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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Wanna play a game? Silver price being pushed this morning by Reddit Army.

    @rono wrote about this, too; but I also noticed bumps in SILVER last week...........
    He and I; and perhaps a few others here recall the manipulation of the silver market in the late 1970's by the Hunt Brothers.
    And let us discover how this goes. Reddit army traders and whomever are pushing this price area right now.
    You may view this graphic for pre-market, open market and post market pricing for SLV.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Reuters: The Fidelity Intrinsic Opportunities fund, for instance, owns 9.75% of GameStop’s outstanding shares, according to Lipper data. Yet that position accounts for just 0.64% of the fund’s assets. The fund is up 5.6% for the year-to-date, approximately 1.5 percentage points less than the benchmark Russell 2000 index.
    The BlackRock Advantage Small Cap Core fund holds 0.03% of its assets in GameStop, according to Lipper.
    Overall, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, owned about 9.2 million shares in GameStop as of Dec. 31, 2020, spread over several funds. If BlackRock has not since sold any of those shares, its stake’s value is up $2.4 billion since the start of the year.
  • Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
    Along the same vein as Grantham, in this podcast, David Rosenberg thinks stocks are priced for perfection.
    https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/sthh_0109/
    And here too:
    https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-life-is-not-going-back-to-normal-even-if-the-market-doesnt-see-it-yet
    “ Of the 10 million who have still not found a job after being laid off this past year, we estimate that only three million will come back to the workforce. That leaves seven million unemployed long term on top of the four million who have already exited the labour market.
    Life is not going back to normal even if the market doesn’t yet see it and the consensus builds that we are heading to the Roaring Twenties.”
    And on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/econguyrosie/status/1355187715919257604?s=21
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Yes they made 1 billion on paper, but what happens when they start to dump 9 million shares back into the market ? I googled share holders of GameStop & up pops Vanguard 5.4 million & Fido 6.8 million. these aren't total holdings as of now, but an earlier total. Do you suppose they draw straws to see who gets to sell the first million shares ??!!
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    I wish my daughter had taken my advice about selling some of her Beanie Babies when they became a bubble! Unfortunately, she didn’t and we still have a closet full of them. At least our puppy has found a use for them.
    I bought my nephew and niece each one when they first became a rage. My nephew sold his for something like $1,200 and my niece got about $500 for hers.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Interesting observations:
    The Securities and Exchange Commission said Friday it is reviewing the recent volatility in GameStop and other stocks. Good. Not nearly enough is known about the perverse incentives and feedback loops driving these market movements. For example, who is in this “crowd”?....In the GameStop run-up, have there been crowd instigators on Reddit with undisclosed ties to institutions that have a financial stake in the outcome? The SEC might like to know.
    And what role has been played by hedge funds standing to profit from the dizzying price increase?...BlackRock, owning 9 million shares of GameStop — likely made more than $1 billion on the madness.
    Link: destabilizing collision between social media and the real world
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    Most here, if you're not operating a hedge fund; may have your own form of theoretical downside equity protection via some form of hopefully, productive high quality bonds. Presuming none of you had to cover big short positions in equity(s); bonds didn't do much this week to offer more support for a portfoio.
    We'll discover how the markets move along next week, eh?
    With this, I'll post the list again; which may give you a sense of how bonds within your holdings mix fared last week and YTD.
    JANUARY 29 WEEK / YTD .....Data M* performance
    --- AGG = +.05% / -.74% (widely used bond benchmark, mixed holdings)
    --- MINT = + .00% / +.08% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .02% / +.02% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .05% /-.28% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% /-1.1% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.17% / +.27% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.21% / -1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +.08% /-3.6% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.27% / -4.7% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.09 /-5.4% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    --- BAGIX = +.05% / -.63 (active managed, plain vanilla, h.q. bond fund)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.38% / -.38% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -.07% / -1.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    We all knew that there were a few small winners in Gamestop, and not being investors through Robinhood, etc, Good for him and Mom.
    OJ and a few others will recall the pleasure of having Scott post here.

    June, 2014, Gamestop , Scott.
