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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Energy Remains the Most Undervalued Sector -- M*
    Per their crystal ball....
    We expect a nearly complete recovery in crude demand as the pandemic subsides in 2021.
    Energy remains the most undervalued sector, trading at a 22% discount compared with a 6% premium for the overall market.
    higher prices are necessary. And if firms are unwilling to invest enough capital at midcycle prices ($55/bbl West Texas Intermediate, $60 Brent), we wouldn't rule out prices temporarily rising even higher.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1016129/energy-remains-the-most-undervalued-sector
  • TRP Special Meeting, via "zoom" or some such
    I didn't see that other thread, so I guess i stand semi-corrected? (thanks!)
    Not quite that good. It would be adding a fee on the fund of fund where none currently exists. So virtually no change in total expenses. Here's my comment from the thread where Shadow originally posted the proposed change:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/132712/#Comment_132712
    Current 0% ER (excluding acquired fund expenses):
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rpsix/price
  • TRP Special Meeting, via "zoom" or some such
    Not quite that good. It would be adding a fee on the fund of fund where none currently exists. So virtually no change in total expenses. Here's my comment from the thread where Shadow originally posted the proposed change:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/132712/#Comment_132712
    Current 0% ER (excluding acquired fund expenses):
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rpsix/price
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    Cheap money and those investing on margin..... I don't have any data about how much hot money is in the market place; using margin or otherwise.
    "Margin debt—the amount of money borrowed against stockholdings to play the market—hit a record $722 billion in November, its first record high in two years. That sounds scary. But margin debt often hits record highs as the stock market rises, making it a notoriously bad timing tool. What’s more, margin debt as a percentage of the overall value of the market is now near a 15-year low, which suggests that investors aren’t overextended just yet. What has changed is the pace at which investors are adding to their debt. It’s up about 50% from its spring low, and that kind of surge has happened only six times since 1960."
    From a Barron's article last week.
    I was able to read this without a subscription. Link
  • TRP Special Meeting, via "zoom" or some such
    https://www.proxy-direct.com/MeetingDocuments/31551/Spectrum Proxy_OK.pdf
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum Diversified Equity Fund
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income Fund
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum International Equity Fund
    "...The purpose of the Shareholder Meeting is for Fund shareholders to vote on a proposal that was approved by the Funds’ Board of Directors to amend and restate each Fund’s investment management agreement. The purpose of the proposal is to change each Fund’s overall expense structure. Under the proposal, the amended and restated investment management agreement would provide for the payment of an “all-inclusive” management fee by each Fund and the elimination of the pass-through of operating expenses to the underlying funds in which the Fund invests. The Board of Directors of the Funds recommends that you vote in favor of the proposal with respect to your Fund. If the proposal is approved by a Fund’s shareholders, the Fund would invest in Z Classes of its underlying funds, which is anticipated to result in lower total expense ratios at the time of the expense restructure. The change to the expense structure would also accommodate the future addition of a new share class for the Funds—the I Class—which is designed for institutional and other larger investors and has lower overall shareholder servicing costs than the Funds’ Investor Class. The addition of the I Class could attract larger and more diverse investors to help the Funds further grow in the future...."
    I understand the WORDS, but what does it MEAN? (I own RPSIX. )
  • M* Methodology
    The fact that AOK has dipped as low as 27% does not mean that historically its equity allocation has been under 30%. You seem to be conflating single moments in time with "historical" positions.
    What does "historical" mean anyway? "the last 5 years" is a minority of the lifetime of this fund that's been around since 2008.
    I have reclassified on my watch list as 15-30%.
    It's currently at 31.75% equity (as of Dec 31), and rose as high as 32.5% equity as of July 31, according to its most recent annual statement.
    There are always going to be problems running screens with "hard filters". I've posted on more than one occasion that IMHO it makes little sense to screen for funds that have never had a losing year. Which would you prefer: a fund that lost 0.1% in one year and made 10% or better in all its other years, or a fund that made 3% year in, year out? That's an example of a problem with any hard filter.
    As far as AOK goes, according to Lipper there are only a total of 10 ETFs including both
    "Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Moderate" and "Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Conservative" categories. So it's no big deal to watch all these funds.
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/us/screener/screener.asp
  • M* Methodology
    The obvious problem being that there are funds that sit on 30% equity historically. Basic only allows a hard filter for either 30-50 or 15-30 screens. An investor searching for 15-30% equity may find a suitable fund sitting on the lowest edge of 30-50% category that gets screened out in basic. AOK is an example. In the last 5 years they dipped as low as 27% equity but classified today as 30-50% by M*. I have reclassified on my watch list as 15-30%. AOK is a good fund IMO. Seems to me this would affect the funds performance reputation as M* is quoted often. There is no perfect world, just worth noting. I am sure also applies to 50-70%. I will pay more attention going forward.
  • M* Methodology
    There's hysteresis built into the classification system. That is, if a fund has been holding 25% equity and moves to 35% equity, M* does not immediately change its category. It waits (three years or more) to see how permanent and how significant the change is.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/306244/why-is-my-funds-style-box-different-from-its-categ
    (This talks about style drift but it could just as easily been talking about a fund changing stock/bond allocations as changing large cap/small cap allocations.)
