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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Should You Buy A Fixed-Income Annuity For Retirement?
    While I agree that VAs are widely oversold, you'll notice that the second and third paragraphs above are comparing VA deferred annuities with fixed income immediate annuities. Not especially meaningful, but it makes for a great sound bite.
    Do you care what the average VA costs, any more you care what the average fund costs? Or do you care what your annuity or your fund costs? Vanguard offers a VA that costs 0.48% (average across the funds offered in the annuity). And unlike the "usual" VAs that charge "stiff penalties", low cost annuities like Vanguard's charge no penalties.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/annuity/variable
    Likewise, do you care what the average SPIA pays, or what you can get by shopping around? BlueprintIncome.com says that the best current payout rate on a $100K joint life annuity for a 60 year old couple (i.e. younger than the example in the article) is 5.586%. That's quite a bit more than the 4.38% average rate cited in the article. (Admittedly, I'm ignoring the quality of insurer, but then so is the article.)
    The article says that according to Vanguard's Monte Carlo Nest Egg Calculator, using the 4% rule with a retirement investment portfolio (with what asset mix, it doesn't say), you've got a 9% chance of having no money left over for heirs. That's a euphemistic way of saying that you have a 9% chance of running out of money while you still need it.
    The point of insurance is to protect against worst case events. What happens if the worst happens and you live longer than 30 years? :-) Your odds of being left destitute increase.
    The articles presents a particular perspective, and in doing so shades wording, frames numbers, and speaks in generalities that advance this perspective. That's not to say there isn't validity in the picture it draws. Just that it's drawing only part of the picture.
  • How To Get Bigger Bond Yields And Beat The Big Money: (I-Bonds)
    " Individuals are limited to purchasing $10,000 of I bonds each year"
    In addition, tax filers may also purchase $5K of paper I bonds, using their tax refunds to pay for them. That means that if you file jointly, you and your spouse are still limited to just $5K of bonds.
    https://www.irs.gov/refunds/using-your-income-tax-refund-to-save-by-buying-us-savings-bonds
    If you're not expecting a refund but still want to buy I-bonds this way, you can make an extra estimated tax payment to the IRS. The IRS doesn't care why you sent them too much money. All that matters is that you're getting a refund.
  • Subadvised Fund Firm Is Back On Top, Proportionately
    What does "pound for pound" mean? ISTM that family net inflows per family AUM would be a reasonable metric. But this article talks about a family's net inflows per fund. It gives EJ as top gatherer ($75M/fund), with runners up gathering $65M/fund.
    By that metric, Vanguard seems to have done much better. Morningstar reports that Vanguard pulled in $14.9B in July. M*'s premium fund screener reports that Vanguard has 128 distinct mutual funds. That comes out to $116M/fund. (Note Vanguard reports 134 funds excluding MMFs.)
    Even if we count Vanguard's 59 ETFs (number from Vanguard site) as separate funds (though they're generally just another share class of OEF funds already counted), that brings us to 187 funds, give or take. That's $80M/fund, still enough to top the per-fund figure given for EJ.
    I don't know if "pound for pound" Vanguard was the top fund family. All I'm saying is that is that Vanguard and possibly others did better than the obscure fund families mentioned in the MF Wire piece. (Okay, Jensen isn't obscure.)
    Morningstar Reports U.S. Mutual Fund and Exchange-Traded Fund Flows for July 2019 ("News provided by Morningstar, Inc.)
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/morningstar-reports-us-mutual-fund-and-exchange-traded-fund-flows-for-july-2019-300902024.html
    If you're really into this data (why?), th3 wire story above contains a link to a seven page M* Direct report. (You have to provide name, email, etc. to receive it, but it's free.)
  • These Recession-Proof Stocks Beat The Market No Matter What
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp-500-recession-proof-stocks-hold-up-good-times-bad/
    These Recession-Proof Stocks Beat The Market No Matter What
    FacebookTwitterLinkedIn
    MATT KRANTZ 8/16/2019
    Is a recession near? That's the question S&P 500 investors are asking themselves — especially after the yield curve inverted again. But why worry when you can profit from recession-proof stocks like TJX (TJX) and Walmart (WMT)?