    A prolific writer and thinker here, IMHO.
    I agreed with Scott, that the forward business model for Gamestop was not heading in a positive direction; in particular related to online vs brick and mortar/malls at the time.
    There are more discussions in pieces of other writes, dating back to 2012 regarding Gamestop.
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    Well, the GameStop stock boom has been quite a lesson for Jaydyn Carr. Here's edited excerpts from a Washington Post article.
    By Sydney Page
    Jan. 30, 2021 at 3:00 a.m. PST
    The GameStop stock surge has benefited small-scale investors, many of them surprised at their unlikely windfalls. Perhaps none so much as a 10-year-old boy from San Antonio.
    The fifth-grader was gifted 10 GameStop shares, each at $6.19, as a Kwanzaa present from his mother in December 2019. She bought the stock simply because her son liked to buy video games at the store and she wanted to teach him a little about the stock market.
    In a matter of minutes this week, Jaydyn Carr became an unexpected beneficiary of the market mayhem, as his $60 stake in the video game retailer grew to $3,200. “Is this really happening right now?” Jaydyn’s mother, Nina Carr, remembers asking herself. “I couldn’t believe it was true.”
    Carr, 31, was working in her home office on Wednesday when a slew of news alerts about GameStop’s Reddit-spurred surge started appearing on her phone. Her jaw dropped. Once she absorbed the news, she sprinted to her son’s bedroom. “I was so excited for him,” she said. In simple terms, she described to Jaydyn what happened to his GameStop shares and why they suddenly skyrocketed.
    “She was saying that stocks hardly ever go up this way, so if I wanted to sell it, we should sell it now,” Jaydyn said.
    Ultimately, the choice was his. “It wouldn’t be fair for me to make the decision on his behalf,” Carr explained. Besides, she added, “if he lost the money, it would have been a lesson learned.” So, she asked her only child the burning question: “Do you want to sell or stay?” To her relief, Jaydyn decided to sell.
    When Carr bought the GameStop shares in 2019 as a Kwanzaa gift, her sole intention in purchasing the stock was to teach her then-eight-year-old son about Ujamaa, which means, “cooperative economics.” It’s one of the seven principles of Kwanzaa. “The goal was to ensure he knows the value of a dollar and how to manage money,” Carr said, explaining that Ujamaa is the idea of sharing wealth while also strengthening personal finances and self-reliance. Carr said that since Jaydyn’s father passed away in February 2014, it has been a priority for her to educate her son about money management.
    “I am very frugal, and saving is a big part of what I do. Being the only parent, I want to set a good example for him,” she said. “I got into finance when his dad passed away. I wanted to make sure his future was in good hands.” Carr — who is a public health nutritionist and runs her own business — felt the gift was an opportunity to reinforce the importance of investments.
    “I was so excited. I thought it wasn’t even reality,” Jaydyn said. Carr then walked her son through the selling process, and he cashed out his shares. The plan is to put $2,200 in Jaydyn’s savings account and then invest the remaining $1,000 as a mother-son team. According to Jaydyn, he has already learned a lot from his mom: “She is always teaching me what to do in emergencies in life and how to save money to one day buy a car and a house,” he said. For Jaydyn, this is just the beginning. He has already got big plans: “I am now looking for companies that pay dividends,” he said confidently.

    image
    (Image is from the Washington Post.)
  • Small Caps
    Really crazy performance history of feast or famine. MSSMX has been the #1 ranked in its cat 3x including 2020 and this year, but in 2014-2016 threw up a string of 99-96-96.
    On the shorts issue...keep in mind that MSSMX was UP 150% in 2020. The big squeeze problems seem to be a 2021 thing, with GME for example being a January spectacle. Also, it does not appear to use leverage, and if so, the big risk then would be downside protection when all heck breaks loose on any of the squeeze targets. If so, trusting MS to be all over that. Welcome further comments.
    All that said, its closest domestic SCG peer (via Fido menu) is behind a whopping 20% YTD TR, UP a mere 13.5%.
