I’ve no prediction for the S&P. He could have it right. However, his unwarranted arrogance gets in the way of communication here. Agree with @davidrmoran. This guy struggled to earn a C in high school comp class. But let’s see what we can glean from his four investing “gems.”
- Rule Number One : The market is not going to do what you want it to do. You cannot invest in your opinion, your bias, or in the headlines that you agree with.
I like that one. I find it the most challenging obstacle to my effective buying / selling. It’s called “confirmation bias”. Here’s a good definition: “Confirmation bias is the natural human tendency to seek or emphasize information that confirms an existing conclusion or hypothesis.” Fight not to let your own confirmation bias lead you in the wrong direction.
- Rule Number Two : You will get a lot better feel for the market by looking at 100 one-year charts than you will from reading 100 headlines.
That’s BS. One year tells you little. Anything can happen in one year. I like charts - but 5 & 10 year patterns are more useful. As previously reported, Yahoo Finance lets you dig up performance figures for funds all the way back to inception. Wonderful tool. Use it. And than to further indict all “headlines” ..... ? Depends which headlines idiot! Twitter? Probably “No.” While ignorance may be bliss, Franklin had it right when he wrote that emptying one’s “purse” into his head is a road to better dividends. Reading widely (WSJ, Barron’s, Reuters, FT, etc.) helps provide the grounding for making informed decisions.
- Rule Number Three : The market is forward-looking.
Agree.
- Rule Number Four : Stocks and the market follow earnings and earnings expectations.
Not my forte. But judging by the way certain tech stocks have behaved in the past (AAPL, TSLA) I wonder whether that’s true.

Fact sheets (compare and contrast before and after):
http://web.archive.org/web/20190411093154/http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/FactSheet.pdf (4Q2018)
http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/FactSheet.pdf (1Q2020)
A few things stand out to me. One concerns investments in asset-backed securities (ABS).
The current (August 2019) prospectus (see Lewis' link) says that "The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by primarily investing in asset-backed fixed income securities ... and non-agency residential and commercial mortgages". Yet in both late 2018 and early 2020 the fund had less than ½% in ABS. For that matter, no commercial mortgages at all.
But there was a change in how the fact sheet described the fund's investments.
4Q2018: overlooked segments of RMBS, ABS, and securitized markets
1Q2020: primarily non-agency RBMS and other residential housing debt (ABS is omitted)
Risk/reward changes also stood out.
4Q2018: Sharpe ratio 2.22, std dev 3.81%
1Q2020: Sharpe ratio: 0.03, std dev 17.86%
current (M*): Sharpe ratio: , std dev 23.38%
Finally, here's the main supplement, dated March 23, to the current prospectus. (There are two others; one is for change of address, the other is for load waivers.)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064220001282/alphacentric497s.htm
To the section on liquidity risk, it added two sentences, saying that the coronavirus affected liquidity in fixed income markets "including many of the securities the Fund holds." It went on to say that "it is more likely" (than before, I guess) that the fund will conduct fire sales to meet redemptions.
To the market risk section, it added two paragraphs of boilerplate about war, terrorism, public health, depressions, etc. This addition, unlike the first, applied to all AlphaCentric funds.

I've included a link for all of the IOFIX SEC filings.
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=C000153407&action=getcompany&scd=filings
http://www.garpc.com/iofix/

This short article discusses changes Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTreck Research, thinks have taken place during the 21st century compared to the prior 50 years. He thinks these changes have increased what the stock market accepts to be reasonable valuations. Its interesting he includes a "DC Put" in his description of the crisis response tools the markets will expect to be utilized going forward.

A new model for assessing stocks may include higher valuations, as the old paradigm is no longer valid, according to a research note from DataTrek Research on Tuesday.
More aggressive Fed interventions will keep the stock market bottoms higher, and low interest rates and more innovation can boost the tops.

https://marketwatch.com/story/were-in-a-new-paradigm-for-stocks-this-analyst-argues-get-ready-for-permanently-higher-valuations-2020-05-19?mod=home-page

Up little bit in may..will trend continue next month,

I have no idea what trend will do but I know how to join the trend and jump off it and why over 50% of my portfolio is in HY munis for several weeks. HY munis did fantastic in May and several did 3.5-5%

Municipal market closes out May steady
By Lynne Funk, Christine Albano
May 29, 2020, 4:38 p.m. EDT
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/municipal-market-closes-out-may-steady
The municipal market concluded the final trading session of May on steady footing, with secondary yields remaining flat Friday amid a pickup in issuance.
Meanwhile, New York City will begin to reopen starting June 8, the mayor and governor said Friday.
Generic municipal yields have held at steady levels, though some sources said that is a signal that a breakout in movements in either direction could occur
High-yield issues were slightly higher on the day.
Tightening spreads and low yields ended the week on
“As high-yield fund outflows subsided, benchmark liquid high-yield names such as Buckeye Tobacco, COFINA, and Illinois GOs all tightened 20 to 25 basis points on the strength,” Horowitz said.
In addition, he said last week's NuStar Logistics new issue traded up eight basis points. The Guam Water deal this week, he said, was the only “real yield” and summoned demand over 22 times the amount available, bumped 25 basis points, and then rallied another 33 basis points on the break, according to Horowitz.
Looking ahead, the high-yield spreads should continue to tighten as the generic market will continue to see a supply-demand imbalance.
“Next week's yield calendar is again very light, so we are expecting spreads to continue to grind tighter as high-yield funds look to re-deploy cash and the secondary market selling pressure has all but abated,” Horowitz said.
“Looking at the high-grade, tax-exempt calendar, we would expect subscription levels to be heavy next week as there does not appear to be enough supply to satiate the market's demand,” he added.
docket but no date set. Wells Fargo is lead manager.
in the previous week. Ex-ETFs, muni funds saw inflows of $870.959 million after inflows of $1.234 billion in the prior week.
The four-week moving average was positive at $776.244 million, after being in the green at $189.374 million in the previous week.
Up little bit in may..will trend continue next month,

