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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    For the week the three best performing areas within my portfolio were found in commodities, emerging markets and a dividend payer. My funds held representing these areas were PCLAX +1.91% ... NEWFX +1.64% & DWGAX +1.59% ... and, SVAAX +1.26%. In comparison, the equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund VADAX, that I sometimes use for equity ballast, was +0.70% for the week.
    Linked below are the Lipper Indexes. You can view to find the leaders.
    http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3020-lipperindx.html
    Wondering what worked best for you?
    Have a good weekend.
    Old_Skeet
  • Jason Zweig: Wall Street Has It Wrong. You’re A Smart Investor.
    FYI: For decades, Wall Street has claimed that professional investors are “the smart money” and individuals “the dumb money.” That’s been one of the most cynically lucrative propaganda campaigns in history, with billions of dollars in fees and commissions flowing to people who didn’t turn out to be smart at all.
    Investors on Main Street are nowhere near as naive as Wall Street has long contended. That’s the finding of recent research that casts new doubt on the distinction between smart and dumb money.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-has-it-wrong-youre-a-smart-investor-11550851234
  • Q&A With Charles Shriver, Manager, T.Rowe Price Balanced & Personal Strategy Growth Funds
    FYI: Charles Shriver earned his college degree in economics and rhetoric, otherwise known as the art of persuasive speaking. You win by “lining up your facts,” says Shriver, who runs about $40 billion across several portfolios at T. Rowe Price .
    The facts line up well in Shriver’s case. Both the $4 billion T. Rowe Price Balanced fund (ticker: RPBAX) and the $2 billion T. Rowe Price Personal Strategy Growth fund (TRSGX) beat their respective Morningstar-assigned benchmarks and at least 85% of peer funds over the past three years through January. The more conservative Balanced fund returned 9.4% annually in that span, while the more aggressive Personal Strategy Growth returned 11.4% a year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/reits-amazon-com-and-other-pockets-of-growth-51550880847?mod=hp_DAY_5
  • Barron’s Ranking Of Best Online Brokers
    FYI: Market volatility is commonplace. Interest rates, which a few months ago seemed certain to rise, now look likely to remain flat or possibly decline. The chances of an economic slowdown in the U.S. and overseas are high. So it’s tempting to follow the S&P 500, our own portfolios, and investment opportunities the way some of us check the weather—constantly and doggedly.
    Online discount brokerage firms are happy to accommodate. They provide mobile apps that let customers monitor, analyze, and trade, often with the same speed, ease, and completeness as a desktop, and with complete interoperability. Live video and television feeds are now ubiquitous on desktop and mobile. A few brokerage firms have even begun to furnish information and research via Alexa and Siri. One, TD Ameritrade Holding (ticker: AMTD), recently added the ability to trade through Amazon Echo.
    How They Stack Up
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-are-2019s-best-online-brokers-51550882807?mod=hp_DAY_2
  • What Gabelli Funds Does Mario Buy?
    FYI: For decades, Mario Gabelli, one of the premier investors of our age. has regaled the Barron’s Roundtable with his insights, wit, and banter.
    Gabelli, however, has been reticent about the funds he holds himself, both of the open- and closed-end varieties. But a perusal of public records shows that he personally owns significant stakes in several closed-end offerings of his Gabelli Funds. Indeed, in some cases, he’s the biggest shareholder. And his largest investments are an interesting and eclectic mix.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-gabelli-funds-does-mario-buy-51550858564?mod=hp_DAY_5
  • 1 Fund Avoided The Kraft Heinz Stock Bloodbath And It’s Because Of ESG Investing: NULG) - (NULV)
    FYI: Kraft Heinz stock (KHC) was down more than 27% on Friday after the company took a $15 billion asset write down, cut its dividend, and disclosed a regulatory probe into its procurement and accounting practices. The stock was downgraded by five Wall Street analysts, too.
    That’s a bad day.
    Some big names have been caught up in the Kraft vortex, including Warren Buffett and private-equity firm 3G Capital. But one fund manager steered clear of this week’s Kraft Heinz bloodbath: Nuveen Asset Management. Nuveen avoided the decline for a unique reason: It shunned Kraft Heinz stock because the company has weak scores in ESG, the sustainable investing philosophy that looks at, and is short for, environmental, social, and governance metrics. Kraft Heinz isn’t the only high profile stock debacle Nuveen has managed to avoid. Nuveen’s ESG philosophy should give investors something to think about when assessing corporate risk in the future.
    Nuveen offers a few exchanged traded funds for U.S. investors, including the NuShares ESG Large-Cap Growth Fund (NULG) and NuShares ESG Large-Cap Value Fund (NULV). In those funds, Nuveen only invests in companies that are in the upper half of a sector based on Nuveen’s ESG scoring.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/esg-nuveen-asset-management-kraft-heinz-stock-51550862080?mod=djem_b_Weekly barrons_daily_newsletter
  • M*: You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize
    @Sven you are right and there are some people going around to get rid of that minimal FDA oversight as well. Regulations are there to protect the public but companies have money to buy politicians. As long as we have corporate money in politics, needs of the public becomes secondary.
