Not directly related ... But the “talking heads” this morning (Bloomberg) appear to be on steroids. Or maybe caffeine overdose? “Primal screaming” cited by one re yesterday’s trading. LOL
What happened yesterday?
- 30 year treasury bond came to life and bounced significantly higher. But is still under 2%. Interest sensitive intermediate-term (and longer) bond funds took a small hit. Mine were off between .33 & .50%. Looks like the less creditworthy issues held up somewhat better.
- “Dots” not yet connected by the pundits ... with the U.S. bond market closed today, some of the interest rate momentum upward yesterday was in anticipation of not being able to trade today - and with equity markets open.
- The more aggressive equity growth funds seemed to get hit hardest - although TSLA gained 4% following a recent 10% down day. TRBCX dropped 1.4% as one example. Precious metals and miners spiked.
- For once, movement across asset / fund classes in my portfolio was similar - with the moderate growth portion losing .40%, The investment grade paper was off .20%. The 3 alternatives combined fell about .30% in combination.
- HSGFX gained .49% putting it about break-even for the year.(I don’t own it.).
- To the crux of the OP, it’s probably a combination of baked-in inflation and transitory coming from temporary supply / labor shortages. I’m not expecting 6+ % annual “official” inflation over the next few years (using CPI figures). Admittedly, a fool’s errand to try and predict what inflation will be in the next 1-3 years.
- TAIL, which I’ve owned only a few weeks, has around 90% in LT treasuries and most of the remainder in “puts” on selected components of the S&P - if I understand correctly. That’s why it struggled yesterday, losing about a half percent. Time will tell how much of a drag that bond exposure is during major downturns. I view it as a short - intermediate term hedge. Could “screw the pooch” with this one. :)
- TMSRX held its own. Lost a penny or two.
- PRWCX held up remarkably well (-.42%). Giroux’s high cash level and avoidance of long term bonds paid off.
- Miners look hot again today. Up around 2% in pre-markets. Can flip on a dime. The more broadly based miners (like NGLOY) are screaming hot this morning.
- DKNG? / NY State granted it permission to operate in the state along with 5-6 competing outfits. But revenue will be taxed at 51%. I guess the news broke Friday, the same day I unloaded my small spec position. Looks like it’s off between 5-8% since than.

Found this excerpt in 11/9/21 WSJ titled, "Semiconductor Industry Isn’t Spending Big on Scarce Old-Tech Chips."
The article mentions that ASML is the only producer of the industry’s most advanced lithography equipment, is fully booked through the start of 2023.
ASML closed down $32.20 to $817.85 this evening.

PDF
"In doing their outreach to "domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others" (financial and business sector actors), most respondents were concerned with the interactions of several categories of risk:
° a worsening of the pandemic,
° a sudden surge in interest rates,
° a significant reduction in the pace of the ongoing economic recovery,
° risks emanating from China, other EMEs, and Europe."

CEOs of other high flying stocks are also selling. Evidently, AMC CEO sold 1/4th of his holding and has filed to sell another 1/4th.

+1.

@Crash - 1 year return is 55%. You are quoting YTD.

"The good news is that if you believe that innovation in climate technology is set to take off, the investment industry has introduced a raft of new funds globally. The bad news is that many are unproven and much more volatile than diversified equity funds. Twelve of the 29 funds exhibited below were introduced in the last three years. Climate tech funds with at least a three-year track record have an average three-year standard deviation of 29.5 versus 18.4 for the Vanguard 500 fund."
"In addition, investment funds must own publicly traded companies. But there are very few of these, relative to privately held companies, and they are concentrated in competitive industries such as solar-panel manufacturing and mining commodities such as lithium."
Link

I don't plan on putting more than 10% into these funds altogether.
I excluded CNRG from my final list because of its youth, the nearly 5% stake in Tesla, and a nearly 8% weight in China. Its three year return has been superior to the funds I chose above. OTOH, I am specifically interested in a more diverse global lineup than CNRG provides.

@JD_co & @MikeM
Thanks for the pointers. Will check them out. TAIL gained over 20% in Qtr. 1 2020. (Guess that met the definition of a collapse.). I’ve had it 2-3 weeks and it looked rock steady. But didn’t hold up well today.
Compared to the inverse Dow (DOG), which I played around with, TAIL has been less volatile over the time it’s been in existence. I’d agree with @JD_co that it’s not going to make you money in decent markets. FWIW - Here’s a cut & paste of its strategy:
“The Cambria Tail Risk ETF seeks to mitigate significant downside market risk. The Fund intends to invest in a portfolio of "out of the money" put options purchased on the U.S. stock market. TAIL strategy offers the potential advantage of buying more puts when volatility is low and fewer puts when volatility is high.”
TAIL
Side note: Musk wanted to sell some Tesla. But didn’t want to “spook” the market. So he set up this Twitter gig to make it look as if he were being coerced into selling by his loyal followers. (There are reports his brother sold a big chunk the prior day.). The market didn’t buy it. Now - push hard on the sky-high technology sector and it can set in motion a whole chain of unwanted consequences.

+1 old joe

I have been looking into these for my wife's accounts. And Tesla can be an issue depending on the underlying index. Given the recent runup These are fund whose returns aren't so heavily influenced by Tesla.
Descriptions are from etf.com. For various categories of energy I'm looking at:
PBD

passively managed to invest in a wide array of global renewable energy companies, including those involved in conservation, improving energy efficiency and advancing renewable energy. The index may invest in large cap firms and those that derives at least 10% of its market value from clean energy activities, but has bias on pure-play, small- and midcap companies. Importantly, PBD’s portfolio companies are selected based on the index provider’s opinion of their “potential for capital appreciation.” In that sense, PBD is more akin to an actively managed strategy than other funds in the segment. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly. For diversification, the fund caps its largest holdings at 5% and is required to invest half its assets internationally.

