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  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Below is what I posted on 1/31/2020
    Performance..1 month...YTD as of 1/31/2020
    Multi
    • PDIIX……1.5.....
    • PUCZX….1.1..…
    • JMUTX....1.15....
    • JMSIX.....0.8……. (JGIAX)
    Multi(high % securitized)
    • PIMIX.....0.8….
    • EIXIX…..1.1….
    • VCFAX...1.3...
    • IOFIX.....1.8....
    • SEMMX...1.3.... (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    • DHEIX….0.6…..4.85 (ST duration, 3 year SD less than 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    • PHMIX…..2.1.....
    • NHMAX....2.7.....
    • MMHAX....2.0.…..
    • OPTAX.....2.4....
    • ORNAX….2.6……..
    • GHYAX......2.1......
    • GWMEX….2.6…... (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    • NVHAX……1.7……. (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    • USIBX.......2.1.....
    • BCOIX......1.9…....
    • PINCX……2.1..…….
    • BND….......2.0…......
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    • EIFAX.......0.5.....
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    • IISIX..........0.7....
    • PUTIX......-0.1….
    • PAJZX……0.7….
    HY +EM
    • HYG.........-0.5.....
    • PHIYX.......0.....
    • ZEOIX……0.3…….(ST HY, 3 year SD less than 1, good as cash sub)
    • FNMIX……1.4…….
    Corporate
    • PIGIX….…2.5..….
    Preferred
    • PFINX…...1.5……
    OTHER
    • FXAIX.…..0..…(SP500)
    • PCI………0.9... (CEF)
    Rating several good choices
    Multisector+NonTrad-
    SD less than 1=SEMMX,ANFIX,ANGLX,DHEIX…
    SD less than 1.5=IISIX,TSIIX…
    SD less than 2=VCFIX,/VCFAX,JMUIX/JMUTX,PIMIX…
    SD less than 2.7=IOFIX,PUCZX,DPFNX,JMSIX
    HY Muni-…
    SD less than 2=NVHIX,WHYIX,ISHYX…
    SD less than 3=NHMRX/NHMAX,GHYIX/GHYAX,MMHIX/MMHAX
    Core+Core plus-…
    SD less than 1.5=FIJEX…
    SD less than 3=PINCX,GTO
    Observations:
    2020 OPENED WITH A BANG FOR BOND OEFs. Rates were down and many funds did nicely.
    Multi- Another good month and especially for IOFIX. SEMMX did great for its low SD.
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 2+% for a month.
    Inter term – did fantastic because rates were down
    Bank loans – are lagging
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and PUTIX fell off the cliff
    HY+EM – HYG lost money and EM did pretty well.
    Corp – This category was on fire because of the rate cut.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.
    The Multi funds I’m interested are IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PIMIX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX,PUCZX but IOFIX is usually the leader. SEMMX did very well for a very low SD fund.
    Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX,ZEOIX as a "cash sub" LT, see 3 year SD less than 1(link). In taxable, you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT. I remember so many posts in 01/2019 about MM/CD that were paying just 2-2.5%.
    ============================
    Any question or subject about bond mutual funds (not CEFs) is welcome in this thread. I will try and answer all of them.
  • Warren jumps on etf train
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3542902-buffett-jumps-on-etf-train
    Warren recently bought Voo and spy
    Wonder if he is late to the party..shoulda jump in 2009
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/18/where-to-get-income-in-a-low-yield-world/#1579902c43b8
    Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World
    Frank HolmesContributor
    -So far in 2020, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has averaged an anemic 0.01 percent when adjusted for inflation. Since the end of January, it’s actually dipped below 0 percent, trading as low as negative 0.14 percent on January 31-
    bought more FBND for Mom's retired acct
  • ostrx fund
    For cash, I would look at SEMMX or DHEAX/DHEIX. SEMMX has lower rating bonds and better performance than DHEAX (Investment grade > 80%). I call these funds "cash sub" for investors who are willing to take a calculated risk.
    See PorVis(link)
    I hardly ever hold cash/MM/CD but that's what I do and what suites my goals.
  • ostrx fund
    M* is more correct. Look at their (site).
    Investment-grade, U.S. dollar-based, absolute return-oriented strategy
    Ability to manage and hedge duration based on market conditions
    Portfolio construction and rebalancing are driven by investment decisions, not benchmark changes

    I highlight above several keywords.
