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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FAIRX - blast from the past
    Does anyone know what is driving these moves in JOE?
    I could never find any news to explain its strong moves recently on the upside(Up 147% year-to-yesterday). And I see no news to explain its 12% loss in the first hour this morning. What is going on?
    dryflower in Fund Discussions
  • FAIRX - blast from the past
    Just when you thought FAIRX was back...JOE is DOWN TODAY OVER -10%
    Carefree in Fund Discussions
  • "IVOL might be an option for some"
    YTD, IVOL is up 14.6% vs. SCHP 10.6%, per the M* $10k growth chart function. The March drawdown was far less. Looks to me like the volatility/steepener addon to a 'normal' TIPS fund is pretty significant.
    One angle I really don't get (and I saw a long interview with the manager on the Hedgeye website, where it wasn't addressed) is exactly where that 3%+ distribution yield is coming from.
    I've had a small test position for a while, and am leaning toward keeping it in the port.
    AndyJ in Fund Discussions
  • Investing at the All Time Highs In VFINX
    The S&P 500 through the lens of Presidencies:
    stock-market-by-president
    If you need to spend your money within the next 3-5 years... keep it in cash (or ST Treasury Bonds).
    @davidmoran, If you can avoid the powerful persuasions of fear and greed over the middle term (3 -10 years) by following rules...we all need personal investment rules...then equities over the long term looks promising.
    The 10 year rolling average of an index such as the S&P 500 is pretty impressive.
    In Percentage Change (last update 2016):
    image
    Source:
    https://bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/rolling-1-2-3-5-10-and-20-year-sp-500-performance/
    In Percentage Returns (10 year rolling average):
    image
    There are two major takeaways from the chart below:
    1. Historically, once the long-term mean has been breached on the up-side, annualized returns have remained elevated above the mean for an average of almost 18 years.
    2. Historically, once the long-term mean has been breached on the down-side, annualized returns have remained subdued below the mean for an average of almost 10 years. This is significantly lower relative to the time-frame on above mean returns.
    Source:
    https://credentwealth.com/blog/10-year-annualized-rolling-returns
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • "IVOL might be an option for some"
    Per their material: "IVOL is a first-of-its-kind ETF which is designed to hedge the risk of an increase in fixed income volatility and/or an increase in inflation expectations. It also seeks to profit from a steepening of the yield curve, whether that occurs via rising long-term interest rates or falling short term interest rates, which are historically associated with large equity market declines....What makes IVOL unique is that it is long interest rate volatility via its access to the OTC fixed income options market. No other active or passive ETF has provided its investors access to this market before."
    I think the 'secret sauce' is their options stuff and access to OTC stuff that we don't have - but you could probablt replicate much of fairly easily. That said, I suspect the majority of its performance is probably from SCHP and you could stick with SCHP if you wanted to.
    Bogleheads has a lengthy thread on it, which is where I stumbled across it and decided to take a flyer on -- so far it's done fine. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=324165
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • Investing at the All Time Highs In VFINX
    I agree 1929 will not come again. True of all history. But as long as the potential for nukes, climate change, ideological fanatics, the computer hack to end all hacks like "Mr. Robot," nationalist/fascist resurgence, war with China, a far worse pandemic, etc. exist, who's to say really what could or couldn't happen in the stock market? The modern stock market's history is so short relative to human history and virtually non-existent relative to evolutionary history, yet people make assertions about its future performance like it is as certain as the law of gravity. I know there are no guarantees in life, but it often seems strange to me that so many people's futures depend on something as random as securities markets. It's this kind of disconnected thinking that makes me laugh when I hear people demanding we privatize Social Security and put the whole ball of wax in stocks. The desire seems to me to rip up all the safety nets and let everything become a winner-take-all game of chance. Nor do I assume most on this board think this way--most I assume know that just because investing at peaks has worked recently doesn't mean it will continue to--but I know there are plenty out there who do think religiously about stock market appreciation. They take it as a given.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity
    About that rejected energy
    Americans used less energy in 2019
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity
    A description of what is considered to be Rejected Energy (for the 2018 version of the chart):
    All energy use results in some losses, shown on the charts as rejected energy. This energy most often takes the form of waste heat, such as the warm exhaust from automobiles and furnaces. The efficiency of the nation’s cars, lightbulbs and factories determines how much waste heat is produced and how much fuel and electricity can be put to productive use.
    https://llnl.gov/news/us-energy-use-rises-highest-level-ever
    davfor davfor in Other Investing
  • FPA Capital meeting postponed until 12/16/2020
    FPA Capital still needs more votes to ratify the fund merger. Meeting was adjourned to January 27, 2021.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99188/000110465920139878/tm2039435d1_defa14a.htm
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity
    15 years is a long time. 15 years before we landed on the moon we didn't even have an orbital flight. It seems like a short time but a lot can happen in 15 years, more so with an optimistic outlook. I'm sure in 1954 there were people who said there is no freakin way we'll ever land a man on the moon in 15 years, that's crazy talk.
    royal4 in Other Investing
  • The Making of Biden's Superfast Push for Clean Electricity
    I always liked this flow chart. It shows the magnitude of the task to change the country’s energy sources. According to this, solar supplies a tiny amount of electrical generation and a minuscule (1%) of the total consumption. I’m not saying don’t change, just pointing out what a heavy lift it will be.
    image
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-americas-energy-use-in-one-giant-chart/
    Original source: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov
    Rbrt Rbrt in Other Investing
  • I am losing my patience with TBGVX ?