  • Should You Buy A Fixed-Income Annuity For Retirement?
    FYI: Plenty of people shudder when they hear the word, “annuity.” Many financial advisors sell them as if they’re life preservers. But they’re usually filled with holes.
    Variable annuities, for example, are widely oversold. An advisor might croon, “These products guarantee that you won’t lose money. They’re also linked to the stock market. So when stocks rise, the value of the annuity rises too.” In 2005, columnist Scott Burns published, Seven Reasons To Avoid Variable Annuities. Today, his logic hasn’t lost its sting. Investors pay stratospheric charges, averaging 2.24 percent per year. That hurts investment returns. Variable annuities can also attract unnecessary taxes. And if investors withdraw early, they usually pay stiff exit penalties.
    Fixed-income annuities, however, look more attractive to retirees. Here’s how most of them work: You pay an insurance company a lump sum. In exchange, they provide a regular income stream for life. It’s much like buying a defined benefit pension. But in most cases, there’s no upward adjustment to cover inflation. *
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/should-you-buy-a-fixed-income-annuity-for-retirement
  • How To Get Bigger Bond Yields And Beat The Big Money: (I-Bonds)
    FYI: The investment world is caught in a vise between the collapse of long-term interest rates and the relentless (if understated) rise in the cost of living.
    Some $16 trillion of global bonds yield less than zero, and the downturn in yields seems to be only accelerating. While textbooks say that should pump up the value of other investments, the action of the past week says otherwise. The plunge in Treasury yields spooked the stock market on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into an 800-point swoon.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-get-bigger-bond-yields-and-beat-the-big-money-51565983394?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine
    Treasury Direct.Com
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
  • Subadvised Fund Firm Is Back On Top, Proportionately
    FYI: A broker-dealer's proprietary, subadvised fund family regained the lead last month, pound for pound.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.mfwire.com/common/artprint2007.asp?storyID=60105&wireid=2
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: David Snowball, Mutual Fund Observer
    FYI: (Slide mouse to 30:20 minutes for David Snowball interview.)
    Episode Info
    John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, said that while the market is stuck between a major support level of roughly 2,800 and resistance at 2,950 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it remains in a bullish trend, which he expects to resume after economic cross-currents like trade wars, the inverted yield curve and slowing global growth are worked out. Also on the show, Tadas Viskanta of AbnormalReturns.com discusses who, if anyone, is trustworthy these days in the world of online financial advice and commentary, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com chats about fund investing in an extended Market Call.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/63257939?autoplay=true
  • Low volatility funds
    I track a few of these funds on an ongoing basis. Among those I follow here are the one day returns from the big selloff yesterday -- 8/14/2019. I find VMVFX to be particularly interesting. If anyone else has any favorite low volatility funds, please share. thanks
    VMVFX -- -1.67%
    SPLV -- -1.98%
    USMV -- -2.20
    XMLV -- -1.88%
    SPHD -- -2.45%
  • John Dessauer Investments, Inc.
    market review and update as of Wednesday August 14, 2019
    I opened my computer last Wednesday and found this scary article: “The Dow Plunges 500
    https://johndessauerinvestments.com/weekly-hotline
  • Accusation: General Electric is "bigger fraud than Enron"
    We’ve ridden our GE stock down about 75% over the past couple years, so it’s such a small part of our portfolio now that it matters very little if it goes bust. It’s not worth selling at this point because I would have to hire an accountant to figure out our cost basis for tax returns. We’ve owned GE for 40 years and it’s our only individual stock, a gift from my wife’s grandfather. Fortunately we sold shares over the years for down payments on homes, so it’s paid off in the long term.
  • anyone bailin out yet?
