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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???

    @johnN You noted: "Equities maybe still too high imho"
    From a technical view, and only one view type; as technical folks have their own favorite views of the numbers and what they mean, I offer two charts. These charts are set for 5 years of pricing data. One theory is that Relative Strength below 30 is oversold (buy, buy, buy) and over 70 is overbought (handle with caution). This RSI is shown near the top of the chart, and should appear as TEAL in color when over 70. BAGIX (a plain intermediate bond fund), in theory; should be sold, and at the least, not purchased at this point. BUT, what the heck do I/we know. The RSI is merely a gauge of buys and sells to obtain a price point over time. Obviously, the bond types in this fund have had folks buying for awhile, yes?
    As to ITOT (U.S. market etf), which is a twin of Vanguard's VTI for returns; one does not find at this time a RSI that suggests this market area is overbought (not too hot too handle at this time).
    I need to leave this as is for now..... other time commitments; but wanted to offer a view regarding your above statement.
    BAGIX , 5 year chart
    ITOT , 5 year chart
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    Hi guys, I'm not liking what I seeing in checking the naked short volumes for the S&P 500 Index for the past rolling week. About 62% of the total trading volume has been by the naked shorts. With this, I'd say good caution is now warranted. And, I did cash out of my equity spiff position yesterday with a 3.4% profit for which I held for a little better than 30 days. Seems some investors might now be betting against the anticipated FOMC rate cut.
    For now, I continue to ride with about a 5% overweight in equities with the overweight being invested mostly in good dividend paying equity income funds which were not part of the spiff. It will be interesting to see how bond yields move over the next couple of days, perhaps even a few weeks.
    Seems, of late, bond yields have been rising as some investors have sold bonds and moved towards risk on type assets. It also seems there has been good money flow into the Index over the past week. Let's see if this sticks? Interesting? Yes.
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???
    Hi sir catch22... Good post... If you buy bonds what would you buy??... Equities maybe still too high imho.. If retirement already you need st least ~50s% in your portfolio otherwise loose too much w another crash
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???
    WELL.......
    Negative rates are supposed to stimulate the economy, incentivising investment by making it less attractive to hold cash and spurring demand by making credit cheaper. But evidence of the theory working in practice is far from conclusive. Certainly Europe’s bankers are squealing, as they feel margins squeezed by low rates on lending and a reluctance to pass on negative rates to depositors.

    Why did Europe promote negative interest rates?

    Our Federal Reserve system and Treasury may operate within boundaries that are not available to the ECB (European Central Bank) functions, as the euro area's fiscal and financial rules are not similar. I will not expand this difference here. One may readily discover facts of their choice.
    Suffice to note that the U.S. moved to Quantitative Easing, while the Euro Zone remained with a policy of austerity after the market melt in 2008. Many here will recall the rough times in Europe for several years following the melt.

    As to investment grade bonds today
    . IMHO, one can not (yet) invest in bond funds that will allow for the steady eddy yield and pricing from the days of yesteryear; to take one's investment into the future without a care and the feeling of protection against the nasty's. Keeping in mind, that as long as there are buyers, don't be concerned with the yield; as your pricing/capital appreciation will out perform the yield expected.
    My own question(s) to these type of bonds, is how long will purchases remain in place; IF the yields continue to trend to the negative zone??? Purchasers being the big investment houses, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and individuals, etc.
    With some of this in mind, this house has not been inclined to purchase investment grade bond fund(s) for any sake of yield; as this is third place in thought. First and second place belong to a cushion against the current political strains globally and what this may also bring for global equity(s). Yes, a protective place generating some yield and more so; since the mini melt in December of 2018, decent price appreciation. Early 2018 found a U.S. equity blip in February and a few rough patches until the mini melt in December. Early equity market tremors? I won't begin to suggest this knowledge; but money continues to run to IG bonds.
    IF U.S. yields continue downward for whatever reason(s), what are the impacts?
    --- CD's.....the folks who do not and/or will not invest in the markets, and maintain monies in CD's
    --- financial institutions.....will they be able to maintain a proper spread (deposits/loans) to obtain a profit?
    --- consumer loans.....mortgage, auto, etc.; would consumers take on too much cheap debt?
    --- corporate bond issuance..... more or too much debt, and for what purpose?
    --- private pension funding
    --- insurance company(s) products, including annuities
    and more.
