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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is it smart to for retirees to get out of the stock market entirely?
    Everyone is different. The "bucket" approach has alot of followers, although it is hard to track down M* Christine Benz's original articles anymore.
    Still, from a purely intellectual basis, it makes sense to set up priorities
    1) Money to live on. The amount you keep in cash depends on how much you want to be able to spend and how necessary it is, but it's purpose to to keep you from selling equities at a market bottom.
    Then you have to decide how long the bottom will last. Using the longest bear market since my college years, 3/24/2000, it took seven years for the SP500 to recover.
    1/11/1973 to 7/16/1980 was 7.5 years.
    So I think five years may not be enough, although if interest rates were higher, you could count on replenishing this account with dividends and interest.
    2) Everything else ie equities
  • China's Crackdown on Big Tech Causing Stocks to Crash
    Another interesting development:https://cnn.com/2021/07/06/investing/didi-stock-china-probe-intl-hnk/index.html
    China has a state-run economy, so going after tech for antitrust abuses could insulate the country from companies that take on unnecessary risks, including cyberthreats and potential market abuses. But some China experts believe Xi wants to avoid a situation similar to America's battle with Big Tech companies that has given companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple so much power that they are perhaps beyond the government's ability to regulate — despite several antitrust lawsuits and potential regulation. Xi may not want a competing power force in his country.
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.
    image
    Read about HNDL's methodology on its webpage, it's more than a static allocation fund like AOM or AOK. Who knows how it will perform over the long-term but it handled the covid crises quite well. It's what I'm buying when I buy these days.
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    I closed out my SCV positions over the past couple of weeks. CSB, AVUV, and CALF have all had 1-month and 3-month declines, and the SCV index, IWN, has performed similarly. Bought more FRTY and FIW.
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.
    image
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    Obviously the Diamond Hill HY team is great, I've been with them for years and very happy. My existing Brandywine fund (LFLAX) has been just as great in its own right.

    You might want to explain what you mean by "just as great in its own right." It must include metrics beyond TR but I'm not seeing how any other metrics could cause someone to see these two HYB funds as "equally great."
    TR 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr, Life
    DHHIX: 17.3%, 10.6%, 10.3%, 9.1%
    LFLAX: 5.6%, 7.0%, 5.9%, 6.2%

    LFLAX is not a HY fund. It's a multisector bond fund. Compare it to its category and you will better understand my comment.
    Oh, my bad. As the thread is about OSTIX, a HYB fund, I guess I incorrectly assumed that any comparisons/suggestions would be HYB funds.
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    Obviously the Diamond Hill HY team is great, I've been with them for years and very happy. My existing Brandywine fund (LFLAX) has been just as great in its own right.

    You might want to explain what you mean by "just as great in its own right." It must include metrics beyond TR but I'm not seeing how any other metrics could cause someone to see these two HYB funds as "equally great."
    TR 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr, Life
    DHHIX: 17.3%, 10.6%, 10.3%, 9.1%
    LFLAX: 5.6%, 7.0%, 5.9%, 6.2%
    LFLAX is not a HY fund. It's a multisector bond fund. Compare it to its category and you will better understand my comment.
  • Vanguard Global Wellington
    Though VWELX may be wandering into LB now, but that is not something it did regularly in the past. It was a solid LV balanced fund for a long time, at least since I started watching it from 2005. The trend of Value managers buying growth stocks (making the fund LB) is something that has become common in the last 10 years or so. There are many value managers doing that now. One that comes to my mind is Bill Nygren of Oakmark. These managers are following Buffet's mantra (I believe it was Charlie Munger who convinced him to do that)
    “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” – Warren Buffett
  • 50 Essential Retirement Statistics for 2020
    Before reading @bee 's comments, I had the same question: are these expenses for a household or for an individual? Bee observes that some categories don't add up, e.g. housing. (In housing, I'm not sure that they're supposed to - one either owns or rents a home, not both)
    This dubious arithmetic extends to the bottom lines - they are much greater than the sum of the bolded components. I think that addresses @Derf 's observation that transportation isn't included. Apparently, transportation (including travel?) is not considered a "key category" (see text at top of chart).
