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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Everyone Says Equities Are Overvalued, So They’re Piling In - from Bloomberg
    Author Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg.
    This is a gifted link to Bloomberg
  • M* Annual Mutual Fund List
    I recall Forbes' The Honor Roll.
    Active Fund Strategies researched funds' subsequent performance
    after inclusion on Forbes' list from 1990 through 2010 (highlighted below).
    I wonder if anyone has conducted similar research for the M* list?
    While the Forbes Honor Roll did produce some stellar fund selections, especially the 1996 list,
    Forbes Magazine’s ability to call out top fund performance in advance,
    either short-term or longterm, was not much better than that of a coin toss!
    1. Over the 23 years studied, Forbes had 1,491 opportunities to demonstrate its fund selection prowess.
    The annual in-category performance of its recommendations is as follows:
    top quartile__2nd quartile__3rd quartile__bottom quartile
    27%________ 24%________ 22%________ 27%
    408_________365_________326_________392
    That’s a first/worst ratio of 51/49, which, once again, has all the success of a coin flip!
    2. Three years after inclusion on the list, 27% of the honorees made it to the top quartile of their category,
    while 25% landed at the bottom.
    A small majority (54%) finished in the top half and a large minority (46%) finished in the bottom half.
    3. Five years after inclusion on the list, 27% of the honorees made it to the top quartile of their category,
    while 26% landed at the bottom.
    The 5-year post performance produced a dismal top half/bottom half ratio of 50/50.
    PDF
  • BlackRock’s Rick Rieder Reportedly Under Consideration As New Federal Reserve Chair
    Thanks @yogibearbull. I was half-watching BB this afternoon. They were having fun showing Trump saying the search was down to 2 or 3 candidates for “it” (the Fed Chair). Freudian slip. Next, they showed Bessent saying he would be interviewing 10-12 candidates in the coming days.
    FWIW - I have trouble taking Rieder seriously. Yet, one wonders why he would allow his good name to be used in this connection if he’s not interested. Can’t do anything for his fund flows. Can it?
    I hope this Bloomberg Story / Link works for everyone. I learned from rforno recently that it is possible to gift Bloomberg articles. :)
  • Rate cut in September FED meeting
    FedWatch has updated their prediction. The probability of 25 bps cut is 93% while a 50% bps cut is at 7%.
    https://cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
    Bonds reacted positively today.
    Question is how are you positioning your bonds to benefit from the rate cut ?
  • Wasatch International Small Cap Value & Wasatch Global Small Cap Value funds - now available
    Updated SEC filing extending effective date to September 10, 2025.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312525177837/d85664d485bxt.htm
    @TheShadow - should this be interpreted as Wasatch having trouble raising enough money to launch the funds?
  • QDSNX Confusion
    With the market at an all time high, and generally considered to be overvalued, I bought additional shares in QDSNX, an alternative fund with an excellent risk/reward profile which has worked very well for me so far.
    It never had a losing calendar year since its inception in July 2020. Even in 2022, a year of significant losses for most funds, the fund's total return was a gain of 14.5%. The max. drawdown over the life of the fund was 4.55%, that was from June to July of 2022. The drawdown was recovered by November 2022, according to Portfolio Visualizer. 
    By the way, QDSNX's correlation to the S&P 500 is 0.12.
  • M* Annual Mutual Fund List
    "It’s time once again for our popular thrilling funds feature.
    As you may recall, this is a list I generate with simple, strict screens to narrow a universe
    of 15,000 fund share classes down to a short list ranging between 25 and 50.
    It’s purely a screen; I don’t make any additions or subtractions."

    Here are the tests:
    Expense ratio in the Morningstar Category’s cheapest quintile. (I use the prospectus adjusted expense ratio,
    which includes underlying fund fees but does not include leverage and shorting costs.)
    Manager investment of more than $1 million in the fund (the top rung of the investment ranges reported in SEC filings).
    Morningstar Risk rating lower than High.
    Morningstar Medalist Rating of Bronze or higher.
    Parent Pillar rating better than Average.
    Returns greater than the fund’s category benchmark over the manager’s tenure for a minimum of five years.
    In the case of allocation funds, I also used category averages because benchmarks are often pure equity
    or bond, and therefore not good tests.
    Must be a share class accessible to individual investors with a minimum investment of no greater than $50,000.
    No funds of funds.
    Funds must be rated by Morningstar analysts.
    image
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/thrilling-33
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    "Some funds have exploited an accounting loophole by buying stakes in other private-equity funds at big
    discounts on the secondary market and then marking them up immediately to their official net asset values.
    Sometimes the technique has resulted in gains of 1,000% or more in a single day."

