https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-31-2019-131332122.html
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +255%
Dow (^DJI): +251%
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +346%
any thoughts about the next 5 10 yrs? 20% lower?

I've contributed to my grandkids 529 Education accounts for years, and there's probably more than will ever be used. Yet I still contribute to take advantage of NYS's $10K income tax deduction (6.57% marginal tax bracket). I know there's a 10% penalty on earnings for unqualified withdrawals. I figure I can leave the money in the accounts until after I've retired and in a lower tax bracket, but wonder if I should just stop funding and lose the deduction. Any comments?

http://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/associated_press/business/stocks-soared-this-year-half-of-millennials-missed-out/article_f7cab953-bcbb-51e4-9abb-b35f0c07b24e.html
Stocks soared this year. Half of millennials missed out
'At 27, Nick de León knows firsthand about the gulf between millennials and Wall Street.
De León graduated this year from UC Berkeley with bachelor’s degrees in political science and rhetoric with plans to start law school soon, and he has an internship with a Superior Court judge in his hometown of San Bernardino. He’s also intrigued with the stock market.'

I oversimplified. EMs today are much different than 30 years ago when I was first immersed in the vocabulary of investing. Some, like China, are highly industrialized economies, global leaders in technology, and growing military powers. Much different from 30 years ago. EM economies differ greatly. Those rich in natural resources might better survive a global downtrend if the price of energy and precious metals remained high. I’ve noticed increased civil strife / unrest in some EMs - notably Latin America. That, coupled with often endemic government corruption works against investors.
Re: 2000. That was an unusual crash. Tech had been hyped out of sight. NADAQ toppled and led the other indexes (Dow, S&P) on the way down, even though those weren’t nearly as overvalued. I wasn’t aware EM held up better - but makes sense. It was well over a decade, I believe, before NASAQ ever regained its 5,000 level

When the U.S. economy sneezes .....”. If the S&P takes a sudden 25% haircut, EM’s will follow, likely loosing even more.

That is a fair point, but much depends on the nature of the cold of flue so to speak on whether or not it's contagious and to what degree. During the 2000-2002 crash, emerging market stocks held up better than U.S. ones, and emerging market value ones especially so. That was a tech sector valuation/corruption--remember Worldcom/Enron? Fun times!--driven crash, not a macro global financial crisis like the 2008 one.

“anything negative occurring” strikes me as supreme understatement when running down that list of possibilities Lewis tossed out - some quite dire.
But I agree with Lewis’ posture here in general. I don’t have the depth of knowledge to explain why domestic markets are overvalued (and so hesitate to weigh in) - but I believe them to be. I’m certainly not alone in that belief. And that is precisely why some EMs appear so attractive compared to the U.S. The problem resides in that time-worn chiche: “When the U.S. economy sneezes .....”. If the S&P takes a sudden 25% haircut, EM’s will follow, likely loosing even more. And that will be the time to buy EM.

@davidrmoran That I have a harder time believing as inflation tends to be outside of corporate and government control at some points. There is a belief though that low rates will be here for a while, yes, but "permanent?" like you said, with quotes only.
I think though this discussion is rather abstract so let's put some concrete details beneath it as to what is really underlying the permanently elevated U.S. large stock valuation scenario:
1. Does one believe that Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Netflix will dominate the world until the end of time or will either governments or competitors, perhaps foreign competitors such as say Samsung, Ten Cent or Alibaba eventually begin to erode their marketshare? They are today's bellwethers. If they slip, you can almost be certain the U.S. market crashes. It seems even under the current ultra-rightwing administration there has been some pushback against their monopolistic tendencies.
2. Do low interest rates last forever? Last time they inched up, market cracked?
3. Do low corporate taxes last forever?
4. Does U.S. labor remain powerless and declining forever, having no bargaining power or pricing power on wages?
5. Do commodity prices stay low forever?
6. Corrolary to 4 and 5: Does inflation stay low forever?
7. Do merger-friendly, monopolistic, anti-competitive anti-labor right-wing policies remain in place forever?
8. Is there some accounting scandal at any of the aforementioned bellwethers about to break?
9. Is a war--a real war not the virtual one already being waged--about to occur?
10. Do the nationalistic trends we've seen throughout the globe ultimately mature into full-blown fascism in the U.S. or in major trading partners?
11. Will climate change and the policies necessary to keep it from becoming even a greater ecological catastrophe than it already is restrict business growth?
Any of the above could throw the "permanently elevated" stats askew.

