Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells, Others Accused of Bond Pricing Conspiracy
    https://www.financialadvisoriq.com/c/2750603/333853/morgan_stanley_merrill_wells_others_accused_bond_pricing_conspiracy?referrer_module=issueHeadline
    Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells, Others Accused of Bond Pricing Conspiracy
    By Miriam RozenMay 14, 2020
    /A proposed class action lawsuit claiming market makers have been conspiring to inflate corporate bond prices will likely help brokers and advisors illustrate to clients the advantages of investing in bonds through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, according to chief investment officers./
  • Fortunes are going to be made - Orman
    Hi @rforno
    You noted:
    " in 'safe' bonds earning piddling amounts"
    Is/are the piles of debt too large across most bond areas? Yes. Will a day of reckoning arrive to blow up the debt markets? The potential exists.
    Are some bond areas not earning their "keep" now? Yes. But, other quality areas are, well; "providing" for their owners.
    While a debt blowup potential exists, I do not find this anymore more worrisome than the forward theoretical value of many equity sectors at this time.
    The chart includes SP500 vs a few higher quality bond areas: IEF, TLT, EDV, ZROZ and AGG.
    The chart is placed at 1 year (254 days). Right click the 254 days to find other default choices......YTD, etc.
    CHART
    Be careful and well,
    Catch
  • Fortunes are going to be made - Orman
    If I was sitting on 25M like her I'd probably have 5-10M in 'safe' bonds earning piddling amounts as my cash 'bucket' for emergencies and/or my retirement piggy bank. Remember, the more you have sitting "earning next to nothing" the more "something" you will earn from that position ... you don't *need* to have 4% payouts from them to get a comfortable return if there's enough mass there to begin with.
    The rest would be mostly in equities and perhaps a few direct investments within my area of expertise.
  • UBS Sees Muni-Bond Market Facing Biggest Storm in Modern History
    I plan to keep muni's at about an 8% allocation within my income sleeve. My muni fund (FLAAX) is off it's 52 week high by about -7.6% and year-to-date it is down -3.1% ... but, making a come back.
  • Trump and china news..
    Hi @kings53man et al
    A quick look at a plain, active managed long term Treasury fund, being VUSTX vs SP500 starting at Jan. 1999, which includes all distributions.
    So for China, Japan and the many others who hold our U.S. Treasury debt, they don't cry often from their holdings returns over the long term and likely don't feel stupid.
    Chart
  • Trump and china news..
    I think 45 should stick with what he knows which is diddley squat.
  • UBS Sees Muni-Bond Market Facing Biggest Storm in Modern History
    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-14/ubs-sees-muni-bond-market-facing-biggest-storm-in-modern-history
    UBS Sees Muni-Bond Market Facing Biggest Storm in Modern History
    By Amanda Albright and Danielle Moran
    May 14, 2020, 9:30 AM EDT
    States still seen as a haven, despite vast budget gaps
    But once-booming high-yield niche may see ‘surge of defaults’
    Caution tape block off a lakefront bike path in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., on Friday, April 3, 2020. The world's workers are reeling from the initial shock of the coronavirus recession, with job losses and welfare claims around the globe already running into the millions this week.
    Caution tape block off a lakefront bike path in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., on Friday, April 3, 2020. The world's workers are reeling from the initial shock of the coronavirus recession, with job losses and welfare claims around the globe already running into the millions this week. Photographer: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg
    To the analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management, the $3.9 trillion municipal-bond market is heading into the biggest financial storm anyone has ever seen.
    dropped about 9% this year, on track for their worst yearly loss since 2008, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes.
    High-yield munis have yet to rebound as much as safer assets
    UBS had warned clients about the risks of investing in high-yield before the sell-off began in March and said that such debt issued for student housing projects, shopping malls and recycling factories may not recover anytime soon.
    “The unprecedented monetary and fiscal support for the economy will allow most municipal bond issuers to recover, but the high yield sector is particularly exposed,” UBS said in the report.
    UBS said higher education and health-care bonds pose particularly high risks. For private colleges, the economic crisis may exacerbate long-standing concerns around enrollment declines and affordability, causing default risk to rise “appreciably,” the firm said.
    “We expect the severity of the current recession to result in a surge of defaults among high-yield bonds,” they wrote. “There are simply too many bonds secured by nursing homes, continuing care retirement communities, and economic development projects to reach a more benign conclusion.”
    To read more: Gimme-Tax-Shelter Mentality Ignores Threatening Credit Storm
  • Trump and china news..
