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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

SEMPX
Good fund. I don't own it now, but will again at some point.
One thing to note about the holdings: they're usually mostly floating rate; current as of the 6/30 fact sheet = 65%.

AndyJ October 2019 in Fund Discussions
The Closing Bell: Stocks Climb On Trump’s Plan To Meet With China Trade Negotiator
it was up almost 500 before settling back to 300, a little unusual for a friday

davidrmoran October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
@Old_Joe: MFO ranks 330,165 on the worldwide web, with 856,29 views per months. I've been doing my part, how about you ?
Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat: 220 Views
Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now: 608 Views
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close: 870 Views

Ted October 2019 in Fund Discussions
The Closing Bell: Stocks Climb On Trump’s Plan To Meet With China Trade Negotiator
Nice day in the markets as of 3 PM. Oil’s also up a couple % along with big gains for stocks. Gold holding its own - off about $10. Politicians of all stripes like to “play” the markets where they can. Often they try to get the inevitable recession “out of the way” early in the first term of their President (either party). The perfectly normal tendency to want to game the markets is the reason Congress in its wisdom created an independent Fed and sought to insulate it as much as possible from political interference.
Back to investing ... Note that today’s current DJA at near 27,000 isn’t that far above the 26,617 reached in early 2018. A lot of this year’s gain is simply retracing the steep losses which occurred later in 2018.
Records Highs Set in 2018
“The Dow hit three 1,000-point milestones in 2018.
It hit two of them in the first few weeks in January. It closed above 25,000 on January 4, and it breached 26,000 on January 17. The index set 15 closing records in 2018.
The records set in the fall were the first ones since the Dow reached 26,616.71 on January 26, 2018. After hitting that peak, the Dow went into free fall, dropping 4% the next week.
On February 8, it entered a market correction when it fell 1,032.89 points to 23,860.46.
On August 27, 2018, the Dow ended a six-month correction when it reached 26,049.64, which was 10% above its closing low of 25,533.20, reached on March 23.”
From The Balance.com
https://www.bing.com/search?q=2018+U.+S.+market+highest+average+reached+dow+s&p&go=Search&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=2018+u.+s.+market+highe&sc=0-23&sk=&cvid=5BE2D3B980CC4BFBBD8CC0F49A32C4DD

hank October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
$50 underperformance over these last 13mos is striking; what could account for it? (My pondering was 'how', and there clearly is an answer somewhere, perhaps in LB's speculations.)
FSAMX also beats VEXMX, by $11, for that span, all this for $10k, while VEXAX comes out a hair ahead, and is the winner. Again.
4* though, and even worse per Lipper. Huh.

davidrmoran October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
One of those products is its money market funds, which yield I’m fairly certain less than Vanguard’s so every time you hold cash you’re losing money. All of that said, they’re good products.
Fidelity's MMFs yield so much less that if you try to get a few basis points closer to Vanguard, you wind up taking on greater risk and you still fall short. Fidelity's prime fund FZDXX has an SEC yield of 1.81% (as of Oct 10th), vs. Vanguard's government MMFs yielding 1.89% for VMFXX and 1.90 for VUSXX (as of Oct. 10th).
The key there is that government funds are not gated. Prime funds may freeze your cash at the worst possible moment.
Aside from the gating risk, FZDXX has a higher min ($100K in a taxable account). To get its yield as high as it is, Fidelity is waiving some expenses. That presents two additional risks: termination of the waiver by the Board, and claw backs that impede the ER from dropping.
For completeness, SPAXX (Fidelity government fund) currently yields 1.57%, and VMRXX (Vanguard prime fund) currently yields 2.03%.
For day-to-day checking account-like services, the yield you get with Fidelity is great. I use it that way. But for sizeable liquid cash holdings, Fidelity's not the place to be. Vanguard for MMFs, internet banks for FDIC-insured superior yields.

msf October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
>> for the big mainstream stuff Vanguard's hard to beat
for sure, but how can anything be better for such than the 'new' Fido zero-ER offerings?
Compare Fidelity's two extended market offerings. Their zero-ER one FZIPX and their extended market "classic" FSAMX.
Here's the M* comparison chart from FZIPX's inception date.
Fidelity's own comparison chart is a bit less useful, as you can't choose arbitrary timeframes. If you look at this chart, I suggest clicking on the 1 year comparison - that's the longest period within FZIPX's lifetime that the chart will illustrate.

msf October 2019 in Fund Discussions
SEMPX
I am holding SEMMX. I like the combination of its 4.23% YTD return with a Standard Deviation of 0.75.
Mona

