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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Hi Folks - I’m willing to allocate a small amount to alternative funds in the current exuberant market (currently 10%). And an even smaller amount to a gold fund (1-2%), which is another form of alternative investment. But please understand (1) I’m deep into the retirement / draw-down years and (2) I probably have accumulated enough $$ to last my remaining lifetime.
    What some don’t grasp is that at a very advanced age it takes just 1 devastating year to wipe out 25-50% of one’s lifetime savings. While (as many like to point out) the odds of such an event are relatively small (you odds-makers can calculate the likelihood), if it happens to someone 75 or older it’s unlikely they’ll recover that sum in their lifetime. So you need to understand that some old farts here are being extra cautious in the prevailing climate. Going to all-cash doesn’t sound like any fun. And I think one can still pull 2, 3 or even 4% a year better than a money market or CD over shorter periods - even conservatively positioned. As I’ve often pointed out, those under 60 (and @Ted still thinks he is) probably should be investing in good plain vanilla low-fee growth funds.
    The funds in JohnN’s post appear to be bear market funds. That’s 1 type of alternative - but by no means the entire domain. And a bear-fund to me is suicidal unless you really can foresee the future. Hussman is the best advertisement for an alternative fund which attempted to foresee the future and fell into the bear trap. HSGFX has sported dismal returns since inception. John H’s crystal ball clearly was defective. Maybe Amazon will take it back.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Me bad ! I don't have time for a 1 hour 15 minute presentation.
    :( :( :(
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Ted...obviously you didn't watch the video. All of these issues are discussed in detail. The main point is that a reverse mortgage is a financial tool that might help retirees avoid sequence of return risk. This strategy increases final Inheritance (total net worth). One would open the reverse mortgage at 62 (pay the set up fees), have a small principal balance (As little as $50) and let the line of credit grow. It is the line of credit (available in a reverse mortgage) that one would want to tap (and then later pay off the borrowed amount) if markets dropped for a period of time.
    Just one tool available to add buffer assets to your portfolio.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Discussion on Reverse mortgages as a way to handle "seqeunce of return risk" in retirement:
    Reverse Mortgages
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    FYI: Even top-level investment managers don’t try to promise 50% returns but these 10 funds have all returned at least that much over the past year, vs. 16.71% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index.
    Here are 10 funds that have turned $100 into $150 or more in the last 12 months ending Aug. 17, 2018, according to CFRA.
    Regards,
    Tedhttp://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20180823/FREE/823009999/PH/10-funds-that-returned-50-or-more-this-past-year&Params=Itemnr=2
    1. ProFunds Internet UltraSector Profound (INPIX)
    2. Rydex Monthly Rebalance NASDAQ-100 2x Strategy (RMQAX)
    3. Direxion Monthly NASDAQ-100 Bull 2x Fund (DXQLX)
    4. Eventide Healthcare & Life Sciences Fund (ETIHX)
    5. Jacob Micro Cap Growth Fund (JMCGX)
    6. Direxion Monthly Small Cap Bull 2x Fund (DXRLX)
    7. Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund (LOGWX)
    8. Rydex NASDAQ-100 2x Strategy Fund (RYVLX)
    9. Rydex Russell 2000 2x Strategy Fund (RYRUX)
    10.ProFunds UltraNASDAQ-100 ProFund (UOPIX)
  • 7 bear market funds
    One way to address bear market risk is to first study the history of bear markets:
    Here's a graphic:
    image
    source Image:
    History of U.S. Bear & Bull Markets
    Here's the narrative:
    historic-bear-markets/
    There are two term known as "Max Draw Down" and "Recovery Time" which loosely means the number of months it takes to complete the bear cycle from the start of the bear (when the bear arrives in camp) and until he leaves. For example, if you owned VWINX over the last 33 years (1985-2018) , this fund experienced a Max Draw Down of (-18.82%) starting in Nov of 2007. This fund bottomed in March 2009 and the began its recovery which continued until September 2009. Therefore, its "Recovery Time" took a little less than 2 years (November 2007- September 2009). This information is readily available on Portfolio Visualizer's website. Here's a snapshot of the chart with the Max Draw Down and Recovery Time highlighted.
    image
    For a long term investors these draw-downs are opportunities to buy less expensive shares. For retirees who are in the withdrawal phase these draw-downs create "sequence of return" risk especially if a retiree is locking in these losses with withdrawals (selling low).
    There are many ways to deal with sequence of return risk. I do not think owning a bear market fund is one of them.
    What might be?
