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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    Hank, to address your question below, here is my perspective: The return of bond funds since the mid-Dec 2018 lows are primarily price-appreciation. Go take a look at the charts of quality bond funds/ETFs. Its like a rocket, and approaching (or at) long-term resistance levels. I don't find it probable that appreciation like we have seen can be extrapolated much further. At least not without some type of correction.
    OTOH, as I scan current SEC yields of various quality bond ETFs today, I note AGG's yield is 2.47%, while ICSH's yield (an ultra-low duration bond ETF) is 2.62%. Meanwhile, AGG's duration is 6.0, while ICSH is 0.3.
    Based on bond prices here and now (not from 8-9 months ago), cash & near-cash instruments look like a better risk/reward proposition at this time. Obviously, if Treasury yields head to 0%, I will be kicking myself.
    Is there a link here?

    I’m curious what the reasons for the surge in money market funds might be
    . The return seems paltry. Over past year, money market mutual funds returned an average 1.97%. VG’s did slightly better at 2.35%. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/VMMXX (Need to click on “Price & Performance”.)
    Geez - Give me anything but one of these .... A night in Vegas? Online poker? Clean the attic and sell some antiques?
    A couple alternatives to money market funds for folks with at least a few years time horizon and able to live with some principal fluctuation: TRBUX- one year 3.51%, DODIX - one year 8.17%
  • Fidelity Draws Adviser Wrath With 1.9% Cash Offer
    I am a very conservative investor, so cash-management is probably more important to me than it is to many other investors who believe they should "keep their money working" (i.e. fully/near-fully invested). I also happen to use Fidelity.
    Frankly, I could not be happier with the liquidity options provided by Fidelity. My "core fund" of choice is SPAXX -- A Trsy MMF. Its 7-day yield (at 8/7/19) is 1.86%. Prior to the recent, severe downdraft in rates, I leaned heavily on laddered T-bills to boost my cash yields, going out as far as 6 months. Buys/sells of T-bills are NTF at Fidelity. For those who prefer CDs, Fidelity offers a "supermarket" of those.
    Since the rate downdraft, I've shifted excess cash reserves to 2 ultra low-duration NTF ETFs, ICSH & FLDR. they are both yielding ~ 2.5%.
    I see an ample number of attractive liquidity options (given the reality of the rate structure) at Fidelity. Methinks some advisers doth protest too much.
  • Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.
    From OJ's WSJ excerpt(s): "The problem is particularly acute in the fast-growing market for “structured” debt—securities using pools of loans such as commercial and residential mortgages, student loans and other borrowings."
    CLOs etc. seem to be the main target of the article, but there's also a brief mention of corp (and gov't) debt. I've been wondering about corp issues ever since learning of the recent, huge slugs of corp debt that's been given BBB ratings, now amounting to ~ 50% of that market. How much of it was rated on the rosy side and is in reality just plain corporate junk?
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    @ Hank: Thanks ! As a matter of fact I moved money out of MVRXX and bought additional CD's Over the next nintey days, I'll make about .25% more. Its not much, but I'd rather have the money in my pocket than the brokers.
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    Is there a link here?
    I’m curious what the reasons for the surge in money market funds might be. The return seems paltry. Over past year, money market mutual funds returned an average 1.97%. VG’s did slightly better at 2.35%. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/VMMXX (Need to click on “Price & Performance”.)
    Geez - Give me anything but one of these .... A night in Vegas? Online poker? Clean the attic and sell some antiques?
    A couple alternatives to money market funds for folks with at least a few years time horizon and able to live with some principal fluctuation: TRBUX- one year 3.51%, DODIX - one year 8.17%
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    FYI: “For money you wouldn’t need for more than 10 years, which ONE of the following do you think would be the best way to invest it—stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold/metals, or bitcoin/cryptocurrency?”
    That question was recently asked of more than a thousand investors in a recent Bankrate survey, and the winner—by a large margin—was real estate. For every two respondents who answered stocks there were more than three who said real estate is the way to go.
    Are these investors onto something? Have financial planners been wrong all these years? For this column I mine the historical data for answers.
