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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Take Deposits Elsewhere": What is money really worth if banks don't want it?

    Banks in Germany Tell Customers to Take Deposits Elsewhere
    Below are a few edited excerpts from a current article in the Wall Street Journal:
    Interest rates have been negative in Europe for years. But it took the flood of savings unleashed in the pandemic for banks finally to charge depositors in earnest.
    Germany’s biggest lenders have told new customers since last year to pay a 0.5% annual rate to keep large sums of money with them. That is creating an unusual incentive, where banks that usually want deposits as an inexpensive form of financing, are essentially telling customers to go away.
    The pandemic has changed the equation. Savings rates skyrocketed with consumers at home. And huge relief programs from the ECB have flooded banks with excess deposits. Banks also have used the economic dislocation of the pandemic to make operational changes they have long resisted.
    According to price-comparison portal Verivox, 237 banks in Germany currently charge negative interest rates to private customers, up from 57 before the pandemic hit in March of last year. Charges range between 0.4% and 0.6% for deposits beginning anywhere from €25,000 to €100,000.
    The ECB’s deposit rate, which it charges banks, is minus 0.5%. The central bank has signaled it is unlikely to change that level anytime soon.
    Banks in Germany are particularly hit by negative rates because Germans are big savers. About 30% of all household deposits in the eurozone are in Germany, according to the ECB. Last year, deposits in the country rose 6% to a record €2.55 trillion as people became wary of spending under the pandemic or simply had nowhere to spend, with restaurants closed and travel restricted.
    In Denmark, where interest rates were cut to below zero two years before the eurozone, banks have gone from charging wealthier clients to smaller ones over the past year. The Danish central bank estimates about a quarter of the country’s depositors are currently being affected.
    Nordea Bank Abp recently lowered the deposit threshold for a 0.75% charge to 250,000 danish krone, equivalent to $41,000, from 750,000 danish krone as the pandemic will likely prolong the era of negative rates.
    The flip side for customers there, is that in some cases, while they pay to deposit money, they don’t have to pay anything to borrow. Nordea in January started offering 20-year mortgages at 0%.
  • Article: “What Happens if You Lose Your Bitcoin Password?”
    “ Bitcoin users have misplaced about 20% of all existing tokens, and unlike fiat currency which can potentially be recovered, it's highly unlikely that these tokens will be returned to circulation, analysis by the Wall Street Journal suggests.”
    You can only recover your Bitcoins if you somehow can get hold of your private keys. Without them, your precious Bitcoins are waiting at their position in the blockchain, waiting for you to move them to a different wallet address ...
    ‘It’s extremely improbable, and effectively impossible [to recover lost coins],’ ... ‘This is what the security of Bitcoin is actually based on. If you've lost your private key, the system is so secure that you may not be able to recover it.’
    Steps to Restoring a wallet
    Step 1 - Locate your wallet words. To restore your wallet and recover your bitcoin, you must have your wallet words.
    Step 2 - Locate your wallet backup folder. A wallet backup is an encrypted copy of your Bitcoin wallet.
    Step 3 - Start the restore process.”

