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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Defensive fund options
    Looking at CVSIX (Calamos Market Neutral), the last negative calendar year it had was 2008. The downside is that its 10 year annual return is just over 4%. Maybe a nice Bond fund substitute? It does its job quietly.
    Correction of sorts. My summary of CVSIX earlier was intended to reference a question (above) from JD. However, it certainly would fit in as a “defensive” fund. I use it more as a bond replacement.
    Defensive funds is tough. Under some conditions one type works. But under different conditions another works better. I have 30% allocated to “alternatives.” It’s a group of “the usual suspects”. Can elaborate later if anyone wants to know more.
    One I don’t own, HSGFX, gained 2% today - bucking the nasty selloff. Fine. But you’d be a lot poorer had you held the fund over the past decade. So it goes …
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    @hank - In an interview of sorts posted a month or two ago on the board her religious beliefs (strong Catholic) were drawn into the conversation as to how the guide her life and he investing business.
    Here's one: God, Money
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I’m not sure how Christianity entered the picture here? Maybe Wood’s religion?
    I can’t see much difference between stopping at a convenience store in Michigan on the way home from work and picking up a 6-pack of beer along with a half-dozen state lottery tickets and than watching the state sponsored “live drawing” on TV that evening, and wagering $5 or $10 online on a sports event you’re viewing at home.
    There are a lot of vices in this world. Gambling is one. And more so when it involves amateur athletes. I agree. But, as think @Mark suggested, you can visit any live casino and bet on a college game just as you would at home. I don’t think @LewisBraham has been in many casinos. I haven’t either. But the few I have been in are highly addictive in atmosphere. The sounds, the flashing lights, the skimpily clad waitresses. All of this is compelling to the addictive personality who tends to stay too long at the bar and run up an excessive betting tab. I avoid live casinos like the plague.
    The online casinos are taxed heavily. I don’t think 100% of it goes to education; but a lot of it does. In fact, it’s the heavy state taxes on profits (50% in NY) that is making it difficult for the online casinos to stay viable. Be careful what you wish for, because that revenue is critical to the government and would need to be made up from other sources.
    Come to think of it … Any one of us can log-in to Fido or Schwab or VG any time, day or night, and place a “bet” on any number of highly speculative stocks, currencies or ARKK-like funds. But, we don’t call it “gambling”. It’s “investing.” :) Yes, the motive and purpose may be more noble - but the addictive nature and potential for great harm are very similar. If you doubt my analogy here, consider the very words that graced the home page of “Fund Alarm“ for many years. It was a line from the Kenny Rogers song: “The Gambler” .
  • Defensive fund options
    You are correct, I inadvertently read off YTD rather than 2021 numbers in some cases. Thanks for spotting my errors!
    SNGVX really did lose almost a full percent, but you have the correct figure for BBBMX.
    GILPX did eek out a 0.02% gain (still effectively zero) rather than lose 0.07%.
    But MERFX did really lose 0.19% (still virtually zero), VNLA did really lose 0.18% (again, virtually zero).
    BSV did worse than I reported, losing over 1% in 2021.
    T-notes (maturities of 2-10 years) saw yields go up by 0.6% to 0.9%:
    2 year rose from 0.11% to 0.73%,
    3 year rose from 0.16% to 0.97%,
    5 year rose from 0.36% to 1.26%,
    7 year rose from 0.64% to 1.44%,
    10 yr rose from 0.93% to 1.52%
    Though yields on T-bills rose only slightly, with the shortest maturity bills even having yields fall:
    1 mo dropped from 0.09% to 0.06%
    2 mo dropped from 0.09% to 0.05%
    3 mo dropped from 0.09% to 0.06%
    6 mo rose from 0.09% to 0.19%
    12 mo rose from 0.10% to 0.39%
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2021
    Since interest rates did not move in tandem, how a portfolio was affected depended on its distribution of bonds. Two portfolios with the same average duration could have all bonds of the same, relatively short duration (thus not much affected by rising rates), or a mix of very short term and somewhat longer duration bonds (with the latter losing more value).
  • Defensive fund options
    I would probably opt for STIP for short-term TIP exposure, lower fees 0.05% versus 0.15% and shorter maturity bonds--0-5 years--so less sensitive to rising rates. VTIP also has lower fees. But TIPS in general look pricey right now.
  • Defensive fund options
    @wxman123 -- Bank MM funds yield around 0.4 to 0.5%. FDIC insured so 100% risk free. Are you expecting your near cash holdings to provide a higher return?
  • Defensive fund options
    But since I use MERFX as a cash substitute, 2%-3% per year is fine with me

    The problem is for me a cash substitute fund cannot have sustained a loss greater than 2% in a year, and preferably no loss ever. Why take the risk with such meager returns? My cash subs include, SNGVX (1 off year in 31, so it gets a pass on my 2% rule); BBBMX; GILPX, VNLA (ETF) and even good old BSV (ETF). You can buy with confidence that any loss will be small and temporary. Not so clear with MERFX, which suffered a 5.67% loss in 2002 and 2.26% loss in 2008.