I remember reading a GMO article by Grantham saying that the S&P 500 was overvalued when it reached 1500 back in 2003 or 2004 (I can't remember year). That caused me to be cautious. The S&P 500 went on to double from those levels. I understand that people can't predict what the fed and other central bankers will do (i.e. low interest rates and QE forever) and fed decisions influence PE,.. but yes GMO has been WRONG for a while now. I am buying EM right now though. We shall see. I guess another thing that is impossible to predict is inflation which can also have effect on PE,.. Bottom line I guess is that making forecasts with respect to markets (bonds, stocks,..) doesn't work and yet I keep reading financial articles about them and people keep publishing them. As Buffett says, keep emergency cash and invest in the S&P 500 for the long run. I guess like the late Bogle Buffett doesn't mention investing in international markets.

WARAX has a lower expense ratio of 1.53%. Unfortunately this fund run by Inker is still a stinker !

Thanks @Old_Skeet. Based on sectors analysis on the 50 day just about every sector is overbought. Im most interested right now on if the rally in financials and cyclicals continues. I bought JPM and IYG about 2 weeks ago. JPM is up about 12%

May 30th Episode:

Also,
A link to his 2013 Paper (Helicopter Money):
Helicopter_Money_Final1.pdf

My local library system subscribes to Morningstar Investment Research Center.
There is a link to ‘Fund Categories’ under the Markets section on the homepage.
Fund category returns for the 1 mo., 3 mo., YTD, 1 yr., 3 yr., and 5 yr. periods are displayed.

There has been much prior discussion about how CTFAX goes about making changes to it's asset allocation moving between stocks and bonds based upon the movement of the S&P 500 Index.
It's new asset allocation was made on May 28th where it changed direction from it's last sell on April 28th. This is due to it's 31 Day Trading Rule. It's new stock alloction is 50% equity 50% bonds.
For those interested, you can read more about this through the below link. Once opened find Asset Allocation Update and click on it. A pdf will load that contains this information.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1

@VintageFreak,
Not sure it this FT article and citywire articles address the specific reasons, but it does generalize some of the reasons for the acquisition.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-14421490-00S82T58N8PUMMHAV4VC75QF57
https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/fpa-international-equity-team-set-to-join-polar-capital/a1323652
This is from FPA:
International Value fund(read page 10 of pdf viewer):
https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/funds/fpa-international-value/literature/quarterly-commentaries/fpa-ivf-commentary-2020-q1_wcovid.pdf?sfvrsn=14
Paramount Fund (read page 4 of pdf viewer):
https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/funds/fpa-paramount-fund/literature/quarterly-commentaries/fpa-paramount-commentary-2020-03_final.pdf?sfvrsn=6

Hi guys, Things are crazy ... yes?
Currently, based upon the metrics of Old_Skeet's market barometer it scores the S&P 500 Index as extremely overbought with a reading of 120. With this, I'm not putting any new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. I'm thinking that momentum will still carry the market higher as there are currently 95% of the stocks in the 500 Index above their 50 day moving average while there are only about 45% above the 200. With this, I'm thinking there is more upside to come.
I did open a position in BCSAX this week which is a commodity strategy fund.
Enjoy your summer.
Old_Skeet

Old Skeet, BCASX is a loaded fund. Did you buy it loaded?

Good morning @MikeM : Your comment sent me off to check on Vanguards 2015 TRF VTXVX. Surprised to see -.79% YTD !!!
Stay Safe, Derf

GMO has been saying EM will out preform for years.. Eventually by the roll of the dice they will be right I guess. I think they base a lot of their opinion on valuations. This outpreformance may eventually be is true but the only thing Brazil is out preforming on now is new Covid cases and deaths, for example. I think Covid will decimate EM.
GMO website has many very long and very thoughtfully argued position papers, including a number by Grantham that are valuable about climate change, but I have never mad any money following their advice.
Inker has just cut equities to 25% in GBMFX the global allocation fund he has run for decades.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/analysis
Mere mortals can't get into this fund, although it is not clear why you would want to with it's middling record over the last few years. TIAA offered it for years in their retirement plans, but recently removed it probably because of nonperformance. My wife's account would have been better off in VWINX which has a ten year return of 105% vs GBMFX 38%
Every dog may have it's day....

