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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Possible tax changes going forth.
    The linked article talks only about tax increases. There are also tax decreases and related items. Here are a couple more proposed changes:
    "One benefit for wealthy taxpayers: Biden intends to eliminate the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions imposed by the TCJA."
    Baird: What to Expect From a Biden Presidency
    Not exactly a tax decrease, but on the table is changing the SS COLA calculation from using CPI-W to using CPI-E (elderly).
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/23/president-biden-could-make-big-social-security-changes-this-year.html
    An increase not mentioned is the requirement that employees who deferred their payroll taxes last year repay them this year. "President Trump's executive action in August deferred, rather than reduced, tax obligations for employees earning up to $4,000 every two weeks." The silver lining is that the IRS has extended the repayment period from the original four months to twelve months.
    https://www.cfodive.com/news/irs-postpones-date-when-companies-must-complete-repaying-payroll-taxes-defe/593763/
  • T. Rowe Price changes fees on Spectrum Funds
    Alternative subject header: T. Rowe Price decreases fee on Spectrum Funds.
    Currently, the expense ratio includes a significant "acquired fund fees and expenses" line item. For example, for PSILX, the current prospectus says this fee is 0.90%. The new prospectus (first link above) says that this fee will be reduced to less than 0.01%.
    Instead of T. Rowe Price being paid through the acquired funds' fees, it is paid directly by the Spectrum funds. The net effect is no change in total expense ratios, but somewhat better transparency.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/132712/#Comment_132712
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    I also own MIOPX which is about 35% emerging Asia. MIOPX is probably my favorite fund of the lot because it is international in its focus. If you look at its performance for just about any time frame on Morningstar or MFO Premium it's in the top 10%. Finally, I own Hennessy Japan which is a nice steady eddy fund that gives you good exposure for a global rebound in the economy.
    What are the differences between MIOPX and MFAPX?
    Thanks.
    Mona
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    this tread seems to be wandering off the title, but here is a good reason to question Grantham's advice. I love his pieces and read them regularly, but he has been wrong for a long time
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/02/15/the-case-for-emerging-markets?bt_ee=nQdQqooUUehguFxr8cHYJ3EYbfDtkNeaSkM5kRAHFeaBTpmHhq/SLnj/nDXwg7WE&bt_ts=1613473644073
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Great discussion here. I bought MATFX 2 weeks ago. I really like the manager of this fund, Michael J. Oh, who has been lead manager of the fund since 2006. He writes some great commentary pieces that lay out his thinking on stock selection and where he sees opportunities. https://www.matthewsasia.com/funds/asia-growth/asia-innovators-fund/ . Scroll to the bottom for links to articles and podcast. Wonderful track record. With this I now hold FSEAX, CHIQ in emerging Asia. I also own MIOPX which is about 35% emerging Asia. MIOPX is probably my favorite fund of the lot because it is international in its focus. If you look at its performance for just about any time frame on Morningstar or MFO Premium it's in the top 10%. Finally, I own Hennessy Japan which is a nice steady eddy fund that gives you good exposure for a global rebound in the economy.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    How does TSDLX differ from PRWBX ? TSDLX has 27% foreign vs PRWBX 16% . NTF at Schwab, but tf at Fidelity.
    H Carew - I’ll dare to guess here based on recollection.
    I believe PRWBX is focused a bit shorter on duration (1-3 years). TSDLX appears to be targeting the 3 year range - give or take. Hard to know for sure because TSDLX has only been open about 6 weeks.
    By prospectus TSDLX is allowed to invest something like 30% in junk bonds - though they’re not planning to go that high. PRWBX is for the most part investment grade.
    So, under “normal” conditions (HA) you’d expect TSDLX to do a little better.
  • The saying is something like; excess liquidity.....credit,margin,cash with find a place to play.....
    Well, I'll discover what becomes of these indicators some time Tuesday morning.
    Note: I've checked these links periodically over several years and have not seen "all green" (as I write) for Global Markets.
    FINVIZ futures (11pm, EST)
    Global Markets Overview (11pm EST)
    Informational purposes only :)
    Good Evening,
    Catch
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    +1 Hank How does TSDLX differ from PRWBX ? TSDLX has 27% foreign vs PRWBX 16% . NTF at Schwab, but tf at Fidelity.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Taking reports of side effects now the vaccines have been given to over 40 million people is fraught with difficulty, as there is no longer a placebo group to compare to. Anyone who has a serious medical problem after the vaccine will likely be reported to the FDA but that does not mean that the vaccine caused the stoke or heart attacks or whatever. The frequency of adverse reaction the FDA reports in post marketing studies are reflective of whatever reports they receive.
