@johnN - Maybe you and your friend might benefit from reading this article today from Michelle Singletary at the Washington Post in her Personal Finance column.
Where to Now

"He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement"
NO ONE I repeat NO ONE can answer that question. Period. They can guess all they want but they would just be guessing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-far-can-stocks-fall-coronavirus-market-turmoil-has-investors-asking-whats-priced-in-2020-03-15?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
How far can stocks fall? Coronavirus market turmoil has investors asking what’s priced in
The most brutal week on Wall Street since 2008 saw stocks complete their fastest ever fall from all-time highs to a bear market. Here’s how some investors are attempting to assess what’s priced in and where markets go from here.

Do not look so rosy.

Retail sales plunged 20.5% during January and February over the same period in 2019, industrial output was down 13.5%, and fixed asset investment fell by nearly 25%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. All three data points were much weaker than analysts were expecting, and the decline in industrial production was the sharpest contraction on record.
The data for March could be even worse.
"The slump in February was diluted in the data by being averaged with January, when most of the disruptions were yet to be felt," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics.

The Fed just shot their bolt. Or maybe they were giving a one finger salute to the White House and Capital Hill.
Let's get fiscal, fiscal
I want to get fiscal
Let's get into fiscal
Let me hear your policy talk, your policy talk
Let me hear your policy talk

A look at pre-market (9AM) issues for Treasury/corp. items:
--- SHY = (1-3 yr bills) +.3%
--- IEI = (3-7 yr notes) +1.2%
--- IEF = (7-10 yr notes) +1.9%
--- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond +4.3%
--- EDV = (Vanguard extended duration gov't) side ways all pre-market morning
--- LQD = (corp. bond proxy) -5%
Midnight/Monday found the most positive actions with most of these issues. The positive price gains at 9AM pre-market have dropped overnight.
Reference note: long term Treasury's were +11% range at 1am
I can't offer more, and will watch, too.

Hope you are good
my friend will retire in ~ 6 or 7 yrs, he lost 27% of porfolio past 4 wks. He is well diversified I think 70% stocks 30% bonds mostly in index and Target dated funds 2030
He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement
I told him maybe good to consider changing porfolio 6-12 months prior your retirement maybe heavy in bonds [like others did here when DOWS 28K or so RIGHT prior to crashes].
Any Ideas? 2023? IMHO - I think it may take awhile for this to recover few months and then we may have slow downs, maybe takes some times to market to recover/heal and start upswings again so could be 12-36 months before see DOWS 30K again. But we never know, it maybe there again in 6-8 months.

YTD Should one buy the big gapping declines of 4, 5 or 6% on a given day or abstain? Normally I’d say buy. But this global health issue throws us into unknown waters.

I was thinking about buying today, until the Fed, and the Pres, intervened.
Maybe tomorrow.
At this point I'm hoping the TP knuckleheads are on the sidelines contemplating their hoards so normal people can get what they need.

YTD DSENX lags the S&P by a couple points. But 2.5 months is too short a period to compare. My benchmark TRRIX (40/60) is down about 9% and I’m off another 1 percent more than it is this year. Both are manageable losses considering last year.
This is the point where it begins to get really dicey. Should one buy the big gapping declines of 4, 5 or 6% on a given day or abstain? Normally I’d say buy. But this global health issue throws us into unknown waters. Bloomberg quoted one analyst this morning as predicting that virtually every airline in the world will be facing bankruptcy by May. I find it hard to argue with that. Who wants to fly? The airlines’ woes are one reason oil is approaching its 2016 low of $26-$27.
Plenty of questions. Few answers. I guess Dalio and many other heggies have sustained a real beating this year.

last 11 days down ~12%, SP500 down ~10%, bond sauce aggravating things rather than the opposite

But oh, those monthly dividends just keep adding more shares.

All my figs are from M* graph of $10k growth, so includes divs, not that it is computed daily ...

I understand.
But one of the reasons I bought it was for the monthly dividends. Sort of like dollar cost averaging.

last 11 days down ~12%, SP500 down ~10%, bond sauce aggravating things rather than the opposite

But oh, those monthly dividends just keep adding more shares.

All my figs are from M* graph of $10k growth, so includes divs, not that it is computed daily ...

@davfor Oahu? You're just in time for the flooding from the Kona Low. 4:30 p.m. and finally some sunshine here on the Windward side.

Molokai. East end condo. There has been a Flash Flood alert for the past 24 hours or so but the weather has been OK here today. The view is across the Paniolo Channel to Maui (Kapalu and the surrounding part of the island). We owned a condo on Molokai for about 15 years that we sold in 2015 or 2016 (I have never had what is commonly called a good memory). I have been missing the old Hawaii slowed down feeling of this island. So, I am here for a short stay....probably will be back for a longer period next winter. (We also lived in Kauai and built a house there during the mid-80's.) You are in Honolulu, yes?
By the way, here are 2 Fed statements from today:
https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm
https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315c.htm

https://www.postandcourier.com/business/rebalancing-and-bonds-in-the-spotlight-amid-covid--stock/article_8e934848-6498-11ea-b75f-13ef6f4a420f.html
Rebalancing and bonds in the spotlight amid COVID-19 stock market turmoil
As the new coronavirus continued to spread this past week the entire nation of Italy ordered all stores except groceries and pharmacies to close, President Trump announced a ban on most travel from Europe and the stock market responded with the sharpest one-day selloff since 1987

We are in a bear market where most categories are down and correlation is up which means higher losses.
A one month (chart) shows that GLD + SPY(stocks) + BND(bond index) + PCI(CEF) + PIMIX (Multi) are all in a downtrend. BND+GLD only in a one-week downtrend.
The market is confused, dangerous with no solution or decision and the unknown is very high and why volatility is extreme too.
You can't quantify the coronavirus and that's a problem.
The conclusion: have some CASH/MM.
I went to a high % in cash on Feb 28 and since then I just trade.

Howdy,
No, so long as you can sleep at night. If you can't sleep, keep moving to cash until you can. Nothing else really matters.
There are a few around here that can remember 1987. I was a relatively new investor with deferred comp and back then you had so many restrictions on trading it, you were locked in. Whelp, in a year or so I was back to even. feh.
Geez, my wife was with Ma Bell, when the Iraq war broke out and the market puked. For her 401K at that time, they had a choice of 5 'in house' funds that you could only trade once a month effective the last day. feh, I used all her cash and bonds to buy all large cap market and sat it out.
It will come back. The only time you really need to be careful is when you're taking distributions from a fund and the principal takes a hit. This is where you have to be most careful. Otherwise, sit it out.
and so it goes,
peace, and Flatten the Curve,
rono

davidrmoran You're right. ICSH JPST also lost money. TRBUX was up slightly and BSV was up 1.41% ytd.

Yeah. As of tonight, BSV is up $173 ytd on $10k, AGG $233, BND $217, BOND only $79, with GSY, MINT, TIP all down b/w $10 and $73.
(Forget PONAX and PDVAX and such, down $500 plus or minus. DODIX and FTBFX down ytd $55 and $64.)
Meanwhile, SPAXX and FDRXX up $24 and $25, with FDMMX up $14.

Futs don't start pricing until 6 or 630PM ET. They were limit-down when I checked a few minutes ago.

When I checked the S&P futures at Finvis Futures earlier today the S&P was showing up 8% & change. Now it's showing down about -5%. Obviously a convincing vote of confidence in today's performance by our brilliant executive branch tweetership.

When I checked the S&P futures at Finvis Futures earlier today the S&P was showing up 8% & change. Now it's showing down about -5%. Obviously a convincing vote of confidence in today's performance by our brilliant executive branch tweetership.

Overheard in Washington: "Hrmm, that's not supposed to happen."
Buckle up. folks....Asia opens soon. And we're already limit-down on the US futures.

Dollar, Equity Futures Drop as Fed Slashes Rates (Bloomberg via Yahoo)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-extends-gains-fed-slashes-210909833.html

Futures on the S&P 500 fell 3.9%. The gauge advanced 9.3% on Friday.

Also because, as @PRESSmUP put it, "Smells like fear."

So what will happen to my bond funds now!?!? PRULX rocketed then last week dropped like a stone. Are they buying bonds with the QE?
So, do you remember that scene in Casino Royale where Dimitrios pushed all his chips in and then drops the keys to the DB5 on the pile? Then 007 cleans his clock and asks for the valet ticket...
Yeah, that's where we are now!

Dollar, Equity Futures Drop as Fed Slashes Rates (Bloomberg via Yahoo)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-extends-gains-fed-slashes-210909833.html

Futures on the S&P 500 fell 3.9%. The gauge advanced 9.3% on Friday.

Also because, as @PRESSmUP put it, "Smells like fear."