I just got an email from TRP telling me that the T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth Fund, RPMGX is going from closed status to restricted status. It looks like purchases must be made directly with TRP.
If anyone desires, I can copy/paste the text from the email.
I've been in this fund since 1998.
Dave

What if:
A. Joe begins the 25 year period by putting 50% into an S&P 500 index fund and 50% into GNMA funds
B. After 3 years the S&P index fund has fallen 40% in value. The GNMA funds have retained their initial value.
C. Joe than panics and moves his remaining equity balance into his GNMA funds for the duration of the 25 year term
For simplicity, let’s assume Joe’s GNMA funds’ managers achieve an annual 3.5% return over the 25 year period as the rate on the 10 year gradually increases from under 1% initially to 5% in year 25.
ISTM that that initial loss (near 20% of portfolio) over the first 3 years has done significant damage to Joe’s future earning prospects. (This proposition can be sliced and diced in a number of different ways.)
-
Taking into account the stocks losses in the beginning, I’m showing that w/o the annual withdrawals the sum after 25 years would have grown to approximately $1,787,262 (using 3.5% monthly compounding).
Had Joe avoided stocks altogether and gone 100% into GMNA funds at the onset (3.5% average return) he’d have approximately $2,234,007 at the end of 25 years.
Difference in return: $446,745 - Approximately 25% more without having incurred the initial stock losses
* Neither hypothetical case takes into account Joe’s $40,000 yearly withdrawals, which would alter the numbers somewhat.

Yes-for the risk-tolerant, FMSDX crushes the other two.

But I see it's holding 58+ % in equities. Its category is 30-50% in equities. But that's a M* creation, anyhow. Then whatever comparison numbers you're looking at over at M* will be skewed. By how much? Yes, it does look like a fine fund. Turnover looks scary. But yield is over 3%. I look for yield. FMSDX changed its stripes in 2019. Doing much better.

@Crash - Thanks for the aviation tidbits. You meet all kinds for sure. Once, riding in first class years ago, a couple older gals seated behind me were downing the free alcoholic beverages as fast as they could. Sloshed by the time we landed. Obnoxiously loud. Not a great ride. “Pedestrian class” might have been better that day,
I have no particular gripe re M*. They are what they are. I always consult at least 3 different sources before buying a new fund. I do think M* favors funds that have been hot recently in awarding stars. So there’s a good chance those stars will propel you to buying at the worst possible time while the fund is hot. Suspect that’s true of a lot of rating systems.
FT is $12 monthly on Amazon Kindle. Six issues weekly. It only takes one really good idea, bit of information, insight, suggestion or revelation to make a huge difference in your investment approach and outcome. Ben Franklin: “An investment in knowledge always pays the best dividend.”

+1
Lacking a definitive answer, that’s the safest alternative. No need to do anything. Was just wondering.

TRLGX. TRP. Holds the usual high-flying suspects: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Visa. PRGFX. TRP. Almost a clone of the other.
Just noticed: HCAIX holds no bonds, as expected. But it's doing just a tiny bit better this year than PRWCX, which does hold bonds and is heavily into utilities. But you can't get in, unless you're already in.
Morningstar puts Mairs & Power Growth MPGFX into its large-blend category. It has slipped behind the Index that Morningstar compares it to. Instituted in 1958. Only two "bad" recent years I can see: 2014 and 2017. Past 15-year performance = 10.74%, in top 13th percentile vs. "peers." Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, United Health, US Bancorp, Ecolab...

I like several funds in this category - POLIX, HCAIX, FBGRX, JGQIX. You need to look at the Sector weightings and holdings concentration among other things before investing. Stating the obvious, most of the top performers over the past 5 & 10 years more than likely held the FANG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google)

After selling all or part of a mutual fund @ Fido, is there any restriction prohibiting purchasing that same fund again a day later?
I can think of 2 scenarios:
1) You’ve just sold a Fido fund (after holding it 31 days) …than buy it or add to it soon thereafter.
2) You’ve just sold a NTF fund you bought at Fido and held for 61 days … than buy it or add to it soon thereafter.
ISTM the answer to both is that you may do so without penalty. Since I served 90 days in their “penalty box” upon arrival, I’m not interested in testing any of this out.
(Sorry if this has already been addressed)