    I remain with the thought, as from 2009; This Time Is Different, at least for my investing period.
    Your thoughts please.
    Thank you for allowing my self therapy. :)
    Catch
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Waver As Investors Hope For Rate Cuts
    FYI: Major U.S. stock indexes swung between small gains and losses Monday as investors looked ahead to meetings later this month where central bankers are expected to cut interest rates.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19%.
    Monday’s move puts a pause on major indexes’ advance after two consecutive weeks of gains for stocks. Analysts said there was little new information to drive shares Monday.
    Last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point next week. Lower interest rates tend to spur investors to buy riskier assets, such as stocks, over bonds, gold and other havens. This time is no different, with expectations of looser monetary policy contributing to most of the stock market’s gains this year, analysts have said.
    Still, there is disagreement over how much the Fed should cut rates, leaving the stock market potentially vulnerable if the Fed fails to enact a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.
    Treasury yields pared some of their gains after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that inflation expectations a year and three years from now fell in August.
    Rising yields helped lift the S&P 500’s financials sector, which was one of the biggest gainers Monday, rising 1.4%.
    Beyond Monday’s broad gains, some individual stocks outpaced the broader market. Shares of AT&T jumped 2.7% after the activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the company and released a letter to the board laying out a series of potential changes that it said could boost the stock.
    Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3%. Data released Monday showed German exports unexpectedly rose in July, a bright spot following a string of negative economic data from Europe’s biggest economy, though analysts said concerns remained that U.S.-China trade tensions could affect the German economy.
    In commodities, Brent crude oil rose about 1.8% to $62.64 a barrel after Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman appointed Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an experienced oil official and son of the country’s king, as head of the powerful energy ministry. Prince Abdulaziz is expected to continue OPEC’s efforts to bolster energy prices by cutting production.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-point-higher-as-investors-look-to-central-banks-for-stimulus-2019-09-09/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-tick-higher-on-china-stimulus-11568016549
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-08/asian-stocks-set-for-muted-start-to-the-week-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-extends-win-streak-5-big-stocks-rally/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/dow-futures-move-higher-investors-wake-to-new-chinese-exports-data.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/stimulus-hopes-buoy-wall-street-financials-lead-gains-idUSKCN1VU17Y
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/uk-bluechips-give-up-gains-as-sterling-strengthens-idUKKCN1VU0KU
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-close-down-as-london-lags-banks-shine-idUSKCN1VU0L6
    Asia:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/asia-markets-september-9-us-china-trade-china-economy-currencies.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/us-treasury-yields-higher-ahead-of-new-data.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/forex-markets-us-economic-data-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/gold-markets-monetary-policy-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Any chance that D&C will offer a money market fund?
    Don’t hold your breath waiting. Have seen no indication.
    On that question, not sure what their gig is. Seemingly, being the savvy investors they are, they’d rather folks park cash in DODIX. That bothers me a bit. However, DODIX is quite conservatively run - probably out only about 3 years on the maturity curve at present. I don’t doubt that it will beat any money market fund hands-down over 5 and 10 year periods. But shorter term, has the potential for a couple lousy (negative) years.
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    I was thinking you were going to say T Rowe Price. They are great!
    No argument from me on that!
    I’m probably rare in that I’ve never owned a Vanguard fund. Our workplace offered (initially) load-based Templeton and than later TRP as 403B options. Since the 90s TRP has managed about 50% of my funds.
    Using custodian-to-custodian transfers some money was moved to others. D&C has about 25% - another highly respected house. The remainder is divided between Invesco ($$ formerly with Oppenheimer) and Permanent Portfolio. Re Oppenheimer / Invesco - I’ll grade them C overall based mostly on higher fees. But they offer some niche funds I use that Price doesn’t.
    Price has always run a first-rate shop. Their problem today, IMHO, is too many funds. Obviously they’re fighting for market share. Geez - 25 years ago I might have named every fund in their stable and told you how it invested. Today that’s hopeless.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I also like to buy new hot funds and I don't care about the ER that much. I bought EIXIX earlier this year but sold after a few months when performance was going nowhere. I have talked with the manager and one of their directors and EIXIX invests mostly in RMBS of 2008 and prior + ST floaters interest MBS that do well when rates are going up. The managers are trying to balance out rates going down+up. I noticed the fund is doing well when rates are going up (which is unique for most bond funds) and not well when they are going down and why EIXIX has done very little in the last several months.