    "But other funds make comparisons complicated, if not impossible, by listing the cost figures
    in lengthy footnotes, rather than in the main tables. The only way to determine the size of the markups
    is to manually match the costs for each investment (in the footnote) with the latest fair values listed
    on the disclosure table. Even that doesn’t always work."

    "Take, for instance Partners Group Private Equity (Master Fund),
    which last reported almost $16 billion of net assets.
    It is the largest SEC-registered private-equity fund, according to Interval Fund Tracker."

    image
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/how-one-big-private-equity-fund-makes-its-numbers-incomprehensible/ar-AA1Kr02r
  • Keeping Up with the Joneses, Current monthly auto and lease payments....OUCH !
    From Spencer Jakab's Markets A.M. newsletter.
    "New car prices are at a record.
    People looking for a deal on a used car in the U.S. are having to pay up too.
    The average price of a 3-year-old used car rose above the $30,000 mark
    again earlier this year, and has trended upward since."

    image
  • Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts. Article by Forsyth / Barrons
    @DrVenture, slashing the Fed funds interest rate in times of rising inflation will show us all that the POTUS knows best.
    Inflation and taxes will not have any stock market impact....until the algos flip the switch. Could be next week, next month, next year. Nobody knows.
    If you are a consumer in the real world, it's a completely different experience. Which takes us back to the OP.......does the CPI data reflect reality?
    Edit: Had never heard of the "sticky price CPI" report from the Atlanta Fed......
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/13/as-trump-berates-goldman-other-economists-agree-that-higher-tariff-inflation-is-coming.html
    "The Cleveland Fed’s measure of sticky price CPI inflation, which includes items such as rent, food away from home, insurance, household furnishings and the like, has shown a steady uptick. It’s at 3.8% on a three-month annualized basis, the highest since May 2024."
  • Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts. Article by Forsyth / Barrons
    Of course, none of us knows what is going to happen yet. Yet, there are some troubling signs, that shouldn't be brushed aside. It is way too early to assume that this utter rejiggering of trade, via taxation, will have no negative consequences, possibly profoundly so. It is best to remain open-minded, exercise a measure of caution and keep acquiring information.
    My biggest concern here is that there is no credible team of economic minds at the wheel. We have many times been told that "those who were wrong before have no credibility" - paraphrased. Then apply that same judgment to this current 'economic' team, led by Stephen Moore, Bessent, Trump and the others.
    I am still at a 58% equity allocation, and up 10% YTD, but holding lots of cash too. And consider lowering that equity allocation every day.
  • Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts. Article by Forsyth / Barrons
    The bots continue to march equities +35 to +50 bps per day at market open, and that's what matters...right? Who cares about jobs, economy, inflation, earnings, authoritarian coups, valuations, etc.
    If Algos run the world markets, then that's the disconnect from reality. It's a game of chicken - there are numerous bears sitting on the sidelines, and the algos stare them down daily.
    Who cares if earnings cannot support stock prices. Market breadth? Pfffft....Tech can overcome all.
    Rising inflation is just a side show.
  • giroux brief pod
    Just looking at a few other funds in PRWCX’s league - perhaps not as good:
    From M* 15 year average annual return:
    PRWCX 11.96%
    GLFOX 10.98%
    DODBX 10.24%
    10 years
    PRWCX 10.86%
    GLFOX 9.30%
    DODBX 8.76%
    5 years
    PRWCX 10.94%
    DODBX 10.71%
    CPLSX 10.42%
    GLFOX 10.24%
    I’ve owned all 4 over the years. CPLSX, the only one I currently hold, is 9 years old. Surprising, has held its own among this distinguished crowd over that time. It’s a long/short fund with a substantially higher cost. Perhaps a safer bet for us ”late middle-aged” folks. Inception April 2016 / 8% average annual return since.
  • Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts. Article by Forsyth / Barrons
    Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts

    • CPI says “no big inflation” — sorry to the hundreds of experts who swore it was coming any minute now.
    • S&P 500 at yet another all-time high — apparently Wall St. doesn't have doubts!!
    Weakening job numbers is more concerning than a little more inflation. AI, general uncertainty about economy and tariffs are causing unemployment for college grads to be higher than general unemployment rate.
    There were 30,000 - 50,000 applicants for 100-200 summer internships in top tech companies. Even small companies in small Midwest towns are getting up to 1,000 applications for one internship.
    Heritage Foundation (conservative think tank) argues that broad indiscriminate tariff measures jack up production costs, disrupt American manufacturers (who rely on imported parts), prompt costly retaliatory duties, and ultimately cost U.S. jobs.
    Among households where the head is 50 or older, about 23% hold more than $30,000 in non-retirement stock assets. We need that number to be > 75%!
  • converging factors hit rightwing fund manager

    i must admit to being a longtime reader for the audacious (sometimes atrocious) nature of assets kuppy would buy. but the 'never losing' and politics was tiring, and 2025q2 is a partial but marked change.
  • Listed Alt Funds Are Disappearing
    @yogibearbull
    The alleged die-off of alternative funds in the '10s could be evidence of healthy 'wheat from chaff' separation typical of any newly emerging category. Chart in the article ends at 2020, which leaves me wondering whether the improved quality of the offerings and better understanding of the market has led to more encouraging statistics over the most recent 5-year timeframe.
    Here is some evidence.
    The Globe and Mail: Alternative funds see big jump in flows in first half of 2025 (08-06-25) [paywall]
    "Ian Tam, director of investment research for Canada at Morningstar Inc., says almost $9-billion flowed into liquid alternative mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first half of 2025. A whopping $6.1-billion was invested in the first quarter of the year alone – more than double the inflows of any previous quarter since liquid alts came to market in 2019.
    "Alternative funds accounted for 26 per cent of mutual fund sales in the first half of the year, Mr. Bragg says, while liquid alt ETFs made up about 4 per cent of total ETF sales in the first half.
    "Performance has been relatively steady across the range of liquid alternative asset funds, which includes alternative credit and equity, market neutral, multi-strategy, and private debt and equity. The average one-year return is 7.4 per cent, the three-year average is 8.1 per cent, and the five-year average is 6.7 per cent, according to data from Morningstar.
    "Alternative investments have changed with the times, Mr. Johnston says. They used to mean investing your money for years with no liquidity options, no interim cash flow, and no secondary market, which doesn’t work for the average retail investor, he says.
    Now, funds have lower investment minimums, shorter holding periods, liquidity options and a secondary market."

  • Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts. Article by Forsyth / Barrons
    Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts
    • CPI says “no big inflation” — sorry to the hundreds of experts who swore it was coming any minute now.
    • S&P 500 at yet another all-time high — apparently Wall St. doesn't have doubts!!
  • converging factors hit rightwing fund manager
    despite mkt highs, memes, and the golden age of grift ; things have not gone well for every fund manager.
    what happens when the following factors converge :
    a. fund manager deeply believes in gop economic strategy and voted for trump twice.
    b. so hates paying taxes for anything such that relocates firm and household to puerto rico (where he had to install backup generators for power reliability)
    c. has gone from historically posting that he has never lost money in a trade (despite impossibility) to nearly admitting he has lost money on every trade.
    despite being shocked by trump's actual economic actions, he seems reluctant to shed blame due to his cultural alignment...not at all uncommon to MAGA. yes, luck continues playing a role, as part of his rational was that american largecaps are no place to invest, and he believes his only edge was in illiquid foreign microcaps (or such).
    https://go.pracap.com/hubfs/Quarterly Letters/2025/2025 Q2 Investor Letter - Approved v2.pdf
  • vanguard's 40\60 is the new 60\40, w/ u.s. 20% max
    On June commentary this year, our MFO contributor, @lynnbolin22 recommended VGYAX for conservative global investors.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2025/06/investing-internationally-for-the-timid-investor/
    Going forward, this fund will perform better with more oversea exposure.
  • giroux brief pod
    I'll give it a listen this morning. Giroux is the Master. I have kept PRWCX at a hair over 40% of total, and added PRCFX at about 14% of total. Yes, surely there is overlap, but I wanted to take advantage of his knowledge and acumen while owning more bonds to reduce risk, overall.... 54% of my total with one guy? De-risk-ing? Some might tell me: "not hardly!" .....I know. I know.
    Giroux's funds are 2 of 5 mutual funds we own. Two are junk bond funds. Wife is in BALFX, another balanced fund--- doing nicely for her. Today and yesterday, I'm particularly glad I threw money into those particular 3 single stocks that we own. Together, they are 18.03% of total.
    YTD PRWCX +8.46%
    PRCFX +7.2
    nice. Amid all the craziness and Orange turmoil.
    EDIT TO ADD:
    His counter-intuitive, counter-cyclical strategy makes great sense. Very Buffett-ish.