ICLN

ICLN invests in global clean energy companies, which is defined as those involved in the biofuels, ethanol, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind industries. Aside from holding companies that produce energy through these means, ICLN also includes companies that develop technology and equipment used in the process. Selected by the index committee, the fund is weighted by market-cap and exposure score — subject to several constraints — and reconstituted semi-annually. Prior to April 19, 2021, the index followed a more narrow methodology.

Both are down this year. But that's a feature for me. Ten year returns seem reasonable compared to traditional utilities. There isn't much overlap in their top ten holdings anyway. They weight sectors differently. Neither has much exposure to China. Another feature as far as I am concerned.
Then there is GRID.

GRID is concentrated fund targeting global equities determined to be in the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector as determined by Clean Edge. The fund includes companies that are either Pure Play — more than 50% revenues or Diversified — less than 50% revenues are derived from the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector. The sector may include business in electric grid, electric meters and devices, networks, energy storage and management, and enabling software. GRID also screens for minimum liquidity and market cap. To enhance exposure to the smart grid market, the index provider uses a tiered weighting scheme. Securities are initially market cap weighted. Then a collective weight of 80% for Pure Play and 20% for Diversified are allocated. The Index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarter.

GRID is on the MFOpremium Honor Roll. Lipper/Refinitiv lists it as global infrastructure.
I am also looking at three water funds:
CGW

The fund starts with all eligible securities from the S&P Global BMI Index that are classified in either water equipment & materials or water utilities & infrastructure cluster. To identify industry relevance, each company from both clusters will be assigned an exposure score based on its business description and most recent reported revenue. The 25 largest companies with an exposure score of 1 from each cluster will be selected for inclusion. However, if fewer than 25 companies have an exposure score of 1, the fund will select the largest companies with a 0.5 exposure score until the portfolio contains a total of 25 constituents for each cluster. Stocks are weighted by market-cap within each bucket and are constrained, such that securities with an exposure score of 1 are capped at 10% and those with 0.5 exposure score are capped at 5%. Index rebalancing occurs semi-annually.

PIO

The fund's (ironically appropriate) liquidity-weighting scheme produces a concentrated portfolio that only loosely resembles our market-cap-weighted benchmark. PIO is dominated by large- to midcap firms that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. Also, only companies participating in the “Green Economy” as determined by SustainableBusiness.com LLC are eligible for inclusion. The index currently limits weighting in both the country and issuer level, to ensure diversification between constituents. Lastly, it is important to note that the fund uses a “full replication” method to track the underlying index. Rebalancing is done quarterly while reconstitution is done annually.

FIW

FIW holds 36 of the largest US-listed water companies, ranked by market cap and weighted equally within five tiers. Companies of any market capitalization that derive revenue from the potable and wastewater industry are selected. In addition, its tiered equal-weighting scheme boosts the weight of small- and micro-cap companies, hence, reducing concentration. FIW changed its name from First Trust ISE Water Index Fund to First Trust Water ETF on December 14, 2016, which had no impact to FIW's investment strategy. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted semi-annually.

Still not too much overlap for me.
I check out holdings and weights using this link to the old M* data:format
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=fsmex&region=usa&culture=en-US
Just replace the FSMEX with the code you want to look up.

Looks like some of these opiod-pushers are going to get away with it: https://reuters.com/business/oklahoma-court-overturns-465-million-opioid-award-against-johnson-johnson-2021-11-09/
Good for pharma stocks, bad for Americans overall.

Why would it be worth jumping through all of those hoops just to buy 10k/yr?

Thank you. Gold is trending upward this week as inflation increases; announced 6.1% this morning.
Not a hedge but letting the cash invested in VTIP and bank loan funds.

This commentary discusses the unusual combination of factors that are impacting the current spike in inflation and the implications for potential Fed responses. The nature of the combination is thought to limit the effectiveness of the tools the Fed has to respond to them. That may at least in the near term slow the Feds pivot to implementation of rate hikes.
The Risks Are Two-Tailed

Everything that goes up must come down at some point.
Also, keep in mind Tesla rose exponentially prior to its stock split which occurred in August 2020. From an article I read which stated:
When Tesla announced the split to when it actually happened at the end of the month, shares rose 81%. The Board announced the stock split on August 11, 2020.

I’m not surprised, @TheShadow. I little style drift is OK, but TSLA in a SC fund? Yesterday TSLA declined 12% dragging some Baron funds down. At one point in recent months, TSLA represented 47% of Baron Partners. I believe Twillo came crashing back to earth recently. There may be something to be learned from the story of Icarus.

+1 above post & comment.

Thanks for the reply @stillers. Most importantly, yes the Bills now have me very worried with NE starting to play consistently well. The Bills O-line was down 2 starters and they were the #1 reason for the loss against Jax. Allen was under siege on every play and when that happens he starts making bone-head plays. The 2 remaining games against the Patriots will be pivotal for who wins the division. Hence, my 2nd favorite team next weekend will be the Browns!
Yes, I noticed the big opening spikes FDRV has had. Once bought (w/a limit order of course) the technology is obviously a long term holding, so buying at 28, 29 or even 30 probably won't matter much in 5 years.