FYI: Global stocks were mostly up Thursday as investors awaited the next moves in the Brexit process, though sluggish Chinese economic data weighed on sentiment.
The Stoxx Europe 600 edged up 0.4% in early morning trade. In Asia, Chinese stocks registered steep falls.
On Wall Street, futures pointed to flat openings for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
In currencies, the WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was up 0.1%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 2.637% from 2.612% on Wednesday. Yields move inversely to prices.
In Asia, the weak Chinese numbers sent the Shanghai Composite down 1.2%. Stocks in Hong Kong and Japan were mostly flat.
In commodities, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 0.6% while gold prices fell 0.5%.
Regards,
Ted
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-shrug-off-weak-chinese-data-to-rise-11552553292
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-13/asia-stocks-to-rise-after-u-s-gains-pound-surges-markets-wrap
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-current-stock-market-rally-nasdaq-s-and-p-500-intel-stock-arista-mongodb/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/stock-market-dow-futures-in-focus-after-mixed-china-data.html
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-hit-five-month-high-after-no-deal-brexit-rejected-idUSKCN1QV10H
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-give-up-early-gains-on-weak-china-industrial-data-2019-03-13/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/treasury-yields-move-higher-despite-weak-us-china-data.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/forex-markets-dollar-moves-brexit-vote-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/oil-markets-global-supply-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/gold-markets-us-data-brexit-vote-dollar-moves-in-focus.html
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Gundlach conveniently ignores the significance of the junk bond market which has been making all times highs. It made an all time high 11 trading days in a row beginning on 2/15. It backed off just a tad for a few days but when today.’s data is posted ( the BA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index) it will shows all time highs again today the 13th. I can’t predict any better than the man in the moon but I would be very surprised if sooner than later the S&P will be following junk and making a new all time high.

FYI: There is some very good news for defense contractors.
The Department of Defense recently released its fiscal year 2020 budget, and spending is expected to hit $718 billion, about 6% higher than last year.
The increased spending supports sales growth targets for sector, and Wall Street has taken notice. Analysts like the entire sector. About 65% of the ratings on defense companies, such as Lockheed Martin (ticker: LMT), are “buys.” That is about 10 percentage points higher than the average for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
The message is clear: buy defense. In particular, Lockheed, Raytheon (RTN), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are three large contractors with strong support from the Street.
Regards,
Ted
M* Snapshot FSDAX:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FSDAX&region=usa&culture=en_US
Areospace & Defense ETFs:
https://www.thebalance.com/invest-in-the-aerospace-and-defense-industry-with-etfs-1215179

Perma bears are as dangerous of overly optimistic managers. Yes, when the bear eventually happens they strike gold but look at Hussman for example. It did make money in 2018 but over 3, 5, 10, 15 year horizons HSGFX has lost money. As smart as they might be they are very poor in predicting or in their fund management skills.

@BenWP Frank Bruni has a column in the NYTimes about how the playing field (for college admissions) isn't level due to the advantages wealth brings. Though he's writing more about parents who donate buildings or pay $50K for someone to guide a child's "career path" through junior and senior high to help get them into college. Not about the more mundane test coaching or tutors for school work.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/opinion/college-bribery-admissions.html
It's admirable that you recognize the difference money makes, even at this much lower level. Ultimately such a waste, because testing well on standardized tests has no practical use.
When I was in high school, my father put me up in a hotel room the night before an AP exam, because it would have taken me 1½ hours to get to the exam room otherwise. On the one hand one could argue that this was merely mitigating my disadvantage. On the other, it was still an advantage I got over others who also had to make the same trip. Though a difference here is that this was not a zero sum game. My doing well on an AP exam didn't mean someone else lost out.

OK, I revised the article to add the full-cycle comparisons requested by VintageFreak and to update the tables with month ending February performance ... so, the full 10 years.
The Ten-Year Bull
I made the full-cylce data for just the top bull market performers, but did not run best performers over full cycle, which seems like a different article. Easy enough to do though, so I'll post a sample here.