    On the face of it, the respondents to the survey need to go back to their history books, as pointed out in a recent column by my colleague Catey Hill. Since 1890, U.S. real estate has produced an annualized return above inflation of just 0.4%, as judged by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the consumer-price index. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.53% (or its predecessor indexes) did far better, outpacing inflation at a 6.3% annualized rate (when including dividends).
    Even long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds outperformed real estate, producing an annualized inflation-adjusted total return of 2.7%. Check out the chart below:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-single-best-investment-for-the-next-decade-2019-08-08/print
  • Fidelity Dogged Again By 401(k) Quid-Pro-Quo Allegations
    FYI: Fidelity Investments has again been accused of engaging in a quid-pro-quo type relationship with a 401(k) plan sponsor, which allegedly cost employee retirement savers millions of dollars in return for bigger profits.
    The latest episode involves the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which has been accused of retaining Fidelity's 401(k) record-keeping services and investment funds, despite counsel to do otherwise from attorneys and consultants, with the expectation that Fidelity and co-owner Abigail Johnson would make a large donation to the university.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=V_FLXdqSAs3VtAbs_qCQAw&q=Fidelity+Dogged+Again+By+401(k)+Quid-Pro-Quo+Allegations&oq=Fidelity+Dogged+Again+By+401(k)+Quid-Pro-Quo+Allegations&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3348.3348..4459...0.0..0.375.531.0j1j0j1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0.X31mYZ_KEgo&ved=0ahUKEwiamrnagPPjAhXNKs0KHWw_CDIQ4dUDCAc&uact=5
  • Widely Followed Risk-Return Measures For Stock Portfolios Debunked: Sharpe Ratio/Sortino Ratio
    I think all modern port stats fall into the "past performance is not predictive" category, as in, why would we even think they would or could be predictive? It's about probabilities, not prediction, and even in that realm their utility depends on market, manager, and portfolio factors being at least fairly consistent in the future with what they've been over whatever past period (3y, 5y, etc.) we're looking at.
    Their utility is also limited to comparing funds with similar characteristics, e.g., within similar categories. Accept the limitations, and they can be plenty useful.
  • Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.
    Following are selected excerpts from a current lengthy and very detailed Wall Street Journal article. They have been significantly edited in the interest of brevity: a read of the entire WSJ article is suggested.
    Inflated bond ratings were one cause of the financial crisis. A decade later, there is evidence they persist. In the hottest parts of the booming bond market, S&P and its competitors are giving increasingly optimistic ratings as they fight for market share.
    All six main ratings firms have since 2012 changed some criteria for judging the riskiness of bonds in ways that were followed by jumps in market share, at least temporarily, a Wall Street Journal examination found. These firms compete with one another to rate the debt of borrowers, who pay for the ratings and have an incentive to pick rosier ones.
    There are signs some investors are skeptical. Some bonds in markets where ratings criteria have been eased don’t trade at the high bond prices their ratings suggest they should. Investors have also shown skepticism about ratings on some corporate and government bonds.
    “We don’t trust the ratings,” says Greg Michaud, director of real estate at Voya Investment Management, which holds $21 billion in commercial-real-estate debt.
    The problem is particularly acute in the fast-growing market for “structured” debt—securities using pools of loans such as commercial and residential mortgages, student loans and other borrowings. The deals are carved into different slices, or “tranches,” each with varying risks and returns, which means rating firms are crucial to their creation.
    The Journal analyzed about 30,000 ratings within a $3 trillion database of structured securities issued between 2008 and 2019. The Journal’s analysis suggests a key regulatory remedy to improve rating quality—promoting competition—has backfired. DBRS, Kroll and Morningstar were more likely to give higher grades than Moody’s, S&P and Fitch on the same bonds. Sometimes one firm called a security junk and another gave a triple-A rating deeming it supersafe.
    Two fast-growing structured-bond sectors are commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, and collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs. CMBS fund deals for hotels, shopping malls and the like. CLOs are backed by corporate loans to risky borrowers, typically to fund buyouts.