    1. Withdrawing from a "cash like" funding source - In the scenario above one would need two years of income (2 years of withdrawals) since VWINX needed almost 2 years to recover. A retiree would instead withdraw from the cash-like source until VWINX recovered. Today these cash like accounts can earn almost 2% which helps offset inflation.
    2. Use your home's equity - either in the form of a HELOC or a Reverse Mortgage- as a temporary funding source for income. Both would need to be set up in advance. Remember HELOCs were being called in by banks during the very time that VWINX was floundering. A Reverse Mortgage has set up expenses associated with it, but it can not be called in by the bank. The younger you set it up (age 62) the longer the "equity value" grows independent of the "market value".
  • Fund Industry Limits C-Share Investing, Cutting 12b-1 Fee Income For Advisers
    FYI: The great share-class migration that has been building this year is starting to unfold, representing a significant pay cut for advisers relying on beefy 12b-1 fees for predictable income streams.
    Over the next few months, several fund companies plan to start converting C-class share mutual funds that have been held between seven and 10 years into A-class shares that pay advisers smaller 12b-1 fees.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=lwSAW5fLFYjYsQW0s4vIBg&q=Fund+industry+limits+C-share+investing,+cutting+12b-1+fee+income+for+advisers&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Fund+industry+limits+C-share+investing,+cutting+12b-1+fee+income+for+advisers&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3034.3034..4543...0.0..0.63.125.2......0....1j2..gws-wiz.....0.F6FvIhg6u5A
  • Loomis Sayles Value fund closes: LSVNX LSGIX
    See earlier post about liquidation:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/41551/loomis-sayles-value-fund-to-liquidate
    Also from Loomis Sayles website:
    https://www.loomissayles.com/website/mutual-funds/Value-Fund
    7/25/18 In accordance with the provisions of the Plan of Liquidation approved by the Board of Trustees, the Fund paid pre-liquidation capital gain and ordinary income distributions on July 25, 2018. For more information, please refer to the “Daily NAVs/Distributions” section of the website. The remainder of Fund assets will be liquidated on August 30, 2018, as scheduled.
    6/8/2018 Effective June 8, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from new investors. Effective August 15, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from current shareholders. Effective August 30, 2018, the Fund will be liquidated.
  • Plain Vanilla Foreign Funds
    @dryflower: I'll give you plain vanilla without sprinkles, just buy 6,161 foreign stocks contained in VGTSX and be done with it. All for an ER. of .17%
    Regards,
    Ted
    As @Bed would say, "this isn't foreign, it has 0.95% US Stock!"
    Bahahahahaha.
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    PRWCX Covered call strategy:
    PRWCX has employed a covered call overwriting strategy consistently since 2008. This involves buying an equity security and writing a call option that becomes exercisable at a higher price in return for an upfront premium. In the first half of 2018, our covered call program generated 133% of the market’s return while taking on only 55% of the market’s risk. While the underlying derivatives detracted from performance in the last six months, the underlying equities were material positive contributors to performance and the combined portfolio of equities and the calls written against them produced good absolute and risk-adjusted returns.
  • JP Morgan To Unveil New Investing App With An Eye-Catching, Disruptive Price: Free
    I haven't (yet) tried Chase, though I have tried the other three majors, and have been rather underwhelmed. I've used them primarily to meet mins for other services (e.g. getting bonus cash back on BofA credit cards with my Merrill Edge account), so my demands on them are minimal, and yet they still manage to disappoint.
    Better luck with Chase. Try them out before moving much of anything there. At least that way if/when you don't like them you'll be able to liquidate and not incur an ACAT (transfer) fee. (FWIW Schwab charges $25 for a partial transfer; the $50 is only for a full transfer.)
    Chase already sells all the funds it offers without a transaction fee. While that does include Vanguard (Investor shares only) and Fidelity, for the most part it's a limited offering. Just 30 families, and no institutional shares - just retail NL shares or load-waved A shares. A link to the list of funds and families is below, as is a copy of the families they sell.
    I think that consolidating institutions is more important in making it easier for your wife than finding a place she can walk into. It's really not hard doing must stuff over the phone. Though you do get to the point where a death certificate needs to be mailed in.
    It'ss not a big deal to send the paperwork via certified mail. Even if beneficiaries walk in with the paperwork, they won't get the money immediately.
    Gary Pilgrim and Harold Baxter were both crooks. (Remember Christine?)
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2004-157.htm
    As was William J . Nasgovitz
    https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
    Alliance Bernstein
    Allianz
    American Century
    American Funds (Capital Group)
    BlackRock
    Delaware
    Dreyfus
    Eaton Vance
    Federated
    Fidelity
    First Eagle
    Franklin Templeton
    Hartford
    Invesco
    Ivy
    John Hancock
    J.P. Morgan
    Legg Mason
    Lord Abbett
    MFS
    Natixis
    Nuveen
    Oppenheimer
    Pacific Life
    PIMCO
    Principal
    Putnam
    T.Rowe Price
    Transamerica
    Vanguard
    https://www.chase.com/content/dam/chase-ux/documents/personal/investments/jpm-mutual-fund-list-for-sdi.pdf
  • M* Says Investors Favored Passive, Defensive Funds In July
    FYI: U.S. ETF and mutual fund investors favored bonds over stocks and domestic over international while continuing a long-term trend towards passive management in July.
    According to Chicago-based Morningstar, $32.1 billion flowed into U.S. open-ended, long-only funds in July, compared to $22.1 billion in outflows during June.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/investors-favored-passive--defensive-funds-as-they-returned-to-the-markets-in-july-40458.html?print
  • JP Morgan To Unveil New Investing App With An Eye-Catching, Disruptive Price: Free
    Does anyone have experience with JPMorgan Chase? I see they charge $75 if you want to move out an asset. (Schwab wants $60 each to move an IRA, by the way.)
    I had a nice wrap account with Wells Fargo with 100 free trades. I still have the 100 free trades, but there is little other reason to stay with them.
    I started "collecting" mutual funds back when you pretty much bought them direct from the fund itself. Funds have come and gone (remember PBHG Growth? Heartland Value?), but I now have accounts at WF, Fido, TDA, Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, plus those pesky individual fund companies. Which is fine. For the time being. But eventually, it won't be fine. Particularly if I got hit by a bus tomorrow.
    I have been aggregating at Vanguard, but they are not really the place for stock trading, and they are not local. (But Vanguard waives my Transaction Fees on mutual funds ...)
    So the advantage I could see with JPM Chase is that lacking me, my wife could consolidate there and expect to walk to the Chase branch and receive money. Period.
  • 15 U.S. companies, largest R & D spending
    Hi @Ted
    50% of our equity holdings remains tech. and healthcare.
  • 15 U.S. companies, largest R & D spending
    R & D spending is generally considered a positive sign for a company's future growth. The list may help provide more insight into where you choose to place your investment monies going forward, if you're not already in place.
    15 U.S. companies largest R & D spending
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    Missed in all the brickbats here is that PRWCX is a top-notch fund from a top-notch fund family. I’ve owned it nearly since inception. @Crash has owned it for close to a decade. Many others in the discussion either own it or wish they did.
    A penny’s variation in a fund’s NAV on a single day is short-term focus for sure. I don’t know why @Crash singled the fund out for attention on Tuesday. But, considering the number of threads here that often have little / nothing to do with mutual funds, his sin appears slight.
    Some of us just enjoy discussing the workings of funds - particularly the ones we own. To me, saying something like “the fund has outperformed every year for 15 years” adds little to an understanding of the fund or of investing. Anyone can go to M*, Lipper, or another data base, list funds by category, and quickly learn how various funds in different categories have performed. And I suspect that’s about all some think there is to investing ... buy those funds that have done better than their peers over time. If that’s all you as an investor want / need, it’s fine with me. But to some of us the game is infinitely more interesting if we dissect the fund - looking for the reasons the fund has worked so well (or, sometimes, why it hasn’t).
    No one needed to read this thread. There’s plenty of other options to persue here. Ted, alone, generously initiates more threads most every day than @Crash and many others do over the course of a year. (And I’m sure he doesn’t mean to dismiss this single thread as totally irrelevant as compared to all those he posts.)
  • Plain Vanilla Foreign Funds
    Right, the lay terms get squishy (rightly or wrongly) in the real world of mfunds, that's all.
    As for merit, I tend to align with this analysis myself:
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/16/investing-international-funds/21825245/
    SP500 is plenty of foreign exposure, he says (using the word international :) )
  • Plain Vanilla Foreign Funds
    As for names, sort of
    VWIGX is also ~11% USA.
    DODFX just under 8%, while per M* its benchmark, FLB, is around 1%. So strict.
    FSIVX is 0% USA (Fido) or 1.5% (M*).
    So sweating the small stuff is, well, just sweating.
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    I understand a new TRP Capital Appreciation Income fund being discussed. Income (from higher allocation of bond and other instruments) is the primary focus similar to that of Vanguard's Wellesleye Income fund, VWIAX.
    TCAPX. Still pending. STILL!!!
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689311/000168931117000021/canpta-may35.htm