    Note that these are means, not medians. So while the text suggests that these figures illustrate how your spending might change in retirement, I'm not so sure.
    Here's actual data from the 2018 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, by age. The numbers don't exactly match the table above, but they're close enough. The difference could be due to the fact that I'm looking at a column labeled "65 years and older", which is not the same as "retired".
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error/reference-person-age-ranges-2018.pdf
    FWIW, the mean transportation spending by a "consumer unit" with age 65+ is $7,270, while the national mean for consumer units is $9,761.
    The BLS defines a "consumer unit" as:
    either: (1) all members of a particular household who are related by blood, marriage, adoption, or other legal arrangements; (2) a person living alone or sharing a household with others or living as a roomer in a private home or lodging house or in permanent living quarters in a hotel or motel, but who is financially independent; or (3) two or more persons living together who use their income to make joint expenditure decisions. Financial independence is determined by the three major expense categories: Housing, food, and other living expenses. To be considered financially independent, at least two of the three major expense categories have to be provided entirely, or in part, by the respondent.
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxgloss.htm#cu
    Of course, since we're classifying by age, and a "consumer unit" consists of more than one person, we need to be clear on what "age" means for that unit. It's the age of the "reference person".
    Reference person - The first member mentioned by the respondent when asked to "Start with the name of the person or one of the persons who owns or rents the home." It is with respect to this person that the relationship of the other consumer unit members is determined.
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxgloss.htm#refper
  • Aerospace: Raytheon, UTC and Mach 20 Weapons
    FSDAX has tracked VIS (VINAX) pretty closely historically, but over the last 18 months FSDAX trails VINAX by 30%.
    How much of this is virus related?
    image
    Prior to the virus (looking back 5 years) FSDAX was out performing VINAX by 47% and from that perspective has retraced those gains to a March 2020 lows. Since March 2020 the two have moved in lock step again.
    image
  • Vanguard Global Wellington
    Certainly its international component has a lot to do with VGWAX's relative performance. But the differences go beyond that. One can't just look at names and make assumptions.
    Though there's a perception of Wellington Management as a value house, their funds wander over much of the "map". For example, HGIYX meanders along the blend/growth boundary, currently holding more assets in growth than in blend securities.
    Lately, VWELX's portfolio has been solidly blend. 46% LCblend, 27% LCG, 24% LCV. Of its top four holdings (14.5% of its portfolio), three companies are LCG, one is LCV.
    In contrast, VGWAX has a discernable value tilt: 42% LCV, 35% LC blend, 13% LCG (virtually all the rest is MC blend). Of its top four holdings (7.2% of its portfolio), three companies are LCV, one is LCG.
    These style differences could account for much of the difference in performance. Over the lifetime of VGWAX, the Russell 1000 Value Index (IWD) has averaged 9.8% return, while the Russell 1000 Index (IWB) has averaged 16.96%.
    Comparisons on Portfolio Visualizer.
  • Aerospace: Raytheon, UTC and Mach 20 Weapons
    I was for a few years, but cut it lose in 2019 or 2020 as part of a portfolio redo. I liked the holdings but was surprised BA was still (at the time) the #1 or 2 holding - not sure where it is now, but that company is hurting and IMO shouldn't be that high up on the fund.
  • Time to Repaper the Debt Ceiling Again
    The U.S. Congress will learn on Wednesday when the federal government will likely run out of money to pay its bills, setting the stage for the latest in a long series of fights over what is known as the debt ceiling.
    A failure by Democrats and Republicans to work out differences over whether government spending cuts should accompany an increase in the statutory debt limit, currently set at $28.5 trillion, could lead to a shutdown of the federal government -- something that has happened three times in the past decade.
    On July 31, the Treasury Department technically bumps up against its statutory debt limit. Much like a personal credit card maximum, the debt ceiling is the amount of money the federal government is allowed to borrow to meet its obligations. These range from paying military salaries and IRS tax refunds to Social Security benefits and even interest payments on the debt.