Hi Guys,
Nothing new here. The performance data remains very persistent in this arena. The few winners in any fund category in any year fail to repeat their outperformance success in the following years. Here is yet another reference that demonstrates that luck is a more significant factor when investing over skill:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-05/s-p-fund-manager-study-shows-luck-a-big-factor-in-outperformance
Newton's first law of motion states that "An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
This physical law also seems to apply to investing with an unpredictable infrequency exception of an “unbalanced force”. Good luck on predicting when this “unbalance” perturbation will happen. Over the long haul, being good in the investment universe is just a struggle to stay near the averages. That’s best accomplished by filling a portfolio with Index products.
That’s much easier and ultimately being more profitable then being skilled, and more likely than being lucky. I’m not a very lucky person. It’s hard not to be fooled by randomness,
Best Regards

FYI: Global stocks wavered on Wednesday as concerns around global growth weighed on investor sentiment and an impasse in the U.K. on a Brexit deal rippled across the European market.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.1% in early morning trading. U.S. futures pointed to opening losses of 0.5% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average of and 0.1% for the S&P 500.
Asian stocks were mostly lower with the Shanghai Stock Exchange down 1.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipping 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei dropping 1%.
In Europe, investors were digesting news from London overnight, where British lawmakers rejected a Brexit deal. Parliament is now set to vote on Wednesday on whether a hard Brexit, where the country barrels out of the EU without an agreement at the end of the month, must be avoided.
n Europe, investors were digesting news from London overnight, where British lawmakers rejected a Brexit deal. Parliament is now set to vote on Wednesday on whether a hard Brexit, where the country barrels out of the EU without an agreement at the end of the month, must be avoided.
The British pound was up 0.5% on the dollar and the euro Wednesday, following a 1% drop on Tuesday after the U.K.’s attorney general said Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal didn’t eliminate the risk that the U.K. would be stuck in a customs union with the bloc.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index, which is dominated by large international businesses, as well as its FTSE 250 were both nearly flat.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was broadly flat on Wednesday.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury edged up to 2.616%, from 2.605% on Tuesday. Yields move inversely to prices.
Elsewhere in commodities, global benchmark Brent crude oil was up 0.3% at $66.84 a barrel.
Regards,
Ted
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-poised-for-tepid-rise-but-dow-remains-under-pressure-amid-boeing-737-8-woes-2019-03-13/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-waver-as-brexit-growth-concerns-linger-11552467217
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/asia-stocks-set-for-mixed-start-pound-declines-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-apple-stock-microsoft-google-stock-market-ipo-stock/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/stock-markets-us-markets-focus-on-political-uncertainties-brexit.html
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-flat-as-brexit-impasse-sinks-in-idUSKBN1QU0YI
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-lower-amid-weight-of-global-uncertainties-2019-03-12/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/12/bonds-treasury-yields-move-higher-amid-optimism-over-brexit-deal.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/forex-markets-pound-moves-brexit-negotiations-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/oil-markets-saudi-oil-exports-us-inventory-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/gold-markets-dollar-moves-and-brexit-in-focus.html
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

“The founder of TPG Growth was among dozens of people charged by federal prosecutors in an alleged $25 million college admissions cheating scandal that has ensnared prominent financiers and Hollywood actors, among others. TPG said on Tuesday evening that it had placed William McGlashan, who is a managing partner at TPG Growth and co-founded The Rise Fund, a social and environmental impact fund, on indefinite administrative leave, effective immediately, “as a result of the charges of personal misconduct” against him.”
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1dht3kl4n0bvk/TPG-Growth-Founder-Among-Financiers-Charged-in-College-Bribery-Scandal
Related: One of Silicon Valley’s most prominent private equity investors — and one of the tech sector’s leading proponents of how to invest ethically and for social impact — has been charged in an explosive college admissions scandal that was revealed Tuesday, March 12. Prosecutors charged Bill McGlashan, a founder and managing partner at TPG Growth — which has made landmark investments in companies like Uber and Airbnb — on fraud allegations for trying to engineer the admission of his son to the University of Southern California. https://www.recode.net/2019/3/12/18262003/bill-mcglashan-college-admissions-scandal-tpg-stanford-usc-yale

I wasn't as clear as I could be. I was trying to compare Merrill Edge's best with Fidelity's "standard". Merrill only offers Blackrock and Federated MMFs. According to their latest rate sheet, the only MMF available for self-directed investors with less than $100K in cash is BPTXX. $5K min, 1.77% yield. Significantly less than SPAXX, but still beats their bank account default by well over 1½%.
https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf

Hi Guys,
Year after year the SPIVA reports persistently document the general failure of active fund management to even match the performance delivered by comparable Index products. It's a sad story.
Over a one year period many excepts do exist ( the Buffetts of the investment world), but even for that short period the odds are often below a 50% outperformance score. Over even a modest 3-year period, the active management outperformance drops to below a disappointing 20% outperformance record. Over longer periods, the failure rate goes north of 90%. Indeed a sad, sad story. Good luck on identifying those 20% that are superior before the fact.
A few of us have the intuition, the experience, and/or the statistical,analyses skills to successfully make that winning selection. From years of trying, I conclude that I do not. So, basically it's Index investing for me with a small fraction still in active management. I'm a slow and optimistic learner. Good luck to all MFO learners, both fast and slow.
Best Regards

Here are a few pages from Schwab about their plan. They (or other providers) can set up and manage a plan for you.
DB plans can be very useful for tax purposes, generally for high earners over age 50. The reason for that age is that since these are pension plans, the value of the plan at retirement must be enough to sustain the promised pension. The fewer the years until retirement, the more you can/must put into the plan annually to build up to that value. If you've got many years until retirement, you may find the amount you're allowed to contribute limited (since there's a cap on how large your pension can be).
A couple of caveats excerpted from the first Schwab page:

• Contributions are generally required annually, and this plan is suited for someone who can contribute $80,000 or more for several years. Note: Contributions are not discretionary—you must make the annual required contributions needed to properly fund the plan.
• [D]ue to the permanency requirement, the IRS could disqualify the plan if it is terminated in less than five years

https://www.schwab.com/public/file/P-1604569/SLS25840-05-ST.pdf
Q&A Guide: https://www.schwab.com/public/file/P-1604574/MKT35488_WB.pdf
FAQs:
https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/small_business_retirement/personal_defined_benefit_plan/personal_defined_benefit_plan_faqs
Schwab plan/setup/costs:
https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/small_business_retirement/personal_defined_benefit_plan (multiple tabs)
A plain English article from the NYTimes with its own set of benefits and risks. In addition to the caveats above, it points out that because defined benefit plans are pension plans, they (like state pension plans) may be required to add extra money beyond what they planned for if the investments don't perform as well as expected. (Amounts in article are from 2012.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/your-money/defined-benefit-plans-allow-fast-retirement-saving-but-with-risks.html

FYI: Year after year, when the outlook for equity markets looks uncertain, professional money managers say this could be the year for stock pickers. And year after year it isn’t.
The perennial S&P Indices vs. Active Report—also known as Spiva—released on Monday showed that 2018 was the fourth-worst year for U.S. stock fund managers since 2001.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-pickers-returns-lagged-benchmarks-in-2018-51552381200?refsec=funds
SPIVA Year End 2018: (Upper Left)
https://eu.spindices.com/resource-center/thought-leadership/research/

Related
JP Morgan is about to launch lowest-fee US stock market ETF — lower than Vanguard, BlackRock and Sch
johnNjohnN
5:48AM in Fund Discussions
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/jp-morgan-about-to-launch-lowest-fee-us-stock-market-etf-yet.html
Published Mon, Mar 11 2019 • 1:37 PM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 11 2019 • 4:58 PM EDT
Eric Rosenbaum
@erprose
Key Points
J.P. Morgan is about to launch the JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Equity ETF with a fee of 0.02 percent.
That makes the broad U.S. stock market fund cheaper than similar ETFs from Vanguard, Schwab and BlackRock’s iShares.
Schwab and iShares had offered the cheapest U.S. stock market ETFs, charging 0.03 percent .
J.P. Morgan has grown to become one of the largest ETF companies in only a few years, primarily by selling ETFs to its own clients.

Hi @poptart
I forgot about lsbrx for income... Several mfo members owed this fund before, I have it since 2012..good reasonable fund to have for nice monthly income
Just some personalize thoughts being in market for 12 yrs now :
I do hold fidelity total bond market Fbnd and Phk in mom portfolios she is few months from retirement plannings
In my acct I have bnd - Vanguard total bond market
At 35 yo I would do 80 to 90% stocks portfolio in my holdings to reap most rewarding to long terms investments lol... You still have a long way to go +35 or 40yrs until retirement ... I would not change nor touch portfolio too much maybe once every few yrs.. Being couched and iddle maybe best for you and invest more in indexes stocks.. At least this is what buffet and boggle keep on preachings for many years
For my tsp 401k I have 80/20 since started investing in 2007 (right before the largest crash in modern time),,, have not changed portfolio much since 2007 and I am doing very well with those positions and holdings... Currently still >80%stocks <20%bonds
For 401k-tsp biggest holdings
Indexes from tsp 80% large cap mid cap small cap and em divided evenly
10% 2040 maturity fund Tdf
10% G bond
Brk.b another large holdings
Vgstx
Vppcm Vanguard prime cap
Another thing if you have 1099 return forms (most investment company have these for their portfolio for tax purposes if you have div incomes from bonds or MF ETFs)
you maybe able qualified to open sep-ira acct, we have this since few yrs now, this acct works exactly as regular-Ira but you can put in 20%of your income and maxed out at 55k annually... the best thing is you can have this along w tsp(private 401k if working for govt) and regular 401k. You may save lots tax money once able to retired many yrs from Now and just let those money grow taxed free... Just do research and ask ur cpa at your institution before starting... I highly recommend having Sep-ira + roth Ira... We saved so much in taxation $$ past 3 yrs now
Good luck