    Anyway, steering back to topic. I used to think 50 US/50 International portfolio was an appropriate one and some people were even suggesting a larger percentage for international. I think with the exposure of US companies in international markets, I would consider 60/40 a reasonable portfolio.
  • Josh Brown & Michael Batnick: The Two-Fund Portfolio: Video Presentation
    Yes this is a simple portfolio but Maximum drawdown should give an investor an idea of how much they can stand to lose. A lot of people have much less loss tolerance than they imagine probably because they have no idea what to expect. They are surprised and they quit the market losing the recovery.
    After 2008 crash which was pretty bad, a 40 stock/60% short term bond portfolio recovered in about 2 years (assuming re-balancing). But that portfolio has a maximum draw down around 20-25%.
  • MFAIX -- anyone kicked the tires?
    MikeW: Checked buy at Schwab, 5 million $ !!!
    Derf
  • Stash your cash in bond ETFs

    (1) ... but we don’t even talk about recent buys or sells anymore.... “
    (2) “... can’t we play in the sandbox a little nicer?”
    Thanks for the comments @Graust. I won’t even try to defend the politics that seeps in. It’s indefensible - but also hard to avoid in the current political climate.
    (1) As to fewer trades, I’ve noticed it too. Couple thoughts: The group of perhaps 25-35 regulars who post often are growing older and more conservative. Heck, I can think of 2 or 3 who’ve gotten out of the market completely in the past six months. They still have a great deal to offer here - but trading funds isn’t where they are anymore. Other oldsters like myself are still investing in the market, but trading a lot less as a means of reducing risk. My most aggressive holdings nowadays tend to be balanced funds (the more boring the better). And I’ve stopped making speculative bets on beaten-up sectors because there’s a very real chance I wouldn’t live long enough to see them come to fruition.
    Another factor - We’ve just experienced a 10-20% stock market correction (depending on the index). That experience has, I think, dulled the “animal spirits” a bit. Folks after something like that become more risk averse for a while afterwards. That may be another reason why there’s less talk about buying / selling than 6 months or a year ago. There are some nice exceptions. @Puddenhead posts occasionally about trading for quick profits. I always enjoy his “longneck” ramblings. And @Old_Skeet does a real nice job weekly dissecting his approach and telling you which sectors he likes or dislikes and why. Lest I forget, @MikeM too is always looking for an edge and mentions his buys / sells from time to time. No doubt there are others I’m omitting. Apologies to them.
    (2) Re the sandbox - Unfortunately, it just takes one child peeing in it and throwing sand to ruin it for everyone.
  • MFAIX -- anyone kicked the tires?
    Was curious if anyone had done some due diligence on this fund. I've been running the numbers on MFO Premium and its risk adjusted performance is impressive over the 1, 3, and 5 year time frames. Also held up well in the October-December selloff. It looks like a winner to me. Top performer in International Growth category and available for no load at Schwab. Looking to add this fund as well as ARTJX as my new international holdings.
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    I've also never heard of buying a mutual fund at a discount unless like @JoJo26 implied, you are saying you don't have to pay loads on A-shares for certain families. If so, that is not unique. A share loads are waved at many brokerages like Schwab, probably Fidelity and probably others.

    Yep, Fidelity too. Just from my experience, frequently looking up A shares there, I'd rough-guesstimate something like 3/4 of commonly held/traded A shares are load waived. As far as ETFs go, there's a long list that don't even charge the usual $4.95 commission on exchange-traded products.
    OS's note that "under certain circumstance load funds can be purchased at discounts; and, in some cases at nav" apparently refers to partial to fully waived loads on load shares. Unless there are some very rare outliers, there's no such thing as a partial load waiver on A shares at Fidelity, and I assume Schwab.
    Whatever broker Skeet's working with now, it sounds like a migration to Fidelity or Schwab would do him a world of good. That's the takeaway I get from this thread.
    We're just looking out for you @Old_Skeet. It seriously sounds like you're paying a lot of fees that are not necessary whether it be wraps, loads, advisory, etc. IMO, if you can't simply determine what you're paying in total fees, then you're likely paying too much.
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    I've also never heard of buying a mutual fund at a discount unless like @JoJo26 implied, you are saying you don't have to pay loads on A-shares for certain families. If so, that is not unique. A share loads are waved at many brokerages like Schwab, probably Fidelity and probably others.
    Yep, Fidelity too. Just from my experience, frequently looking up A shares there, I'd rough-guesstimate something like 3/4 of commonly held/traded A shares are load waived. As far as ETFs go, there's a long list that don't even charge the usual $4.95 commission on exchange-traded products.