    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-asks-board-of-federal-retirement-plan-to-15264929.php
    Trump asks board of federal retirement plan to not invest in China, setting up showdown
    Eric Yoder, The Washington Post Published 11:05 am PDT, Tuesday, May 12, 2020
    /the Trump administration has asked the board that runs the retirement savings program for federal employees and military personnel to not invest in Chinese businesses, ratcheting up the dispute into a potential showdown over who ultimately runs the program./
    Not sure if trump correct, likely not long term imho
    We are still 20-25s% invest w EM and China. I Dont trust Trump China nor Russians. I do believe EEM and Russian markets are cheap now and maybe heading much higher 3 - 5 yrs from now regardless of whom will be next POTUS...Wonder why trump did not boycott Russians
    Any thoughts?
  • Fortunes are going to be made - Orman
    Howdy folks,
    At this time I see buying an index as the silliest thing you could do. Do you know how many zombies are in the Dow or 500? The government bailouts are going to stop one day and when the music stops the bankruptcies are going to be legion. Can you make a buck playing zombies? Sure, but you better be nimble. And there are those that like the short side but that's fighting the Fed and that's risky.
    I'd rather invest my equity allocation in companies that are winning now and will win post virus. Companies that have cashflow and are still paying dividends. You are probably a customer of theirs.
    Good luck
    Rono
  • Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Income Fund to be reorganized
    I've got another deep value fund that I've been wataching as well (TEQIX).
    A Star From the Previous Bear Market Is Struggling in This One, Kinnel (Morningstar), May 5
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/982332/a-star-from-the-previous-bear-market-is-struggling-in-this-one
    If the market had kindly stuck to the [2007-2009] pattern of reversal, growth funds would be destroyed and value managers finally vindicated. But no such luck: Once again value is bearing the brunt, though financials haven't been hit the hardest.
    [T]his bear market has been much tougher on Mutual Series funds than the previous one was. A big part of that story is cash. ...
    In March 2009 when the market hit bottom, ...Franklin Mutual Quest had raised cash to ... 49%. ... it was a big win. ... [It] timed the cash raise nicely but timed [ts] re-entry so poorly that [it] squandered much of [its] earlier outperformance. ...
    At the end of January 2020 ... Franklin Mutual Quest [held] 11% [in cash]. ... Quest cranked cash up to 30% by the end of March. From Feb. 19 to March 23, 2020, Franklin Mutual Quest lost 30%.
    Too little cash too late?
  • Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Income Fund to be reorganized
    Thanks for posting. HWIAX is one of Old_Skeet's laggards. It was a deep value fund which had been faltering. Thankfully, it was a very small position within my portfolio which I establised a few years ago when the good times were rolling. I never added to it awaiting deep value to recover. I'm thinking I'm going to let it roll into HWHAX which has about a 6.5% yield and see how things go.
    I've got another deep value fund that I've been wataching as well (TEQIX). Opened to watch and keep up with how deep value was performing. It's been a laggard as well ... but, doing better than HWIAX.
  • You Have a 95% chance of Loss When You Buy an Index (Dow)
    And, for equities, you should expect to see a 50%+ price decline a couple times a century, a 30% decline once a generation, and a 10% price decline at least every other year.
    Feels like we're ahead of schedule for this century.
  • Ancora Special Opportunity Fund is to be liquidated (updated)
    The fund is closing, not shutting down. Normally it's not surprising to see a fine performing small cap fund close. However, a fund with just $13M AUM (and a corresponding ER a bit south of 3%) would be more likely to shut down than to close.
    Perhaps this is being done to give the new manager some breathing space?
    The original manager (16 years) just left.
    Effective as of May 1, 2020, Mr. Richard A. Barone will no longer serve as a portfolio manager of the Ancora Income Fund and Ancora Special Opportunity Fund. Accordingly, all references to Mr. Barone as portfolio manager in the Funds’ Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI are hereby removed.
    Also effective as of May 1, 2020, Mr. James Bernard, CFA, and Kevin Gale will serve as the new co-portfolio managers of the Ancora Income Fund, and John Micklitsch will serve as the new portfolio manager for the Ancora Special Opportunity Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1260667/000116204420000277/ancora497202005.htm
    It is curious that this supplement, detailing a May 1 change in management, is dated May 7th. This might have been an unexpected change.
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Couldn't GE do a reverse stock split to stay above $5 ?
    Sure they could. And the options would adjust accordingly.
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Couldn't GE do a reverse stock split to stay above $5 ?
  • This is the most expensive time to buy stocks in 20 years
    The rule for taxing T-IRA distributions shouldn't sound too convoluted. It just requires you to do things proportionately.
    Say that your total T-IRA value at the end of 2019 was $100K ($5K post-tax, $95K pre-tax contributions and earnings). Then 5% of the IRA was post-tax, 95% pre-tax.
    So when you take money out in 2020, 5% of it is post-tax (tax free) and 95% of it is pre-tax (taxable). If you take out $5K this year, then you're taking out 5% x $5K = $250 of post-tax money. That leaves $4750 in post-tax money.