    In a May speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell compared CLOs to precrisis mortgage-backed debt: “Once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards.”
    Behind the ratings inflation is a long-acknowledged flaw Washington didn’t fix: Entities that issue bonds—state and local governments, hotel and mall financiers, companies—also pay for their ratings. Issuers have incentive to hire the most lenient rating firm, because interest payments are lower on higher-rated bonds. Increased competition lets issuers more easily shop around for the best outcome.
    Rating analysts say their firms have lost deals because they wouldn’t provide the desired ratings.
    In the first half of 2015, S&P’s share of ratings in the $600 billion CLO market hit a five-year low. That fall S&P changed its methodology to make it easier for CLOs to get higher ratings. When S&P again proposed loosening its criteria this year, a group representing more than 100 professional bond investors wrote a letter to the company, reviewed by the Journal, saying the changes “will lead to a weakening of credit protection for investors at a time where we need it most.” S&P proceeded.
    Moody’s ratings on riskier slices of these multi-borrower deals often weren’t as favorable as those of its competitors. By 2015, issuers “essentially stopped soliciting our ratings” on those slices, according to a January commentary from the company. In October 2015, Moody’s eased its rating methodology for single-asset CMBS deals.
    In 2016 Fitch [gave] itself wider latitude to use easier rating assumptions.
    Investors say ratings inflation is most evident in commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, of which investors hold about $1.2 trillion. When rating a security higher than their three big competitors, Morningstar, Kroll and DBRS were around two rungs more generous, on average. Some ratings were a dozen or more rungs higher, potentially the difference between junk bonds and triple-A.
    A group of professional investors in 2015 complained about inflated ratings to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Adam Hayden, who manages a $13 billion securities portfolio at New York Life Insurance Co.’s real-estate-investment arm, was among the investors who met with the SEC. He said inflated ratings were a risk to market stability, according to a meeting memo obtained by the Journal.
    The SEC didn’t implement their recommendations.

    Note: All bold emphasis was added.
  • Widely Followed Risk-Return Measures For Stock Portfolios Debunked: Sharpe Ratio/Sortino Ratio
    FYI: Two financial ratios Wall Street uses to rate different portfolios’ risk-adjusted performances have come under sharp criticism, including from one of the ratio’s own inventors.
    The better-known of the two, the Sharpe ratio, was first published in 1964 by William (Bill) Sharpe. It ranks portfolios by their “excess” return above holding low-yielding but safe Treasury bills. The ratio is adjusted for the amount a portfolio’s value deviates from a constant growth rate. In 1990, along with other economists, Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics for this and additional formulas.
    A competing measure, the Sortino ratio, was announced in 1980. Developed by Frank Sortino, then a finance professor at San Francisco State University, it was considered an improvement for several reasons.
    Most notably, the Sortino ratio only counts a portfolio’s downside deviation against it. A portfolio is not penalized for upside surprises, which the Sharpe ratio does.
    In a rather shocking turn of events, Sortino has turned against both the Sharpe ratio and the formula that bears his own name. He’s developed an entirely new risk-adjusted ranking system that shows promise.
    In his latest book, “The Sortino Framework for Constructing Portfolios” (Elsevier), the now-retired professor announced an improved ratio named Desired Target Rate-alpha (DTR-a).
    Sortino and his book’s collaborators ranked the risk-adjusted returns of scores of mutual funds using all three ratios. The results are eye-opening.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/widely-followed-risk-return-measure-for-stock-portfolios-is-debunked-after-55-years-2019-08-07/print
  • Limbo ! Limbo! On CD Rates
    Hi sir @_Ted, my colleague at work pickup CDs few months ago ~> 2.7%, is this yield real?
    will buy ford bond YTM > 6% cusip 345370BS8 price 119
  • Limbo ! Limbo! On CD Rates
    FYI: Had Franklin SYN Bank CD 2.50% purchasd on 12/3//19 mature today. Replaced it with Bank Of China NY CD maturing on 11/18/19 at 2.00%. Anything more than 90 days less than 2%.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S Futures Higher, Stock Volatility Eases Despite Lingering Trade Worries
    I’m not seeing “U.S. Futures higher” ??
