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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Or is it silly on my part to think that this debt will have to ever be paid?
    I’m not following everything there. I have no particular interest in Cathy except I thought the subject of a new innovative fund might be of interest on a forum devoted to investing - especially via funds. DraftKings? Illustratuve of Wood’s investments.
    Re: “the national debt”, it’s not as simple as “paying it all back.” Sovereign countries are different than individuals in that they can print money and back it with something called “full faith and credit.” You and I don’t have that capacity. So as long as the country’s GDP is growing and the country remains strong in other respects (ie defense, infrastructure, research capacity) than there is no need to repay all that debt. I’ll let the economists decide and debate what a reasonable debt level is. But No. I don’t think it all needs to be repaid.
    I’ve been reading national news publications since I was 15. Goes back to Goldwater. And this horse *** from the right about “stealing from our grandchildren” has been around a long time!
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Think we don’t have sufficient patient data to confirm the impact of Omicron on the broader population and demographic. Moderna news from Financial Times said one thing (somewhat negative) and BioNTech provided a more positive news with their vaccine. The comments in Financial Times article are well worthwhile to read.
    https://ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f
    https://ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/biontech-ceo-says-vaccine-likely-to-protect-against-severe-covid-19-from-omicron-1.5687229
    COVID situation has elevated to the top since last Friday. Will we re-visit last spring when many countries underwent lockdown? Personally I don’t think so, with the advancement on prevention (vaccines), treatment (antibodies, antiviral drugs and steroid medication). Restrictive travel has already deployed in Europe, Asia and US and that is good. Testing of air travelers and contact tracing are being used. All these practices will slow down the virus spread while buy times for the medical community and government to response. The coordination between the countries is highly encouraging.
    Learned from last spring, I will stay put and make small adjustments if necessary.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Likely going to take another Schmeissing today, meaning REMIX/BLNDX.
    I'm out. His models obviously did not pick up swift change in trend. I don't have the facts and could be wrong as I do NOT know the details but it appears that the fund mgr had a large downdraft in 2nd half of 2018 in his old Managed Futures fund...a real arse kicking...hope that doesn't happen here. Almost like indexed across all equites and then leverages to commodities and currencies which are very difficult to get right...wrong model, wrong turn, less dough in pocket.
    Any time, drawdown ~8% within a week or so, buh-bye.
    Some think that 4500 on the SPY is the line in the sand for those technical indicator types...
    Me? With Powell talking like he did today, maybe taking the pnch bowl away quicker than many think...of course he could be just jaw boning....inflation kinda out of control...no way this is slowing down anytime soon....talk to folks who do procurement, sourcing etc. They know what is going on. Don't like the smell of any of it.
    My spidey sense, so called experience recalls many times when you get this yo-yo...more like a spring going back and forth and than boing....could be biggly boing to the downside. Very dangerous.
    For certain, I have no clue what is going to happen but I am playing it safe investment wise.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    @rforno : 7.7 million assets all in ONE holding ! Do you own any SARK or do you plan to buy ? I assume total assets around 10 mil..
    Derf
    LOL, I want nothing to do with ARK or Cathie or momentum/herd actions on Wall Street.
    Besides, if i want to own or short a company, I'll do it on myself and cut out the middle person.
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    @rforno : 7.7 million assets all in ONE holding ! Do you own any SARK or do you plan to buy ? I assume total assets around 10 mil..
    Derf
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    It must be very challenging to manage fund flows for the ARK ETFs.
    The funds generated eye-popping returns in 2020 which led to large inflows.
    "The Ark family of ETFs shot the lights out in 2020.
    All five of the firm’s mainline funds produced triple-digit returns.
    Investors took notice.
    The firm pulled in $20.5 billion in net flows in 2020, representing 646% organic growth.
    As 2020 came to a close, the firm ranked as the 11th-largest ETF provider."

    Link
    Their flagship fund, ARK Innovation, has dropped precipitously from it's February high.
    Outflows started in April (first time since Oct. 2019) and increased during the third quarter.