    Now, do I want to invest in OSTRX?
    I would compare it to SEMMX,IISIX see PorVis(link)
    SEMMX,IISIX have better performance, SD=voltility, Sharpe, Sortino and higher income too.
  • *
    Anyone who wants to see 'only' those discussions with comments merely needs to click on the "Discussions +" category in the far left column upon logging into the Discussion Board. This negates those discussions that have had no comments since posting which may or may not be indicative of overall general interest. It also reduces the amount of scrolling needed to find a particular post. I might add that the 'Search' box also provides that capability. Readers that also want to follow a particular post can bookmark it and retrieve it quickly as well.
    One other thing - if you think that posts of interest get scrolled off of the main page to quickly for your liking you should have been a poster here back in the days of Ted who almost regularly posted conservatively 15-20 new discussions per day. If anything that is probably an understatement.
    To be honest what I really believe I am hearing you say is that you want this discussion board to operate the way you want it to or you will not participate. Obviously that's your choice but everyone else try's to play by the rules realizing that they may not be exactly what we think they should be. In my experience this is by far the friendliest discussion board you are likely to encounter IMHO.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Added vanguard 2045 and vppcx today..one bond matured
  • Are High-Yield Municipal Bonds “High Yield” or “Junk”?
    @_FD1000 yes sir indeed..gots lots divs came in from one bond called and other misc-Divs...will convert them into vgstx vppcx and vtivx (2045) since still overweight in bonds
  • Driehaus Small/Mid Cap Growth Fund in registration
    I want to give a 'shout out' to @TheShadow for providing the SEC files for new funds and status of existing funds (opens/closes). 95% of the time (except for recently), I come here just to see these filing by clicking his 'user name' and 'discussions'. One of the most useful posts in the discussions section of the site.
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ignore gold shills.
    Rebalancing is not too hard. Don't be afraid of capital gains taxes, they are at historic lows if you have little or no earned income.
    I am wary of bond funds. As I shave off my stock index fund gains little by little, I've actually been buying individual bonds of 1 to 2 year duration until recently. The offerings really dried up in January, though, and even money markets are paying more than 1-2 year near-junk-grade stuff. Once rates hit zero (and I think they will) what will happen to valuations? I dunno.
    My calculations say I can live for a few years off my for-now 3% bond ladder yield so I am buying my time. 15% cash as well, shooting for higher.
    Don't forget that I-series savings bonds pay over 2% if you are willing to hold them a long time.
  • Franklin Resources Nears All-Cash Deal to Buy Legg Mason
    A later headline - Franklin Buys Legg Mason in Effort to Survive Passive Era
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/franklin-resources-nears-cash-deal-071816557.html
    Good luck to the affected investors. I remember when my workplace 403-B withTempleton became part of the Franklin group. IMHO - the former Templeton funds lost something in the process. One benefit, however, was that Franklin picked up Mutual Shares around the same time and it did open up additional interesting opportunities.
    More recently, my small stake in Oppenheimer (started in the 90s) became part of Invesco. Both have / had higher fees, but my sense is that Invesco’s are a bit more moderate. Not a pleasant experience to go through, as at least 2 of the Oppenheimer funds I’d used previously are being merged into Invesco funds or eliminated: OUSGX, OQGAX.
  • Franklin Resources Nears All-Cash Deal to Buy Legg Mason
    Look like a done deal. Got an email this morning:
    "Legg Mason, the majority owner of Royce Investment Partners, to be acquired by Franklin Templeton
    "Transaction Structured to Ensure Continued Autonomy of Royce Organization
    New York, NY February 18, 2020 – Royce Investment Partners, a small-cap equity specialist for more than 45 years, announced that its parent company, Legg Mason, is being acquired by Franklin Templeton, a global investment management organization. Royce Investment Partners will continue to operate as an independent investment organization with its own brand to reinforce the distinctiveness of Royce’s investment culture and processes. There are no changes planned to the management of the organization or investment teams as a result of this transaction."
    Well, I've had a good nearly-20-year run with RYPNX. It was a good performer if not particularly tax efficient, and their shareholder communications were always interesting.
    I was a reluctant participant in an employer's overpriced underperforming Franklin 401k once and Franklin's on my list of hated fund companies. But I'm not tempted to bail out right away as long as their fees don't go any higher, and current management sticks around.