    My biggest category YTD used to be HY Munis but I sold a big portion a few weeks ago when momo got weaker and rates started to rebound after a huge rapid decline. I prefer Munis over higher-rated bond funds because they do better in rising rates. Fidelity doesn't let you buy muni funds in IRA but Schwab does. I used to have ORNAX in taxable + IRA but now only in taxable.
    YTD chart(link) of Multi(EIXIX,JMSIX) Higher-rated (USIBX) HY Muni(ORNAX)
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    Nice try Ted. But where's your link to the raw data?
    Why would I open a thread highlighting a link to a Barron's article that I can't read without a subscription? (A mouse over of the thread is all that's needed to reveal this.) You're right, I don't read current mutual fund threads that have no value to me.
    Besides, you posted a thread months ago that claimed that D&C was already the top family with 100% of its funds having 4 stars or 5 stars. (That was a statistical fluke, because most of the time DODFX is sitting at 3 stars, as it is now.)
    The thread you're referencing is just a followup and does not appear to offer anything new.
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    @msf: I already linked this as part of the " Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close" just a few links below yours! Looks to me like you don't read current mutual funds articles on the board.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52690/is-any-mutual-fund-company-better-than-vanguard-1-comes-close#latest
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    Twice a year, Morningstar publishes the Fund Family 150 report, an update on the 150 largest U.S. fund families. Of the 777 fund families in the U.S., these fund families account for 99% of the $19.3 trillion invested in U.S. funds and ETFs.
    150 pages of reports (a page per family), plus various rankings of families (inflows, largest number of medalist winners, largest percentage of AUM in 4 and 5 star funds). Methodology description.
    https://morningstardirect.morningstar.com/clientcomm/DueDiligenceReports/FundFamily150.pdf
    Also contains a link to a data spreadsheet so that you can play around with the numbers yourself.
    https://morningstardirect.morningstar.com/clientcomm/DueDiligenceReports/FundFamily150_2019_Q2.xlsm
    That is important, as you may disagree with how M* applies its data to come up with family ratings. For example, DoubleLine has the highest percentage (89%) of AUM in 4 and 5 star funds (concentrated in two funds). But the family as a whole is given a neutral rating.
  • Paul Merriman: Why Do These Two Nearly Identical Fidelity Funds Have Such Different Performance?
    Just another article about how index funds must be better than actively managed funds. He does not appear to have a real interest in looking at Fidelity's date funds:
    "As I was reviewing the list of investment options in a reader’s 401(k) plan, I realized that Fidelity offers two different versions of its target-date funds."
    Must have been an intensive review, because he missed three other series of Fidelity target date funds: Managed Payout, Simplicity RMD, and its newest series, Freedom Blend funds (more on that below).
    Fidelity 2020 Target date funds (five series)
    "Here are two mutual funds managed by the same company, with identical goals. The only apparent difference is active vs. passive management."
    Apparently, a 1-2% difference in allocations between the two sets of funds wasn't apparent to him. Here are M*'s reports on the two Freedom series he discusses. The first row of numbers under the glide path figure in each report are the equity percentages held by the series for each target year.
    M* Freedom Target-Date Fund Series Report (12/31/2018)
    M* Freedom Index Target-Date Fund series Report (12/31/2018)
    From the Index series report:
    Despite the notable cost advantage, each Freedom Index fund lagged its Freedom series counterpart since the Freedom Index series' late-2009 launch through December 2018; the funds underperformed by 15-73 basis points annualized. The absence of active management and certain subasset classes, like high-yield bonds, from Freedom Index contributed to these re-
    sults.
    Whoops. At least Merriman's column is labeled "Opinion".
    Regarding the Freedom Blend Funds (from Barron's, no subscription needed for the article):
    Actively managed funds will comprise a bigger slice of the pie in areas where the markets are less efficient and active managers can add more value, says Andrew Dierdorf, co-manager of the Freedom Funds. That will primarily be in small-caps, high-yield bonds, floating-rate loans, and emerging markets. The funds’ underlying exposure to large-cap equities and government fixed income will be more index-oriented, he says.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelitys-latest-gambit-for-your-retirement-savings-1536247498
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I have owned IOFIX twice for several months. IOFIX is the only fund in my watch list with much higher volatility than the category every several months with no apparent reason which scars me.