    Not picking on anyone here, just remembering the statement that SNGVX had only one losing year out of 31. It's now 2 losing years out of 34, with nearly a 1% loss last year. Not much, but something one hopes not to see with a fund used in lieu of cash.
    FWIW, BBBMX stayed in the green, gaining 0.01%.
    GILPX did not, losing 0.07%. Likewise, MERFX lost 0.19%, VNLA lost 0.18% and BSV lost 0.12%.
    These five funds, win or lose, came so close to zero that one might as well think of them all as having broken even. SNGVX was a different story.
    Meanwhile, RPHYX kept chugging away, gaining 1.8% last year. Only 11 calendar years so far, but not a single loss.
    I'm also taking a closer look at VMLTX. Only 1 losing year out of 34; that was just a loss of 0.16% in 2016. It normally maintains a higher than average duration to get higher returns. But it has shortened its duration to bring it in line with its peers, showing that it can be managed conservatively if conditions warrant.
    My parents used this fund in retirement. Yes,
    It was a tough year in this space, but your numbers seem off based on my personal data and MS. BSV was down 1.09 but BBBMX was up 1.18%. For the year as a whole in 2021, my "near cash" holdings were down .04%. Not great but I can live with it. Wish there were better options but I've yet to find one's I'm comfortable with. Hard to argue about RPHYX, which I hold, but would be reluctant to put big dollars into (or most of these vehicles). While things like SNGVX had a bad year I'm OK with that (based on rising rates) rather then risking a serious loss on defaults as is a bit more likely with most of the others. It happened with ZEOIX, which recovered, but stung when it happened.
  • Defensive fund options
    I compiled all the funds listed on this thread(except two, see my prior comment) into a watch list so that I could run some metrics.
    (1)Total of 42 Funds ranging in age from 1.9 to 39 years. Youngest is BLNDX and oldest is PRPFX
    (2)Top 2 lowest Max DD(life) are RPHIX(1.1%) and BSV(1.4%). Top 2 APR(life) are BLNDX(19.7%) and SWAN(14.4%)
    (3)Zooming out to 25 years(this period covers the dot com and great recession crashes), Top 2 APR's are PRBLX(11.7 with a Max DD of 35.6) and TRPBX(8 with a Max DD of 38.4)
    (4)Zooming out to 15 years(this period covers the great recession crash), Top APR's are PRBLX(12.4 with a Max DD of 35.6) and TRPBX(7.6 with DD of 38.4)
    (5)Zooming into the period of the Super Bull 2(as defined by MFO Screener to be the period 200903 to 202112) the Top APR's are QQQX(17.4) and PRBLX(17.3)
    (6)Over a 15 year period, the highest 3 Yr Rolling Avg APR is PRBLX(12.3)
    PRBLX has a strong showing in the 3 periods(albeit arbitrary) I looked at. I plan to dive deeper into this one.
  • Defensive fund options
    I have owned VTMFX for several years and think it is a "file away and forget it" fund, although I am not sure it is really "defensive"
    1) it is 50% equities and 14% FAANG and their sibs. A day like today with the Nasdaq down 3% will hit this fund harder than a more broadly based 50% fund.
    2) Their 50% bonds are largely Munis, so will likely be less sensitive to interest rates etc. The duration is over 4 so with a rapid rise in interest rates, especially if due to increasing inflation that tanks the stock market, their bond portfolio may not be much help
  • Target Date future plans
    I didn't quote anything/anybody. But I think that is the general policy of through-TDFs (Fido, Vanguard, some Price, etc), but not for to-TDFs*.
    Price is trying different ideas - it has 2 TDF series (older riskier, newer more conservative). In older series, it has made the income funds distinct, even sort of unlinked it from the TDF. I suppose, it may keep old names like TDF 2010, etc for a long time.
    *To-TDFs become most conservative at the target retirement date and don't change any further.
  • Defensive fund options
    @msf said,
    A similar fund (the only similar fund I'm aware of) is VTMFX. Cheaper and has outperformed in almost all calendar years. But, one needs a Vanguard account to invest in it.
    USBLX would be similar to VTMFX...long term VTMFX has out performed USBLX
    Could the .5% extra ER on USBLX (ER is .59%) be the main reason for VTMFX out performance?
    VTMFX ER is razor thin at .09%
    .5% on 10,000 year 1 = $50. From 1995 to 2000 both funds doubled (so USBLX paid out 50+60+70+80+90+100...etc each year more than VTMFX). A better way of putting it is VTMFX "reinvested that extra .5% ER" by not distributing it to management. 26 years later this becomes 10's of thousands of dollars ($85K vs $65K).