    There's something happening here
    What it is ain't exactly clear

    -Stills
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Howdy folks,
    Watching the news, it's getting crazier and crazier. Baseball_Fan may be correct that this could lead to something larger. Let's face it, stocks are way overvalued as is the market. We all know this. Granted, there are a lot of reasons for this irrational exuberance such as no other option and trillions of dollars of play money, but it's still insane.
    What I'm watching is the spillover into the silver market. Silver has long been shorted enormously and there is an attempted short squeeze going on not unlike when the Hunt Brothers tried back in the late 70's. The problem with squeezing the silver shorts is the government normally steps in early. It'll be curious. Right now, there is limited available gold and silver bullion coins. The mint is out. Here are a couple of articles from kitco, but please realize that kitco is in the business.
    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-01-29/A-short-squeeze-on-silver-from-Redditt-s-WallStreetBets-continues.html
    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-29/Can-silver-be-short-squeezed-to-1-000-Peter-Hug.html
    Now. In all honesty, I don't see how a reddit type of squeeze can work in silver or for that matter, gold. The paper price is set by the futures market and most contracts are simply rolled over rather than someone actually 'taking delivery'. Granted, there is only about 44% of silver available to cover the shorts, BUT the authorities will change the rules if too many want to take delivery. What is happening is the demand for physical silver is skyrocketing, BUT that's simply resulting is an increase in the premiums. And this is the divergence between the paper price and the street price. Very curious to watch.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Naked shorting is selling a security short before you have identified the particular shares you are selling. Except for market makers this is illegal.
    The general prohibition of naked short selling is Rule 203(b)(1), codified as 17 CFR § 242.203(b)(1). The exceptions allowing this practice are in Rule 203(b)(2).
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.203
    It's easy for traders to create a 100%+ shorted stock legally. If you think about it, even shorting one share of stock creates a "fictitious" share that can be shorted. Suppose there's only one share of a company stock. Bob wants to short the stock, so he borrows it from Carol and sells it to Alice. Now, even though there's only one "real" share, Carol and Alice both believe they own shares of the company. Net, there's still only one share: 2 long + 1 short.
    We're already at 100% short. Rinse and repeat. Ted decides to short the stock. He borrows the one "real" share from Alice and sells it to you. There are now two shorts even though there's only one "real" share. Net, still one share: 3 long + 2 short.
    Now I decide that I really want the share, so I offer you much more than the last trading price. You're okay with the price and sell me the share. Bob and Ted, both being short and facing margin calls (not to mention the chance the women might want their shares back to sell), panic and start a bidding war against each other.
    Their predicament is worsened by the fact that they're both bidding for just one "real" share. There's insufficient supply to met demand at any price without serially unwinding the chain of short sales.
    A smart company might do what AAL is doing - taking advantage of the situation with a secondary offering.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-airlines-set-issue-stock-193849410.html
  • The Best Core Stock Funds - M*
    These mutual funds and ETFs blend growth and value large-cap stocks and earn Morningstar Analyst Ratings of Gold.
    image
    Link
  • Small Caps
    OK...MSSMX UP 150% in 2020. UP 30% YTD.
    Read it again slowly and try to understand it.
    On the short squeeze question, speaking generally to all readers/posters...
    I would caution limiting one's concerns about this issue to just SCs and/or any specific fund, e.g., MSSMX. This is potentially a very large, diverse problem that could affect investors in many ways, yet TBD, and may be affecting some/sevral of your holdings unbeknownst to you right now. That said...
    Most recent portfolio data, even on the MS site, is from 09/30/20. It does NOT appear any of the short squeeze companies*** are held by MSSMX, at least not in the top ~50%-60% of its holdings. Invite others to look for some as well - could have missed one.
    ***UPDATE: SFIX is on both the Fido holdings and Short Squeeze company lists below (as a 5.21% holding per Fido list) but not sure if it's a problem child short.
    Also note:
    (1) These are dated holdings lists and much could have changed in the 4th Qtr and/or Jan 2021. Unless there were significant changes, does NOT appear to be a problem. (If it is, it's currently a GOOD problem to have. Just sayin'.)
