Interesting Read:
Yield Curve Steepening, and Small Caps

Right now, longer term rates are rising, while the Fed is keeping the short term rates low. That means the yield curve is steepening at a rapid rate. That should mean a continuation of small cap out performance over at least the next 15 months. And if the Fed dithers in allowing short term rates to keep pace with the rise in long term rates, then the message is that small caps should continue to outperform for a longer time, due to all of that excess liquidity.

yield_curve_steepening

JohnGaltill said: In the past, many market pundits predicted 8% - 10% gains for a specific year but market returns rarely fall with this range. If all ships will be lifted, where will customers moor their yachts?

8-10% annual return seems overly optimistic given this low yield environment. Other analysts talk more about the challenges going forward and investment opportunities.

Elon Musk. Smart no doubt. Kooky, no doubt. Visionary no doubt.
Poor choice of words on my part, my phrasing of no substance, thanks for calling me out on it @LewisBraham, should have stated I don't like his persona, the way he carries himself, his communication style.
Uses tax payers monies to enrich himself, isn't tesla in existence because they sell regulatory credits to other car mfg. Wait until gm, ford, benz and vw ramp up and bring their EVs to market. Maybe his rocket business will really take off in the future...
Drugs. Ya, so you think no problem? How much criminal activity is caused by drugs directly or indirectly? Theft, robberies, shootings, etc. You say so what? So now the meth heads are using battery powered angle grinders to crawl under pick up trucks to quickly saw off the cat converters for the materials.
You're joking Lewis right? To say nothing of lives and families ruined.
I really don't care nor would say it's any of my business of what anyone does in their own home as long as they are consenting adults but I think laws have to be in place to prevent people from harming themselves.
Article in Crains states estimates that ave IL tax payer, annual cost to pay for shooting victims is ~$770. Ambulance ride, investigation, ER treatment, prosecution, incarceration etc, etc, etc. Yes, just under $10B/yr. A lot of this is due to shootings over drug deals etc. Why is this crap tolerated by a civilized society?
And for sure, in my humble opinion it is poor form to go on a podcast and light up a joint, especially from a CEO...doesn't inspire confidence.
Ok, went off the rails here, rambled.
To each his own I guess.
Not a fan,
Baseball Fan

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000139834421004672/fp0062798_497.htm
(SLCSX)
497 1 fp0062798_497.htm
SELECTIVE OPPORTUNITY FUND
Supplement to the Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information
dated
April 29, 2020
Supplement dated February 26, 2021
The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the Selective Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”).
As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective June 21, 2021 (the “Closing Date”). Shareholders may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer and are held in a brokerage account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer for deposit into your brokerage account.
The Fund will continue to pursue its investment objective through the Closing Date. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
* * * * * *
This supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. A Statement of Additional Information dated April 29, 2020 has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at (434) 515-1517 or visiting www.selectivewealthmanagement.com.

@ Wabac, +1, would add, Less of: bat flipping punks, play the game the right way, show respect to your opponents
@ Hank, +1, would add: Less of rioters, looters, rioters, car jackers, clowns walking around with assault weapons like Rambo in public, easy out of jail under new "catch and release" uber lib attitude of prosecutors, lock them up!
Best to all,
Baseball Fan

I might move into ultra-short bond funds if they offer any improvement over Vanguard's money-market settlement fund.

You may want to look into VUSFX.

Thanks for the tip. I'm at Vanguard, so that'll probably turn up when I get through rearranging the rest of the deck chairs and start looking at bonds again.
I run all my options through MultiSearch on the MFO premium site and see what's left. Then I look at the strategy, or underlying index thesis.

1.47% right now. STILL very low. I'd not buy Treasuries at that rate. After all these years, I'm going to start my cash pile so I can buy some favorites, when those darlings fall far enough. I'm VERY glad I took a scheduled annual slug from the IRA BEFORE this current (brief?) "hit." Will it become an actual downturn? Who can say.

