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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    FYI: A number of T. Rowe Price Group Inc. mutual funds beat the S&P 500 index during a tough 2018 for the U.S. stock market, but only five provided investors with positive returns.
    The total is less than half the number of portfolio managers who beat the index last year. Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price's funds, and the stock market overall, were hit hard by the stock market's dramatic plunge in December.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2019/02/20/only-five-t-rowe-price-u-s-mutual-funds-saw.html
  • USCF Commodity Strategy Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689322/000117120019000065/i19086_mft-497.htm
    497 1 i19086_mft-497.htm
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Securities Act File No. 333-214468
    Investment Company Act File No. 811-23213
    USCF Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
    USCF Commodity Strategy Fund (the “Fund”)
    Class A Shares (USCFX)
    and
    Class I Shares (USCIX)
    Supplement dated February 21, 2019 to the Prospectus for the Fund dated October 30, 2018. This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus. Please review this supplement carefully.
    After careful consideration, USCF Advisers, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation. Shareholder approval of the Plan of Liquidation is not required.
    Pursuant to the Plan of Liquidation, the last day on which orders will be accepted for the sale of Fund shares will be February 22, 2019. Shareholders may continue to redeem shares of the Fund as described in the Prospectus until the Fund has been liquidated.
    The Fund will liquidate on or around March 21, 2019 (the “Liquidation Date”). In connection with the liquidation and termination of the Fund, the Fund’s wholly-owned subsidiary incorporated in the Cayman Islands shall also be liquidated in a manner necessary to effectuate the Fund’s Plan of Liquidation.
    On or about March 14, 2019, the Fund will begin converting its portfolio assets to cash and cash equivalents. This will cause the Fund to increase its cash and cash equivalent holdings and deviate from its investment objective and principal investment strategies stated in the Prospectus.
    On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute its holdings pro rata to all remaining shareholders of the Fund. These distributions are taxable events for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. In addition, these payments will include accrued capital gains and dividends, if any. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. As calculated on the Liquidation Date, the Fund's net asset value will reflect the costs of liquidating the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    If you would like additional information, please contact Shareholder Services at 1-844-312-2114.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Warren Buffett Can’t Find Anything Big To Buy
    FYI: Warren Buffett is always on the hunt for “elephants,” as he calls large acquisitions. But three years have passed since he bagged a new one.
    One reason: The Omaha, Neb., billionaire faces unprecedented competition from private equity and other funds looking to make fast acquisitions, often at higher prices than Mr. Buffett is willing to pay. His last major deal, the $32 billion purchase of aerospace manufacturer Precision Castparts Corp., closed in January 2016.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-cant-find-anything-big-to-buy-11550745001?mod=hp_lead_pos5
  • Western Asset Short Term Yield Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764624/000119312519046170/d706429d497.htm
    (LGSYX, WTYIX, LGSTX affected)
    497 1 d706429d497.htm WESTERN ASSET SHORT TERM YIELD FUND
    LOGO
    LEGG MASON PARTNERS INCOME TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 21, 2019
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS
    AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, EACH DATED
    NOVEMBER 30, 2018, OF
    WESTERN ASSET SHORT TERM YIELD FUND (THE “FUND”)
    The following language is added to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information:
    The Fund’s Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to terminate and wind up the Fund. The Fund is expected to cease operations on or about March 29, 2019. In preparation for the termination of the Fund, and at the discretion of the Fund manager, the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the Fund will cease to pursue its investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund who elect to redeem their shares prior to the completion of the liquidation will be redeemed in the ordinary course at the Fund’s net asset value per share. Each shareholder who remains in the Fund will receive a liquidating distribution equal to the aggregate net asset value of the shares of the Fund that such shareholder then holds.
    In the interim, effective February 22, 2019, the Fund will be closed to new purchases and incoming exchanges, except that dividend reinvestment will continue until the Fund is terminated.
    Shareholders are encouraged to consider options that may be suitable for the reinvestment of their liquidation proceeds. Shareholders subject to federal income tax should be aware that an exchange or redemption of Fund shares or the receipt of distributions or liquidation proceeds is generally considered a taxable event.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    WASX504764
  • CAPE Fear: The Bulls Are Wrong. Shiller's Measure Is the Real Deal
    Generally, I'm at 10-15% in stocks but I can be up to 30-40% in certain times for several days. This can happen when SPY goes down and rebound, I watch the MACD, it has to go to negative(around -50) and rebound, I buy on the first positive day and sell after several days, it has a very high success rate(chart).
  • A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warn FA manager
    Heartland Advisors isn't quite the place I'd go for insight into the bond market. Remember that Will's dad (William J. Nasgovitz), CEO and controlling shareholder at the time, settled with the SEC for mispricing two muni bond funds. As a result of the mispricing, the funds' NAVs dropped by 69.4% and 44% in a single day.
    https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
    https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/23/business/sec-freezes-the-assets-of-three-heartland-funds.html
    Some corporations have their act together a bit better than Heartland (which got out of the bond fund business around 2003). Here's S&P's report from six months ago entitled U.S. Refinancing Study--$4.88 Trillion Of Rated Corporate Debt Is Scheduled To Mature Through 2023
    https://www.allnews.ch/sites/default/files/files/20180822_SP_US-Refinancing-Study-Rated-Corporate-Debt.pdf
    Maturities are set to rise above $1 trillion annually in 2021 and 2022, up from $721 billion in 2019. While this is a substantial amount of debt, credit markets in the U.S. have shown sufficient depth and demand for corporate credit to facilitate companies' issuance of new debt to manage pending maturities. ...
    While the maturity wall steepens as debt mounts in 2021 and 2022, we expect that companies will issue new debt between now and then, and that the amount of debt maturing in those years will decline in the intervening years.
    It's a solid 17 page report, covering different grades of bonds, financial and non-financial corporate. If the subject is of interest, this is a good place to start.
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    X-Ray at M* tells me I'm down to 3.55% of portf. in EM, worldwide. In retirement-mode, I don't need the extra volatility. A while ago, I thought about PRIJX but never pulled the trigger. Just as well. Today, I see it's up, YTD by 8.37..... My PRWCX is up by 8.86. I know the EM can run hot and cold, in streaks. The whole portf. is now just 34% in equities. PRWCX is my biggest chunk, at 32% of portf. And 5% cash, 2% "other."
    PRIDX gives me almost all of my international & EM exposure.
    X-Ray says:
    full portf. carries Asia EM 2.47 of total.
    ...And what about "Australasia?" Is that Oz plus NZ plus out of the way places like The Maldives and the Solomons and the Marshall Islands, or what? (0.62% there.)
    Africa/M.E =0.19%
    Europe EM = 0.
    LatAm =0.89%.
    Ethical filters as well as portf. protection will keep me much more Stateside, from now on, though I still want just one finger in the EM pie.
    ...Although, judging from the ones in the seats of power these days, "ethics" is a thing they are unaware of. But what are ya gonna do. Untrammeled capitalism is the only game in town. Until Leadership grows or re-grows a conscience. ("Can you say, 'con-science,' boys and girls? I KNEW you COULD," said Mr. Rogers, in his trademark creepy voice, from the grave.)
    BONDS are in PTIAX and the lion's share is in PRSNX. ALL bonds in portf. these days = 59% of total.
  • Stash your cash in bond ETFs
    https://moneyweek.com/502035/stash-your-cash-in-bond-etfs/
    A savings account isn’t always practical. Here’s what to do with the cash in your portfolio.
  • My retirement portfolio
    Also agree, with a couple of interrelated comments.
    You have virtually no foreign securities (3%). Certainly Buffett and Bogle would applaud this; others (myself included) would differ. Regardless, if that's your intent, then why bother with VSMGX? Like VBIAX, it's 60/40, the main difference being that 40% of its equity if foreign.
    Personally, I'm a fan of VWIAX and so agree that this would be a good fund to use to consolidate all your balanced (allocation) holdings. You could then use one or two (if you want some foreign exposure) equity funds to boost your long term returns.
    Dividend appreciation (VDADX /VIG) doesn't mean high dividends. It's just a particular strategy for selecting equities. Right now, its 30 day SEC yield is 2.02%, which is less than VFIAX's 2.05%. And it has 5x the turnover.
    (If you're seeking high dividend yield, there's VHYAX /VYM, though that invests in a narrower, value-oriented slice of the market.)
    My own view (YMMV) is that for long term investing, I'm not going to bet on any particular strategy. I would just buy the whole market and be done with it: VTSAX (or VTI if you really insist on a fund's ETF share class).
    For another perspective, here's M*s latest column on Vanguard 3-bucket portfolios:
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/882670/how-our-vanguard-model-bucket-portfolios-have-perf.html
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    Umm ... Lot to chew on. My only EM is a 5-6% hold on an EM bond fund - a dollar hedged one at that (which curbs some risk). It should amp-up my fixed income return a bit over time. But I suppose a good junk bond fund might add some similar bang to one’s fixed income. How much bang do you want or need in fixed?
    Like JoJo said, EMs are very volatile - more so on the equity side. So my first question is Who needs the pain?. International / global equity funds can and do hold EM and can be pretty volatile themselves. So why ramp it up further if you don’t need to? Many international funds fell 50% from late ‘07 until early ‘09. I don’t even want to look how EM fared. But couldn’t have been any better.
    My second question is which “emerging market”? They‘re literally all over the planet. Do you mean The Middle East - a region where you can walk into an Embassy and be carried out in a suitcase? Brazil - where the new guy is lowering the hammer on the gay transgender community and otherwise usurping individual freedoms? Africa? China? North or South Korea? Russia?
    So it seems to me an intelligent conversation about whether or not to own EM might begin with what part of the world and why. Often some areas prosper while others falter. Back in my early investing days EM was pretty synonymous with raw materials / natural resources, So there was often an indirect play there. That’s still the case with some, like Venezuela, but it’s becoming more the exception today as manufacturing has taken hold in many EM regions that may lack natural resources. I do like international stock and bond funds because they provides a counterweight to the U.S. dollar should it falter. But I’m not so sure you have to play in EM to gain that advantage.
  • My retirement portfolio
    v conservative and bond-heavy, won't hit 3% but of course you can also draw on principal depending on age and cashflow need and SS and maybe taxes.
    I myself, and many others, would seriously suggest you consolidate and downsize, say everything into VWIAX or everything into VBIAX depending on the preceding variables, or 50-50 into each.
  • My retirement portfolio
    Hi @Ken: I see that you are a relative new poster on the board. With this, I say welcome.
    In review of the funds you have listed I am finding that only one has better than the 3% yield goal that you seek for your portfolio. This fund is VWIAX which has a yield of 3.14% according to Morningstar. So, working within the confines of what your have and if you are ok with putting most all of your eggs in one basket, so to speak, then you can get there through putting 96% into VWIAX along with keeping some cash with 4% going into VMMXX.
    This asset allocation bubbles in Xray at 5% cash, 60% bonds and 35% stocks; and, it has a yield of 3.02%.
    Perhaps some other members might know of some other Vanguard funds that you might consider switching into that will help you to better achieve your portfolio's 3% yield goal.
    Old_Skeet
  • My retirement portfolio
    I am retiring in May. Can you give your opinion on my portfolio. I am trying for a 3% yield. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
    Thanks,
    Ken
    Vanguard Balanced Index Adm VBIAX 7.75
    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF VIG 34.02
    Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Gr Inv VSMGX 7.36
    Vanguard Prime Money Market Investor VMMXX 7.54
    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Adm VBIRX 6.72
    Vanguard Shrt-Term Infl-Prot Sec Idx Adm VTAPX 5.96
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Adm VBTLX 6.59
    Vanguard Wellesley® Income Admiral™ VWIAX 24.06
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.
    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?
    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee
    % all depends on where you're at in your life. Early savers could be upwards of 10%+ of equities.
    What's so great about NEWFX and DWGAX? I don't get everybody's infatuation with American Funds......
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.
    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?
    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    FYI: Worries about trade wars and decelerating global growth in 2018 left their imprint on developing economies and the funds that invest in them. Between Jan. 29 and Oct. 29, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost a fourth of its value, peak to trough. Popular Chinese stocks like Tencent and Alibaba (BABA) helped lead the race to bottom. While the months of November and December brought somewhat of a reprieve, the typical diversified emerging-markets Morningstar Category fund shed 16.1% in 2018. Investors who had the temerity to increase their exposure to emerging markets during the last bear market ended on Jan. 21, 2016, reaped a handsome reward as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index almost doubled prior to its 2018 downturn. Here are a few ideas for betting on another rebound.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/913835/time-to-buy-emerging-markets.html
  • It’s Never Too Early To Get Your Kid Saving For Retirement. Here’s How.
    Hi @BrianW: Thanks for making comment.
    There are two school of thoughts on this. Now that we are at (or towards) a market top ... Well, I'm thinking ... In holding a capital appreciation fund there is no dividend or income generation that can be used to buy more shares should the market tank. In the route I went, with three growth & income funds plus one growth fund, there is dividend generation that gives the portfolio some buying power should the market pull back. Needless to say, I'm looking for a pull back in the stock market since I went the second route with some dividend generation with the opening positions.
    In addition, as additional gifts are made to the custodial account this money can be positioned accordingly. By using American Funds A shares they have a nav exchange program where an investor can make nav exchanges between their A share funds commission free. So, just because the portfolio started in this configuration does not mean it will always be this way.
    Also, there are no wrap fees on this account and Morningstar estimates the total expense ratio on this portfolio at 0.69%. In back testing this portfolio it had a three year total return of 12.67% and a ten year total return of 12.2%. While this is back of the returns of a S&P 500 Index fund that I sometime use I am happy with what is projected for this portfolio in its current configuration which offers greater global exposure than the 500 Index fund.
  • It’s Never Too Early To Get Your Kid Saving For Retirement. Here’s How.
    For a very young child, couldn't one just invest in a small cap value index fund and let it grow for around 65 years? I suppose it could be diversified at some point but why bother with bonds to begin with?
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    Thanks for inputs. If Max Drawdown is/was almost equal, but long term since inception VADAX has outperformed SPY 363% vs 225% total return (since around Jan 1999), why hasn't the industry AUM seen more migration to EW? What am I missing? Each one of Old Skeets "cons" is already baked into the total return.
  • It’s Never Too Early To Get Your Kid Saving For Retirement. Here’s How.
    Why 529? Custodial account gives more flexibility! Here's my thinking. Once grand child becomes old enough to work summer and part time jobs move money (to what has been earned) from custodial account to Roth Ira. In this way, it will grow tax free. In addition custodial money can be used in any fashion that benefits the child while 529 money has to be used for education only.