said earlier, domestic petroleum producers and drillers look too expensive for my taste. As a cautionary note: This is a highly volatile fund that fell about 40% in the first quarter of 2020. You may recall, however, that around than oil fell below 0 on the futures markets.
    Real assets look a bit weak again today. Some froth being boiled off. RIO is off 1%. But the stock has been good to me since buying. Gold’s off a small amount and the p/c miners recently turned positive. I’ve always felt that in a well balanced portfolio you should have assets moving in both directions. It’s the days where 100% of my holdings move up in sync or down in sync that worry me.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    The mortgage funds have been trading like they are broken for a couple months now. It began with SEMPX and BDKAX. It was only inevitable this weakness would filter down to their sister funds IOFIX, DPFNX, and RCTIX. Very illiquid holdings. EIXIX and RCTRX have held the best in this sector. Ominous that these funds have performed so poorly in light of a strong undercurrent recently in junk bonds. Not sure what can turn these around other than strength in the 10 year.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    I can't see inflation is controlled. Supply chain to China in worse mess than last year, due to Covid. Ukraine production of commodities will be hit bad, and will take time to trickle through the markets, although the recent spikes are likely an overreaction. What will happen to Agricultural prices when the food riots start because Ukrainian wheat deliveries to the Middle East are cut by 2/3s? Even if the Ukraine produces, all theport facilities have been destroyed.
    The Chinese are applying a hammer to Covid. Hong Kong apparently has only vaccinated 1/3 of their elderly ( what were they thinking?) and that with an ineffective vaccine.
    For the mainland to react this way they must realize their vaccine is worthless. Surely they have data on how the lockdown of Wuhan worked, and if they are trying it again, it must be pretty bad.
    While this will crush demand there, it will also hit supplies of chips etc hard.
    I started an overweight in energy and commodities last year, and have not added much. I didn't over do it but the rise is mainly price appreciation. I don't think it is time to sell. I don't really believe in a "Super cycle" but prices have been low for so long, and the worlds population is only getting larger.
  • Yen tumbles vs. dollar. What to make of this?
    Why? How come? It will help Japanese exporters, but hurt importers, if I've got that right. Right? Why is Kuroda buying Japanese bonds like a madman? inflation is at 1/2 percent, I just heard on Bloomberg. Implications?
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    COM was down yesterday 1.6% yesterday, but is up 5.6% for the month and 15.3% YTD.
    FTGC faired well also, down 2.7%, but up 8% for the month.
    EAPCX and VCMDX both down about 2.5%, but up +9% for the month.
    FFGCX was down 1.9% for the day, but up 13% for the month.
    VGENX was down 1.3 for the day, but up 4.7% for the month.
    FSRRX was down 0.6%, and up 3.5% for the month.
    PZRMX was up 0.11%, and up 4.3% for the month.
    Inflation protection will be volatile as investors play the market, but inflation is high, and still worth owning in modest amounts.
    Just my two cents, or 1.9 cents adjusted for inflation.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    The dreaded Inverted Yield Curve. Lead indicator of a potential recession.
    This is often the case.
    However, the Fed purchased more than $4T in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) since March 2020. The 10 Yr. Treasury yield has been distorted and artificially surpressed.
  • Barron’s Ranking of Brokerages (March 28 edition)
    Vanguard's website performance deteriorated significantly for me after their site was updated several months ago. If others are experiencing similar issues, it's probably wise that Vanguard chose not to participate in Barron's broker survey ¹.
    ¹ I don't recall Vanguard ever participating in Barron's annual survey.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    A CityWire article was posted several hours ago regarding former PM George Jikovski.
    You may need to sign in or sign up to read the article in its entirety.
    Excerpts below.
    "‘After 15 years at Canyon Partners, George Jikovski, partner and manager of our River Canyon Total Return fund, is leaving the firm. We’re actively recruiting his replacement, and in the interim the fund will be managed by Todd Lemkin, our CIO, and Sam Reid, our top debt trader,’ the spokesperson said."
    "Jikovski had run the fund since late December 2014, investing almost exclusively in securitized assets and posting a 5.6% annualized return through Friday. The Bloomberg US Aggregate, by contrast, delivered a 1.9% annualized return over that time."
