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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Cash Flow Strategy
    Do we suppose anything in the last 13y, since 2008, the date of the article, has caused modulation of any of its core thoughts?
  • Low Road Capitalism, Mortgage Bonds and Slavery
    +1 This is the second time I have read this, and the greed/horror is just as visceral as in my first reading. Glad to see that the project creator Nikole Hannah-Jones received tenure at Howard University and brought along $20 million in funding after UNC jerked her around !
  • Cash Flow Strategy
    Nice piece. Evensky is a common sense kind of guy. I'm not sure where that excerpt came from, because it looks somewhat like a mashup of three consecutive paragraphs on p. 71 (pdf p. 9) of the cited paper. It's worth reading what's in the paper for emphasis. I've highlighted some additonal text:
    Clients think that because they are retired, the way to get income is through dividends and interest. Such thinking arises from what my partner Deena calls the “paycheck syndrome,” and it is nonsense. ...
    ... if clients depend on income largely from their bond portfolios, then when interest rates go up, they feel rich. But what is actually happening to the value of their portfolio? It is going down. When interest rates go down, they feel poor, but the portfolio value is going up. The strategy runs counter to financial reality. ...
    People need real income. They need real cash flow, not nominal cash flow, and they do not get that real cash flow from an income portfolio.
    In a nutshell, this is why I (and some other posters here) focus on total return, not yield.
    See also M*, Income vs. Total Return: Who Says You Need to Take Sides?
    Needless to say, I also like what he has to say about Monte Carlo analysis:
    [T]here is nothing new about it. ... I think it has been misused and overused. ...
    I see several problems ... First, the increased number of guesses that Monte Carlo allows does not mean more accuracy. Second, Monte Carlo devalues the goal-setting process. Third, Monte Carlo probabilities are all or nothing. If Monte Carlo says I have a 70 percent chance of success, what does the remaining 30 percent mean? Starvation? Finally, Monte Carlo offers no insight into the unexpected, such as a Katrina event or the subprime crisis.
    He goes on for several paragraphs with examples and ways to address his concerns.
    The cash flow strategy described may be better known as the two bucket strategy:
    The first bucket strategy was developed by financial planning pioneer Harold Evensky in 1985. This was a two-bucket approach with a cash bucket holding five years of retirement spending, and a longer-term investment bucket consisting mostly of stocks. When the stock market performed poorly, withdrawals were taken from the cash account to avoid selling stocks in a down market, and when the stock market did well withdrawals were taken from the investment bucket, and investments from this bucket were also sold to replenish cash.
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/04/20/bucket-strategies-challenging-previous-research
    As a complement to the final section of the paper, Other Strategies, here's Wade Pfau's Fortune piece on managing sequence of return risk.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2017/04/12/4-approaches-to-managing-sequence-of-returns-risk-in-retirement/?sh=5bda15b66fcf
  • Low Road Capitalism, Mortgage Bonds and Slavery
    For those who haven't read it already, this is a great article that helps explain why our financial/economic system is the way it is today. It's worth reading for the connection to mortgage-backed bonds alone: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/slavery-capitalism.html
  • Cash Flow Strategy
    An excerpt from a longer writing. Both seemed worth sharing.
    E&K Cash Flow Strategy. Sometime in the early 1980s, at Evensky and Katz we developed the E&K cash flow strategy that we continue to use today. It allows us to break the paycheck syndrome -The traditional withdrawal strategy for retirement is the income portfolio. It is a deeply flawed strategy, and any financial adviser who recommends income portfolios should cease and desist. Clients think that because they are retired, the way to get income is through dividends and interest. Such thinking arises from what my partner Deena calls the “paycheck syndrome,” by providing clients with a regular cash flow that they can depend on. Typically, it also includes an inflation adjustment because pay typically goes up with inflation.
