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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • seeking a little alpha around SP500 --- XRLV
    @davidmoran: You are correct, I used the wrong index fund (SPY). So let's look at the index fund I use IVV against XRLV. As far as risk/rating, I not a big believer in the MPT. If your happy owning XRLV is the keys to the kingdom rather than just the old boring haystack, be my guest. In my opinion your are just kidding yourself.
    Regards,
    Ted
    YTD:
    XRLV =6.57%
    IVV= 8.21%
    1yr.
    XRLV=17.96%
    IV 26.12%
    3yr.
    XRLV=15.34%
    IVV= 15.52%
    Expense Ratio's:
    XRLV=.25%
    SPY= .04%
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    JABAX would be the one to look at, MW, imo.
    otoh, anyone can do what I do, if with less diversity: Go 50-50 or 60-40 (either direction), or whatever suits, divided b/w DSENX and PONAX.
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    Is there any way to buy into this fund? I was too late to the party unfortunately. Is there a good alternative that anyone would recommend? I'm in FPACX but it has greatly underperformed PRWCX.
    Hank is correct: "This fund--- PRWCX--- walks on water." ... I can tell you that my other fund in the same category (according to Morningstar) is MAPOX from Mairs and Power, out of St. Paul, MN. YTD, PRWCX is +6.22% while MAPOX is up +3.07%. And MAPOX pays divs quarterly, while PRWCX pays everything only in one slug, in December. Looking back 10 years, MAPOX is up +8.52%, in top 11 percentile in-category. In the same 10-year period, PRWCX is up by +9.91%, in top 1% in-category. So, you can see that over the long-haul, that category's best performers are bunched-up, near the top of the heap. In the case of MAPOX, $10,000 has in that time frame become $22,658 while the same amount in PRWCX has grown to $25,730.
  • Vanguard Brings Unrivaled Access To ETFs With Launch Of Industry’s Largest Commission-Free Platform
    I am told by my ML handholder that etn status is not the reason, but its use of derivatives. Or something like that.
    $7 is good; Fido is $5, if I am reading correctly; dunno why I balk, sez the guy who drives 3 miles to save $3 on scotch.
    That Elements link is the single funniest piece of financial writing I have read in very many months.
    But these are highly comical too, directly or indirectly.
    https://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23314-the-worst-etf-in-the-world.html
    https://www.elementsetn.com/ElementsETNUI/SPECTRUM-U.S.-ETN.aspx
    Up a dime today. $4M in assets, sez M*. Strategy almost CAPE-like, har.
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    My investments are split about 50-50 between Schwab and Vanguard. Sort of accidental, related to retirement accounts at the two main places where I worked. Both are fine, but if I ever consolidate I'll go with Schwab. I like their web site better overall.
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    This often is the life of an allocation fund...remember PRWCX is not an all equity fund. It's 68% allocation to equities is on the low side for this fund IMHO. Cash is 4.5% and "other" is over 5%. Anyone have a clue what "other" might be?
    Hang in there Crash...This fund YTD has returned 6.26% significantly out distancing its peers.
    image
    Here it is compared against the S&P 500 since 1986:
    image
    Hope that helps...
  • seeking a little alpha around SP500 --- XRLV
    @Ted,
    You can do way better than SPY (cash drag, as uit). Let us compare with the very best, VOO.
    Since the day after it launched, 4/7/15, 3-1/3y ago, $10k in XRLV has risen to $15,020 and change.
    VOO, which handily beats SPY, has increased to $14,709 less change.
    >$300, XRLV beats VOO, and forget SPY.
    But for 3y, its outperformance is slight. And 2y shows underperformance, 1y the same but less so, and for increments thereof, ditto, ... except for the last month.
    So: if not longterm, you won't go wrong with VOO (Ted, you might change your reference point).
    But anyone can probably do slightly better than VOO, adding slightly more value, with no more volatility and likely less volatility. As LB notes.
    Nothing approaches CAPE, though, alas.
    So at ML it looks as though I will need to do something like 50-50 XRLV and QUAL.
    Other suggestions (with backup) welcome.
  • seeking a little alpha around SP500 --- XRLV
    @Ted Correct me if I'm wrong but is not a 14.19% 3-year annualized return higher than a 14.15% one? And with less volatility: performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/ratings-risk.action?t=XRLV&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Better returns with less risk equals alpha.
  • seeking a little alpha around SP500 --- XRLV
    @MFO Members: Davidmoran is" seeking a little alpha around SP500", so far that hasn't happened with XRLV. Let's look at the three year return for XRLV and SPY. Low volatility rate around the S&P 500, please. These niche mutual funds only prove that if you build it someone will come along and buy it. Just say no to niche funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    YTD:
    XRLV =6.45%
    SPY= 7.96%
    1yr.
    XRLV=17.96%
    SPY= 19.80%
    3yr.
    XRLV=14.19%
    SPY= 14.15%
    Expense Ratio's:
    XRLV=.25%
    SPY= .09%
  • seeking a little alpha around SP500 --- XRLV
    I have found the DSE_X funds to do a very good job, as anyone who reads my posts knows, and have often touted the great etn CAPE in addition or instead. But some don't like to deal in etfs / etns whose processes are not easy to understand, and for others it is unavailable, for example at ML.