    Is there a calculator for this @msf?
    image
  • Defensive fund options
    +1 stay calm UDF website bullet-point dated 10/25/21 mentions the allegation that James Dondero siphoned millions from his former company Highland Capital Management. Certainly increases my confidence in HMEZX! Snarky comment well-deserved !
  • Defensive fund options
    Glad to see more ideas posted. For 2022 I added REMIX to my portfolio, also added a conservative allocation fund TAIFX to taxable (really like its holdings, muni’s along with strong underlying equity funds). Last fall I reduced my growth global funds a bit, wish I sold more at highs. I tend to make smallish, incremental moves. My defensive holdings now are: SWAN, CTFAX, TMSRX, REMIX, GIBLX, JMST. Shifted some equity fund $$$ to allocation funds to reduce overall volatility: JABAX, TAIFX. Overall AA is less than 50% stocks. Watching GIBLX due to its rate sensitivity, I may swap it for another alt…BAMBX is on my watchlist, along with ARBIX.
    My global growth funds are really swooning. They are high conviction funds I’ve held for a long time, BGAFX and MIOPX. If this continues, I may add to rebalance. SCHD is my best performer.
    On MFOPremium, my total portfolio reads as 15.5 APR, -8.5 max drawdown, 10.4 sd, 1.48 sharpe, and 2.1 ulcer index. My goal for this year was to shoot for a 10sd. We’ll see.
    Thanks again to all who’ve posted, special thanks to Lynn Bolin for his ongoing study and sharing on portfolio construction and risk awareness.
    Rick
  • Defensive fund options
    This is a great thread, appreciate everyone's views. Personally I use rolling 36 month stats to gauge a fund because I do not believe a 12 month eval period(even one over many years) is indicative. Bill Miller outperformed S&P each year for 15 or so years I believe in the late 90's and early aughts and I recall he stated something to the effect of the streak being a quirk of the calendar.
    For defensive alts I like ARBIX, SFHYX and SVARX. I have positions in the first two.
  • Defensive fund options
    AVEFX is available NTF at Merrill Edge and at Firstrade (which sells all funds w/o TFs).
    At Ave Maria Funds, "Investments are made only in companies that do not violate core teachings of the Catholic Church as set by our distinguished Catholic Advisory Board."
    https://avemariafunds.com/eB/ammf-f2020-WT.html
    These core teachings do not preclude AVEFX from investing in stocks and bonds of Lockheed Martin, the world's largest arms supplier (according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute).
    Perhaps that falls under the just war doctrine. OTOH,
    Pope Francis Says Arms Manufacturers Can't Call Themselves Christian

    Pope Francis continued his week of politically charged comments on Sunday [June 21, 2015], saying arms manufacturers who call themselves Christians are hypocrites. ...
    His criticism was not limited to the manufacturers, however; Francis also called out investors, saying “duplicity is the currency of today…they say one thing and do another.”
    https://time.com/3930178/pope-francis-weapons-manufacturers-christian/
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    ARKK was off about 3% just before 1:00 PM. Down over 5% YTD. A friend of mine at work years ago used to say, “Off to a roaring halt!” Don’t think he coined that one, but certainly describes the action for ARKK early in the year.
    Part of that cargo, DKNG, is currently flirting with $25, having been around $75 earlier in the year. Suspect it will close below $25. If I were Wood I’d consider tossing that one overboard.
  • Interview With David Rosenberg: “To Bet on Inflation is to Bet Against Human Ingenuity”

    Below chart is for FRESX, VNG (Vanguard real estate eft), FREL (Fido real estate etf) and FRIFX
    CHART Chart limited to start of Feb. 2015 due to an inception date for FREL. At the left bottom edge of the chart, one may select the "red and green" icon to display a bar chart for the returns period.
    Thanks for the hint about the icon. I have been using these charts since losing the ability to save comparative charts using M*. But I hadn't thought to switch to the bar chart view to compare the cumulative returns for the selected time periods.
  • Interview With David Rosenberg: “To Bet on Inflation is to Bet Against Human Ingenuity”
    I read David Rosenberg for a few years after the market melt of 2008 and agree with @yogibearbull, that Mr. Rosenberg, much of the time seemed to be on the edge of "don't invest in equity right now". Perhaps his investments were heavily damaged in 2008 and that he remained "twitchy".
    FRIFX is a unique fund in the real estate area, maintaining somewhat of a balance between equity and bonds. Many of the bonds ARE NOT investment grade. I did invest in this area after 2008 for a few years.
    Surprisingly, in the chart below; FRIFX did well during the chart period, relative to the more heavily positioned in equity of the other funds in the comparison.
    Being curious about the investments mentioned in this thread:
    Below chart is for FRESX, VNG (Vanguard real estate eft), FREL (Fido real estate etf) and FRIFX
    CHART Chart limited to start of Feb. 2015 due to an inception date for FREL. At the left bottom edge of the chart, one may select the "red and green" icon to display a bar chart for the returns period.