    Even though, as I read in Al Jazeera: four-fifths of UK GDP is in the financial sector. And the "deal" includes absolutely zero content about financials. So, free and easy access to the continent's financial sector will END for the UK on January 1st. So, as I'm fond of stating here: "ORK!" What sort of "deal" is THAT????? Politicians just lying to us all again. What a f*****g surprise, eh?
    I just looked at this WSJ article But it’s far from clear. It states:” This will provide many U.K. service suppliers with legal guarantees that they will not face barriers to trade when selling into the EU and will support the mobility of U.K. professionals who will continue to do business across the EU," according to the document.“
    The article ends with: “EU Officials are watching the U.K. closely for signals that their former partner will become too much of a competitor....[currently(?)] More than 90% of euro-denominated interest-rate derivatives and 84% of foreign-exchange trading in the EU take place in the U.K., according to New Financial.”
    Rbrt Rbrt in Fund Discussions
  • Investing at the All Time Highs In VFINX
    I know Hussman carries little weight but he has done studies that show much the opposite. Of course, it’s not clear what “market internals” are & also we are reminded that *In theory there is no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is often a significant difference*.
    image
    Rbrt Rbrt in Fund Discussions
  • FAIRX - blast from the past
    What could go wrong? Half the FAIRX portfolio, St Joe, bought almost 13y ago and up >140% ytd, is
    ... one of Florida's largest landowners, with about 573,000 owned acres, of which 70% is located within 15 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. Holdings are concentrated in Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, and countries, in the northwest corner of the state. It also owns a few thousand acres in other counties. It has secured entitlement for development on roughly 30,600 of these acres, to include about 16,300 residential units and 10.3 million square feet of commercial space. Several thousand of its entitled acres won't be developed for decades.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • Resolute Investment Managers, Inc. exercising option in ARK ETF TRUST
    ARK to retain control of its funds:
    https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/cathie-wood-strikes-deal-to-keep-control-of-ark/a1444110
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund update
    Update:
    Looks like the offering has been pushed back until January 8.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29440/000168386320015329/f7601d1.htm
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    I'm assuming that @Crash means that PTIAX's R² calculated relative to Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is substantially higher than the category's R² calculated relative to that same index.
    While 39% is certainly higher than 16%, the numbers are so low as to provide little insight. At best (i.e. assuming that the linear regressions are even meaningful), it says that 2/5 of PTIAX's gains/losses can be explained by movements in the "bond market".
    Multisector bond funds don't resemble the bond market and so comparing performance with the broad market doesn't offer much insight. M* doesn't even benchmark the category against this index. Instead it uses Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Universal Bond Index. (See the footnotes under the Risk and Volatility Measures table cited.)
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/864498/a-more-complete-bond-index-fund
    FWIW, the index that M* finds to be the best fit to the fund is a 65/35 blend of Barclays High Grade and Barclays High Yield indexes. Which isn't all that surprising given that the fund has about 10% BB or below and another 8% unrated. That's less junk than the category average (40% BB or below and 5% unrated), which also explains its higher but still small correlation with the (investment grade) aggregate bond index.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=PTIAX
    Compare this with a multisector fund like TSIIX which comes close to category average allocations: 36% BB or below and 4% unrated). With more junk, its R² relative to the investment grade aggregate bond index of 15.30% is nearly the same as the category average 16%.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=TSIIX
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    With regard to PMEFX , I'd like to see how it handles a 20%+ bear market before investing .
    If it’s any indication, during the 2008 bear market, the fund they formerly managed, BERIX, had a MaxDD of 13% and a return of -12.0% with a recovery time of 6+ months.
    MrRuffles MrRuffles in Fund Discussions
  • I am losing my patience with TBGVX ?
    Just my two cents, but I doubt most of these int'l value funds will ever beat the S&P over the long run. Corporate culture is different here in the US; more greed, leading to more production, profits. Think Pfizer, Apple, Amazon, etc.
    Those words are truer than you might know! Gordon Gecko: "Greed is good." Yes, these days, it's not easy to see VALUE, domestic or foreign, having another "day in the sun" anytime soon. But as for international GROWTH: I'm interested to see the extent of any positive jump in Europe and the UK bourses, in response--- finally--- to a Brexit deal. Even though, as I read in Al Jazeera: four-fifths of UK GDP is in the financial sector. And the "deal" includes absolutely zero content about financials. So, free and easy access to the continent's financial sector will END for the UK on January 1st. So, as I'm fond of stating here: "ORK!" What sort of "deal" is THAT????? Politicians just lying to us all again. What a f*****g surprise, eh?
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    Thanks, Crash and Starchild, for your suggestions.
    PTIAX, another multisector bond fund, looks good and I'll add it to my watchlist to monitor its risk/reward performance.
    Fred: M* link to 3-5-10 year risk/reward profile:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ptiax/risk
    I'm seeing a relatively high R-squared compared to its category.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions