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Be glad you don’t own this one (PFIX)

edited July 1 in Fund Discussions
http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/etfs/performance.asp?YYY622_G33B++xjN5AzUc4z1D4ErazCbDBLcGXIWzlyYCETzzYLmgzyAfnbo2oYm86Tdu3i

A pundit I watch mentioned PFIX (Lipper score card above) as a potential buy 3-4 weeks ago. So I’ve been tracking it, just as I sometimes track funds folks here mention or buy.

The idea behind this fund makes sense. Profit from the increase in interest rates everybody and his brother (or sister) expect to be coming by shorting longer dated bonds. This fund attempts to do that. I haven’t studied the mechanics. And don’t own it. Judging by the dismal 4 week results it must be using some leverage.

Since inception (May 10, 2021): -18.9%

Last 4 weeks: -13%

Not to flagellate a fund (or anyone who might have thought it a good idea). But might be sobering, possibly instructive, for all of us to consider the difficulty “calling” interest rates. Just because everybody agrees they’re going to rise doesn’t mean they will - at least anytime soon.

Comments

  • +1 Just the name: Simplify Interest Rate Hedge! Probably should have used a term like strategic, quantitative, analytical, research, quantum. Near a 52 week low for this fund, which probably means nothing, since the fund managers don't know anything either !
  • Oh, for heaven's sake... don't be so hard on them. Everybody has to start somewhere and learn how to do stuff.
  • LOL ok I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and buy 1 share today !
  • carew388 said:

    +1 Just the name: Simplify Interest Rate Hedge! Probably should have used a term like strategic, quantitative, analytical, research, quantum. Near a 52 week low for this fund, which probably means nothing, since the fund managers don't know anything either !

    You mean like the Quadratic Interest Rate Vltly and Infltn Hdg ETF which was Vltl-as-F recently and not the smooth portfolio 'ballast' that many expected it would be?
  • I did buy one share of PFIX today at Schwab. By the way, My previously comment was completely snarky. If I'm going to get fleeced, I at least want to see some marketing genius at work extolling the expertise and experience of their analytical and strategic approach, and "simplify" doesn't work for me !
  • If you are interested, I would encourage you to read Harley Bassman's "Convexity Maven" blog. Even if you do not agree with his concerns about inflation, he is wicked smart and worth listening to. He also has a model portfolio in December with some very interesting ideas, and has been referenced frequently in Barrons, for example.

    He designed PFIX as "fire insurance" against the damage the rising interest rates can do to financial commitments that are interest rate sensitive, ie Intermediate and Long Term Bonds, or an adjustable rate mortgage for example.

    https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/convexity-maven-fire-insurance.pdf

    He sees this a a $50,000 insurance premium against a $1,000,000 portfolio of intermediate bonds, that will pay off if interest rates shot up. If you believe inflation is truly "transitory" then you do not need this insurance. Some of us remember the 70's, however.

    I think this represents the biggest tug of war going on now: Will inflation truly be transient, and all of the price increases are only the result of Covid disruptions to supply chains et. The "no increased rate or inflation" view is best summarized by Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management, who believes Treasuries will continue to rally.

    But he thinks this will happen because the feds are sucking all available capital out of the system to pay for the deficit. This does not bode well for the economy either.

    Of course we might get both: Collapsing growth and higher rates ie stagflation.
  • @rforno- I can't seem to find a listing for VTLAF anywhere...
  • edited July 2
    Old_Joe said:

    @rforno- I can't seem to find a listing for VTLAF anywhere...

    It's IVOL.

    Sorry, I was abbreviating 'Volatile as f---k' in that post as a snarky play on its name. ;)

  • @rforno- I'm well aware... was just kidding. Been my experience that with luck some "F"'s can really be VTL. :)
  • IVOL was working earlier this year but I sold my positions and took profits when it started slumping. Using JEPI in its place. Looking for these type of funds to return at least more than 50 basis points, which is what I could earn with a Marcus money market account. I look at my etf positions daily, and don't hesitate to sell, if necessary !
  • edited July 4
    Here’s another one …

    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/etfs/overview.asp?symbol=DUST.K

    DUST is down nearly 50% since inception (2010) and has lost more than 70% of its value over the last 3 years. This one bets against gold, employing 2X leverage.

    (“Rules by Which a Great Fortune May Be Reduced to a Small One”)

    With both of these funds, I think they’re meant more to be traded by experienced hands in the game than average investors. Read somewhere that some die-hard gold bulls use DUST temporarily to hedge their gains after a big run up in gold’s price. A bit disillusioning to know that some actively followed gold bulls may be shorting the stuff whille continuing to preach its virtues to their followers..

    All the above is too complex for me. I’ll stick to a conservative static allocation with occasional underweighting or over-weighting of a component plus regular rebalancing.

  • +1 hank If somebody is buying and holding DUST, then the name is appropriate for them : Dense Unusually Stupid Traders !
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