    See YTD chart of IOFIX+JMSIX. Look at 02/2019 where IOFIX was down -0.4...on 04/2019 down -0,8%...08/2019 up more than 2%. A bond fund that can go up more than 2% in just 2 weeks can also go down.
    PV shows that IOFIX has an amazing risk/reward long term (link) for 3 year performance but YTD not so much.
    Portfolio CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio
    PIMIX 5.34% 1.91% 8.60% 0.58% -1.11% 1.95 4.01
    PUCZX 6.89% 2.24% 9.22% 1.75% -1.13% 2.38 6.63
    PDIIX 5.99% 3.45% 11.10% -0.99% -2.23% 1.31 2.8
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    I'm 46 and probably 90% of my investment holdings over two significant portfolios are quality dividend-paying, good-moat (in my view) equities. I've got a big pile of cash to be deployed, but I'm not selling stuff these days - I'm looking to buy into crisis - and no, I don't consider my cash to be an investment position per se.
    Hi folks..if you were 20 30 yrs younger (around 30 or 40s yo) what would your portfolio looking like now.. 75-80%equities?!,,, vs if you are 65s yo (? 40s%equities?!) ..
    thx have good Sunday
  • bondy diversification
    I can appreciate your interest in buying a fund at Merrill or Fidelity (those being the two brokerages at which you have accounts). Still, giving up 40 basis points for convenience (PDIIX has an ER that's 1/3 lower than PDVAX's, 0.79% vs. 1.19%) seems like a lot.
    http://financials.morningstar.com/fund/purchase-info.html?t=PDIIX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Not quite sure what "it" is that AGG and FADMX do not do. Nor what "ongoing strength" you see in FSIFX, which has underperformed its multisector peers in every calendar year of its existence, starting in 2014.
    Disregarding the particular types of bonds PONAX holds, given its sub ½ year duration it faces a relative headwind when interest rates are dropping. And this year rates have fallen like a stone.
    So a question is: do you expect rates to continue to plummet? If so, then sure, swap horses. If you don't expect a severe decline to continue, then it's more a matter of how the portfolio is invested (i.e. the yield it gets on its holdings after accounting for defaults). And if you expect a rate reversal (rates rising again), that would seem to lend it a tailwind.
    If what you're looking for is an NTF multisector fund (inferred from your mentions of FSIFX, PDVAX, and FADMX) that has outperformed PDVAX, there's LBNDX. Same duration, better performance YTD, 3 year, 5 year (roughly the period since a major management overhaul for LBNDX). And same ER as PDIIX (with an insignificantly higher SEC yield). And it does it without leverage (Diversifed Income's bond exposure is 162% of AUM).
    Of course this is all based on each fund's aggregate figures and doesn't consider what's inside the funds.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    Hi folks..if you were 20 30 yrs younger (around 30 or 40s yo) what would your portfolio looking like now.. 75-80%equities?!,,, vs if you are 65s yo (? 40s%equities?!) ..
    thx have good Sunday
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    @MikeW, For now I'm staying overweight equities by +5% with the overweight being mostly held in equity dividend funds which are a part of the growth & income area of my portfolio. Now being overweight equity (at the max allowed within my asset allocation) is the primary reason I'm closing the spiff. After all, fixed income is paying next to nothing so dividend paying equity looks attractive, to me.
    In short words, I need to trim equity to stay within the confins of my asset allocation. And, based upon Old_Skeet's current market barometer reading (of overvalued for the S&P 500 Index) now is a good time for me to trim. Can stocks go higher in the nearterm? Perhaps ... and, indeed I hope so. However, I look for them to be pretty much news event driven ... and, then there is the FOMC wizards that will also play a part in stock market movement based upon their rate settings.
    For now, I'm still with my thoughts that they went to far and to fast in their recent upward rate increase movement; and, governing against a Presidential request to keep them low while he deals with trade issues. In short words, the FOMC wizards threw stock market investors (and our President) under the bus back in December. After all, and since then, investors have left stocks and moved to bonds with interest rates moving from about 3.25% downward to about 1.5% (US10YrT) as investors sought cover in bonds.
    I know I reduced equities within my portfolio from 50% to 40%, in good part, because of the FOMC's rate increase move; but, also for an aged based rebalance. I would have kept my equity allocation at 50% had the FOMC not been so aggressive with their rate increase campaign. Seems, to me, the head wizard might be heading for a fall should the FOMC stall out the economy more so than the President. From my perspective, most folks realize that we have to somehow deal with China because of their past unfair trade practices.