    30,000 people were in both of the Pfizer and Moderna studies which is a huge number. It is large enough to give us confidence that the most serious side effects would show up, and could be compared to their frequency in the placebo group.
    I would suggest people who are interested read the original FDA data both Moderna and Pfizer submitted. You can quickly go to the section on side effects and see the actual data that compares the vaccine recipients to their placebo counterparts. The tables are clear and easy to follow.
    Here is Moderna
    https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download
    The text for "deaths" follows.
    "Serious Adverse Events Deaths As of December 3, 2020, 13 deaths were reported (6 vaccine, 7 placebo). Two deaths in the vaccine group were in participants >75 years of age with pre-existing cardiac disease; one participant died of cardiopulmonary arrest 21 days after dose 1, and one participant died of myocardial infarction 45 days after dose 2. Another two vaccine recipients were found deceased at home, and the cause of these deaths is uncertain: a 70-year-old participant with cardiac disease was found deceased 57 days after dose 2, and a 56-year-old participant with hypertension, chronic back pain being treated with opioid medication died 37 days after dose 1 (The official cause of death was listed as head trauma). One case was a 72-year-old vaccine recipient with Crohn’s disease and short bowel syndrome who was hospitalized for thrombocytopenia and acute kidney failure due to obstructive nephrolithiasis 40 days after dose 2 and developed complications resulting in multiorgan failure and death. One vaccine recipient died of suicide 21 days after dose 1. The placebo recipients died from myocardial infarction (n=3), intra-abdominal perforation (n=1), systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the setting of known malignancy (n=1), COVID-19 (n=1), and unknown cause (n=1). These deaths represent events and rates that occur in the general population of individuals in these age groups.
    Non-fatal Serious Adverse Events Among participants who received at least one dose of vaccine or placebo (N=30,351), the proportion of participants who reported at least one SAE from dose 1 to the primary analysis cutoff date (November 25, 2020) was 1% in the mRNA-1273 group and 1% in the placebo group. The most common SAEs occurring at higher rates in the vaccine group than the placebo group were myocardial infarction (0.03% in vaccine group, 5 cases vs. 3 cases in placebo group), cholecystitis (0.02% in vaccine group, 3 cases vs. 0 cases in placebo group), and nephrolithiasis (0.02% in vaccine group, 3 cases vs. 0 cases in placebo group). The small numbers of cases of these events do not suggest a causal relationship. The most common SAEs occurring at higher rates in the placebo arm than the vaccine arm, aside from COVID-19 (0.1% in placebo group), were pneumonia (0.05% in placebo group) and pulmonary embolism (0.03% in placebo group). Occurrence of other SAEs, including cardiovascular SAEs, were otherwise balanced between treatment groups. "
    I think it is fair to say these vaccines are very safe, and at least so far, very very effective
  • Port Viz
    Just interested in feedback from anyone using Portfolio Visualizer on a regular basis to backtest portfolios. I've been playing with it non-stop (it seems) and I've managed to craft a 401k portfolio that performs the best with the least downside. I've substituted 2 Fidelity funds with Vanguards because of the age of the funds and I wanted to go back to 2008. So - VFINX for FXAIX and VGTSX (corrected) for FSPSX and that allows me to backtest to an earlier date.
    Past results do not = future BUT ... this tool is really handy (it seems) to see what your worst year would have been. I'm curious if anyone puts a lot of weight on this tool when determining their portfolio mix or any other tips you might have.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Here is what I read (some of) every week, since the Journal has been making significant lay outreach efforts:
    https://www.nejm.org/covid-vaccine/faq#Clinicians
    from 6w ago:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2035343?query=featured_coronavirus
    and otherwise more info than most of us need:
    https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?query=main_nav_lg
  • C19 vacc side effects
    @johnN: A search of the "Up-to-date" link which you have provided shows none of the information which you have listed.
    However, judging from the appearance, that information seems likely to have been derived from a reasonable source. Can you please provide a link to that source?
    Try this link instead:
    https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-mrna-vaccines-united-states-and-canada-authorized-for-use-drug-information?topicRef=8357&source=related_link#F55189491
    As one can tell from the intro, "The following adverse reactions and incidences are derived from the FDA issued emergency use authorizations", this page is not the source of the data. The data are from the clinical trials, i.e. the CDC links that I already gave.
    Without reading the CDC data, or the text quoted by sma3, one would not know that "younger patients" does not mean the same thing with Moderna data as with Pfizer data.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Hi sir Old_Joe.