    (2) Keep in mind this is Morgan Stanley we're talking about here. If anybody stands a chance of being on the right side of how these squeezes turn out, I like my chances teaming up with them.
    (3) I am NOT recommending that any readers/posters BUY/HOLD this fund. If you are considering doing so, do so after your own DD and at your own risk/peril. Like all MFs, it does NOT come with a warning label and "Nobody rings a bell" when it's time to consider getting out. (Thanks Art Cashin!)
    (4) If you do BUY it, note that Dramamine is not included with your purchase.
    (5) Lastly, and FWIW, it is an (intended, at least) LT hold for me and like they say, I'm "Enjoy(ing) the ride!"
    https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/registered-investment-advisor/product-and-performance/mutual-funds/us-equity/inception-portfolio.shareClass.I.html
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/61744J614?type=o-NavBar
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-biggest-short-squeezes-in-the-stock-market-including-gamestop-and-amc-11611842270
    @Graust I recall you helping me several times over the years. Happy to have reciprocated at least in part. Be sure to Buckle Up on this one.
  • Any Mutual funds up on the day (1/29) ?
    MSSMX up 2.13% everything else in the red. I’m not sweating it.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    @msf
    >> A stock that is shorted more than 100% (by one investor borrowing the stock to short, then another investor borrowing the same stock to short again)
    ? Is this different from naked shorting?
    And if not, does naked shorting happen now? Investopedia and other sources imply a strong no, but it certainly did occur in 07-09, and Investopedia goes on, on that topic page and the failure-to-deliver page, to acknowledge that it may still exist --- and even defends it (!).
    Roger about RH environment and visible crowd. I was asking only about trading, but the vibe is different, sure. Maybe Fido should have Zoom / Facebook-style trading.
    @sfnative, a good friend of mine used to be a bigwig SEC attorney and then worked for the dark side afterward. He reported (and would report, I expect) quite the opposite of what you say. But that was a while ago, so maybe it has tended to ineptitude.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Stocks that are heavily shorted are most susceptible to Robinhood trading
    ISTM the risk of a short squeeze (and manipulation thereof) increases rapidly as the magnitude of short positions increase. A stock that is shorted more than 100% (by one investor borrowing the stock to short, then another investor borrowing the same stock to short again) must almost surely experience a positive feedback loop if its price starts to rise significantly and investors attempt to buy "fictitious" shares to cover.
    There's already Reg SHO in place to control shorting. Notably Rule 203 that requires short sellers to locate shares to short before shorting. It would not seem to be difficult to enhance this rule to require the location not only of shares to short, but shares of a company that has not been 100% shorted (or 50% shorted, or whatever threshold works).
    https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
    This wouldn't protect investors from getting squeezed, but it would seem to impede the feedback loop.
    And how is RH trading different from free fast trading at ML or Fido ?
    How is buying a lottery ticket different from investing in a stock? The recreation value of the former is greater while the expected return of the latter is greater. Robinhood as a platform offers more "fun".
    They can browse the 100 most-held stocks among fellow users for inspiration. An entertainment ecosystem has risen up alongside Robinhood; TikTok videos under #robinhoodstocks have millions of views. In some ways, Robinhood reflects how Silicon Valley mastered the art of manufacturing behavioral loops, encouraging an app user to log back in one more time or spend one more minute engaged.
    Same Bloomberg article, pick your source of choice:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-19/robinhood-s-role-in-the-gamification-of-investing-quicktake
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/robinhoods-role-in-the-gamification-of-investing/2020/12/19/83b310ca-41bf-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html
  • Emerald Small Cap Value Fund change in liquidation date
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421001868/fp0061770_497.htm
    497 1 fp0061770_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Emerald Small Cap Value Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 29, 2021
    to the Fund’s
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated August 31, 2020, as supplemented
    As previously disclosed, on December 8, 2020, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, a series of the Trust, determined to close and liquidate the Fund on or about January 11, 2021. The date for such liquidation is now expected to be on or about February 12, 2021 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE