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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Treasury vs Non-Treasury MM funds
    By definition, prime MMFs are not exclusively invested in federal government securities, let alone treasuries. This is why the SEC instituted regulations on prime MMFs that require them to impose redemption fees and/or restrict redemptions when they have liquidity issues.
    To both avoid those restrictions and to make sure that your MMF owns only government securities, buy a "government MMF". For the most safety, buy a MMF that by prospectus says that it invests substantially all of its money in Treasuries.
    VUSXX comes close. Its prospectus reads:
    Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the Fund’s assets will be invested in U.S. Treasury securities; the remainder of the assets may be invested in securities issued by U.S. governmental agencies.
    For 100% in treasuries, FDLXX's prospectus reads: "Normally investing at least 99.5% of total assets in cash and U.S. Treasury securities."
    Fidelity also offers FZFXX. That isn't really a Treasury fund despite its name, because it can invest any amount in repurchase agreements. Those don't have the same Treasury protection, nor are they state tax exempt (at least as of a 1994 Supreme Court ruling). Only 30% of its income last year was state exempt, meaning the rest wasn't in Treasuries.
  • Tweedy, Browne: "this is no time to go wobbly"
    David said "On a passing note, I just been trying to add to my BIAWX holdings but thwarted by TD's $50 transaction fee. Their soon-to-be parent sells the fund NTF, so I'm trying to see if there's any flex available."
    Does TD offer a lower fee amount for automatic investments? Fidelity also charges the $49.95 fee for additions but reduces it to $5 if done automatically.
  • TARP , TALF , QE - Infinity , what will be plan neXt , as in "X"
    Really short on time this AM, a bit sloppy for this post.
    TARP and TALF were the monetary back stops for the 2008 market melt, the last chance at the time. Aside from the state of the equity side of life and the focus there; the forgotten parts regular investors don't think about much; is the health of the "other" monetary areas of the economy. There are the every day, don't pay much attention to; large institution that are important in many aspects of everyday life; being large insurance companies and pension funds.
    One example: As a result of the 2008 market melt, Lincoln Financial Group purchased a small S & L in order to qualify for a bail out package. The organization was at the edge of collapse.
    More on this and a few links are at this April, 2017 MFO page.
    The below Fed Act is a broad search, so you'll have to pick and choose by newest date for likely best review; if you have interest in this.
    Federal Reserve Act, Sect. 13(3)
    CNBC article
    Overview, IMHO: Gonna have to be a pile of fiscal action via Congress, aside from whatever is "legal" from the Treasury or Fed. Reserve.
    Will repeat, Treasury check to the adults; and $2 Trillion other money; as a start
    Hey, what do you think???
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Fall out from covid-19
    The US does have more ICU beds per capita than other countries as the graphic shows. A Johns Hopkins page provides similar data.
    That's certainly one measure of preparedness. But it's just one of many and IMHO underscores how the US healthcare forces are underprepared and poorly utilized compared with other countries. The Johns Hopkins page notes that the limiting factor on ventilator therapy is not the amount of hardware available but the number of medical professionals in the field.
    Under normal circumstances, a country having a greater reserve capacity as measured per capita means that it is more likely to be able to handle a surge in medical needs without suffering additional deaths. But in extraordinary circumstances, a surge can far exceed capacity.
    The number of additional deaths is then determined primarily by the spillover of the surge, not by the comparatively small number of ICU beds available. This is why the critical factor is not the number of ICU beds per capita but how well a country spreads out the surge, i.e. "flattening" it by early intensive government intervention.
    It's not just ICU beds and ventilators that are needed. It's a whole infrastructure - health care professionals, hospital beds in toto (where the US lags far behind per capita), it's an integrated healthcare system (e.g. Taiwan is able to ration masks to ensure availability), and so on.
    The US is very good at spending money on the most expensive equipment and drugs. Not so good at allocating resources where they can do the most good for the most people.
    It provides the best medical care money can buy, even if that best care is bought from other countries.
  • Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    Hi guys, Old_Skeet is thinking of reducing my cash allocation area from 20% to 15% and raise my income area from 40% to 42% and my equity area from 40% to 43%. Seems muni's have taken a beating of late and I'll buy a little there plus continue to buy on the equity side mostly in my equity income sleeve. And, so it goes. Take care. Old_Skeet
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    The barometer will be moving to the other investment category from off topic. So, in the future start looking for it in the other investment category going forward.
    Yesterday, Old_Skeet just watched. I'm thinking of buying should the Index reach a 32%/33% decline mark. In addition, yesterday my income area got hit pretty hard so it is starting to look attractive as well for some nearterm buying activity. Still sitting on a sizeable cash position but may reduce down to about the 15% level soon.
    By the way ... The barometer is pegged on the high side at 180+.
    Take care ...
  • Fall out from covid-19
    Interesting thoughts. I assume the big investment banks use models of this sort. I know Goldman Sachs has recently predicted a significant drop in GDP - from the attached:
    “ The coronavirus pandemic will drag the US into a recession after a sharp decline to economic activity through the first half of the year, Goldman Sachs said Sunday.
    GDP growth will slow to a halt in the first quarter before shrinking 5% in the second quarter, the bank's analysts wrote.”
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426
  • Sell US dollar?... markets bottoming soon??!
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/morgan-stanley-says-markets-bottoming-022115915.html
    Morgan Stanley Says Markets Are Bottoming So Sell U.S. Dollar
    (Bloomberg) -- Global financial markets are now in a bottoming phase, and investors should start to add risk and sell the U.S. dollar, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • Don’t look at your 401(k)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-look-at-your-401k-2020-03-16
    /Don’t look at your 401(k)
    Published: March 16, 2020 at 9:51 a.m. ET
    By Brett Arends
    Yes, it’s down now — but that won’t matter when you retire/
    Best advice heard all day
    Along with getting few kegs Heineken
  • Very Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332110-15-safe-blue-chips-to-buy-during-this-bear-market
    ry Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD
    The bear market so many have long feared is here. Stocks didn't just enter a bear market last week, they crashed into one with gusto.
    COVID-19 panic, combined with worst oil crash since the Financial Crisis, have combined to create a perfect storm of fear, literally the second highest in 30 years.
    However, regardless of when this bear market ends (and it surely will), great companies are always on sale, BUT especially when the market is panicking.
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD are 15 very safe blue chips who have collectively delivered 15% CAGR returns over the last 23 years.
    From today's 25% undervaluation they could deliver about 17% CAGR long-term returns. Just don't forget to always use the right asset allocation for your needs, because when the bears roar on Wall Street, almost no stock is spared short-term pain
  • Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    I'm going to finally start a cash-position. All my "cash" is just the combined amount that my Fund Managers are sitting on. I can't believe things will turn around before the election in November. If things bounce-back quickly, I won't be sad. What about the prospect of a 1930s extended Depression? Oil is one good indicator. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. I paid for more expensive gas in California in October than I ever have in Hawaii. And generally, Hawaii's gas is 30% higher than I was accustomed to, back East. (Something about the "West coast rip-off" I have been told about, besides.) Now, oil has taken a tumble. ..... History teacher long ago told us that in the '30s, you could buy a whole meal at a not-so-fancy restaurant for a quarter. ..... But with the gummint greasing the economy, DEFLATION doesn't seem like any kind of realistic prospect. These massive debt numbers leave me numb. What is the dollar worth, anymore? Two cents? Portfolio is down from the recent high by -15%. That's digestible, though not pleasant, of course. I moved a big chunk to bonds last year, and that helps, but bonds are still sinking along with everything else, notwithstanding.... Gonna send a small amount to BIAWX.
  • questions for board
    Lucky if back to even in 5 years but NOBODY knows. Many people will find they weren't comfortable with their current asset allocation. They will be re-balancing and pulling out of stocks as they get "back to even" or close to back to even so there will be major headwinds IMHO
  • Tweedy, Browne: "this is no time to go wobbly"
    Tweedy's newly-issued letter on markets and pandemics speaks sensibly. The firm reminds readers that it's more than a century old, so they have the experience to see occasional crashing-and-burning as part of the price of admission. They point out that the last 25 years has seen a long series of catastrophes - two currency meltdowns in the EMs, the Russian debt default, LTCM debacle, 9/11, the '07-09 GFC - and a market that's returned nearly 500%, cumulatively.
    I rather liked their conclusion:
    ... at times like this, we actually begin to feel better about our prospects for future returns. That said, our and your ability to have a successful investment experience depends in large part on the willingness to “stay on the bus.” The ride can be bumpy, but you ultimately have to stay on board to have any chance of reaching your destination. As Margaret Thatcher famously said to George Bush Sr. just before the start of the Kuwait War in 1990, “Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly.”
    On a passing note, I just been trying to add to my BIAWX holdings but thwarted by TD's $50 transaction fee. Their soon-to-be parent sells the fund NTF, so I'm trying to see if there's any flex available.
    Take care, David
  • questions for board
    One of the most aggressive "allocators" I have run across is American Association of Individual Investors "Level three" portfolio. James Cloonan spends an entire book trying to prove that there has never been a period longer than five years where the market has not recovered.
    I looked at SPY from it's peak in 2008 and discovered that in fact it took seven years if I remember. In the 1930s it took longer if you start at the very peak.
    70 % is probably too heavy a stock allocation that close to retirement if he needs to live on the assets at retirement. It is probably too late to do anything, but I think this will rival the drop in 2003-2009 which was 45% so if it will torture him in the next seven or more years he could lighten up stocks, but no one can tell him when.
    Will the market be higher sometime between now and when he retires? Probably but who knows?
    THE WSJ has a chart of the price at various levels of PE but no one knows what the E will be. We are also seeing a dramatic de risking so the PE will clearly fall
    I am on the pessimistic side and I think calls that this will be over in early summer are too optimistic. It may slow but will probably come back until their is an effective vaccine.
    Having said that there will probably be a better time to reduce his equity exposure in the months ahead
  • GP Global Micro Cap & International Opportunities Fund to reopen
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420006030/fp0051857_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 16, 2020 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND
    PROSPECTUS FOR THE GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL MICRO CAP FUND AND GRANDEUR
    PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND (EACH A "FUND," AND TOGETHER,
    THE "FUNDS") DATED AUGUST 31, 2019
    Effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund will reopen to shareholders who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in the Fund.
    Also, effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund will reopen through financial intermediaries to financial advisors who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants in existing retirement plans in the Fund. The Fund is also already open to both existing and new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • questions for board
    @johnN - Maybe you and your friend might benefit from reading this article today from Michelle Singletary at the Washington Post in her Personal Finance column.
    Where to Now
  • questions for board
    "He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement"
    NO ONE I repeat NO ONE can answer that question. Period. They can guess all they want but they would just be guessing.