    I read from pamphlets/uptodate and CDC/Pfizer/revised by our institution that expect >10s-20s% regarding side effects after 2nd dose: myalgia, headache fevers, flu symptoms, tiredness. Also have General info about vaccines and where to report major adverse events. I believe the events from vaccine: ~ 0.6% of heart issues and 0.3% strokes.
    Regards.
    I can send you pictures of pamphlets if desire
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Up TO DATE is probably the best single source for updated medical information available to health care professionals. It is not cheap ($350 a year) but it is peer reviewed and edited by top academic physicians, many of them from Hopkins, Harvard, Yale, Stamford and other "top ten" medical schools
    Here is their summary recommendation and summary of Side effects
    " For individuals who are eligible for vaccination according to local allocation priorities, we recommend COVID-19 vaccination (Grade 1B). Selection of vaccine depends on local availability. The different vaccines have not been studied head-to-head, and thus, comparative efficacy is uncertain."
    A Grade 1 B recommendation
    A Grade 1 recommendation is a strong recommendation. It means that we believe that if you follow the recommendation, you will be doing more good than harm for most, if not all of your patients.
    Grade B means that the best estimates of the critical benefits and risks come from randomized, controlled trials with important limitations (eg, inconsistent results, methodologic flaws, imprecise results, extrapolation from a different population or setting) or very strong evidence of some other form. Further research (if performed) is likely to have an impact on our confidence in the estimates of benefit and risk, and may change the estimates.
    Moderna Safety and side effects – Local and systemic adverse effects were dose dependent and relatively common after the second dose; most were of mild or moderate severity (ie, did not prevent daily activities or require pain relievers) [61]. Among participants younger than 65 years, fever occurred in 17 percent, and severe fatigue, headache, myalgias, and arthralgias occurred in 10, 5, 10, and 6 percent, respectively.
    Pfizer ( essentially the same) Safety and side effects – Local and systemic adverse effects were dose dependent and relatively common after the second dose; most were of mild or moderate severity (ie, did not prevent daily activities). Among participants younger than 55 years, fever occurred in 16 percent and severe fatigue, headache, and chills, occurred in 4, 3, and 2 percent, respectively [49]. Rates among older participants were slightly lower. "
    This has been what I have heard form friends and family who have been vaccinated. Young people have more side effects, but at the same time they are more able to deal with them.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    I listened to that Grantham interview on Bloomberg 2-3 times one day recently. He lays out a convincing case. But there are equally good arguments on both sides.
    As far as Grantham’s argument goes he’s focused on three areas: (1) He thinks artificial risk asset impetus has been supplied from over a decade of easing by the Fed and other central banks. Since he doesn’t think this can continue much longer (deficits / unrealistically low rates) he sees an eventual popping of the “bubble”. (2) He sees a near hysterical chasing of return today irregardless of risk - a euphoria he equates with the final stages of bull markets. (3) He takes issue with high valuations in some sectors - technology particularity.
    It should be noted that Grantham is more sanguine re value stocks, thinking there are pockets of opportunity in that depressed sector. He sounds downright bullish on emerging markets - if one has a long enough time horizon.
    Each investor needs to consider his own time frame, risk tolerance, overall financial situation before undertaking any changes. I’ve grown a bit more cautious over the past couple months. The last two years were good to most investors. So, irrespective of Grantham, I see no compelling reason for a retiree to be overly aggressive at this point. I’m sharing how my allocation has changed in recent months as I try to protect 50+ years of accumulated retirement savings. Your situation is doubtless different and so should be your approach.
    * End of 2020: Alternatives 25%, Equity/Balanced Funds 25%, Diversified Bond 25%, Cash & cash alternatives 15%, Real Assets & Commodity 10%.
    * Today: Alternatives 33%, Equity/Balanced 20%, Diversified Bond 20%, Cash & cash alternatives 15%, Real Assets & Commodity 7%, Benchmark Fund (PRSIX) 5%.
    Explanatory Notes:
    - TMSRX accounts for about 50% of the alternative portion. PRPFX comprises most of the rest.
    - I’ve gone much shorter on the diversified bond holdings. DODLX is the riskiest one at 50%. The rest consists of short term bond funds like newly opened TSDLX.
    - I’ve moved most of the cash into a medium duration TIPS index fund,
    - I’ve switched from TRRIX to PRSIX as my benchmark and have added a small allocation to that fund. One difference between the two above funds ... PRSIX commits 0-10% to a Blackstone hedge fund. TRRIX does not.
    - There remains a small spec position in a mining fund.