    Remeber that in 2011, Republicans launched a battle over the debt limit and federal spending, which led to the first-ever Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating -- a move that reverberated through global financial markets.
    https://reuters.com/world/us/every-time-its-messy-us-again-approaching-debt-ceiling-2021-07-21/
  • 50 Essential Retirement Statistics for 2020
    Three-quarters of Americans agree the country is facing a retirement crisis, making research around the topic more relevant than ever. We dug into the data on every angle of retirement and compiled the most important statistics below. Read on to learn about what today’s retirees face, from financial challenges to lifestyle decisions and more.
    https://annuity.org/retirement/retirement-statistics/
    Does the chart below appear to be for a couple or an individual? If single, $100K / yr (for a couple) in retirement spending seems like a high hurdle to achieve. But wait... housing costs wouldn't double, would they for a couple? Are these studies forgetting that, in reality, many retirees have a wife, life partner, or family member that share many of these expenses. Also, some of these numbers are additive (take a look at telephones services...the subgroup costs add up to the bold number. The housing numbers don't add up...what gives?
    image
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    In the interest of clarification (or perhaps obfuscation if you read the following), Brandywine funds and BrandywineGLOBAL (caps in original) funds are completely different.
    As I described in this AMG thread, Brandwyine funds were affiliated with and then acquired by AMG a couple of decades ago. They were rebranded AMG Brandywine, and earlier this year completely overhauled. The original management company Friess Associates was jettisoned as submanager. Friess then relaunched Brandwine funds as Friess Brandywine.
    Legg Mason acquired acquired Brandywine Asset Management Inc. in early 1998. On August 17, 1998, Legg Mason launched Brandywine Small Cap Portfolio, managed by Brandywine Asset Management. It was a fund designed for institutional investors ("pension plans, endowments, and foundations"), and was based on a private portfolio managed by Brandywine Asset Management.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1052864/0000950169-98-000952.txt
    As of Dec 29, 1999, "Shares of the Brandywine Small Cap Portfolio [were] no longer being offered." Legg Mason's Brandywine moniker seemed to have vanished for several years.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1052864/000095016899003221/0000950168-99-003221.txt
    Then in early 2006, Brandywine Assset Management changed its name to Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC. Shortly thereafter, Legg Mason launched what appears to be the first Brandywine Global submanaged fund: GOBIX, then called Global Opportunities Bond Fund.
    Prior to April 30, 2012, the fund was a series of a corporation named Legg Mason Charles Street Trust, Inc. ... Effective October 5, 2009, ... the fund’s name [was changed] from Global Opportunities Bond Fund to Legg Mason Global Opportunities Bond Fund. Effective May 21, 2010, ... the fund’s name [was changed] from Legg Mason Global Opportunities Bond Fund to Legg Mason BW Global Opportunities Bond Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1474103/000119312512175846/d296312d485bpos.htm
    The insertion of BW was the first time "Brandywine" seeped into the Legg Mason funds' names. But it was cosmetic; nothing about the management of the funds changed.
    On Dec 29, 2017 the rebranding was complete, though again it was merely cosmetic:
    Effective December 29, 2017, the fund will be renamed BrandywineGLOBAL – Global Opportunities Bond Fund.
    * * * * * *
    The change to the fund’s name is being effected as part of a rebranding of Legg Mason funds subadvised by Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC (“Brandywine Global”). Legg Mason Partners Fund Advisor, LLC continues to serve as the investment manager to the fund, and Brandywine Global continues to serve as subadviser. The fund’s investment objectives, strategies and policies are not changing as a result of the name change.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1474103/000119312517331311/d473516d497k.htm
    The point of this story is that BrandywineGlobal funds are from Legg Mason. And unlike funds from other Legg Mason subsidiaries like Western Asset Management or Royce, the BrandywineGlobal funds are purely Legg Mason creations. There were no publicly offered BrandywineGlobal funds before Legg Mason launched them.
    That makes DHHIX different from other BrandywineGlobal funds. It is more like the Western Asset Management funds that carried on after the management firm was acquired. Here, Legg Mason (now Franklin Templeton) isn't acquiring Diamond Hill, but it is hiring the fund's complete management team.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57682/brandywine-global-investment-management-llc-to-acquire-diamond-hill-s-focused-high-yield-corp-cr