Honestly honestly honestly, and yes, I know it’s the next level of complexity for most people above individual stocks even (let alone equity and bond mutual funds)—I think preferred stocks could be an answer for many people. Especially if needing monthly, or steady but not necessarily monthly, income.
Yes many of the companies that issued these are not common stock SWAN investments, but keep in mind that preferred stock dividends HAVE to be paid before common stock dividends. So for many REITs and BDCs and CEFs and the like, it doesn’t matter how much their “common equity” dividend is, or how much it changes up or down, just that it IS paying a dividend, which these companies tend to do. And the preferred stock holder has to be paid before the common shareholders are paid (sorry for the repetition there).
Some examples of monthly paying preferred stocks (you buy them just like individual stocks, from a broker....most now don’t charge a commission to buy or sell!):
ARR-A: pays high 7% every month (a crappy mortgage REIT but just need it to continue to be a going concern to continue to pay)
ECCB/OXLCO: low-to-mid 7% every month (the common, ECC and OXLC, own CLOs and other Wild West type investments, and definitely have fleas, but same as above)
LANDP/GOODM/GAINM: all from companies managed by Gladstone something or other, and all pay 6% or better, monthly (similar parenthetical to ARR-A....though LAND is a farmland REIT, GOOD is a mixed property REIT, and GAIN is a BDC)
VER-F: pays high 6% monthly (keeps getting partially called, so there is a chance your share counts would slowly decline as the company is able to have the cash available to partially redeem the issue; VER is a middling triple net REIT that was a poor company in a past life)
Certainly these aren’t “can’t lose” investments, and there’s always chances that the issuing company goes belly up, and you have to deal with call risks, where the company buys the preferred shares back at par (generally $25), all of these are trading over $25 par price, and the prices definitely can fluctuate up and down a couple percent or more, based upon interest rate policies and market fears, but if you are interested in decent monthly income that you can count on during most economic times, preferreds are one solid option, in this posters humble opinion.
I dont mean ti redirect the thread (and I realize this is MFO, not preferred stock observer lol), so PM me if any more interest. Definitely not an expert in all the nuances of these securities, but visit several sites dealing with them, and have traded them for a few years. :)

All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics have been uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through November 2019.
We went live the morning of 10 December, which is typically the longest it takes. The first Saturday of the month, when Lipper (Refinitiv) drops the monthly data, occurred on the 7th.
The year-end data and attendant ratings should post the weekend of 4 January. It will mark the 60th year of Refinitiv’s database. How many funds have been around at least 60 years? Just 65. That’s right. Best absolute performer? T Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX) at 12.6% … per year! Or, how to turn $1,000 into $1,200,000.
The more interesting news is what went live on 24 December, including: Data Across Ten Decades, Allocation Indices, and Expanded Rolling Averages.
You can read more here.

@hank Actually, since you mention T. Rowe Price, I would think PRIJX would be interesting for this specific situation: https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prijx/quote
If you go to the fund's Portfolio page: https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prijx/portfolio
you can see its portfolio average price-earning ratio 9.84; price-sales, 0.91; price-cash, 3.6 and a dividend yield of 4.38%. Now compare that to the S&P 500: https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfinx/portfolio
p-e, 19.4; p-s, 2.3; p-c, 9.9; div yield, 1.9%.
Meanwhile, growth metrics are very close for the S&P versus this fund, indicating little advantage for buying U.S. in that regard. So even if one just says well U.S. companies are better and deserve higher valuations, the question is how much better? Are they twice as good, three times as good? Because the relative valuations indicate that's what the market currently believes.

Anyone seeking to play this?

Love the terminology. I do enjoy combining gaming with investing on those rare occasions where the deck is clearly stacked in my favor. Get in. Get out. Pocket what you can over a few months
(or possibly years) before the market wakes up to the obvious mispricing. Works best with sectors or specialty funds. A fund that’s down 40% in a single year or 30% a year over 3 years is generally worth placing such a bet on. However, scanning TRP’s 150 or so funds, I can see only one fund that’s even negative for 2019. That’s their Dynamic Global Bond fund (RPIEX) - off only about 1%. And looking at a the 3-year chart, all I see there is PRNEX - off slightly - which I already own.
Price isn’t the whole universe. But they have enough funds that I can usually spot major trends there. Nothing worth laying money on the table for IMO. I realize the type of investor Lewis is addressing is the one who exists somewhere in between the extremes of short-term speculator and long-term buy and hold investor. I like to think that that kind of gradual shift in/out of different areas based on relative valuations is something a good manager of allocation funds normally does. None of us can match the depth and breath of market knowledge Price’s global network of analysts is imbued with. (And many other managers as well) So, other than liking RPGAX a lot because the managers have some discretion in underweighting / overweighting different market components, I won’t be throwing money at emerging markets.