    And, if our government encourages off shore production, of targeted goods for shipment to the US, be moved to other countries from China ... Well, then so be it. After all, we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And, make no mistake FOMC wizards ... stall the stock market and consumer spending will decline putting pressure on the economy. After all, consumer spending is what drives our economy. Just this last December, I put off buying a new vehicle because of the decline in the stock market associated with your rate increase campaign. And, to date, I have yet to make this purchase.
    Yep, and again FOMC wizards, in my book you went to far and too fast with your rate increase campaign and also against a Presidential request not to raise rates while our governemnt was dealing with foreign trade issues with China. This put undue pressure on the stock market and the economy. Since we got a new head FOMC wizard, things have not gone well. I sure wish uncle Ben and aunt Janet were still minding the store.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
    1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like Pets.com and
    Webvan. Van Wagoner , Turner Microcap Growth, Strong and Janus funds come to mind. Some of them ultimately got in trouble for juicing their new fund returns with more shares of these IPOs than other funds at the shop and not acknowledging that it was IPOs doing the heavy lifting and that once the funds grew in size the IPO effect wouldn’t last. In fact, many of those IPOs subsequently flamed out. In any case, times have changed and we no longer have a 1990s IPO market for new funds to benefit from.
    2. I am fairly certain those Kobren and Charles Schwab studies did not adjust for survivorship bias. I would have to check but I did write about them back then—favorably too I believe—and I recall no mention of survivor bias. Please provide any evidence of the new fund effect that adjusts for survivor bias today if you have it. I doubt there is any evidence for it as I see bad new funds liquidated every day. In fact, their liquidations are tracked here. Nor is this to say I am against new funds. But I think newness must be accompanied with additional quantitative and qualitative research, the kind David does on this site. Fees should be part of that research in my view, and there is far more evidence of fees importance to performance than the new fund effect.
    3. Think of the kind of fund this is and what it’s investing in—non-agency debt. That debt has in the past become extraordinarily illiquid during times of market stress. And funds that invested in it have been crushed due to illiquidity. I suggest MFOers look up the Regions Morgan Keegan funds if they doubt the risks of a liquidity crunch. Such a sector is not the best fit for a mutual fund that must provide daily liquidity in my view especially if the fund concentrates in that sector to a high degree over more liquid mortgage bonds. The sector meanwhile is shrinking each year.
    4. At $2 billion in assets this fund collects $30 million in fees a year. At $3 billion it collects $45 million. The team required to investigate this one sector of the market must be highly compensated with that fee. Are they earning it with good Individual security selection or by concentrating in the riskiest sectors of the mortgage market more so than their lower cost peers. Regions Morgan Keegan once had a great record too before the housing bust by taking such risks.
    5. In a highly illiquid sector money managers often use a pricing system called fair value for estimating securities value in the portfolio. That can make the fund seem a lot more stable than it actually is and hides risk. It also creates an incentive for fraud in how securities prices are marked.
    #1 pretty much sums it up and very close to what I wrote in my book. Half my profits in 98 and 99 came from the new fund effect in tech and small cap growth because of allotments to hot IPOs. I can think of a few new funds from Janus and INVESCO that were up 15% to 25% in a month. Even used Strong’s new high yield fund to my advantage in 96 where it beat not only all its peers but the S&P. I also exploited datelining - probably the closest thing to a free lunch you could ever find on Wall Street. I make no bones about luck being on my side in the 90s. Funny thing about luck as I have also been lucky since 2000 too, especially the luckiest trade of my lifetime - junk bonds on 12/16/2008 when the Fed rang the loudest bell I have ever heard on Wall Street. Probably explains why The Luck Factor by Max Gunther is one of top three favorite books.
    As for IOFIX, I just think they are sitting on a gold mine in the legacy non agency rmbs they have remaining in their portfolio. Can’t think of any time since the Great Recession where there has been any illiquidity in those bonds. Can’t think of where there could be any wave of defaults from those legacy bonds issued between 04 and 07 especially from the equity that has now built up over the years by the homeowners behind such loans. But that is a story for another time. My main concern is IOFIX becomes a groupthink fund. I also worry what the managers do for an encore in the next couple years as the legacy market shrinks even further and they no longer have that to juice their returns. I am not wedded to IOFIX. If you read the archives you will see I went into junk bonds at the end of December but they petered out five months later and went back into other areas of Bondland.