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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    I think I found it after trying to figure out where an M* writer got off to.
    Mike Lee? Stan Lee? Used to cover ETF's at M*. Wrote a couple of pieces here.
    I don't follow ETF's. But I always enjoyed reading his stuff.

    I believe you are referring to Sam Lee who is a talented writer. Like you, I also enjoyed reading his
    articles. After he left Morningstar, he founded SVRN Asset Management.
    I checked out his site. Thanks for the tip.
    He had a couple of blog posts. But seems to have lost the yen to scribble for a wider audience.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    How does one keep track of their gains or losses while at the same time accounting for permanent losses from portfolio withdrawals?
    Let say I have $100K and I plan on withdrawing 4% or $4K in year one of retirement and I do that Jan 1 of that first year. My balance is now effectively $96K as a result of the distribution. To me this is a permanent loss because I am spending, not saving that 4%. Obviously my bookkeeping accounts for this withdrawal until I spend it. Maybe I buy a car with this 4% and the car goes up in value after I buy it. Maybe I blow it on Jan 2 at the casino...ouch... but these are the dynamics of spending down your portfolio. You may have something (a car worth at least $4k) or you have nothing more than a recollection of the $4K withdrawal.
    If my overall portfolio drops 10% soon after Jan 1, I now have $86.4K. My hope is that over the next 3-5 years I will recoup that 10% market loss, but I realize my withdrawal rate (4%) is now greatly impacted by my eventual portfolio balance come Jan1 of the next 3-5 years.
    Segregating 5 years worth of withdrawal might act as a drag on my potential upside performance, but might hedge my downside potential. Five years of withdrawal that include a 2% inflation adjustment would amount to $20.8K. It might be prudent to keep this amount in a conservative investment with little downside risk. That leaves a little less than $80K invested for the longer term (5 years). An average 5 year return of 5.8% would return this portfolio to its $100K value, but inflation requires a 7.9% average return in order to keep the same buying power.
    Seems to me that in retirement one needs segregate "withdrawal assets" (maybe up to 5 years worth) from "market assets". This way your withdrawals are not necessarily connected to the market's ups and downs. In 5 years, a new calculation will determine what the nest 5 years of "withdrawal assets" will amount to.
    If your are managing these dynamics in retirement please share your strategy.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    @MikeM- at least for states such as California & Virginia, the $600 additional benefit, it's the week ending July 25th is the last week, which is filed on the 26th or thereafter. I would think that would be the same for all states but I could be wrong.
    California
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    While I don’t trade off of their recommendations, I do find the gunslingers CNBC has on at noon and 5PM are often worth listening to. There’s a rotating cast of six or seven traders who do a lot more than bloviate, à la Cramer. Unfortunately, the latter is on in the morning when I check the futures and overseas markets.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...
    Much Adu About Nothing? I always operate under the assumption the market could crash anytime. As a retiree it’s a prudent assumption. Anyone who worries about that all the time probably shouldn’t own equities. As I’ve lamented before, there’s rarely any discussion of risk vs personal situation in these types of discussions. “All-in” is fine if you’re 25 years old. As our life situation evolves / changes, most financial advisors advise incrementally curtailing risk. Therein lies the problem today. Those formerly “safe” alternatives (cash & bonds) yield so little. To this, David’s discussion (July Commentary) of TMSRX is spot-on. My fear (and guess) is that like many funds that have attempted hedging with less success, money flows will be late arriving and equally late departing so that investors in general won’t fare as well as they might with a longer term commitment.
    Personally, life’s more fun when markets are crashing and I can poke around in the rubble looking for really beaten up funds. However, things “feel better” when markets are on a tear and everything’s rising. Like many here, I picked up some bargains back in March / April. While I’ve done nothing with my normal static allocation, the 10-15% in speculative holdings I initiated back than has been pared to only about 6% of portfolio as of today. Ideally, I’ll get that down to near 0 just before the next 25-35% market drubbing. :)
    Re Jim Cramer. I don’t watch him; nor do I find his circus antics particularly annoying. I’d guess his calls are probably around 50% correct. Since it’s essentially “free” TV, you get what you pay for. The one I really can’t stand is Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg in the morning. Yack. Yack. Like a chicken with his head cut off. Much exaggeration of whatever financial pin might have fallen that day. He’s enough to make me consider switching back to CNBC (except for their right wing-nuts). On the other hand, Ferro is often paired with raspy voiced Tom Keene whose inquisitive attitude and dry humor go well with morning coffee. Like coffee ... take the bitter with the sweet here.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question on the equity style allocation. Thus far into my rebalance according to Xray, LCV 31%, MCV 7%, SCV 2% ... LCB 25%, MCB 4%, SCB 2% ... LCG 19%, MCG 7%, SCG 3%. This breaks out not quite as what I posted above but to 75% large and 25% smid by Xray. The other way is listed by fund category and some of my smid cap funds do hold some large caps in them and some of the large cap funds hold some smids.
    I'm not trimming because of Jim Cramer's call ... I'm trimming because of my barometer having the S&P 500 Index scored as extremely overbought. And, yes stocks can remain overbought for some time but I've made some good money during the rebound rally and decided now was a good time to make hay (so to speak) before it withers away.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.
    You and I have a similar mindset, though I don't believe in rebalancing. While I've not been trimming, my allocations are similar to yours, focusing on quality div payers, and I also bought stuff (some just for trades) during the spring crash.
  • An ETF That Pays 10% With 41% Future Upside