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/787623/000119312519070690/d688936d497.htm
497 1 d688936d497.htm 497 TRANSAMERICA MULTI-CAP GROWTH FUND
TRANSAMERICA FUNDS
Transamerica Multi-Cap Growth
Supplement to the Currently Effective Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses
The Board of Trustees has approved a reorganization pursuant to which the assets of Transamerica Multi-Cap Growth (the “Target Fund”), a series of Transamerica Funds, would be acquired, and its liabilities would be assumed, by Transamerica US Growth (the “Acquiring Fund”), a series of Transamerica Funds, in exchange for shares of the Acquiring Fund. The Target Fund would then be liquidated, and shares of the Acquiring Fund would be distributed to the Target Fund shareholders.
Under the reorganization, Target Fund shareholders would receive shares of the Acquiring Fund with the same aggregate net asset value as their shares of the Target Fund. It is anticipated that no gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes would be recognized by Target Fund shareholders as a result of the reorganization.
The reorganization does not require shareholder approval, but is subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. An information statement describing the reorganization will be mailed to Target Fund shareholders in advance of the closing of the reorganization. If the closing conditions are satisfied, the reorganization is expected to occur on or about May 31, 2019. Prior to the reorganization, shareholders can continue to purchase, redeem and exchange shares of the Target Fund subject to the limitations described in the Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses.
* * *
Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
March 11, 2019

https://money.usnews.com/investing/slideshows/7-tips-for-finding-the-best-target-date-retirement-funds-to-buy?src=usn_invested_nl
7 Tips for Finding Target-Date Retirement Funds
March 11, 2019
One in three Americans have nothing – zilch – saved for retirement. That's not OK. If you're financially able, you need to start saving, today. A retirement nest egg is vital for a full, happy, and healthy life.
Once you start saving, choosing where to invest your money is another hassle. Thankfully, retirement funds have made this much easier for investors, and target-date retirement funds, which adjust their holdings as you age to suit your changing risk profile, are even easier. Contrary to public perception, figuring out how to invest responsibly isn't rocket science.
Here are seven tips to finding the best target-date retirement funds for you.
1. Figure out your timeline. This is generally the easiest and most crucial variable to consider when narrowing down what kind of target-date funds will work for you. Most target-date funds contain a year in their name, which corresponds to the year you expect to retire. If you're 45 and expect to retire at 65, pick a target-date fund roughly 20 years out. They're often organized into five-year increments, so in this case you might consider a 2040 target-date retirement fund. There are also target-date funds designed for those currently in retirement.
2. Figure out your risk tolerance. Remember, target-date funds are designed to be full portfolios, so if you have other investments, consider how those might affect the total risk you're taking. For example, if you already have a good chunk of money in the stock market, you might want to lean more conservative than you otherwise would, choosing funds with less equity exposure, or funds that move to lower-risk investments more quickly than others. – John DIvine

From this 85 year old, I would go with SCHB. https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/SCHB/quote.html

FYI: As great as things were for the DJIA when Boeing (BA), with its high price and weighting in the index, was on the way up, today the DJIA is feeling the pain of what happens when a high priced (weighted) stock in the index declines. With shares of Boeing set to open down over 10% this morning, its decline is set to have a negative impact of around 250 points (or 1%) at the open. Outside of BA, US equities are generally indicated higher following the lead of both positive starts to the week in Asia and Europe.
Regards,
Ted
No Link:

The range of total return for funds mentioned ranges from 59-68% from a start date of Jan., 2014. SPY is included only as a reference point.
Funds mentioned above, chart:
Not knowing if the potential investment is a taxable account, tax efficiency may be a consideration.