His summary of 2021? Expecting an 8 percent gain in S/P for the year. Stimulus and Fed accommodating... means a great year for equities, don't hold Bonds unless they are very short term etc. etc. Stimulus is pumping a ton of money into the economy. That money will be spent. That will lift all ships.

There is potential career risk if someone's prediction is wrong and it differs from "the crowd".
In the past, many market pundits predicted 8% - 10% gains for a specific year but market returns rarely fall with this range. If all ships will be lifted, where will customers moor their yachts?

@Mark I got rid of all bonds except a very small position in FXNAX. My FNBGX was up quite a bit in 2020 (not sure why and it still trailed S&P index), thankfully I sold before 2021. Why? It’s down 10% YTD. I’m having a very hard time justifying any bond exposure right now. Actually, when I look back at the last 10-15 years, I held too many bonds (in case of?) and at the expense of many years of equity superiority. The crash(s) where bonds outperformed and helped me were few and far between. But I’m still learning and don’t know what I don’t know.

CBHAX + .01

Also, in the second quarter 2021, Vanguard plans to launch an etf version of VUSBX .

Wonder why? Between the two funds they've got $3 billion in assets and 10 stars. With a management fee of 0.5%, that's $15 million a year.

JASVX +.01 was the only GREEN on my screen today.

BIVRX was up for the day, 3.17%.

Interesting day. I kept seeing 10 year yield ... 10 year yield ... spooking equity holders and bitcoin negative impacting the market, stock market down headlines everywhere all day. CNBC, Yahoo, Marketwatch etc. etc.
Logged into my Fidelity account and fully expected to see a 2-3 percent drop... I was up .26 percent for the day. Quite surprised about that. Small Caps holding up. Biggest funds negative were ARTYX and FSEAX - both down about 1 percent for the day.
Joe Duran with Goldman Sachs was on with Maria Bartiromo this morning. It was a fantastic interview! I cant find it anywhere online otherwise I would link it. Perhaps it will be out in a day or two or it will be on a twitter feed. His summary of 2021? Expecting an 8 percent gain in S/P for the year. Stimulus and Fed accommodating... means a great year for equities, don't hold Bonds unless they are very short term etc. etc. Stimulus is pumping a ton of money into the economy. That money will be spent. That will lift all ships.

Thank you MikeW! If David takes the time to write a launch alert, pay attention.
Just went live with several other new features in MultiSearch, including: Jump Scroll, Hover Symbol, and Plus Searches, described here.

Momentum Indicates Stock Price Strength:
investopedia.com/articles/technical
The relation between value and momentum strategies:

Simple value and momentum strategies often end up with opposite market positions. One strategy succeeds when the other fails. There are two plausible reasons for this. First, value investors regularly bet against market trends that appear to ‘have gone too far’ by standard valuation metrics. Second, value stocks carry particularly high market risk or ‘bad beta’ and thus fare well when market risk premia are high and the market turns for the better. This typically coincides with ‘momentum crashes’ in oversold markets. As a consequence, value and momentum signals may be complementary. In particular, value strategies are not very profitable in normal times or bull markets but have produced extraordinary profits when being set up in the mature state of a bear market. Similarly, momentum signals can be adjusted by extreme valuation metrics alongside signs of trend exhaustion.

https://sr-sv.com/the-relation-between-value-and-momentum-strategies/

Back to the OP...Bitcoin...Gates vs Musk (on Bitcoin):
/it-s-gates-versus-musk-as-world-s-richest-spar-over-bitcoin

Podcast interview with Jeremy Grantham (Invest Like the Best):
jeremy-grantham-a-historic-market-bubble

You’ve probably noticed that value investing has been the opposite of dead for a while now. In fact, small value stocks have more than doubled since the low last year. Yes, I’m cherry-picking. Sue me. More interesting is the fact that they’re breaking out relative to growth stocks. We see this in large stocks too, but the effect is more pronounced here.

Article:
when-value-turns-into-momentum
Managed small value funds vs the small value index?
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/small-value