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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ark-etf's Too Popular !?
    If people are asking, it probably is. That doesn't mean they won't stop paying 208 times earnings for its largest holding Tesla, which is 10% of its portfolio.
    Ransom Stoddard: You’re not going to use the story, Mr. Scott?
    Maxwell Scott: No, sir. This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.
  • Small Caps
    @stillers and Fido is offering many of them no load or fee... and I am gobbling them up. :-) I'm in 3 now... but not for short term... long term.
    JG: I've been seeing your posts here and elsewhere. I think you're making a lot of great LT moves. That said, markets are likely gonna get rocky here sometime in Q1 but for LT investors, that only provides better opportunities. RE: MS funds, I'm at 3 myself, with MACGX, MSSMX and MIGPX on board. MSEGX may be coming on board sometime soon. Without question, the most underappreciated and under-discussed family of funds on the planet.
  • Small Caps
    Looking at MSSMX Eye watering YTD + 136.75% 1 year + 127.18% it holds overstock.com ++607.77% 1 year.. .too late ? The Wasatch small caps look greta also - alas... closed . It looks like best open option is ARTSX
    Yeah, you could have said something similar to that on 12/31/20:
    "WOW! MSSMX is UP 150% in 2020. I can't buy that now. I'm too late."
    Or, you could have bought it on 12/31/20 and be UP 16.5% YTD heading into today. Or have bought ARTSX on 12/31/20 and be UP 5.4% YTD.
    ARTSX is a great SCG fund and made my above-posted original scoping list. But MSSMX was my SCG choice because it has consistently outperformed virtually every other SCG fund over all time periods. And I see no reason to expect anything different than that going forward.
    Granted, MSSMX's SD is notably higher than most other SCG funds. BUT...as one legendary forum poster always used to say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
    YMMV, and I think it does. I think you posted elsewhere that you are risk adverse and I replied that feast/famine EMs are therefore NOT the place for you to be. I would echo that same comment on SCG. SCV and FCPVX might be a better option for you in SCs.
    EDIT: WMICX is OPEN/NTF at Fido.
  • EM ESG Options
    Thanks for sharing this @BenWP. I wasn't aware of this fund. Another one you might want to take a look at is Matthews Asia ESG. It has performed quite well over the past 1 and 3 years and has a nice balanced portfolio across sectors. A bit more value oriented than most other Asian funds.
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    @Observant1 et al
    Relative to the thematics of the day.....
    Through year end of 1987, Fidelity had 35 select/sector mutual funds; with several of these beginning life in 1981. Eight of the 35 were added in 1985, and another 12 were added in 1986.
    As I noted previous in another thread, IMHO, thematic investing is not new for availability to the retail investor; but it has evolved. The sector funds became thematic etf's.
    The Fido select funds started as and are mutual funds usually holding a large number of companies within. Etf's may also have a large number of holdings, but some are very focused, with 30 or so holdings.
    Info only Sidenote: Fidelity unveiled same-day trading of its 31 Select/Sector Portfolio funds, which enabled investors to get quotes on an hourly basis and redeem or purchase shares between 10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. rather than waiting until after 4:00 p.m. to get a fund's closing net asset value. Later eliminated.
    Amateur opinion: Yes, some of the numerous thematic, factor and flame thrower etf's that have come to market during the past several years will have problems and cause portfolio damage at some point. The best one can do with these investments is to fully understand the areas of investments and why you feel there is a positive path forward in a given sector for investment. Yes, there are some "dot.com" types out there that are not proven and without profit.
    We've held two very narrow focused etf's; one which is no longer held, ZROZ, and the other still remains, BOTZ.
    The 36 holdings within ZROZ, Pimco long term treasury(s) are rock solid holdings, but the etf can be as volatile as a narrow focused equity etf. Obviously, the etf performance is subject to long term interest rate fluctuations and what the bond players in this area perceive. BOTZ has about 39 holdings in the robotics area. We still have faith in this market area and the companies within the fund.
    The fickle markets, trends and whatever else can and may have various unknown impacts in all of these areas.
    We retail investors are an interesting group of thinkers, eh?