Mona October 2019 in Fund Discussions
We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
Even 2.5 to 3% on the 10 year in 2020 would be quite low by historic standards. I just don't see what might cause rates to move substantially further than that to the upside in the near future.

davfor October 2019 in Fund Discussions
We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
Hi @Junkster
I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
Couple of items with this.
Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
1. machine trading
2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
Add to the list if you choose.
Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
10 yr German bond PRICE
Pillow time here.
Catch
Can’t offer any special insights. If the crowd is right and this time it is different and rates are headed towards zero that will buoy bonds that offer a higher yield such as junk, non agencies, emerging markets, and more. I remarked the other day that from a contrarian point of view at some point over the next year rates will be higher on the 10 year in the 2,50 to 3% range. I hope that isn’t the case but it would not surprise me at all. Stocks would also be much higher and confound all those thinking a recession is at our doorsteps. You are thinking more based on fundamentals while I am thinking more based on sentiment and the counterintuitive nature of the markets.

Junkster October 2019 in Fund Discussions
ORNAX - load at Fidelity but waived at Merrill Edge
Load is waived at Fido now. No transaction fee either. May have a dabble with some spare cash, but have bonds run their course? (Just thinking out loud.)
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/00141W505

Simon October 2019 in Fund Discussions
We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
Hi @Junkster
I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
Couple of items with this.
Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
1. machine trading
2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
Add to the list if you choose.
Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
10 yr German bond PRICE
Pillow time here.
Catch

catch22 October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
The thing is, there are so many advisers in the world and there are even algorithms that now do this kind of work for a pittance. There is no reason anyone has to give their money to someone who thinks we're still living in the 1950s or in this case the 19th century. America wasn't "great" for more than half the population back then. The irony is fellow financial advisers go to these sorts of conferences for business advice to help attract clients etc. How stupid do you have to be to publicly act this way while promoting yourself as an adviser guru who is good at attracting new business? It's 2019.

LewisBraham October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
Ken Fisher Banned From Future Tiburon Conferences After Boorish Remarks
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ken-fisher-banned-from-tiburon-conferences-52098.html
The "fireside chat" was a Tiburon event.

msf October 2019 in Fund Discussions
The Closing Bell: Stocks Climb On Trump’s Plan To Meet With China Trade Negotiator
FYI: U.S. stocks rallied Thursday after President Trump said he would meet with a key Chinese official for talks Friday, the latest example of trade hopes boosting global markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150points, or 0.57%, to 26496, after earlier climbing more than 250 points. The S&P 500 added 0.64%. The broad equity gauge entered the session down nearly 2% so far in October and roughly 3.5% below July’s record, though it was still up 16% for the year. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.60%.
The gains came after Mr. Trump said on Twitter that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the head of the Chinese negotiating team, at the White House Friday, contradicting earlier media reports that Chinese leaders would be leaving Washington Thursday, a day earlier than expected.
Thursday’s moves were the latest example of trade-induced volatility in markets. Global indexes and stock futures swung between gains and losses overnight on conflicting reports. Fears that the U.S. and China won’t reach a ceasefire on tariffs have led to projections that a global economic slowdown will ripple to consumers, denting spending and crimping corporate profits.
Negotiations continued Thursday after the White House signed off on special licenses for some U.S. companies to do business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co., a possible sign of goodwill. At the same time, the U.S. adding 28 Chinese entities to an export blacklist earlier in the week also prompted caution among investors.
Trade hopes also boosted commodities crucial to transportation and manufacturing by easing worries that softening demand will result in supply gluts. Both copper and oil rallied nearly 2%, trimming some of their recent losses.
Earlier in the week, figures showed that prices businesses receive fell unexpectedly in September from the previous month.
Treasury yields rose following the data Thursday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to 1.651%, according to Tradeweb, from 1.585% a day earlier. Yields have fallen in recent months as investors have sought safety in bonds.
Among individual stocks, shares of Delta Air Lines slid 2% after the company’s quarterly results added to concerns about rising carrier costs. Third-quarter reporting season for large companies begins in earnest next week, with S&P 500 firms expected to post a drop in profits from a year earlier.
Bed Bath & Beyond soared 21% after the struggling retailer tapped Target’s Mark Tritton as its next chief executive.
And PG&E tumbled nearly 30% after the judge presiding over its bankruptcy handed shareholders a loss, opening the door to a competition over the best path out of bankruptcy that pits the troubled utility against bondholders led by Elliott Management Corp.
Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.6%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4%.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/your-evening-briefing
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-drift-lower-as-beijing-washington-tariff-talks-take-focus-2019-10-10/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-slip-as-concerns-about-trade-talks-mount-11570697193
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/asian-stocks-set-to-rise-on-trade-talk-optimism-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-moves-higher-as-trump-tweets-plan-for-trade-talks/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html
Reuters:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rises-on-hopes-of-u-s-china-trade-deal-idUSKBN1WP1QB
U.K:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/recharged-hopes-of-brexit-deal-trade-truce-power-uk-shares-idUKKBN1WP1QX
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-rise-on-brexit-trade-deal-hopes-lvmh-shines-idUSKBN1WP0ST
Asia:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/asia-stocks-october-10-us-china-trade-talks-oil-currencies.html
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-as-investors-await-us-china-trade-talks.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/brexit-uk-and-irish-leaders-say-there-is-a-pathway-to-a-possible-deal.html
Oil
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/oil-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/gold-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Ted October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
There are three recent changes at Vanguard that I'm aware of. For the reasons I describe below, I tend to view them as "non-events". Are these what you had in mind, or are there other changes that lead you to feel that Vanguard is making it more difficult to do business with them outside of Vanguard funds/ETFs?
Vanguard stopped selling explicitly leveraged (2x, 3x, etc.) and inverse ETFs last January. Since those funds almost have to be traded frequently, Vanguard never was a good platform for someone investing in these particular ETFs.
Vanguard recently terminated its cash management features. Very few of their customers were using these features anyway. One had to be a Voyager Select ($500K+ in Vanguard funds) to even have access to these features. Then Vanguard was still charging customers $30/year unless they had at least $1M invested in Vanguard funds. Little wonder almost no one used these services.
Vanguard is about to transfer the servicing of the Vanguard Variable Annuity to Transamerica. Your comment has to do with Vanguard making it difficult to buy non-Vanguard funds. Since the VA is made up of Vanguard funds, it's not the kind of investment that you were talking about.
Those are all the recent changes I know of where Vanguard has made it difficult to invest in certain products or have access to certain services. There certainly can be others, potentially more significant, that you had in mind.