    "The fund under Jikovski also delivered some extra volatility, posting a 4.4% standard deviation of returns compared to 3.3% for the index, but its returns were so far ahead of the index that its Sharpe Ratio of 1.13 more than doubled the 0.51 reading of the index."
    "More than half of the fund is in floating rate securities. The popularity of these assets for both their higher yield and their inflation protection has led to their being securitized in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in recent years."
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    @hank and @Mike M, please see @lynnbolin2021’s Seeking Alpha article - lots of good info. MikeM has made good move to COM.
    I too have invested small allocation in commodity futures via funds and ETFs since last year as my bonds lagged. They have moved up strongly as future prices on oil, gasoline, metals, agricultural products and livestock went up. I viewed today’s pull back as temporary and likely to move up again.
    Don’t think we are out of the wood yet?China’s COVID lockdown in that part of industrial city already affected the production of iPhones and other high valued products.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    @hank, I was only playing in energy because DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) happens to be ~50% energy. I wanted a 'broad basket commodity ETF and that's the one I bought last year. Inflation and rate hikes didn't just creep up on us. It has been a pretty pronounced topic for at least a year if not longer. Just took a while to get here.
    I still believe in the inflation hedge commodity theme through this year. Heck, energy still hasn't recovered fully from it's long trending drop starting around 2014. But I actually sold DBC a week or 2 ago because of it's over weight in energy/oil futures and the quick run-up. Others here mentioned COM, Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF, a managed fund, much tamer than DBC, so I went that route. I switched dollar for dollar DBC to COM.
    Commodity trends normally last quite a long time. I think we are in one now, but hell, I've been wrong so any times. Could be again.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    Oil pulled back due to China’s lockdown on Shanghai - worst outbreak in the last two years. It is severe enough to affect export production and oil consumption in that city. They are starting to use Pfizer vaccine which is considerable more effective than their Sinovac vaccine.
    Not sure why industrial and precious metals are down today. Same goes for agricultural products. Crude oil was down 9% this morning, but it is still over $100 prior to the war.
    Commodity is a volatile asset class so a small allocation will goes a long way. Ukraine war is still in-going so high oil price will return again.
    @junkster, you are right that FSRRX is the least volatile fund to gain exposure to commodities. The fund invested 30% in commodities and some in precious metals.
  • Barron’s Ranking of Brokerages (March 28 edition)
    Barron's ratings article:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelity-robinhood-best-online-brokers-ratings-51648162632
    13. Vanguard. (I made that up.)
    As Barron's noted in the companion piece, The Best Online Brokers for 2022: Tools to Cope With a Complex Investing World, "once again, Vanguard chose not to cooperate."
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-online-brokers-review-51648162195
    Doesn’t TRP run a brokerage service. Where are they?
    Doesn't American Century run a brokerage? Oh, the indignity of being excluded :-)
    https://www.americancentury.com/content/direct/en/products/account-types/brokerage.html
    Various fund families operate brokerages as appendages for the convenience of their fund investors as opposed to providing robust services. I've never had any visibility into TRP's or AC's offering, so I'm just guessing they fit this description.
  • BBH Partner Fund – Select Short Term Assets is to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342947/000089109222001046/bbh497ssta-rf.htm
    497 1 bbh497ssta-rf.htm PROSPECTUS AND SAI SUPPLEMENT
    BBH TRUST
    BBH PARTNER FUND – SELECT SHORT TERM ASSETS
    (BBSTX)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 28, 2022 TO THE
    PROSPECTUS
    AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    DATED MARCH 1, 2022
    The following information supplements, and, to the extent inconsistent therewith, supersedes, certain information in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information. Unless otherwise noted, capitalized terms used in this supplement have the same meaning as defined in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    I. FUND LIQUIDATION
    On March 28, 2022, the Board of Trustees of BBH Trust (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation for the BBH Partner Fund – Select Short Term Assets (the “Fund”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about the earlier of (i) April 13, 2022 and (ii) the date on which all shareholders that are not affiliated with the Adviser have redeemed their respective shares of the Fund (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholder approval of the Liquidation is not required.
