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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (08/20/25)
    Put These Charts on Your Wall (2025 Edition)
    Video
    Blog
  • Trump has bought more than $100m in bonds while president, disclosure shows
    The following is excerpted from a current report in The Guardian:
    Forms posted online show Trump made over 600 financial purchases the day after he was inaugurated for second term
    Donald Trump has bought more than $100m in company, state and municipal bonds since taking office in January, according to new disclosures which shed further light on the vast holdings of the US’s billionaire president. The forms, posted online on Tuesday, show the Republican former real estate mogul made more than 600 financial purchases since 21 January, the day after he was inaugurated for his second term in the White House.
    They include corporate bonds from Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, as well as Meta, Qualcomm, the Home Depot, T-Mobile USA and UnitedHealth Group.
    Other debt purchases include various bonds issued by cities, states, counties and school districts as well as gas districts, and other issuers. The holdings cover sectors that could benefit from US policy shifts under his administration, such as financial deregulation.
    A senior White House official said Trump continued to file mandatory disclosures about his investment portfolio but that neither he nor his family had a role in managing or selecting the bonds, which are managed by a third-party financial institution.
    “President Trump’s net worth has increased substantially, with much of that concentrated in crypto holdings and Trump Media. Given that, there is no evidence currently that his bond purchases are anything other than a prudent diversification within his billions of dollars in assets,” said John Canavan, lead US analyst at Oxford Economics.
    Trump’s annual disclosure form filed in June showed his income from various sources still ultimately accrues to the president – something that has opened him up to accusations of conflicts of interest.

    Comment:   Gee, I wonder if the value of Trmp's bonds might increase if the Fed lowered interest rates?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    image
    Hey everybody, an old man is talking!
  • The Calculus of Value (Howard Marks)
    Bloomberg interview
    a2z,
    He wouldn’t directly answer question about debt outside USA. Why doesn’t he just say I don’t want to worry about currency risk?
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    Yes, both parties gerrymander. I should be more clear:
    Here are some state distortions at a glance:
    1. TX - GOP received 56% of the vote and received 79% seats
    2. NC - GOP received 10-11 of seats despite close vote share
    3. WI - GOP received 75% of seats with less than 50% votes
    4. OH - GOP received 75% seats with roughly 52% votes
    5. MO - GOP received 58% votes and received 87% seats
    Just some examples
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    [snip]
    According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
    Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
    That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
    The Financial Times recently published their Business Book of the Year 2025—the longlist.
    The following book was on the list.
    In Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back, Joan C Williams looks
    at the US left’s failure to challenge the rise of Trump, through the lens of workers and the working class.
    She aims to explain how that happened and how the Democratic elite might use economic and political tools
    to recover support.
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel

    My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
    Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose.
    Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.