@davidrmoran Interestingly, GMO's Grantham made one of the most plausible albeit depressing explanations for such a permanent shift, which involves increased monopolization and corporate influence in the political sector: csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/This-time-seems-very-very-different-Grantham.pdf
Yet even if one believes that influence and monopolization will never wane--people once thought the same about companies in the Gilded Age--it seems mistaken in my view to assume those dominant corporations will always be U.S. ones and that the remarkable valuation spread between large U.S. companies and large ones in countries like China or Mexico doesn't matter.

Despite high volatility at times, 1987 produced positive total returns in the S&P 500. The losers are the ones who sold and never got back in.

Agreed. And it's probably the same for 2000 and 2009. I know a few people who got seriously burned in 2009 and one or two still haven't recovered the confidence to return to the market. They will probably buy in again at the top....
This "reversion to the mean" concept is interesting. I think it has some major limitations today. And isn't "the mean" always fluid, always changing? What is "the mean" in today's world? As Old Skeet mentioned, P/E ratios are constantly expanding. I see no problem with that. I think value sectors will struggle again this coming decade because growth can be achieved very quickly and easily with the application of new technologies. You could wait 5 or 10 years for the reversion to the mean. Or it may never come at all.

Despite high volatility at times, 1987 produced positive total returns in the S&P 500. The losers are the ones who sold and never got back in.

1987 crash is a weird one but also kind of a blip as it was over so quickly. But many argue it was technological in nature due to computerized program trading: https://investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-black-monday-stock-market-crash-1987.asp

December 27th Program - Part 2

In 12/31/2010 GMO 7 year forecasted US large cap would make 0.4% + 2.5% inflation = 2.9%. The SPY made over 14% annually (link).
Bogle was wrong about the SPY too and Arnott was very wrong and why PAUIX lagged badly.
Many experts were wrong in the last 10 years.

"While a 55-cent stamp will work, I prefer to add tracking (via priority mail). So my annual cost is $7.35. "
I'm a cheapskate: first class mail (55¢) + certified mail ($3.50) + electronic return receipt ($1.60) = $5.65. Just proof of delivery, not tracking. Same for IRS. I figure that if it doesn't get there, it doesn't matter where it gets lost.
https://www.usps.com/ship/insurance-extra-services.htm
https://faq.usps.com/s/article/How-is-Return-Receipt-Used

@Catch22,
Thanks for the added info. Appears the courts have weighed in on Michigan’s pension tax recently - particularly on which providers (in our case IRA custodians) are required to withhold the tax. Thus far, all my distributions have come out of TRP, so I can’t comment on any other investment manager. As recently as mid-summer the mandatory withholding appeared to be in effect. Would another institution address Michigan’s law in the same manner? Perhaps not. Is this a reason to leave T Rowe Price? No.
I store the same annual letter to TRP on my computer. After updating date, I print and mail it to TRP along with a new W4-P (available on the internet) and a copy of a recent statement each January 1. Preparing all of this takes about 5 minutes (less time than I’ve spent composing this post). While a 55-cent stamp will work, I prefer to add tracking (via priority mail). So my annual cost is $7.35.
The above is overkill. It’s likely the opt-out would continue into the next year without an update. And one could save $6.80 by not using priority mail. To their credit, Price does an excellent job maintaining one’s records. Call with any tax related question and they’re likely to produce the needed documentation. So I’ll forgive what appears now to be their excessive caution on the pension tax withholding issue.
@Crash - These issues aren’t as complicated as they sound. Invest in the vehicle that will allow you maximum after tax return and also allow you the greatest flexibility in managing your assets.

Here's a page related to the Michigan Retirement/Pension page that Hank linked to. It focuses specifically on Withholding Taxes.
At least for Michigan employers, "Every Michigan employer who is required to withhold federal income tax under the Internal Revenue Code must be registered for and withhold Michigan income tax."
This is the concern I was voicing. Direct Roth rollovers from 403(b)s to Roth IRAs are not subject to mandatory federal withholding. But some employer administrators get this wrong and withhold at the state level anyway, viewing the state withholding as mandatory.
With respect to whether employer (public or private) pensions (including defined contribution plans) are subject to taxation based on age in Michigan vs. IRA taxation rules, all I can say is: good luck! That looks like a full employment act for Michigan CPAs.