    No, I don’t try to time the markets. My asset allocation is set to my time horizon and needs. Reduced my overall stock percentage from about 60% to 50% when I retired because we would be making periodic withdrawals, but no need to change now because we have enough assets in “safe” investments to last years without needing to sell any stocks.
  • Accusation: General Electric is "bigger fraud than Enron"
    Following is a current article from The Guardian. It is complete as published.
    The whistleblower who called out Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme has accused General Electric of wide-scale fraud in a move that has sent the conglomerate’s share price into a tailspin.
    In a report titled General Electric, a Bigger Fraud Than Enron, investigator Harry Markopolos claims GE is engaging in accounting fraud worth $38bn. He said GE is heading for bankruptcy and is hiding $29bn in long-term care losses.
    “GE’s $38bn in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE’s market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds,” he writes, referencing two of the largest corporate accounting scandals in history.
    After a year long investigation for an unidentified hedge fund, Markopolos writes he has discovered “an Enronesque business approach that has left GE on the verge of insolvency”. Enron, a Texas-based energy group, filed for bankruptcy in 2001, brought down by a massive accountancy scandal.
    This report is “going to make this company probably file for bankruptcy”, Markopolos told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. “WorldCom and Enron lasted about four months … We’ll see how GE does.”
    In a statement GE said it “stands behind its financials” and operates to the “highest level of integrity” in its financial reporting. “We remain focused on running our business every day and … will not be distracted by this type of meritless, misguided and self-serving speculation.”
    GE’s share price sank close to 15% after the report was released.
    General Electric is already under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US’s top financial watchdog, and the justice department over accounting irregularities related to its insurance and power divisions.
    Once the world’s most valuable company, GE has struggled in recent years. Former CEO and chairman John Flannery was abruptly removed last year after only a year on the job and replaced by former Lawrence Culp, former CEO of the Danaher conglomerate.
    On Thursday Culp dismissed Markopolos’s report. “GE will always take any allegation of financial misconduct seriously. But this is market manipulation – pure and simple,” he said.
    Markopolos is best known for his role as the whistleblower who warned the SEC about Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Madoff was jailed for 150-years in 2009 after pleading guilty to swindling investors out of $65bn in savings.
  • PIMCO income A expense ratio
    I went to a talk by the managers of MWTRX (20 years ago?) before MetWest was acquired by TCW. One of the audience questions was how they would compare themselves with PTTRX. They said that PIMCO funds (and PTTRX in particular) were so large that PIMCO had to manage their funds top down (macro calls), while at MetWest they focused on issue selection.
    (Since MetWest was acquired by TCW and their funds have grown so large, I suspect they also no longer have the ability to significantly benefit from astute issue selection.)
    This is not necessarily a bad thing; it's just a different approach. But like any high conviction approach, it is subject to periodic bad calls (in hindsight). It comes with the territory. One should understand this and not let rapid losses take one by surprise. (This is a reason why I prefer not to ignore "upside risk" - it can be indicative of future downside risk.)
    Over at Templeton, Hasenstab is known for managing this way. So it should not come as a surprise that he too got caught by the drop in the Argentina peso.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52009/hasenstab-loses-1-8bn-in-single-day-as-big-bet-blows-up-femgx-tpinx
    His Templeton funds are quite different from PIMCO's funds, so I'm not saying they're directly comparable. Still, I find Hasenstab's funds to be more transparent (notably with respect to currency exposure), making it easier to figure out what happened.
    Regarding ERs: PIMIX's actual ER last year was 1.05%. That's from the annual report, dated 3/31/2019. Interest expenses stated in a prospectus (which is what all the figures before this post are quoting) are forward looking guesses, usually based on last year's actual expenses. We won't know what PIMIX is actually spending on interest now until it completes a reporting period.
    To conclude with another knock on M*'s new format - M* used to give both ER figures (prospectus and annual report), but now doesn't seem to give the actual (annual report) figure. Giving both numbers had caused much confusion, but IMHO omitting data is not the right "solution".
  • anyone bailin out yet?