    You may have a point, Old Joe.
    According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
    Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
    That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    Wondering if Housel is onto something with his book, Psychology of Money...also wondering if the most proficient wealth advisors are adept at managing and growing wealth but also the soft side of understanding the human mind and emotions...understanding how we are carrying around a "blueprint" from our upbringing...
    Recent convo with a health care provider friend who owns his own business...wealth advisor advised him to ladder CDs out for the next 5 years with half his monies and the other half in SP500 buffered ETN/ETF, with first 0% downside protection and upside capped at 10% annualy....maybe speaks to a balanced approach with a psychological safety net?
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    Big surprise, market P/E is near all time high so don’t do anything. Not even a 5-10% lower equity position recommendation.
  • The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017
    Bloomberg’s monthly economists’ survey for the federal budget balance in June and July 2025
    June 2025 $20 billion surplus Bloomberg LP Fiscal Forecast Survey (survey closed May 30, 2025)
    July 2025 $275 billion deficit Bloomberg LP Fiscal Forecast Survey (survey closed June 27, 2025)
    Actual numbers were $27B surplus in June and deficit of $291B.
    That’s pretty accurate.
    But you need the Bloomberg Terminal, not some random unsourced quote from TikTock. Better save up for that yearly $24,000 terminal access.
    These consensus figures reflect the median of roughly two dozen U.S. fiscal experts polled via the Bloomberg Terminal (“ECO” survey function). If you have terminal access, you can retrieve the full survey breakdown—including high, low, and standard deviation—by searching for the “US BUDGET” economic indicator in the survey module.
  • The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017
    $291B Federal Budget Deficit for July 2025. There goes the budget.
    Don’t listen to economists or weather forecasters.
    In June 2015 Bipartisan Policy Center predicted that "...the government will likely run a larger deficit in July, as there are no quarterly tax deposits due that month." This qualitative forecast proved to be accurate.
    https://www.pgpf.org/programs-and-projects/fiscal-policy/current-debt-deficit/
    https://mises.org/mises-wire/federal-debt-surges-july-trumps-spending-spree-continues
  • The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017
    June estimate from two reliable source did not predict a massive deficit for June 2025.
    Congressional Budget Office (CBO): As a primary and authoritative source, the CBO, in its "Monthly Budget Review" published on June 1, 2025, estimated a surplus of $26 billion for the month. This forecast was highly accurate.
    Bipartisan Policy Center: In its "Deficit Tracker," this Washington D.C.-based think tank also anticipated a surplus for June. They highlighted that the positive figure would be driven by the influx of quarterly tax receipts from individuals and corporations.
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    The country is ideologically split. Ignorant and racist white males---many of them--- resent losing pride of place. So, they're engaging in a backlash. Criminal Doctor Orange feeds them the pap they want to hear. He's of the same ilk. Ignorant women, as well. As long as they're MAGA, the Orange Doink doesn't care.
    So many voters spent their ballot on a man-child who is immature, spineless, ignorant; he is a Superfund site dressed up like a human. They are dragging down the country, and the rest of us along with them. And project 2025? If ever there was a recipe to subvert the USA...
    But the Market possesses no more of a conscience than many of the voters. It will carry on apart from the politics, until it can't... How big is that deficit by now? And in 10 more years? Ask the CBO. By then, it will hardly be worth counting. The Orange coup continues apace, from within. It's an undeclared Civil War again.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    damn
    PRPFX has outperformed PRWCX the last 5y, everyone's hard-on here for over that period of time ! --- good on them
    otoh FPACX has done quite a bit better than either !
    double-damn
    otoh2, if I had taken my subpar-investor father's advice in the 1980s and put moneys into FSPTX, period, full stop, and left it alone ($1k to $370k to date since early '80s !!), and then stuck with the identical advice from RWeitz a decade or so later. why, there would never be any need to follow a forum like this or read endlessly endlessly about strategy and balance and conditions so on. Whew.
    So ... persistence and patience and faith and initial good choosing mean reclamation of every bloody minute fussing w MFO.
    huh, how about that
    The milk has been spilled…
    Now we can only give advice to kids with “I will not be ignored speech”.
    PRPFX, FPACX, FSPTX, VPMCX, SGENX(Jean-Marie Eveillard’s old fund), and VOO, - DCA bi-weekly and call it a day.
  • The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017
    In its most recent “Monthly Budget Review,” the CBO said that federal spending was lower than it would have been in June because the government made billions of dollars in payments in May that were due on June 1, a Sunday. The Treasury said that some payments for active-duty military, veterans, Supplemental Security Income and Medicare were moved to May because June 1, the normal payment date, was a non-business day.
    “If not for those [timing] shifts, the government would have recorded a deficit of $71 billion in June 2025,” the CBO said, emphasizing the word deficit.
    https://www.factcheck.org/2025/07/trumps-hollow-surplus-claim/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    damn
    PRPFX has outperformed PRWCX the last 5y, everyone's hard-on here for over that period of time ! --- good on them
    otoh FPACX has done quite a bit better than either !
    double-damn
    otoh2, if I had taken my subpar-investor father's advice in the 1980s and put moneys into FSPTX, period, full stop, and left it alone ($1k to $370k to date since early '80s !!), and then stuck with the identical advice from RWeitz a decade or so later. why, there would never be any need to follow a forum like this or read endlessly endlessly about strategy and balance and conditions so on. Whew.
    So ... persistence and patience and faith and initial good choosing mean reclamation of every bloody minute fussing w MFO.
    huh, how about that
  • Mirova International Megatrends Fund was liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/770540/000119312525183437/d13056d497.htm
    497 1 d13056d497.htm NATIXIS FUNDS TRUST I - 497
    Supplement dated August 19, 2025 to the Mirova International Megatrends Fund’s Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2025, as may be revised or supplemented from time to time.
    Mirova International Megatrends Fund
    On August 19, 2025, the Mirova International Megatrends Fund (the “Fund”) was liquidated.
    The Fund no longer exists, and as a result, shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase.
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    Thanks @Mark
    Here’s What You Should Do” - By Burton G. Malkiel
    A bit presumptuous isn’t he? :)
    Agree with the scary part. Sound advice in general. I wonder if the NYT editors created the pompous sounding header?
    Author: ”Mr. Malkiel is an American economist and financial executive. His 50-year-old book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” is widely credited with popularizing stock index funds.”
    Have listened to this book on Audible and found it interesting.