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Small Caps
    Looking at MSSMX Eye watering YTD + 136.75% 1 year + 127.18% it holds overstock.com ++607.77% 1 year.. .too late ? The Wasatch small caps look greta also - alas... closed . It looks like best open option is ARTSX
  • T Rowe Price
    I received that meesage too. This explained the challenge that @bee had earlier. COVID made everything much more difficult. DMV offices are slowly opening back up. Renewal was strictly done online with 10 years old photo.
  • Small Caps
    You Can Do Better Than the Russell 2000
    Link
  • Small Caps
    @observant1 - please elaborate "I would avoid funds which track the Russell 2000 index due to this index's inferior design"
    "
  • Stock and Bond Return Forecasts
    While the "expert" forecasts are interesting to note, I wouldn't implement any major portfolio changes based on this information. True to form, GMO is pessimistic once again.
    The firm's predictions will be correct one of these days!
    Link
  • Animal Spirits: Micro Bubbles
    Podcast worth sharing.
    image
    Article & Podcast linked here:
    animal-spirits-micro-bubbles
  • When Secular Trends Reverse…and Economic Time Bombs
    What worked yesterday may not work going forward, until it does again, We invest in cycles and cycles trend up and down.
    The most significant investing trends over the last 10 years can be summarized as follows…
    1. Large Caps over Small Caps.
    2. US over International.
    3. Growth over Value.
    4. Tech over Everything.
    5. Long Duration over Short Duration (Yields Falling, Curve Flattening).
    6. Stocks over Commodities.
    7. When Covid-19 first hit the US last February and March, all of these pre-existing trends accelerated.
    when-secular-trends-reverse/
  • EM ESG Options
    A good background article, despite its date in 2018, can be found in this link to a NY Times article:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/business/finding-emerging-markets-stocks-with-social-consciences.html
    The Times article reviews many ESG strategies, including MFs, so I won’t repeat what is said there.
    Inspired by a recent M* finding that ESG MFs and ETFs have been outperforming the indices against which they are measured, I took a closer look at a recommended ETF for broad EM coverage, namely IEMG, as well as two ETFs that have portfolios based on ESG principles. Nuveen (now owned by TIAA, which has offered a Social Choice balanced fund for many years) offers NUEM, an EM ESG fund using its proprietary index. Two other choices in this area are XTrackers EMSG and a 2020 addition to the mix, iShares LDEM. Both of the latter funds eliminate some companies based on the business (tobacco, alcohol, gambling, etc.) and then they apply ESG screens to the remaining MSCI EM stocks to eliminate bad governance, pollution, corruption, and so forth.
    NUEM and EMSG have long enough track records to make comparisons possible. Since the lows of world markets in March, 2020, all EM funds have shot up. However, as predicted by the theorists and researchers, companies with higher ESG scores, including in this case EM companies, did outperform an index of unscreened firms. I lean towards NUEM because I know TIAA’s record in ESG investing. They may have a “secret sauce,” and were I looking to expand my EM allocation, this is where the money would go. If the theory is correct, long-term results should achieve similar outperformance.
  • Own PRIDX? Morningstar contradiction... again. And AGAIN
    I noticed this glitch in M* Portfolio Manager last week.
    The current price and percent change values for VINIX have not been updated since 01-13-21.
    These discrepencies (there have been other ones) erode my trust in M*.
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    Robinhood Army
    The above link is the only one I kept for review. But, Motley Fool or Seeking Alpha from my recall had a decent write a few weeks ago about the dollar impact of RobinHood and related. I have to leave for an appointment, but this would be easy to search.
    Having knowledge of (young ones we know well) the expansive use of social media platforms that foster some of this investment area is of benefit. We've kept up with the social platforms from our involvement in local community/school projects. If one searches or discovers a Twitter or Redditt feed, one is able to read and expand a post without having to login....no account needed; except if you want to post a comment.
    Here is the current Redditt feed for stocks (investing and trading for all).
    The problem for me becomes not enough time in the day. But, one may gain some insight into some of what is pushing some investment areas. An occasional peek may be worth a bit of your time.
    Search away......as your time allows.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    Here's some insight on the topic, albeit a bit dated from 08/2020.
    https://www.investors.com/news/robinhood-investors-charging-into-stock-investing-what-could-go-wrong/
    And some 2020 stats that another more learned poster may add some color to:
    https://www.businessofapps.com/data/robinhood-statistics/
    Excerpt;
    Robinhood Total Transactions
    2015 $500 million
    2017 $50 billion
    2018 $100 billion
    2019 $150 billion