    -- S&P futures are 1% lower as of 9:05 AM.
    -- Currency war heated up overnight in asia.
    -- Partially in response, 10-year’s around 1.63% this morning.
    -- Gold’s up. But most commodities down.
    -- Treacherous markets. Grab an umbrella.
  • Another Hit As The Trade War With China Heats Up
    Howdy,
    As noted in an earlier post, I started a momentum play in the metals as week or so back. I am particularly riding the junior silver miners as that's where the most leverage is from my perspective. As I type, we're breaking resistance at 1500 and 17. If this holds fasten your seat belts.
    And so it goes,
    Peace,
    Rono
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S Futures Higher, Stock Volatility Eases Despite Lingering Trade Worries
    FYI: • Asian stocks slip
    • Crude prices decline
    • U.S. Treasury yields tick lower
    U.S. stock index futures higher Wednesday morning, amid simmering trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
    U.S. shares gained overnight after President Donald Trump downplayed worries of a lengthy trade war and senior adviser Larry Kudlow said Trump's administration is planning to host a Chinese delegation for talks in September. Wall Street futures gauges also rose.
    European stocks climbed Wednesday following a downbeat session in Asia, as worries over U.S.-China trade tensions lingered in markets.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.7% after the opening bell, with gains led by the technology and chemicals sectors.
    ABN AMRO Bank ABN -3.32% and UniCredit were both down by around 3.2%, following the release of second-quarter earning reports. ABN AMRO Bank warned of pressure on its margins from low interest rates, and UniCredit cut its revenue guidance for the year.
    In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index and Japan’s Nikkei both declined around 0.3% and Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.4%.
    The moves came a day after U.S. stocks regained some ground from recent heavy losses, as China backed away from a further escalation in the trade row and the yuan stabilized.
    lsewhere, the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.6% against the U.S. dollar after its central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates beyond economists’ forecasts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its official cash rate by 50 basis points and signaled it could soon adopt unorthodox policy amid a deteriorating global-growth outlook.
    The move hit the Australian dollar, where bets on lower interest rates in September jumped higher. It also sparked talk of a “race to the bottom” in interest rates, said Neil Wilson, analyst at Markets.com.
    The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of its peers, was up 0.1%.
    The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.678% on Wednesday, from 1.740% on Tuesday, when it hit its second-lowest level in 2019. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
    In commodities, the global oil benchmark Brent crude was down by 0.2% to $58.84 a barrel, as investors anticipated weaker demand during a period of global economic uncertainty. Gold gained 1%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-looks-to-extend-gains-as-global-central-banks-ease-monetary-policy-2019-08-07/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-stocks-rise-while-gloom-lingers-in-asia-11565164273
    Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-06/asia-stocks-to-start-mixed-u-s-shares-climb-markets-wrap
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-disney-stock-market-rally-match-group/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-lingering-trade-war-concerns.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-dollar-china/u-s-dollar-when-will-bulls-turn-to-bears-idUKKCN1UX0AF
    U.K.
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-breaks-six-day-losing-streak-though-earnings-disappoint-idUKKCN1UX0OI
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/german-chemical-deal-lifts-european-shares-ftse-lags-idUSKCN1UX0OK
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-mixed-after-china-moves-to-stabilize-yuan-2019-08-06/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/us-treasury-bonds-china-sets-the-yuan-below-expectations.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/forex-markets-japanese-yen-us-china-trade-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/oil-markets-us-china-trade-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/gold-markets-us-china-trade-in-focus.html
    Cuirrent Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Another Hit As The Trade War With China Heats Up
    Howdy folks,
    The Chinese do not want to lose face. The Fed raising rates 25 bps, gave Trump cover to raise the tariffs on the Chinese. They must respond or lose face. Weaponizing the currency and stopping the purchase of Roundup ready Soybeans enables them to save face. Now Trump loves this because he WANTS to devalue the dollar because in his economic world view this would be a good thing - sort of like trade wars and higher tariffs are good things.