msf October 2019 in Fund Discussions
How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
You get moderated off the M* forum and end up here. You are great at posting after the fact of unsubstantiated trades. You have been offered over $1000 to provide just a year or two of monthly trading statements but refuse. You have been asked to post in real time the day of your trades not days and weeks afterwards but you refuse. IOFIX? You are been vociferous the past year on your dislike of this fund. What exactly are your present holdings and % of total portfolio as of this morning. That is not a difficult question. In my 50 plus years in the game from what I have seen over at M* you are the worst trader I have ever witnessed. And I have dealt with thousands of traders.
Can’t you just post your analysis which many enjoy and leave out all the fiction of your after the fact trading exploits. I may have to dust off my Crooks Con Men, and Charlatans thread.
Edit. Here is a thread today over ar M*. Read carefully the comments from Bazinga. A most accurate analysis of the Great Pretender
https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Community-Feedback/Is-the-FD-on-Bonds-thread-locked/m-p/26018#M1312

Junkster October 2019 in Fund Discussions
How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
What about fees and other misc costs, would surely cut out your long-term returns for sure... I can't stand seeing >1.5% fees rotten away every yr

johnN October 2019 in Fund Discussions
How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
SPLV is doing better than USMV in the last year and both better than SPY.
See PV(link)
The above show that Sharpe+Sortino are much better for USMV than VFINX(SP500) and even PRWCX(allocation) is better because performance is close but SD and others are better.

FD1000 October 2019 in Fund Discussions
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
Schwab index funds are cheaper than VG.
Expense ratios are just one part of the equation.
On the cost side there are tax costs. When you buy an OEF share class of a Vanguard fund you benefit from the fund's ability to dump any cap gains via the fund's ETF share class.
Vanguard 2018 YE distributions (no cap gains for index funds, except institutional funds that have no ETF class shares)
Schwab 2018 YE distributions (see p. 3)
On the revenue side, there's security lending. "Consistent with Vanguard’s client-owned structure, Vanguard returns all net lending revenues—after subtracting program costs, agent fees (on non-U.S. securities), and any broker rebates—to the funds."
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGSL.pdf
As it turns out, Schwab has a similar policy. But unlike Vanguard, with Schwab would you be confident of that without checking?
https://www.schwabfunds.com/public/file/P-7549969
The point is that there is much more going on than is reflected in ERs. Relatively speaking a basis point one way or the other is just noise. How much tracking accuracy will the fund trade off for better pricing? DFA does this so extensively that it says its funds are actively managed, albeit indexed. Full replication vs. sampling; quality of sampling methodology. And so on.

msf October 2019 in Fund Discussions