    So using MFOP and other sites, I am always looking for other seemingly consistent small improvements over VOO to sub for CAPE. (Straight low-vol indexes often do not show any outperformance.) This has led me to examine QUAL and LGLV (SP500 subclasses / subscreens, so to speak) and similar.
    My latest discovery, while not CAPE (which is GO and HR), is XRLV, which tracks the SP500 Low-Volatility Rate Response Index, whose purported and so-far-so-good advantages are explained here:
    http://www.indexologyblog.com/2018/06/06/maintaining-risk-reduction-while-reducing-interest-rate-risk/
    https://investorplace.com/2018/06/4-funds-that-will-help-protect-against-rising-interest-rates/
  • iofix
    @Junkster: While I have your attention. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say some time back, that if the S&P 500 hit 3,000 by year end, you would roll a peanut down Walls Street with you nose. Guess what, get ready to roll !
    Regards,
    Ted :)
    Ha ha, no, but I did say I would bow down to you from afar.
  • BlackRock: How To Rev Up Your Idle Cash
    @ MFO Members: Here is the difference in yield between Morgan Stanley's Sweeps account and several of their Money Market Funds. Proceeds from sells, dividends, or interest are automatically transferred to Bank Sweeps account. In my case the difference is .50% in the Bank account and 1.84% in MVRXX. The move to the MM fund is not automatic, I must call the broker and direct him to do so.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morganstanley.com/wealth-investmentstrategies/ratemonitor
  • iofix
    @Junkster: While I have your attention. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say some time back, that if the S&P 500 hit 3,000 by year end, you would roll a peanut down Walls Street with you nose. Guess what, get ready to roll !
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • iofix
    There's a new (to me, anyway) fund "presentation," as the IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
    Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
    The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
    P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146697-perfect-mutual-fund-volatile-times
    Thanks Andy. The crew at Garrison Point Capital have always been very detailed in their presentations. As you allude to, a wealth of information. Above is a link that I don’t believe has been previously posted here on their strategy. I thought Charles had a more thorough analysis. But what I like about this one is the analogy with the old geezer and his bankrupt railroad bonds and the discounted legacy non agencies IOFIX specializes in. Yes, I know, comparing apples to oranges but you get the drift.
    By the way, here is the analysis by Charles
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/
  • Why The Most Important Idea In Behavioral Decision-Making Is A Fallacy
    My question is: if investors do not weigh losses more heavily than gains (i.e. are averse to losses), then why do so many people here keep looking at Sortino ratios and maximum draw downs? Why don't we have maximum gain data as well?
    @msf - great question
    It might be (in studying potential downside) that people are seeking to rationalize the risks they take - in effect, to convince themselves that the risks are small compared to the gains they expect.
    We don’t have maximum gain data. How could you? :) But after a 10-year bull market most risk-asset numbers look rosey. By contrast, after a bear market where 40-50% losses were experienced, the reverse might be the case. People might need convincing that “The sun will come out tomorrow.”
    There’s a reason the play Annie is set in the Great Depression years. Here’s some well done clips from live stage. Gotta love it.
  • High-yield fixed income continues its winning ways
    @MFO Members: Speaking of high-yield, on 2/8/17 I bought 50 Hertz 7.375% B3 1/15/21 bonds at slight discount of $98.12. The bonds closed yesterday @ 100.750. So far so good.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • New Webhost
    Just migrated MFO Premium to DreamHost from SiteGround, which has hosted the site since launch in November 2015. The reason for the change is that Paypal recently started enforcing more up-to-date versions of TLS (Transport Layer Security) than were available on SiteGround’s server, so it stopped handshaking with our subscriber management software, called UserBase. That meant we had to manually approve subscribers after they paid on PayPal. That issue should be fixed now.
    We apologize for any hassle!
    The site appears fully functional and the transition should be transparent, but if you see anything amiss (for example, missing newer WatchLists), please email ([email protected]) and we will address soonest.
    As always.
  • BlackRock: How To Rev Up Your Idle Cash
    FYI: New York City has stringent anti-idling laws for parked vehicles. The City even pays bounties for citizens who send in video evidence of people sitting in their cars with their motors running. The spirit of the law is to prevent wasting gas and to improve community conditions.
    Leaving cash in your brokerage account is akin to burning fuel without getting anywhere. It’s not productive for you or your long-term investment goals. I’m anti-idling for the long-term investor. Cash is basically a zero-expected return asset class. But the reality is that there’s always going to be some cash in your brokerage account. Cash generally comes from deposits you make, proceeds from selling your investments and dividends. And some investors simply prefer having some portion of a portfolio in the safety and surety of cash.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.blackrockblog.com/2018/08/15/avoid-idle-cash/?utm_source=blog&utm_medium=hero&utm_campaign=hero
  • iofix
    There's a new (to me, anyway) fund "presentation," as the IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
    Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
    The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
    P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.