    To implement the cash flow strategy, we bifurcate the portfolio into two components—the cash flow reserve and the investment portfolio. The cash flow reserve portfolio is made up of two parts: two years’ worth of cash flow and any amounts needed for lump-sum expenses—a wedding, a new car, for instance—over the next five years. We base this amount on our five-year planning model. We do not believe in investing in stocks or bonds unless we have a five-year window in which to decide when to sell. We thereby mitigate the timing risk because we have control over the timing.

    Retirement_Income_Redesigned_Master_Plans_for_Distribution
  • Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5B, in comparison Romney was a piker
    Had Theil bought these shares in a taxable account the $5 Billion would also be mostly tax free to his heirs
    Perhaps $3B would have been passed tax free to his heirs, after accounting for the 40% federal estate tax. While there are ways to circumvent estate taxes, my figure is based on procedure in the diagram.
    I'm missing the connection to "stuffing" IRAs, an at best dubious and at worst illegal practice, to address @catch22's statement that "No law was broken".
    Again from ProPublica:
    Thiel’s unusual stock purchase risked running afoul of rules designed to prevent IRAs from becoming illegal tax shelters. Investors aren’t allowed to buy assets for less than their true value through an IRA. The practice is sometimes known as “stuffing” because it gets around the strict limits imposed by Congress on how much money can be put in a Roth.
    PayPal later disclosed ... in an SEC filing ... that Thiel’s founders’ shares were among those the company sold to employees at “below fair value.”
    Victor Fleischer, a tax law professor at the University of California [asserted that] buying startup shares at a discounted $0.001 price with a Roth ... would be indefensible.
  • Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5B, in comparison Romney was a piker
    The problem is no one in Congress thought about putting an upper limit on Roth IRA withdrawals when they wrote the law
    Congress has done the opposite for inherited IRAs by eliminating the stretch provision for heirs. All inherited IRAs (including Roth IRAs) must be fully distributed within 10 years. This at least forces this $5 billion Roth account to be liquidated 10 years after the death of the Account holder.
    Had Theil bought these shares in a taxable account the $5 Billion would also be mostly tax free to his heirs based on the step up provision that:
    When someone inherits property and investments, the IRS resets the market value of these assets to their value on the date of the original owner’s death. Then, when the heir sells these assets, capital gains taxes are applied based on this reset value. The result is a situation – often considered a tax loophole – that allows investors to pass assets to their heirs virtually tax-free.
    image
    https://darrowwealthmanagement.com/blog/step-up-in-basis-on-certain-inherited-assets/
    Also,
    If President Biden gets his way, many wealthy Americans will no longer be able to pass stocks, real estate, and other capital assets to their heirs when they die without paying capital gains tax. He wants to do this by changing the tax rules that allow a "step up" in basis on inherited property. This proposal, along with others designed to increase taxes on the wealthy, is included in Biden's recently released American Families Plan – a $1.8 trillion package that includes spending on childcare and education, guaranteed paid family and medical leave, tax breaks for lower- and middle-income Americans, and more.
    https://kiplinger.com/retirement/estate-planning/602701/biden-hopes-to-eliminate-stepped-up-basis-for-millionaires
  • Dfa plans its first bond ETFs
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/07/08/dfa-plans-its-first-bond-etfs/
    What You Need to Know
    The firm is planning four bond ETFs — two investment-grade bond ETFs, one TIPS ETF and one municipal bond fund.
    All four ETFs are actively managed and have total operating expenses ranging from 0.11% to 0.19%.
    In separate news, DFA is also planning to consolidate two tax-managed equity mutual funds.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Was looking for a HY bond fund that had held up decently ("defensive?") in 1Q 2020. Found EIXIX with a 5.5% SEC Yield. $2,500 min at VGD (TF). May be my newest addition.
    Seeing that you have the Rational options fund, fyi, they have a non-ag'y mortgage fund too, RFXIX I shares, which is relatively new but has about the same total return profile so far as EIXIX. Just found it so no due diligence dive into it yet on my part.
    Availability prob'ly varies; at Fidelity the I shares are, with low minimum and a tf.