    This *preferred* stock ETF dropped from 25 to 7 during the March 2020 crash.
    SWAN holding? Hardly. And a hard-pass .... but lovely clickbaity headline.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    Looking at MWFSX I can see that the daily distribution is going down. That is not a good thing and why the return will go down because it was a major part of its total return.
    As of Date Dividend Rate
    7/14/2020 0.000696355
    7/13/2020 0.001070898
    7/12/2020 0.00292486
    7/11/2020 0.00292486
    7/10/2020 0.00292486
    7/9/2020 0.002941311
    7/8/2020 0.003001093
    7/7/2020 0.003107266
    7/6/2020 0.003372154
    7/5/2020 0.003362877
    7/4/2020 0.003362877
    7/3/2020 0.003362877
    7/2/2020 0.003362877
    7/1/2020 0.003403448
    6/30/2020 0.004653331
    6/29/2020 0.004131378
    6/28/2020 0.005873692
    6/27/2020 0.005873692
    6/26/2020 0.005873692
    6/25/2020 0.00452522
    6/24/2020 0.004407367
    6/23/2020 0.004650857
    6/22/2020 0.004539056
    6/21/2020 0.005814275
    6/20/2020 0.005814275
    6/19/2020 0.005814275
    6/18/2020 0.005364586
    6/17/2020 0.004498074
  • Bkln - Low-Cost Floating Rate Debt Index ETF