    LINK
  • Gold down / Settles below the key $1,800 mark in 2nd day of losses
    Linking some analysis from today. (Published before the price turned and headed south again.)
    LINK
    Hard to figure out. It’s a rocky investment most of the time and hasn’t done as well as equities over the years. Still, some find it appealing as a small holding in a diversified portfolio. Others have an almost spiritual fascination with it and have loaded up mightily.
    - Rising interest rates tend to spook metals markets.
    - Perceptions the Fed will keep rates very low tend to support metals markets.
    - The bitcoin craze has, as others noted, impacted the metals markets for the worse.
    It should be noted that metals & miners did very well during 2019-20. Some mining funds sported one year gains of around 50%. To some extent, dues are being paid today for that immense run-up.
    LINK to miners ETF (shows current price)
  • China Rolling out National Digital Currency
    NYT article:
    technology/china-national-digital-currency
    After joining the lottery through the social media app WeChat, Ms. Huang, 28, a business strategist in Shenzhen, received a digital envelope with 200 electronic Chinese yuan, or eCNY, worth around $30. To spend it, she went to a convenience store near her office and picked out some nuts and yogurt. Then she pulled up a QR code for the digital currency from inside her bank app, which the store scanned for payment.
    “The journey of how you pay, it’s very similar” to that of other Chinese payments apps, Ms. Huang said of the eCNY experience, though she added that it wasn’t quite as smooth.
    China has charged ahead with a bold effort to remake the way that government-backed money works, rolling out its own digital currency with different qualities than cash or digital deposits.
    Digital currencies created by central banks give governments more of a financial grip. These currencies can enable direct handouts of money that expire if not used by a particular date and can make it easier for governments to track financial transactions to stamp out tax evasion and crack down on dissidents.
    The design of eCNY borrows only a few minor technical elements from Bitcoin and does not use the so-called blockchain technology, a ledger-like system
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    As of 2018 according to Cerulli Associates, 2/3 of all 401(k) contributions and 1/3 of assets were in Target Date Funds. One can speculate that those invested in shorter maturity vehicles (2025 or earlier) with higher bond percentages (by design) in an environment of escalating rates may find their quarterly statement does not reflect the level of return and/or principal preservation they had expected.
    Interested in reading other perspectives.
  • Pimco Funds changing the names of four municipal bond funds and other change
    update to institutional shares (GCMFX, GNMFX):
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/810893/000119312521062769/d124234d497.htm
    497 1 d124234d497.htm 497
    PIMCO Funds
    Supplement dated March 1, 2021 to the Municipal Value Funds Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), and to the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”), each dated July 31, 2020, each as supplemented from time to time
    Disclosure Related to the PIMCO California Municipal Opportunistic Value Fund and PIMCO National Municipal Opportunistic Value Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”)
    As previously disclosed, PIMCO may from time to time determine to close either or both Funds to initial purchases by new investors or to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders and will provide notice regarding such closures.
    Effective March 3, 2021 (the “Effective Date”), the Funds will close to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders. Such closure will not affect the rights of existing shareholders with respect to shares of the Funds held as of the Effective Date. The purchase of additional shares of the respective Fund through dividend reinvestments will continue to be permitted.
    Notice will be provided regarding any future reopening of a Fund to subsequent purchases by existing shareholders or to initial purchases by new investors and subsequent purchases by existing shareholders.
    Investors Should Retain This Supplement for Future Reference
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    For me, RPHYX outperformed BBBMX TRBUX and DLSNX in 1Q 2020, losing (.74)% . ZEOIX blew up and I was lucky to break even with that fund. I'm sticking with RPHYX for now, but definitely watching it closely !
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    @WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.
    Thanks for the tip. I did read your link. And I did look into RPHYX on other sources.
    I like the duration. The ER is too high for me to get into a B-rated bond fund. I don't think anything could get me into a B-rated fund.
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?
    Well as they say hindsight is 20-20 right?
    Should note that the fund did have a nice pedigree and backing, David Bonderman, chair and founder of TPG, private equity firm w/~$85B in assets backed (per WSJ, TPG/Bonderman had no day to day participation in the mgmt or valuation of investments in the fund") InfinityQ and per the WSJ article, according to people familiar with the matter had approx $100MM invested in the fund.
    To the Monday morning QBs...Please show me any other fund that was around since Oct 2014 and had the same combo of low drawdown, volatility and return and zig when the SPY zagged downward...(potential fraud and make believe numbers not withstanding)
    @Wabac, noting that the return of the fund was after paying the high fee, still not a bad return...dunno, I get it that expenses eat into returns, but if I'm going to the Doc, Dentist, auto mechanic, I look for the most experience, value and quality etc...not low price necessarily. If he was not cooking the numbers, I would argue that this fund was worth the high cost.
    Just be careful, you might be next...we might be talking about the wisdom of those who put their monies into a SPY index fund that includes Tesla and the Cathie Wood funds as something that in hindsight looked really foolish...let's be intellectually honest with each other as why not, we don't know each other anyways...but I'd argue that the ARK funds could easily go down another 50% from here...we know they are way overvalued but some pour money into them until maybe last week. That to me, seems like a way crazier investment that putting monies into a fund with an over 5 year track record and backed by a very experienced private equity founder.
    So, anyways, let's hope it all works out and no one loses too much monies for this financial lesson....as always, respect, good health and good luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    @WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.
  • Buffett says 'never bet against America' in letter noting company's U.S. assets
    There is a lot more information in Buffett's interview with respect to bonds in general.
    “Bonds are not the place to be these days,” Buffett said. “Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.”
    Buffett noted that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield had fallen drastically to 0.93% at the end of 2020 from 15.8% in September 1981. Meanwhile, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt in Germany and Japan, he added.
    If US investment opportunties are so great, why is he buying back $9 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock? The answer is that he have had hard time buying them within his metrics and this is consistent with his investment pattern for a number of years. Recent purchase in drug and telecommunication stocks is a reflection of his forward looking view in post-pandemic scenario.
    In addition, Buffet also made many mistakes just like other investors or fund managers. His value investment approach exposes him to the value-trap stocks. At least he owed up to his mistakes and moved on.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-precisioncastparts/warren-buffetts-10-billion-mistake-precision-castparts-idUSKCN2AR0MZ
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?