    Cheers, AJ
  • Last weeks link to Yahoo Finance didn't work, I'm trying Web version this try.
    https://newsletters.yahoo.net/H/2/v60000017a903048fd8914bef4bbe5bf30/a3abade4-a208-484d-935e-a3560e99bffb/HTML
    "And yet there are at least two factors that are potentially different this time around; cryptocurrency and the meme stock phenomenon. I won’t dwell on crypto — and all of its potential and foibles — here, but will focus instead on meme stocks and more broadly, the so-called retail investor revolution"
    Will the link work ?!
    Stay Kool, Derf
  • Fidelity ETFs in registration
    Normally investing at least 80% of the fund’s assets in securities included in the Fidelity Clean Energy Index℠ and in depositary receipts representing securities included in the index. The Fidelity Clean Energy Index℠ is designed to reflect the performance of a global universe of companies across the market capitalization spectrum that distribute, produce or provide technology or equipment to support the production of energy from solar, wind, hydrogen and other renewable sources.
    These ETFs will be passively managed to their respective indices. Blackrock iShares have few similar ETFs but not all. For example, iShares Global Clean Energy, ICLN and the YTD is negative 17%. Have to do your homework and see how many of the underlying companies produce products and services that are profitable.
  • Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5B, in comparison Romney was a piker
    founding shares with cost base that costs penny
    Here's where one of those factors of 10 comes from ...
    SEC filings ... show that he bought his first slice of the company in January 1999. Thiel paid $0.001 per share — yes, just a tenth of a penny — for 1.7 million shares. At that price, he was able to buy a large stake for just $1,700.
  • Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5B, in comparison Romney was a piker
    Even with the best scenario you posted above with Apple, you can do so much. But the ability to get founding shares with cost base that costs penny would make a much bigger impact. The difference between million and billion is 1,000 times.
  • Mid-Year Update Brings Rolling Batting Averages and Trend Ratings
    AVEFX, CET, DODWX, BMPEX, ICMUX, FCEF, BIVIX, QSPIX, QMNIX among funds leading their categories mid-year:
    image
  • Thiel's Roth IRA is worth $5B, in comparison Romney was a piker
    I know I promised no quotes, but it's not accurate that "anyone here who is or was an excellent investor could have invested in their choice in 1999."
    Mr. Thiel purchased his founders’ shares in PayPal through his Roth IRA during PayPal’s formation.
    I've purchased founders shares, though they usually turned out to be worth about what I paid for them, i.e. nothing. Is there "anyone [else] here who ... could have invested in" founders shares in 1999?
    Regarding AAPL, even if we assume $6K contributions per year (they were limited to $2K in 1999 and only gradually rose to the current $6K in 2019), an account would have grown to less than $16 million. Thus at $2K/year, the account would have grown to well under $6 million.
    While one may talk about the "magic of compounding", the magic that's available to "anyone here" only gets you so far.
    Porfolio Visualizer AAPL backtest (with $6K annual contributions)
  • Rochdale Emerging Markets Portfolio (formerly City National Rochdale Emerging Markets Fund) changes
    The first fund profile I wrote for MFO in Oct. '16 was about the City National Rochdale EM when I interviewed Mr. Chatterjee. He made it clear right at the outset that if I was going to quote him that everything I wrote would have to be checked by his compliance department. In fact, beyond checking for factual accuracy and misrepresentations, they have no control over what financial writers publish. I also ran into this issue with another fund company spokesperson. When I told him that David would review my article for possible changes, the guy said that he would have to see it before we could publish it. David then addressed him personally about his demands, emphasizing the independence of financial writers, factual accuracy, and misrepresentations. One lesson David urged me to do is to avoid compliance departments -- period! Beyond these two issues, I didn't have any difficulty with fund managers and found the writing very enjoyable despite the work involved.
  • Fidelity ETFs in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945908/000137949121003042/filing712.htm
    Fidelity Clean Energy ETF
    Fidelity Cloud Computing ETF
    Fidelity Digital Health ETF
    Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation ETF