You can get into Inker's GMO fund. WARCX Wells Fargo Absolute Return is a feeder fund into GBMFX. However the expense ratio is 2.28% and a 1% differed load. Its track record is not stellar.

Hi @Derf, as of this morning self managed is down -5.5% YTD, -7% from high. The Schwab robo did better with -5.0 YTD, -5.3% from high. My biggest mistake was having my bond portion in non-diversified, low liquidity funds like IOFAX, MAINX and HY munis. I took a loss selling off IOFAX and MAINX and chalked it up to a lesson learned.
For a total portfolio at about 50% equity, my #s, -5% YTD aren't very good. If you look at a simple 1 fund portfolio like TRP retirement 2015 fund, PARHX, that fund is only down -3.3% YTD. I often ask myself why not just buy that fund and play around the edges if you want to have fun. Not to hurt anyone's feelings, I'm convinced most of us here do not add value to a portfolio. We may talk a good game with our buys and sells and timing but #s don't lie. Hard to beat a target date fund.

Analysis at the end, after the performance.

Performance......One month...YTD as of 5/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX…3.1....-2.35
PUCZX…3.8…-3.7
JMUTX....4.0....-5.1
TSIIX.....3.1….-0.1
PTIAX….1.9….-0.2
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....2.3….-3.4
EIXIX…..3.1….-0.4
VCFAX...2.8....-10.8
IOFIX.....6.3....-26.3
HY Munis
PHMIX…..3.4.....-3.1
NHMAX....4.6.....-7.3
OPTAX.....3.2.....0.15.
ORNAX….3.9…-5.25
BSNIX....2.8....3.4
GWMEX….5.0…..-3.1 (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
NVHAX…1.5…-6.2 (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
SAMFX.......0.7.....8.0
BCOIX......1.3…...4.4
SCCIX.....1.3....11.2
ANBEX……1.6....12..9
BND….......0.7…...5.7
Bank Loans/Floating rate
EIFAX.......4.3.....-8.2
Uncontrain/Nontrad
IISIX..........3.0....-6.3
PMZIX......1.5….-0.1
JSIAX……1.5….-0.3
HY +EM
HYG.........2.95.....-4.5
PHIYX.......4.0.....-4.1
FNMIX……7.5……-6.4
Corporate
PIGIX….…1.7.….0.1
VCIT……..2.7…..3.5
Preferred
PFINX…...2.7……-6.0
OTHER
FXAIX.…..3.8..…-5.0 (SP500)
PCI………7.0... -23.7 (CEF)
Observations:
Last month was another rebound month. Several bond funds made as much money as stocks.
Multi- did great. TSIIX(multi) + EIXIX(Multi securitized continues to show the best risk/reward. JMUTX shows good momo. IOFIX shows the best momo but I can’t forget its meltdown
HY Munis had a great rebound in May. BSNIX had the best risk/reward. GWMEX had the best momo.
Inter term – did well. If you doubt about finding better funds then look at ANBEX.
Bank loans – Good rebound but still big losses YTD
Uncontrain/Nontrad-PMZIX with great risk/reward but if you want to make money look at IISIX,JSIAX.
HY+EM – Good rebound in May.
Corp – In a tough market VCIT beat PIGIX.
SP500-Just -5% for YTD. The price crossed the 200 moving average, that means to start buying if you were out.
PCI-CEF got crushed more than stocks YTD and are still behind. If markets stabilize they will make more money than stocks.
===========================
My own portfolio
As expected from a trader I go where I see momentum but still look at risk/reward. The market looks better than before and why I start taking more risks.
Early in the month, I had 3 holdings but mostly in ANBEX(core plus)+BSNIX(HY Munis) but I switched to GWMEX(HY Munis)+TSIIX(Multi) + EIXIX. I have over 50% in GWMEX, a smaller position in TSIIX, and a much smaller in EIXIX.
Stats: My portfolio made over 8% YTD.
For 3 years I made over 9% average annually with SD lower than 2 (remember, my goals were 6+% and SD lower than 3). My portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top. So, when they tell you that bonds (I also trade stocks,CEFs) are boring with no future I keep chuckling and the unbelievers will continue to dismiss the numbers.
FUND...3 YR...SD
SPY.....10.15...16.9
VBINX...8......10.7
VWIAX...6.4...6.9
Mine.....9+....under 2
It looks better after the rebound but at the end of March(see below), it was so much worse. See PV(link)
FUND...3 YR...SD
SPY.....5......14.9
VBINX...4.45....9.3
VWIAX...4.17...6
Mine.....not far from the above
The above is not a recommendation, you must do your own due diligence. My holdings can change at any time :-)

Hi guys, Things are crazy ... yes?
Currently, based upon the metrics of Old_Skeet's market barometer it scores the S&P 500 Index as extremely overbought with a reading of 120. With this, I'm not putting any new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. I'm thinking that momentum will still carry the market higher as there are currently 95% of the stocks in the 500 Index above their 50 day moving average while there are only about 45% above the 200. With this, I'm thinking there is more upside to come.
I did open a position in BCSAX this week which is a commodity strategy fund.
Enjoy your summer.
Old_Skeet