    Sold out of most mama's fidelity equities positions at openings . Will Add more Fbnd and fidelity2015 TDF
    The fund companies finally realized that one size does not fit all, so they've got multiple series of TDFs.
    Would your Fidelity 2015 fund be:
    FFVFX (Freedom® 2015), that "Seeks high total return until its target retirement date. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?
    Or FLIFX (Freedom® Index 2015), that "Seeks high total return until its target retirement date. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?
    Or FIRUX (Simplicity RMD 2015), that "seeks total return until its horizon date through a combination of current income and capital growth. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    @MikeW. I've been pretty much all-in with IOFIX, so nothing more to add really. (Hmmm ... unless I use margin.) As such, I watch it pretty closely ... and the folks at Garrison politely answer my inquires when the fund dips (eg., "Charles, the 5 penny move yesterday was just the dividend ... !"). My only other fund is ZEOIX, another steady-eddy. Gone are my days in funds like FAAFX, which I once called my "Great Pumpkin" fund. It's actually been having a decent year.
  • IOFIX Yesterday
    Thanks MikeW and Junkster. Steady as she goes. I do think very highly of Tom Miner, the fund's principal. He's supported well by rest of staff at Garrison Point. I see the AUM has grown to $3B. (So much for closing soon.) I hope to visit them again in November and update the profile. I will be attending Litman Gregory's update on Alt Master's fund at that time. Will reach out to folks at Zeo as well. All three SF based. My bad has been a long delayed profile on Alambic ... an interesting small family of funds. Just been consumed with the Premium site, which I must say has never been better, especially now that we've transitioned to a new user portal and the WordPress framework ... and, I've become less of a hack in php, javascript, jQuery, ajax, json, html, etc. Just added some additional data to MultiSearch results table recommended by Sam Lee. Working now on risk and return at the rolled-up portfolio level ... that too long delayed. Also hope to create a "tight channel" screening criteria inspired by Junkster. At some point, will get back to profiling. (I can hear David sighing now.) Actually, I've struggled a bit with the role of reporting on funds (or strategies). Some strategies just require a long time to be validated, including the stock market itself. So, while we report on "good" funds and show 1, 3, 5 year performance ... that may simply not be enough time to judge, which I know is counter to Fund Alarm. (Oops, I can see David shaking his head!) Some rambling from Orcas this good August morning. c
  • M*: The End Of Favorable Tax Treatment For Inherited IRAs?
    M*'s write, IMHO; is full of fluff and touchy/feely words.
    While RMD requirements would change (for the good), basically; the tax revenue raised by reducing the stretch period will subsidize the other programs.
    So, taking from much of the middle class, NO; I'll change that to "working class" who have tried their best to save for retirement, and if the spouse(s) pass before using all of their tax sheltered account monies..............well, the children or whomever will get the tax whack. I'm not writing about the ultra wealthy, but the regular folks.
    I questioned (shortly after the passing of the house version) our U.S. rep. about the nature of this transfer of wealth for the working class; but have not had a reply yet, and they are still on break.
    Better overview of SECURE ACT.
  • Vanguard Funds Appear To Lose Half Their Value As Company Blames Pricing Glitch
    FYI: Some of Vanguard’s funds appeared to lose as much as half their value on Monday—but the company says those losses were just pricing glitches that were quickly rectified.
    The $56 billion Vanguard Wellesley Income fund (ticker: VWINX), which invests in large cap value stocks and investment-grade bonds, appeared to lose 56%, according to Vanguard’s website.
    The $105 billion Vanguard Wellington fund (VWELX), which Vanguard says is its oldest mutual fund and the nation’s oldest balanced fund, appeared to lose 32%, the company’s website showed.
    The $17 billion Vanguard Target Retirement Income fund (VTINX)—a product designed for people already in retirement—appeared to lose 45.6%, according to its website.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-pricing-glitch-causes-funds-to-appear-to-lose-half-their-value-51565663400?refsec=funds