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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Russia Now Going for Poland Perhaps.
    Below are extensive excerpts from a current article in The Economist. The article focuses on the parallels with the Soviet Union under Stalin. I've seriously abridged the article to include some of the more serious points that it makes.
    Of those points, I think that this is one of the most important: "American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four."
    When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he dreamed of restoring the glory of the Russian empire. He has ended up restoring the terror of Josef Stalin. That is not only because he has unleashed the most violent act of unprovoked aggression in Europe since 1939, but also because, as a result, he is turning himself into a dictator at home.
    Consider how the war was planned. Russia’s president thought Ukraine would rapidly collapse, so he did not prepare his people for the invasion or his soldiers for their mission. After two terrible weeks on the battlefield, he is still denying that he is waging what may become Europe’s biggest war since 1945. He has shut down almost the entire independent media, threatened journalists with up to 15 years in jail if they do not parrot official falsehoods, and had anti-war protesters arrested in their thousands.
    And to gauge Mr Putin’s paranoia, imagine how the war ends. Russia has more firepower than Ukraine. It is still making progress, especially in the south. It may yet capture the capital, Kyiv. And yet, even if the war drags on for months, it is hard to see Mr Putin as the victor.
    Suppose that Russia manages to impose a new government. Ukrainians are now united against the invader. Mr Putin’s puppet could not rule without an occupation, but Russia does not have the money or the troops to garrison even half of Ukraine. American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four.
    The truth is sinking in that, by attacking Ukraine, Mr Putin has committed a catastrophic error. He has wrecked the reputation of Russia’s supposedly formidable armed forces, which have proved tactically inept against a smaller, worse-armed but motivated opponent. Russia has lost mountains of equipment and endured thousands of casualties, almost as many in two weeks as America has suffered in Iraq since it invaded in 2003.
    And, as Stalin did, Mr Putin is destroying the bourgeoisie, the great motor of Russia’s modernisation. Instead of being sent to the gulag, they are fleeing to cities like Istanbul, in Turkey, and Yerevan, in Armenia. Those who choose to stay are being muzzled by restrictions on free speech and free association. They will be battered by high inflation and economic dislocation. In just two weeks, they have lost their country.
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    Nasty day Friday. One pundit (supposed market authority) I follow recently acknowledged owning a “speculative” position in Overstock (OSTK). So, I started tracking it. Down over 10% Friday alone. And DKNG, which I once messed around with, was off 8.35% Friday - down to $16 from a year earlier high around $75. There were many “authorities” recommending the stock 6-7 months ago at north of $50 - as well as a lot of institutional ownership back than. TRP was one of the largest shareholders.
    I don’t pretend to understand this game. If I’ve learned anything from life’s experiences it is to be careful about buying down or doubling down on anything. If you want to take a gambit on these high octane stocks, ISTM a fund is preferable to individual stocks.
    Thanks for the reminder ARKK is an ETF. Still hard to get my head around having been limited to traditional mutual funds until quite recently.
  • Ping the Board
    Hi guys,
    Just some thoughts.....things that have held at least for now in the portfolio.
    FDVV: bought 10-21.....still up for now at least.
    FSPCX: buys from July through December 2021. Still up.....this is something I will add to, I think.
    FICDX: bought 1-22.....still up also. Again, hoping to add later.
    Again, not bragging. I could tell you some sad stories too......lol. Am looking for some REITs or PP&L. Would like your thoughts on these things. If you have some gems that have held up lately, would love to hear of them.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    KWEB fell -9.98% just on Friday on dual fears: 1) The SEC starting to list Chinese companies that may be delisted, 2) On realization after Russia-Ukraine war what a huge disaster any China-Taiwan flareup may mean for the huge China weight in the EMs.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KWEB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96832865403
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    "The KWEB (KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) fell 49.99% in calendar 2021 and is down another 38% YTD in 2022 as of Friday, March 11th." Racing to the bottom?
  • Russia Now Going for Poland Perhaps.
    Not quite sure what Sullivan means by "respond" in the following short article and video clip. Future Russian actions may draw out an answer if negotiations don't produce results.
    Sullivan added that an attack on NATO territory—even an accidental shot—the "NATO alliance would respond to that."
    Jake Sullivan: U.S. will defend "every inch of NATO territory" as Russia strikes western Ukraine
  • Russia Now Going for Poland Perhaps.
    10 miles from Polish border. If a full on attack occurs, expect more downside and perhaps a broader more terrible war. Yet peace negotiators are “cautiously optimistic.” Strange. https://google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/russia-missile-ukraine-base-10-miles-poland-nato/amp/
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?
    Hmmm … Not to make too fine a point of it, but the S&P lost less than 1% in 2015. It was preceded in 2014 by an 11% gain and followed in 2016 by a 9.5% gain. There may have been a bear market in there somewhere, but I don’t remember it.
    - 2007-2009 was one of the worst bear markets in history based on peak to trough. But one of the shortest based on duration.
    - A more recent nasty stretch was in 2018 when the S&P lost 6.24% for the year, most of that in the 4th quarter.
    - Than there was the first quarter of 2020 when we fell off a cliff. However, by year end markets had recovered.
    Why we snapped out of recent bears or corrections I can’t answer. But I’d say your “Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion” are all somewhat correct. To pick just one, I’d guess the highly accommodative Fed was the single biggest contributor. Therein lies the problem today. With short term rates so low and inflation rising the Fed might not be able to ride to the rescue next time as it has in the recent (10-15 year) past.
    S&P Performance By Year
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    One risk not mentioned is ETFs tend to liquidate at the lowest popularity (worst time) for the theme on which they are built. ARKK with $17b AUM is not anywhere near liquidation. This risk is not relevant to traders but it is for buy and holders.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?
  • Forsyth’s in top form this week …. :) Plus - Recession Approaching & 70s Style Inflation …
    Excerpt:
    “It was a lot more fun to be in your 20s in the ’70s than to be in your 70s in the ’20s. Not that I would know personally (yet), but this wry baby boomer lament, making its rounds on the internet, hits uncomfortably close to home. I don't actually associate the 1970s with fun, but rather prices running ahead of my paycheck, of queuing in gasoline lines on odd or even days, of not having enough cash for the items in my shopping cart, and of living in Brooklyn because it was cheap long before it was chic.”
    Forsyth’s general tone is that various economic indicators are signaling an approaching recession. He also sees many parallels between today and the inflationary 70s.
    Here’s a bit more substance
    “By the calculations of J.P. Morgan's global quantitative and derivatives team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the U.S. equity market has priced in a recession probability of 50%, while the investment-grade bond market has discounted a 43% probability of a recession. The high-yield (aka junk) bond market has priced a relatively small 17% probability of recession.”
    “Up & Down Wall Street: Two Headed Monster - Recession Rumbles Get Louder as Impact Of Stimulus Fades” - by Randall W. Forsyth - Barron’s March14, 2022
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    Deferred income annuities (DIAs) can be used for any purpose, LTC included. DIA from IRA, 401k/403b are called QLAC - there used to be a thorny RMD issue for DIAs from deferred accounts and laws were streamlined a few years ago to eliminate those complications (but their amounts are limited).
    True, deferred annuity is just an accumulation annuity with tax deferral. So, the subject line of the OP doesn't reflect the point of the linked article.
  • Kyla Scanlon - Taking Some Sense to Make a Nickel
    I will bet a nickel that the energy costs to melt that nickel are now greater than the remaining 11.25 cents
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    I suggest you change the title. Deferred income annuities (DIAs) are essentially immediate annuities where the payments are deferred, in contrast to SPDAs, where annuitization is deferred.
    FINRA: "Think of DIAs as immediate annuities with a delayed payout phase."
    IMHO the deferred income annuities make sense for LTC, deferred annuities may not.
    It's important to read LTC statistics very closely. Some refer to care in facilities, while others include in-home care. Some refer to paid care (including in-home care), others include care provided by friends and family. The typical out of pocket costs are not small, but may be less than presented as "average". Still, if one does happen to live for many years needing care, the costs can be astronomical.
    I don't have time right now to sort through various numbers, so I'll just offer a few sources:
    https://www.consumeraffairs.com/health/long-term-care-statistics.html
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1013929/100-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care-pandemic-edition
    https://acl.gov/ltc/basic-needs/how-much-care-will-you-need
    https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/long-term-services-supports-older-americans-risks-financing-research-brief-0
    Recognizing that most people either use long term care for just a few years or not at all, the Partnership for Long Term Care program can be a good alternative. These are regular long term care policies (with some government imposed conditions, like incorporating inflation adjustments), but with an added benefit. You buy policies that last for a few years (exact terms set by your state), and should you need more care, you can be covered by Medicaid without spending down all your assets.
    It's hard to find a decent description that is not state-specific because these programs partner with state run Medicaid. I did come up with one reasonable page. A brief excerpt:
    Medicaid is the single largest payer of nursing home bills in America. Although it's intended to be the last resort for people who have no other way to pay for long-term care services, more and more Americans with moderate incomes are relying on Medicaid, due to the rapidly rising cost of long-term care.
    ...
    Partnership policies include incentives to encourage individuals to purchase long-term care insurance, instead of relying on Medicaid. Although any resident of a state in which Partnership policies are offered can purchase such a policy, state Partnership programs primarily target individuals with moderate income and assets. These are individuals who can afford reasonable long-term care insurance premiums but who can't afford to pay for long-term care out-of-pocket for more than a short period of time, and thus may eventually need to rely on Medicaid after their assets are exhausted. (Wealthier individuals often don't need to rely on Medicaid in the first place, and individuals with very limited means will likely qualify for Medicaid right away, and may have few assets to protect.)
    https://pksadvisors.com/long-term-care-partnership-policies/
  • My Commodities Basket got clobbered today - DBC
    Commodities will work until they don’t. Like equities, they are prone to boom and bust cycles. No way to predict how long this bull cycle will run. I looked at the James Stack charts / suggested allocations this morning to make sure I wasn’t wildly underexposed. Turns out I’m more or less in line with Stack’s view (though I can’t vouch for his abilities). In mid February he had 4% in materials, 4% in energy and 5% in gold.
    Yes. We have inflation. Even during the inflation of the 70s and 80s there were boom and bust cycles in energy, gold and other commodities. It’s not an automatic given they will always rise along with inflation. And, if your mutual fund manager is on the job, he / she should have exposure to commodity producing or selling companies or companies that stand to benefit from it. Some recent references on the board to John Deere being held in commodity or AG funds illustrate that point that a seemingly non-commodity company can in fact help hedge against commodity inflation.
    I do wish I’d followed Stack’s recommendation to avoid fixed income and put 25% in cash. Looking back several weeks, that would have been the right move. I plan to subscribe to the 3-month trial when the new issue is released March 18 as I found the reading stimulating.
    My earlier link to free InvestTech offer
    BTW - @MikeM is spot on about needing to hedge your bets in these markets. Commodities / precious metals are but one of several approaches one can use. But that’s for another discussion.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    Revisiting TRP Emerging Europe (TREMX) one week later finds the fund up around 1%, YTD -85.27% compared to -86.24%. AUM down to $23 million according to M* today. From what I recall last Saturday on the TRP website, AUM were something like $145 million +/-, but I'm not sure as of what date that was.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    Thanks @hank , much appreciated. Badgers got booted last night ! Thinking All American wasn't 100% so he will get some much needed rest along with the rest of the team before Big Dance starts.
  • Kyla Scanlon - Taking Some Sense to Make a Nickel
    Barron's notes that 5c-nickel is now worth 16.25c, but also reminds that it is illegal to melt coins.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @carew388 You may be thinking of Old Skeet and his overvalued, undervalued calculations.
    He now posts here: https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1128/old-skeets-market-briefing-2022