    OS's note that "under certain circumstance load funds can be purchased at discounts; and, in some cases at nav" apparently refers to partial to fully waived loads on load shares. Unless there are some very rare outliers, there's no such thing as a partial load waiver on A shares at Fidelity, and I assume Schwab.
    Whatever broker Skeet's working with now, it sounds like a migration to Fidelity or Schwab would do him a world of good. That's the takeaway I get from this thread.
  • . Sorry dupp
    @johnN: You need to make certain that your article has not already been linked. Main stream websites like M* articles have generally already been linked. Please look before you leap, or take a break from linking.
    Regards,
    Ted :(
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/47765/m-can-you-index-municipal-bonds#latest
    Will never understand why you need to call people out, @Ted. At least the many others that share links share relevant, quality ones versus bombarding the board with garbage.
  • . Sorry dupp
    @johnN: You need to make certain that your article has not already been linked. Main stream websites like M* articles have generally already been linked. Please look before you leap, or take a break from linking.
    Regards,
    Ted :(
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/47765/m-can-you-index-municipal-bonds#latest
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    Lots of T. Rowe Price funds made money last year (2018). In addition to the five listed were several bond and allocation funds (and a couple more domestic equity funds). That goes to @Derf 's point that cash and fixed income did better than equity last year.
    This is just another column tossing out junk statistics and not even doing its homework. The two other Price equity funds (albeit institutional funds) that had positive returns were: TRLGX (you can get the same manager via HNASX), and TPLGX (likely a clone of TRBCX).
    I resemble that remark. Can’t recall seeing my TRBUX (ultra-short bond fund) on that list of 5. Failure to take note of that omission may signal how gravely concerned I am about all this. :)
    Thanks @msf for lifting some of the curtain (err ... shroud?) here.
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    Lots of T. Rowe Price funds made money last year (2018). In addition to the five listed were several bond and allocation funds (and a couple more domestic equity funds). That goes to @Derf 's point that cash and fixed income did better than equity last year.
    This is just another column tossing out junk statistics and not even doing its homework. The two other Price equity funds (albeit institutional funds) that had positive returns were: TRLGX (you can get the same manager via HNASX), and TPLGX (likely a clone of TRBCX).
    What's the point in saying that fewer than half the managers who beat the S&P 500 did so by more than 4.38% (i.e. had positive returns)? When your manager beats his (or her) benchmark, do you complain that the fund outperformed by only 3%? Do you expect, in a good year or bad year for the market, half the managers who outperform to do so by over 4%? This is silly.
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    (1) Value investing had a poor year in ‘18, following a long period of underperformance. Beginning to look as though that may have been the “blow off” stage of the value cycle as they’re hot so far this year. To some extent in ‘18 you were better off putting on a blindfold and buying indexes than in evaluating companies. To the extent Price favors a value approach and does a lot of due diligence, having done their homework may have hurt their numbers in ‘18.
    (2) Another factor - Price tends to be more aggressive with their significant number of allocation funds than others. RPSIX, for example, can hold around 10% in PRFDX (a stock fund). If you compare RPSIX to less aggressive “income” funds during a down year for equities it will lag. Their retirement funds are also known for having glide slopes that keep investors in equities further out than many others. More equities in a down year spells lower return.
    (3) Price includes a bit of PRAFX (real assets) in many allocation funds. In fact, PRAFX was first developed for in-house use in their allocation funds and than later offered to the public. Commodities, energy, & real estate were poor places to be in ‘18. However, if this year’s trend continues it will pay investors in real assets for their patience.
    At first I couldn’t see commenting on this one. A single year says very little about the quality of a firm. Since some have found it worthwhile, I wanted to add my 2-cents. All that being said, I do like to diversify management risk. As now stands, Price has about 50% with the other 50% divided up among Dodge & Cox, Oppenheimer, and Permenant Portfolio. I’m much more accustomed to fending off criticism of the latter two (especially PRPFX) than I am of T. Rowe. Some day I may have 100% with Price for ease of managing my assets and because of their great customer service.
  • Templeton Bond Chief Stands Firm On Bearish Bet Against Treasuries: (TPINX)
    FYI: One of the biggest contrarians in the bond market is holding firm to a long-held wager that Treasury yields are poised to break out even as global growth fears turbocharge the opposing side of the trade.
    Franklin Templeton bond chief Michael Hasenstab remains steadfast in his conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year -- putting him at odds with the futures market and the growing raft of Wall Street voices fretting a brewing U.S. downturn.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/templeton-bond-chief-stands-firm-on-bearish-bet-against-treasuries-43419.html?print
    M* Snapshot TPINX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TPINX/quote.html
    Lipper Snpshot TPINX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tpinx
    TPINX Is Ranked #15 In The (WB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-bond/templeton-global-bond-fund/tpinx