    We're spiraling down the rat hole and hopefully, all y'all realize the Chinese nuclear option is to sell Treasuries . . . of which they own a whole steeenking pot full. Geez, that might also devalue the dollar.
    Tariffs are a tax on your people and trade wars have ALWAYS ended in economic disaster - at least for the last 2,500 years or so. Read the Frogs some time about a government debasing their currency.
    Idiots,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Another Hit As The Trade War With China Heats Up
    OK, so before China imposed tariffs on soybeans & other ag goods. Now they've totally stopped importing ag goods. Doesn't seem to make much sense. But heck, I wish Trump would up the tariffs to 50% or more on ALL Chinese goods...watch the yuan tumble & it's people cry out. The US will be ok, the Chinese need our consumers more than we need theirs, just look at the trade imbalance.
  • Another Hit As The Trade War With China Heats Up
    Treasury Department designates China a ‘currency manipulator,’ a major escalation of the trade war
    Following are selected excerpts from a current Washington Post news article. The article has been substantially edited for brevity.
    BREAKING: A Treasury Department statement said that China had manipulated the exchange rate between its currency and the U.S. dollar to gain an “unfair competitive advantage.”
    The move follows the biggest one-day stock market loss of 2019, and stoked fears that a commercial dispute with no end in sight would do significant damage to a slowing global economy. China answered President Trump’s latest tariffs on Monday by allowing its tightly-controlled currency to slide to an 11-year low against the dollar, a move that threatened to turn the U.S.-China trade conflict into a global economic contagion.
    Treasury’s view was potentially even more important on Monday, because Trump alleged China was manipulating its currency, a practice that is expressly in the department’s purview.
    The currency shift also will effectively counter the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut by leading to tighter financial conditions in the United States, said Robin Brooks, chief economist of the Institute of International Finance.
    As of midafternoon, all three major U.S. stock indexes were having their worst day of 2019, falling more than 3 percent — fresh off having their worst week of the year. The Dow Jones industrial average was down more than 800 points, or more than 3 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was off by nearly 93 points, or 3.1 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down nearly 303 points, or nearly 3.8 percent. — a six-day losing streak. Trade bellwethers Caterpillar and Boeing were down 2 percent.
    The yuan’s move will likely make it difficult for developing countries that need to cut interest rates to spur growth, such as India. Instead, they will pressure to raise interest rates to attract investment, a move that would further curb growth.
    China’s central bank said it was confident it could keep the currency at a “reasonable and balanced level.” Beijing is expected to try to prevent an unrestrained plunge by the yuan, fearing it would encourage Chinese citizens to take their wealth out of the country, economists said.
    The yuan has actually held up better against the surging dollar than most U.S. trading partners. Its year-to-date decline against the dollar of 2.4 percent is much less than the currencies of two U.S. allies, the Taiwan dollar at 3.4 percent and the South Korean won at 8.6 percent.
    Beijing appeared to mount other forms of retaliation on Monday. The government has asked state-owned firms to stop their U.S. agricultural purchases, according to a Bloomberg report Monday that was widely cited by Chinese media. The crop purchases, which came from states that comprise Trump’s political base, were supposed to be a sign of Chinese goodwill as trade talks progressed.
  • Ed Yardeni: There’s A Lot More To The Stock Market’s Slide Than Trump And Trade Wars
    FYI: Something is wrong with the global economy. It's not functioning as it "should," or traditionally has. Actually, the world economy seems downright dysfunctional. This distortion relative to past norms reminds me of the skewed, tragi-comedic worldview of Garp in John Irving's best-selling 1978 novel “The World According to Garp,” about a man born out of wedlock to a feminist icon.
    The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is showing some signs of similarly unusual behavior, but it doesn't appear as abnormal as the rest of the global economy — so far. I am using the objective meaning of the word "abnormal" without drawing any subjective implications just yet. In other words, for investors, the world is what it is. Our investment conclusions must be derived based on how it is, not on how it ought to be.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-lot-more-to-the-stock-markets-slide-than-trump-and-trade-wars-2019-08-05/print