  • Risk and volatility measures used to evaluate funds............... Which are most useful?
    Yes it is unfortunate now it is $ 250 a year for anything but the most basic tools.
  • Fund Spy: Fund Ideas for the New Decade
    Hi @Mark
    At this time, I don't share the views in the M* write; but thank you for the link.
    Our portfolio has it's equity side in the large cap growth area with technology and the side sauce being healthcare and medical technology equity. The technology areas continue to travel the hot path. Our continued concern is what will become of the COVID19 virus and its impact on supply chain for various sectors. Tech. in particular could be an overwhelming favorite for profit taking.
    ***30 year bond yield dropped below 2%
    Side note: Much reduced Chinese tours globally is going to cause many local problems; although not directly related to most investment areas. But, money not spent; may become a problem for consumers who rely on tourism.
    Maintaining a clear and mindful eye globally.
    I mostly agree with this short write regarding potential problem areas and the continued spending by American on just about everything, apparently. Most of the restaurants in our greater metro area remain busy, even on days I thought they wouldn't.
    Folks are spending the money they have or pushing it forward with a credit card. This, in spite of what I consider being a fairly expensive market place; especially for a family dinner.
    Still sleeping without problems.
    Catch
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Rebalancing is a pretty easy task for me. Since I am not using distributions yet for expenses, I generally will put them where I want to build a position. Right now all goes into my favorite bond OEF.
    +1. Brilliant. Why didn't I think of that? :)
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    Feb 14, 2020 , Reuters Feb 14 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway:
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY TAKES SHARE STAKE OF 18.9 MILLION SHARES IN KROGER- SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN GENERAL MOTORS CO BY 3.8% TO 75.0 MILLION SHARES - SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN RH BY 41.4% TO 1.7 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP BY 153.5% TO 18.9 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC - CHANGE IN HOLDINGS ARE AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2019
  • Buying Gold: Physical Vs ETFs
    Sorry @catch, I'm missing what your point or conclusion is on owning physical gold vs an ETF. There is no load on the ETF (a .25% expense ratio though on IAU) but as you point out there is a sales charge in and out of physical gold. Is that your point that the return is less for physical?
  • MAINX Matthews bonds
    @joe74 posted some of what I was constructing below, though I may still be filling in a little:
    "other EM debt local currency funds". Is either fund primarily invested in unhedged, locally denominated debt?
    Vanguard says of its fund that "the majority of bonds are expected to be invested in in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds or hedged back to the U.S. dollar. "
    Meanwhile, until this month, Matthews benchmarked MAINX against the Markit iBoxx Asian Local Bond Index. According to the fund prospectus, Mathews just changed the fund's benchmark to 50% of this index, and 50% of J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index, which is dollar-denominated. That seems to suggest that the fund had been invested primarily in local currency bonds but has recently moved closer to a 50/50 mix (currently 54% in US dollars).
    With international investments, currency movements can play such a large role in performance that much of the difference between funds can be explained by this alone. I'm not saying that's the case here. Rather the suggestion that these are local currency funds invites checking further into how accurate that is.
    Other notable differences:
    Vanguard is virtually all sovereign debt; Matthews is 20%. (From M*'s new portfolio pages for the funds.)
    Most of the Matthews fund is invested in east/southeast Asia, with the remainder (19%) in south Asia (India, Sri Lanka), while little of Vanguard's fund is in either east/southeast Asia (5% in Indonesia, 2% in China) or south Asia (1% in India). The little exposure that Vanguard has in Asia comes from central Asia (a couple of "stans"), and from the Asian countries of the Middle East (Saudia Arabia, Bahrain, etc.). Very different regions.
    Maybe Vanguard alters its mix depending on the investment climate, or maybe these are geographically complementary funds.
    A quick check of (semi) annual reports suggests that the Vanguard fund has had consistently little interest in east/southeast/south Asia aside from Indonesia (4% - 8%).
    March 31, 2016 report
    Sept 30, 2016 report
    March 31, 2017
    Sept 30, 2017 report
    March 31, 2018 report
    Sept 30, 2018 report
    March 31, 2019 report
    Sept 30, 2019 report
  • MAINX Matthews bonds
    Appears to be primarily government debt. Higher on quality scale. Exposure in Central and South America, some Middle East and Africa. Little Asia. Not sure about duration but yields around 5%. High turnover. Also about 5x the size of MAINX though half its age.