    The point here is that one can't look at an average over time and determine how the fund is classified. The classification is "path dependent" - it depends on how it got there. A fund that hit 30% from 25% and stuck there would likely remain in its 15% to 30% category, while a fund that hit 30% from 35% and stuck there would likely remain in its 30% to 50% category.
    If the fund is bouncing back and forth between a tad under and a tad over 30%, there would be no reason to change its category. Even if those oscillations miraculously averaged exactly 30% equity.
  • M* Methodology
    They introduced new Balanced Fund categories a few years ago. You can find the above under
    Allocation Funds - 15 to 30% Equity
    Allocation Funds - 30% to 50% Equity
  • M* Methodology
    What category is assigned to a balanced fund that holds 30% equity historically? 15-30% or 30-50%?
  • But there's no inflation...
    juice futures! the bitcoin of 2021!
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Mutual Fund Ranked by Market Cap
    DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap / 954
    Morgan Stanley Inst EMkts Sm C / 1,021
    Ashmore Emerging Markets Sm Cp / 1,294
    Victory Sophus Emerging Market / 1,376
    RBC Emerging Markets Small Cap / 1,385
    Silk Invest New Horizons Front / 1,527
    AMG TimesSquare Emerging Mkts / 1,586
    Virtus KAR Emerging Markets Sm / 1,738
    Victory Trivalent Emerging Mkt / 1,774
    Templeton Emerging Markets Sma / 1,827
    ETFs such as EWX in this case may be better for pure emerging market small exposure, although I think purity is overrated.
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    No where to run to, nowhere to hide, eh?
    Risk.....
    One could write a small book about the state of investments today. Money market funds are backwards/dead monies, except for short term parking, pending other choices. Too many equity sectors are hot and interest rates/yields have trended up in recent months.
    We don't re-balance our portfolio based upon end of year or other time frames. The markets help establish any changes.
    We're at 45% equity and 55% bonds at this time. Yes, we could have found investment glory changing some investments at the being of April, 2020. But, we stayed firm throughout the year. Everyone has there own assessment of risk. There are 1,000's of combo portfolios among those at this forum. I won't agree with some of the choices, as well as many would not agree with our choices. Tis the nature of the investment beast.
    Cheap money and those investing on margin..... I don't have any data about how much hot money is in the market place; using margin or otherwise. Reportedly, there are about 13 million Robinhood accounts in the U.S. I don't know how much money these accounts are managing. More to this point is that I will presume much of this money is narrowly targeted to narrow sectors or stocks within those sectors. Twitter feeds have likely pushed a lot of this money in the past year. I don't imagine many of these folks are reading the WSJ or similar publications.
    Lastly, is that we generally have little concern for investing choices based upon elections or politicians. The machinations of Congress and the government in general move along with their compromises and decisions. Many of these actions have slow moving parts that may cause some changes in a longer term investing environments.
    However, some of our investment considerations going forward as of January 4 find a new set of circumstances that are beyond the normal, at this time; and just when we thought that Covid was the primary game changer. The Georgia Senate election and what FORM of government will find it's place in the next two weeks weighs upon investments changes at this time.
    Wishing all of you well; for a variety of reasons.
    Catch
  • The Psychology of Money
    I'll concur with Crash & his comments . Thanks for the link Observant1.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • But there's no inflation...
    everything costco is excellent, almost; wish I had put a hundred thou into the stock long ago, $10k to $5M since 1982, criminy, and yes there are better, but still
  • Stimulus checks
    According to the statute (see p. 1966 out of 5593!), this 2021 "stimulus" check is an advance of a tax credit on your 2020 return - same as the last check.
    You can't file your 2020 tax return before January 27th, which is why I think the IRS is saying that it will get all payments sent by mid January. Your tax software will have to be updated because it doesn't currently include code or worksheets to handle the second payment.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    While not small cap, I encourage you to take a look at FSEAX which is exclusively focused on Asia and has top 10% returns for the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 year time frames for both Asia Ex-Japan and also emerging markets overall. It is the most consistent fund with strong returns that I have found in EM over the long term. Also held up well in the March downturn. Available at Schwab
  • But there's no inflation...
    Dole, Mixed Tropical Fruit Syrp Passn Fr, 15.25 Oz - slightly different name, same size, same ingredients, same nutritional content, same product of Thailand. (Label says "in light syrup and passion fruit juice".)
    Amazon Pantry: $1.21 per can, unit 1 (= $14.52/dozen).
    This product comes with various different labels with slightly different names. Just look at the first two images shown for for the same Amazon 12 pack to see two different examples. Possibly anything advertised with your label of choice commands a premium now. Or maybe they're just messing with your head.
  • Stimulus checks
    If you get the deposit on the 1st of January, 2021, is the income it ultimately is tested against income in 2021? My tax program claimed more of the 1st deposit by applying the income test to 2020 where RMDs were waived. 2019 income was originally used for the deposit. RMDs aren't waved in 2021 so if you have large RMDs like we do, will you qualify pre-RMD if you received the deposit on 31st December, 2020, but face a large reduction if you received it on 1st January 2021? (We don't need the money and think it silly to give it to us instead of more needy people. I was testing my taxes in TaxAct today to see if I needed any increase in my last quarterly estimated tax. TaxAct increased the 1st deposit and it made me wonder about the applicable tax year for the 2nd deposit.)