    At the end of 2020 you repeat the percentage calculation. If your IRA is again worth $100K, then 4.75% of it is post-tax, and 95.25% is pre-tax.
    ---
    As far as using an out of state tax person goes, the only potential downside I can see is less familiarity with state tax laws. Most things tend to be the same or similar across states. But each state seems to have its own set of quirks that might help you or might serve as gotchas.
    Simple example: In Hawaii, it looks like you had to have made your first estimated tax payment (if any) by April 20th. But Massachusetts, like many other states, extended the 1Q and 2Q estimate deadlines to July 15th.
    A responsible professional is going to study the rules, but that's still time and effort. And as a novice for the new state, there's still the possibility that they might miss something.
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Put on a 5/7 (Jan 22) combo spread on GE for a small credit, 20 spreads controlling 2K shares. Just taking it as a speculative position on a corporate turnaround/recovery .... if GE goes below $5 it may run the risk of getting delisted and/or removed from funds, so I kind of wonder if the 'bottom' is in on the stock. It won't take much to make the position nicely profitable, and the downside risk is quite low/comfortable for me.
  • Reorganization of two FPA Funds
    FPA International Value Fund (FPIVX
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465920060911/tm2019617-1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2019617-1_497.htm 497
    FPA Funds Trust
    FPA International Value Fund (FPIVX)
    Supplement dated May 13, 2020 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated April 30, 2020
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus and SAI for FPA International Value Fund (the “Fund”), a series of FPA Funds Trust (the “Trust”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    At a meeting held on May 12, 2020, the Board of Trustees (“Board” or “Trustees”) of the Trust approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) with respect to the Fund. The Plan of Reorganization provides for the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Fund into the Phaeacian Accent International Value Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of Datum One Series Trust, a newly created open-end registered management investment company.
    A notice of a special meeting of Fund shareholders and and combined proxy statement and prospectus for the New Fund, seeking shareholder approval for the Plan of Reorganization (the “Special Meeting”) will be mailed to Fund shareholders in advance of the Special Meeting, which is expected to be held in the third quarter of 2020. If the Plan of Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders at the Special Meeting, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the New Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes.
    If approved, the Reorganization is expected to occur after the Special Meeting, in either the third or fourth quarter of 2020. Prior to the Reorganization, First Pacific Advisors, LP, the Fund’s current investment adviser, will continue to manage the Fund in the ordinary course, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, Phaeacian Partners LLC (“Phaeacian”) will serve as the investment adviser to the New Fund. Phaeacian is a newly formed investment adviser that is a subsidiary of Polar Capital Holdings plc., and is in part owned by the Fund’s current portfolio manager. If the Reorganization is approved, the New Fund will be managed by the Fund’s current portfolio manager, in his new role with Phaeacian, using substantially similar principal investment strategies to those currently used to manage the Fund.
    Fund shareholders may purchase and redeem shares of the Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day before the closing of the Reorganization, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Purchase and redemption requests received after closing of the Reorganization (if approved) should be directed to the New Fund in accordance with its prospectus.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    FPA Paramount Fund, Inc.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/76210/000110465920060913/tm2019619-1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2019619-1_497.htm 497
    FPA Paramount Fund, Inc. (FPRAX)
    Supplement dated May 13, 2020 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated January 31, 2020
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus and SAI for FPA Paramount Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    At a meeting held on May 12, 2020, the Board of Directors (“Board” or “Directors”) of the Fund approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) with respect to the Fund. The Plan of Reorganization provides for the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Fund into the Phaeacian Global Value Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of Datum One Series Trust, a newly created open-end registered management investment company.
    A notice of a special meeting of Fund shareholders and and combined proxy statement and prospectus for the New Fund, seeking shareholder approval for the Plan of Reorganization (the “Special Meeting”) will be mailed to Fund shareholders in advance of the Special Meeting, which is expected to be held in the third quarter of 2020. If the Plan of Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders at the Special Meeting, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the New Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes.
    If approved, the Reorganization is expected to occur after the Special Meeting, in either the third or fourth quarter of 2020. Prior to the Reorganization, First Pacific Advisors, LP, the Fund’s current investment adviser, will continue to manage the Fund in the ordinary course, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, Phaeacian Partners LLC (“Phaeacian”) will serve as the investment adviser to the New Fund. Phaeacian is a newly formed investment adviser that is a subsidiary of Polar Capital Holdings plc., and is in part owned by the Fund’s current portfolio managers. If the Reorganization is approved, the New Fund will be managed by the Fund’s current portfolio managers, in their new role with Phaeacian, using substantially similar principal investment strategies to those currently used to manage the Fund.
    Fund shareholders may purchase and redeem shares of the Fund in the ordinary course until the last business day before the closing of the Reorganization, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. Purchase and redemption requests received after closing of the Reorganization (if approved) should be directed to the New Fund in accordance with its prospectus.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.