    Beginning on March 28, 2022 through the Liquidation Date, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it liquidates holdings in preparation for the distribution of assets to investors. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash or cash equivalents than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. Shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will receive their proportionate interest in all of the net assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all the outstanding shares of the Fund. Payment will be made in accordance with instructions from each shareholder. If a shareholder has not provided instructions by the time proceeds are distributed, that shareholder’s liquidation proceeds shall be distributed based on the payment instructions on file for such shareholder with the Fund’s Transfer Agent. For those accounts with no bank instructions on file with the Fund’s Transfer Agent, the Transfer Agent shall issue a check. If required by the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, the Fund will make an income distribution prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus prior to the Liquidation Date. If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction by the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed on the Liquidation Date, and you will receive your proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding.
    The Adviser will bear all expenses of the Liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses. However, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs and any potential tax consequences associated with turnover of the Fund’s portfolio.
    The liquidation of the Fund, like any redemption of Fund shares, will constitute an event upon which a gain or loss may be recognized for state and federal income tax purposes, depending on the type of account and the adjusted cost basis of the investor’s shares. The tax year for the Fund will end on the Liquidation Date. Please contact your tax advisor to discuss the tax consequences to you of the liquidation.
    II. CLOSURE OF THE FUND TO PURCHASES
    Effective as of the close of business on March 28, 2022, the Fund will be closed to purchases of Fund shares; however, the closure to purchases of Fund shares does not restrict any shareholders from redeeming shares of the Fund.
    The Fund’s ability to enforce the closure of the Fund to purchases with respect to certain retirement plan accounts and accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on systems capabilities, applicable contractual and legal restrictions, and cooperation of those retirement plans and intermediaries.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-800-575-1265 if you have any questions.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    If it helps any, the fund I just sold today at Fido is RPGAX
    Actually it confuses matters, as the subject asks about funds paying quarterly divs, and RPGAX pays divs annually.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/RPGAX?WTAFeaturedResult=RPGAX#content-prices-distributions
    For any particular fund, just RTFM.
    From the fine manual (prospectus) for RPGAX:
    Any dividends or capital gains are declared and paid annually, usually in December.
    But assume that the OEF bond fund accrues and pays monthly. You seem clear that if sold mid-month that you don't any of the interest for that month. Where does the interest go?
    An example of such a fund is LSBDX. From its prospectus: "Generally each fund declares and pays dividends monthly."
    This is no different from a fund that pays quarterly or annually or on any other schedule. When a fund gets cash from equity dividends or bond interest payments, that cash becomes part of the underlying portfolio. Its value is reflected in the NAV of the fund shares, unless the fund declares (accrues) daily divs.
    The manager may choose to invest the cash, one hopes so. But it doesn't matter in terms of benefiting from stock divs and bond interest in the fund's portfolio.
  • Hold On or Move On
    @Starchild : “I posted a pissed off thread about MGGPX recently, but held on. Good thing I did.” < — you are saying that you are glad you held on to MGGPX?
    It’s down 18% YTD, may I ask why? Asking as I still own some and am wondering why.
    Well, I'm not exactly sure either, lol. The fund has a way of bouncing back after downturns. The other day it had like an 8% upswing (and fell back since). I'm not sure it's wise to sell on the downturn, at least without seeing how this fund responds this year and giving this much profit away. I agree, it's getting annoying watching this fund get beat up for this long. I'm curious as to what others are thinking.
    I think my initial query was more about investing in these int'l funds in the first place. They're very volatile for something that might not beat the market in the long run, or just give you this much a rocky ride (my other int'l fund ain't doing much better). If I were to bail int'l, or at least dramatically reduce, I'd probably stick the money in VTSAX.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    Oil fell over $10.00 .
    Gold off $36.00
    PM miners off 2.6%
    Wheat got whacked
    Most industrial metals weaker
    Seems maybe forks folks are reasoning Putin ain’t such a bad dude after all … or possibly that the end of the war is nearer?
    In Japan short rates were rising so fast (overnight) Bloomberg reported the BOJ was considering imposing some type of rate freeze.