    "ARKK's past 10 months are not an uncommon story.
    Fear of missing out following a stellar year for a fund can drive rapid inflows, and when the fund
    is unable to repeat history, investors start to lose interest.
    Investors who lack patience often suffer the most by buying at a high and selling after a decline."

    Link
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    The Short Innovation Fund is quite unusual.
    AFAIK, this is the only fund that shorts an actively managed fund.
    Yes - That’s my understanding. I’ve followed this with interest for several months since they filed the paperwork with the SEC. SARK appears to have opened in mid November.
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    Wood has been loading up on DKNG - an online gaming / gambling company that went public only a year or two ago. Highly speculative. Got above $70 briefly within the past year. She reportedly bought a huge chunk at around $43 - $44 a couple weeks ago. This morning it fell briefly below $35. I owned a small bit once but got out. Already have more excitement than can handle investment wise - though suspect Wood’s call is the right one.
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Using QQQ as a comparison, ARK's performance (ARKK) over the last year appears to be off by 30% while QQQ is up 17%.
    Is that reflection of ARK owning over hyped, over bought companies?
    I am thinking yes.
    That said, shorting seems like just another hype.
    That said, it appears ARK is still correcting, as it is making lower lows.
    image
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    PRHYX is closed to new investors. However, a reasonable substitute HY bond fund is still open - US High yield, TUHYX. Performance/risk of PRHYX is a bit better.
    On a lower risk tier is TRP Floating Rate fund, PRFRX. The duration is less than one year with 30 day yield of 3.8%. Bank loan or floating rate fund was brought to my attention by David Giroux of TRP Capital Appreciation fund.
    Before diving into these funds, beware that during spring 2020 drawdown, they were down over 10% and bounced back quickly for the year.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    If I may digest from the original post on EM small caps for a moment. There are still few EM opportunities still available in larger caps. I use NWFFX for a number of years as a lower risk EM fund. The broader mandate allow companies that derive majority of their revenue from EM including Microsoft.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/975441/go-active-in-emerging-markets
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1 Slightly off topic but when will PRHYX reopen ?
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1 Andy The question is: which trading vehicle is best for this new opportunity- oef or etf (I'm too chicken to buy a closed-end fund!)
    @Carew, depending on the exact situation, I'd prob'ly lean toward SVARX in an open-end fund. Making bucks after a blowout is their M.O. But I'm watching PDI and PDO with interest; they've both sold off lately and might come into bargain territory at about the right time.
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1 Andy The question is: which trading vehicle is best for this new opportunity- oef or etf (I'm too chicken to buy a closed-end fund!)
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    This Rekenthaler M* article on EMs may be worth a read. He finds that shareholders like us (I.e., outsiders, not insiders) have not seen our EM investments pay anywhere near what the growth rates of the various countries would suggest, especially since the GFC.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1032995/emerging-markets-equities-a-promise-half-fulfilled
  • Half of this year’s blockbuster IPOs are underwater, despite broad stock rally
    Article appears in today’s (November 29) Financial Times.
    Link is for an alternate source which may be more accessible.
    Title is taken from the FT.
    Bylines: Hudson Lockett & Tabby Kinder
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    This ETF is quite new, if anyone is interested. Lipper shows it but w/o much detail.
    “Ark did not respond to requests for comment … about the new Short Innovation ETF.”
    Story
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Just read an interesting Bloomberg article which takes a retrospective look at the BRICS.
    Link
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    What a difference a year makes. Fun reviewing previous commentary about the EM market now that it's close to year end.
    Here's the performance YTD:
    ARTYX -4.19%
    FSEAX -8.55%
    WAESX +16.11
    MIOPX -2.02
    WAEMX +24.13
    And a link on WAEXS courtesy of Kiplinger/ Nov 24: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/mutual-funds/603792/wasatch-emerging-markets-smallcap-goes-its-own-way
    ARTYX and FSEAX = not my finest choices for 2021. Should have exited back in March.