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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings updates to MFO Premium site using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 22 August 2025.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    Just be aware with securitized (MBS) funds.....SYFFX lost -31% in 1Q 2020, as many of these funds were crushed at the time. That's why I don't hold more HOSIX.
    It's not that history will repeat, but it can.
    Good observation. I normally don’t look further than 5 years (and place more emphasis on 3 year returns), and don’t look at individual quarters that far back. so I probably would have missed that. That is also something to consider.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    Brilliant choice with SYFFX, according to the numbers, @chinfist. I just put it on my watch-list. It's at a 52-week high at the moment.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    @Observant1, why did you sell River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund RCTIC?
    Not Observant, but I also used to own RCTIX. It underwent manager changes a few years ago, the performance started to suffer, and there seemed to be some uncertainty. So I sold it. It later improved and recovered. The fund is 55% securitized. When I was thinking about getting back into the fund, I saw that SYFFX, a securitized fund, was outperforming RCTIX. SYFFX outperforms RCTIX at every trailing period I look at. So if I when considering RCTIX, which has more than 50% exposure to the securitized sector (a sector I was underexposed to), I thought that I might as well go with a dedicated securitized fund that has performed better.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    Global Wellington (VGWLX/ VGWAX) or Wellesley (VGWIX / VGYAX)?
    I agree that one will rarely go wildly wrong with Wellington management. I think it is difficult to go with one fund, or even three, if one expects to have asset allocations change as market conditions change. Not to sound discouraging here, but the more one wants a portfolio to have a certain mix, the harder it is to satisfy that with a single fund.
    When you say that you'd like a fund with more foreign securities, it sounds to me either that you'd like a fund that actively adjusts foreign vs. domestic, or that you'd like a fund that holds a fixed, larger percentage foreign securities; I'm guessing the former.
    With that in mind here are WGWLX's VGWLX 's foreign vs. domestic common stock ratios over time:
    Aug 31, 2019: 46% foreign (34.7% domestic out of 64.8% total common stock)
    August 31, 2020: 40% foreign (39.2% domestic out of 65.1% common stock)
    August 31, 2021: 41% foreign (38.3% domestic out of 65.1% common stock)
    August 31, 2022: 40% foreign (38.9% domestic out of 64.9% common stock)
    August 31, 2023: 42% foreign (38.1% domestic out of 65.2% common stock)
    August 31, 2024: 47% foreign (34.8% domestic out of 65.5% common stock)
    Feb 28, 2025: 44% foreign (36.2% domestic out of 64.8% common stock)
    June 30, 2025: 44% foreign (36.37% domestic equity out of 65.36% total equity)
    Some tweaking perhaps, but perhaps also more a reflection of issue selection than a conscious move offshore. Hard to tell at this 10,000 foot level.
    My larger concern with an all in one fund is what bonds do or don't do for you. Certainly they add ballast (temper moves both up and down) whether they are part of an all in one fund or in a pure bond fund. What they also can provide is insurance against sequence of return risk. If the market does well, all fine and good and one can keep whatever allocation one is targeting. But when the market swoons, the bond (or cash) portion of a portfolio can serve as a reserve - as a place from which to draw needed cash until the market recovers. One can do that with a separate bond (cash) fund; one can't do that with an allocation fund.
    I'm playing around with simplifying my portfolio. Aside from some small/mid cap holdings for spice and MMFs/T-bills for cash, I'm trying out a four fund portfolio. A bond fund (for the reason noted above), a domestic allocation fund (for professional management of fixed income percentage), a global stock fund (for professional management of foreign equity percentage), and a domestic equity fund (see Warren Buffett :-)). I've had to add a foreign equity fund to increase foreign holdings - the same issue you're facing. Right now I'd rather add that foreign fund than move some of the domestic fund into the global fund.
    Reiterating what I said at the outset - the fewer funds one has, the more difficult it is to get a desired allocation, especially as one changes the target over time.
  • GMO Latest
    Grantham has been wrong for over 15 years.
    Hussman and Arnott have been wrong for as long.
    These people forgot that markets collapse many times based on special conditions/situations.
    2008-MBS
    2018-Fed raised rates 3-4 times within a year.
    2020-Covid
    2022-Inflation made the Fed raise rates very rapidly.
    Valuation models aren’t gospel. They’re frameworks, often rigid ones. Markets don’t “obey” a PE ratio, a CAPE model, or any single metric. They move based on flows, positioning, liquidity, sentiment, and risk appetite — none of which those “experts” fully capture.
    Articulation ≠ expertise. Some people build reputations on talking smoothly on CNBC or writing clever papers. But if you look under the hood, their track records are mediocre or not disclosed at all. A true expert has numbers behind them, not just words.
    Macro talk rarely drives short-term results. Tariffs, inflation debates, and political narratives — they sound convincing, but the link between those stories and stock prices in the next 1–12 months is weak. Liquidity and momentum can swamp those factors.
    The real experts are rare. They don’t talk much because they’re too busy managing money. They know the limits of prediction and don’t oversell their opinions.
    So, how can anyone listen or invest with these guys?
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    Well Warren Buffett suggests two funds as we all know, an S&P500 index fund and another of short term Treasury bonds. If you think Wellington has an advantage then go with them. I have never entertained the idea of a one fund portfolio except for what my daughter inherits when the time comes. She simply has no interest.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    This is the title of a thread at Bogleheads started on Aug 12, 2019 and still alive as of Aug 21, 2025.As of that date there are 1123 posts. Of course the Boglehead orthodoxy is the three fund portfolio and here at MFO the number of funds held in one portfolio in limitless. I have been toying with going one fund and every time I speak to DW about our assets that desire is increased. One day she is going to wake up and need a new asset manager in the family office. Right now my I am thinking about Vanguard Global Wellesley. VGWLX. Managed by Wellington and they might be smarter than me. My reservation is that it doesn’t have enough EX US assets . I am partially divesting of US assets but that is another discussion. Anyone else thinking about becoming a one funder? You will lose a hobby but ,,,,,,,,
  • prwcx expands # 'co-managers'
    Link to Barron's Roundtable discussion for those without a subscription.
    Roundtable
  • GMO Latest
    I can understand how high valuations can impede a rise in the U.S. stock market, but whatever happened to the concept that a weaker dollar benefits U.S. stocks, at least stocks of companies that export (which I would guess would not be an insignificant percentage of the S&P 500). Do tariffs now negate this?
  • Walmart and Other Retailers Have Eaten the Cost of Tariffs. Now It Is the Consumer’s Turn.
    It would be educational to understand price mark up since the tariffs are assessed on the landed price, not the retail price that we all pay.
    In @Old_Joe 's stool example:
    What did Amazon pay (plus the tariff) for the stool landed?
    Many products are marked up 25%-100% to the wholesaler and then the wholesaler marks the item up another 100% or more to determine the retail price (what we pay).
    My point is that a 30% tariff (Chinese tariff) on a landed $1 product would equate to $1.30 landed (w/tariff). This would mean the wholesale price would be $2.30 (tariff passed through at a 100% markup to the wholesaler. Finally the wholesaler passes the tariff on to the retail price which doubled again (100% mark up) making the consumer price $4.30.
    So, what you paid yesterday without the tariff at $4, is $4.30 today with the tariff. This would be about a 7% increase from yesterday's retail price based on a 30% tariff on the landed price (please check my math). So @Old_Joe 's 8% is pretty close.
    I just wanted to point out the math regarding tariff on landed price verses what increase the consumer pays retail.

    Q: Where does tariff money go when collected and where does it go?

    https://govfacts.org/federal/commerce/so-where-does-tariff-money-go/

    How is it Collected?
    A persistent misconception about tariffs is that they’re paid by the foreign countries whose goods are being taxed. In fact, the financial responsibility for paying a U.S. tariff falls squarely on the U.S. importer of record. This is the American company, business, or individual that is legally bringing the goods into the country. The money is paid directly to the U.S. government.
    While the U.S. government collects the tax from the American importer, the private contract between the foreign seller and the U.S. buyer can specify who ultimately bears the cost. These arrangements are governed by international commercial terms, or Incoterms.
    For example, under terms known as Delivered Duty Paid (DDP), the foreign seller agrees to cover all costs, including the tariff, to get the goods to the buyer’s destination. Conversely, under terms like Delivered at Place (DAP), the U.S. buyer is responsible for paying the import duties upon arrival.
    Regardless of this private agreement, the check is written to the U.S. government by the registered U.S. importer.
    These importers then face a choice: absorb the extra cost, which reduces their profit margins, or pass the cost along to their customers—wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately, American consumers—in the form of higher prices. Economic analyses consistently show that the vast majority of tariff costs are passed on to domestic consumers.
    Where does it go?
    Once CBP deposits the tariff money, its journey as a distinct “tariff dollar” ends. It flows into a vast financial reservoir from which nearly all federal government spending is paid.
    Q: Does this resemble a VAT (Value Added Tax)?
  • Everyone Says Equities Are Overvalued, So They’re Piling In - from Bloomberg
    the runup astounds and continues to astound, 2d-highest shiller and 5th-highest sp500 p/e (if I am reading the graphs right)
    man, hard not to dive back in !
    Might be some wisdom in d-c-a-ing. US is too rich. DHL (ADR) has been mentioned. And what I see in EM bonds shows less yield than domestic junk. But rates just might be coming down soon. That's what the party today was all about.
  • Everyone Says Equities Are Overvalued, So They’re Piling In - from Bloomberg
    the runup astounds and continues to astound, 2d-highest shiller and 5th-highest sp500 p/e (if I am reading the graphs right)
    man, hard not to dive back in !
  • Calamos Dividend Growth Fund being reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465925081931/tm2522521d4_497.htm
    497 1 tm2522521d4_497.htm 497
    CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Calamos Dividend Growth Fund
    Supplement dated August 22, 2025 to the
    CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of
    Additional Information,
    each dated February 28, 2025, as supplemented
    This supplement should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus for Calamos Dividend Growth Fund (the “Target Fund”), the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for Calamos Investment Trust (the “Trust”).
    At an adjourned meeting of the shareholders of the Target Fund held on August 22, 2025, shareholders approved the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Target Fund into Calamos Growth and Income Fund (the “Acquiring Fund”), each a series of the Trust.
    Under the terms of the Agreement and Plan of Reorganization, the Target Fund will transfer all of its assets to the Acquiring Fund in exchange solely for shares of the corresponding class of the Acquiring Fund and the assumption by the Acquiring Fund of all of the liabilities of the Target Fund in complete liquidation and termination of the Target Fund. Shares of each class of the Acquiring Fund will be distributed proportionately to shareholders of the relevant class of the Target Fund. Following the Reorganization, the Target Fund’s shareholders will hold shares of the Acquiring Fund.
    It is expected that the Reorganization will be completed on or about August 29, 2025.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference
  • Walmart and Other Retailers Have Eaten the Cost of Tariffs. Now It Is the Consumer’s Turn.
    I ordered a small 17" step-stool about three weeks ago from Amazon.
    Cost: $21.18.
    I ordered another of the same item today.
    Cost: $22.98.
    Increase: $1.80 / 8.5%
    Good luck, Mr. Powell.
  • Where to Invest Right Now: How to Profit From a Weak US Dollar - Bloomberg

    Korea Post and Sweden’s PostNord are getting into the "no shipments to US" game.
    Yeah, that dividend looks really tasty, for sure ... I was/am tempted! Though its nearly 100% payout ratio is worth keeping an eye on....
  • Where to Invest Right Now: How to Profit From a Weak US Dollar - Bloomberg

    Korea Post and Sweden’s PostNord are getting into the "no shipments to US" game.
    I bought into DHLGY a few months ago. They're the go-to folks in Europe and also are popular in RoW. Nice dividend and besides the German witholding I get back on my taxes anyway.
    Fedex/UPS are mainly US-centric players that will feel the hit of any US recession/stagflation or decision by non-US companies to use non-US providers to ship things around the world.
    I am still thinking about DHLGY but bought some UPS in the meantime. I agree that FedEx/UPS are more US-centric but those shipments refused by national posts have to go somewhere and US carriers should get their share. Plus, UPS looked to be on a bit of a sale after the recent earnings miss and dividend yield up to ~ 7.5%.