    Low-Cost Floating Rate Debt Index ETF, 4.62% Yield
    Jul. 14, 2020 3:33 PM ETInvesco Senior Loan ETF
    Interest rates are at historical lows.
    Most fixed rate securities and funds offer low yields, and could suffer sizable losses if rates normalize.
    Floating rate funds, including BKLN, can help reduce interest rate risk, and can help investors profit from rising interest rates.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4358444-bkln-low-cost-floating-rate-debt-index-etf-4_62-yield
  • IVWAX Manager Change
    There is an earlier post concerning de Lardemelle's departure:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56527/charles-de-lardemelle-is-leaving-iva-fiduciary-trust
    Maybe something will be posted concerning it in the upcoming monthly commentary.
    I have small positions of both funds in non-taxable accounts.
  • U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns
    Investors Find New Safe Place to Hide: Chinese Bonds
    By Anna Hirtenstein
    July 13, 2020 5:30 am ET
    /Foreign investors are increasingly buying debt issued by the Chinese government for yields and safety
    U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns
    While the U.S. deals with the novel coronavirus, racial injustice and a presidential campaign, tensions with China continue to unfold. WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explains. Photo: Wang Zhao/AFP
    Investors seeking shelter from the turbulence in markets have found a new haven: Chinese sovereign bonds.
    Foreign capital flowed into locally denominated Chinese government bonds in the second quarter.../
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-find-new-safe-place-to-hide-chinese-bonds-11594632600
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-government-bond-fund-a-4812C0399?c3apidt=p40875349363&gclsrc=aw.ds&&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqtotbEK1iCEH1dqMAj3n0RFxIrK6snqMLFmK-rQcB3M4iDy5gPEZQaAu9BEALw_wcB
    https://www.manulifeim.com/institutional/global/en/viewpoints/fixed-income/china-fixed-income-a-safe-haven-asset-in-uncertain-times?cid=US-EN_MIM_IN_PS_AdWords_Ambition_General_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611_ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_source=PS&utm_medium=AdWords&utm_campaign=Ambition_General&utm_term=ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_content=US-EN_MIM_IN_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqatxsJ9RTnlR2Cvt6AlPW_CIq0BdRHWPoIzSqYJecy0Reufl8pM7caAoRZEALw_wcB
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    JohnN, I can take that prediction to the bank with truly 100% certainty. :)
    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong
  • Worst China Stocks Selloff Since February Caps Brutal Reversal
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-china-stocks-selloff-since-064124510.html
    Worst China Stocks Selloff Since February Caps Brutal Reversal
    (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Chinese shares is unraveling almost as quickly as it began, with losses accelerating Thursday after state media criticized one of the country’s most popular stocks
    Any ideas why jumping ship off fxi China market?
    Virus concerns, reduce productivity, massive recession, us- China tensions, Hong Kong conquered issues?
    US market may still be best market long term
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    From the Cramer video:
    --- but come July 28, he expects the market to start rolling over,” he said. “Given that the expanded unemployment insurance benefits from Washington expire at the end of the month, well, I wouldn’t be surprised” if his call turns out to be correct.

    >>> With the above in mind, why wouldn't one just sell equity today (July 16) and avoid the rush. Move the proceeds to cash, or better yet: to AAA bonds. Your choice.
    NOTE: On April 15 and 16, I had a small body temperature spike. I put this aside as a reaction to the nasty allergy season at the time. But, perhaps I had contracted a muted COVID
    condition. With what is now being reported as a possible ongoing symptom; maybe I now have "confusion" for clear thinking. Being a possibility, what I wrote about selling equity now may not be appropriate.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Jim Cramer says ...
    “The charts, as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams, suggest the S&P could climb another 4% or 5% over the next two weeks, but come July 28, he expects the market to start rolling over,” he said. “Given that the expanded unemployment insurance benefits from Washington expire at the end of the month, well, I wouldn’t be surprised” if his call turns out to be correct.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbc-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-uses-this-chart-to-predict-the-exact-date-the-stock-market-could-hit-the-skids-2020-07-15
    Old_Skeet has been in the trim equity mode for the past month, or so, due to my barometer's extremely overbought stock market reading which keys off of the widely followed S&P 500 Index. Currently, even though I've been trimming, I'm overweight on the equity side of my portfolio but reducing my equity holdings as I write.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    I think I found it after trying to figure out where an M* writer got off to.
    Mike Lee? Stan Lee? Used to cover ETF's at M*. Wrote a couple of pieces here.
    I don't follow ETF's. But I always enjoyed reading his stuff.

    I believe you are referring to Sam Lee who is a talented writer. Like you, I also enjoyed reading his
    articles. After he left Morningstar, he founded SVRN Asset Management.

    Thanks for the tip. I'll check it out.