    @stillers
    I have been DCA'ing into TMSRX. FWIW, it has easily been outperforming those three AA funds since its inception with only ~28% stocks.
    So was IQDAX vs other alternative multi-strategies.
    Not sure that's true but I'll take your word on it.
    That said, LOTS of funds start out great.
    Infinity funds have NEVER showed up as a possible BUY in ANY scopings of funds I've EVER done since ~1980. I actually never heard of them until this thread. So I read the PM roster for IQDAX and (to be kind) was NOT impressed.
    TRowe Price on the other hand is a whole 'nother story, as are TMSRX PMs Hubrich and de los Reyes.
  • Buffett says 'never bet against America' in letter noting company's U.S. assets
    Don't bet against him/market
    Keep buying brk.b & dji sp500 Nasdaq
    Also contribute 25-30% overseas eu
    You maybe laughing your ways to bank 10 20 yrs from today.
  • Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC to acquire Diamond Hill’s focused High Yield & Corp Cr
    Columbus Business First (Columbus, OH Newspaper) Ink
    https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2021/02/04/diamond-hill-sells.html
    Brandywine will pay $9 million upfront and could pay up to $13 million over the next year for the funds. The new ownership will give the team access to more macroeconomic analysis plus other resources from across Franklin Templeton.
    Meanwhile, Diamond Hill will be able to narrow its focus. It has grown to $26.3 billion in assets under management as of this month. Over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, it has found stronger long-term results in its large cap and fixed income funds, but domestic equity has had a tougher time because of volatility among small-cap and value stocks.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack

    Weird. Here in DC I got a re-run from last summer with Jim Rosenblatt of Gotham Securities. ;/
    Feb 26th Episode:

    Free Issues (Grant's Interest Rate Observer):
    https://grantspub.com/subscribe/index.cfm#freeBlock
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    “Whoa. A lot to unpack there” - Not really. It’s just one of a half-dozen different market takes Barron’s typically presents from a variety of different sources in a small section of the magazine each week. More, I think, to give a flavor of the kinds of questions advisors are batting around (to borrow your spring training metaphor) than to provide any definitive or accurate point of view.
    “But I hear the GOP wants to position itself ... ” - OK
    Oh, I get that.
    Among other things I was thinking about putting Reagan and Volker in the same basket after packing the 50's and 60's into the same bear market as the 70's. And that whole four decade bull was pretty much treading water for 13-14 years after the dot com bust. At some point the market became Friedman's, and now seems to be a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fed.
    Took my brain a while to boil it down to a paragraph.
    Rest assured that my opinions are neither definitive nor accurate. ;-)
    Spring training game today. First Moderna shot on Monday morning.