Also FWIW, and it may be worth plenty to anyone considering or actually BUYing FDRV...
FDRV is a brand new relatively, lightly traded ETF. It is (mysteriously?) UP 4.92% pre-market on a coupla hundred shares traded.
Just a WAG here, but looks like a single BUYer may have entered a Market order and got taken to the cleaners/woodshed. As an owner of FDRV, hoping it's something other than that, but...
Moral: HIGHLY suggest using ONLY Limit orders on FDRV given its daily trading volume.
EDIT_1: FDRV opened UP ~1%. Looks like some poor (pun intended) got burned on their pre-mrkt BUY.
EDIT_2: Article on EVs:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/26/americans-are-buying-teslas-not-evs-heres-why-thats-about-to-change.html
EDIT_3: Yeah, RE E_1...looks like FDRV BUYers are getting burned/today with their market orders, as it whiphaws between UP ~0.50% to ~3.0% during markets hours. Having owned it from near its inception date earlier this month, have not seen anything like this on any previous trading day so far. Noted that volume is heavy on it today, 38K shares traded by 11:30 AM with avg daily volume 40K.
Be careful out there!

DraftKings Walks From Potential $22.4 Billion Offer for Entain
DFKG is up nearly 8% in pre-market trading this morning. The buyout bid has really hammered their stock the past 1-2 months. Still, with football season in high gear, I was surprised how far it slid.
Cathie Wood is a major holder through her ARK funds. Before buying a small sliver, I looked at its largest shareholders, with VG and TRP near the top - though TRP sold some shares off earlier this year.
As far as using their app - I haven’t accessed it since last March, as basketball is the only aspect that interests me.
Link to Story
Edit : DKNG finished up 4% for the day.

We've seen this before:

There was once a king in India who was a big chess enthusiast and had the habit of challenging wise visitors to a game of chess. One day a traveling sage was challenged by the king. The sage having played this game all his life all the time with people all over the world gladly accepted the Kings challenge. To motivate his opponent the king offered any reward that the sage could name. The sage modestly asked just for a few grains of rice in the following manner: the king was to put a single grain of rice on the first chess square and double it on every consequent one. The king accepted the sage’s request.

https://purposefocuscommitment.medium.com/the-rice-and-the-chess-board-story-the-power-of-exponential-growth-b1f7bd70aaca
Reduce the number of squares on the chess board from 64 to 25 to represent the 25 years.
Reduce the multiplier from 2x to the inflation rate (e.g. 1.025 for 2.5%)
Instead of starting with 1 grain of rice, start with $40K scrip
Standard mathematical technique for solving problems - transform them to something already solved.
Even if inflation averages 2.5%/year, there's always sequence of "return" risk. You might have all the inflation in year one, in which case you'd need 25 years x $40K per year x (1.025)^25, or all the inflation could be just as Joe reaches the end of his estimated lifetime. Which brings us to longevity risk.

Simple calc for many of you, I am sure.
Panicked by high equity valuations and weak bond prospects, Joe decides to put his $1M retirement egg under the mattress, for keeps. He has 25y to live, he figures. He needs to take out $40k a year to live happily. (No heirs or charities, spend to zero.)
So he reckons he's all set if there were no inflation. But he knows that's not gonna happen.
So ... how much extra does he need to put under the mattress and leave there in order to draw $40k annually if inflation is 2.5% a year for 25y? How about if 3% ?

https://fortune.com/2021/10/25/tesla-stock-hertz-100000-electric-vehicles/
Maybe too late to buy fir cheap after the uptrends
Tesla may reach >1k next yr

+1

“Stock investors may be feeling a tad jealous of their crypto cousins. Bitcoin, the largest crypto-currency, blew past its record high this past week, reaching new heights around $67,000, up 50% since Sept. 30. Bulls now see a path to $100,000.”
“After years of false starts, a Bitcoin-futures-based ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (ticker: BITO), debuted on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. It racked up a record $1.1 billion in assets in two days, but it already has company. Another futures ETF, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy (BTF), launched on the Nasdaq on Friday. Other futures ETFs that could win approval soon include funds from VanEck, AdvisorShares, and ARK 21Shares. The flurry of futures ETFs may be a turning point.”
Barron’s October 25, 2021

From the NY Times "Your Money" section:
How the Supply Chain Broke, and Why It Won’t Be Fixed Anytime Soon

+1 hank PRIHX only has 73 million AUM. Fidelity could take this fund and probably run 500 million or a billion in assets. Still don't know why Fido doesn't have its own high-yield muni fund. HYD is an etf in this space that I've invested in for some time .

welcome; I wish doing so helped my understanding more, although for me it does always prove useful to research and write things down, while rereading smarties here.
I have trouble ripping off Barron's, but last spring Forsyth seemed not a fan of rent equivalencies, although I find him hard to follow in general sometimes and pin down (probably my bad); from 6mos ago:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-inflation-is-running-hotter-than-it-looks-51620855700
and he does get to tap his drum by invoking Carlson.
(One commenter says Barron's is a liberal cover or something. Maybe I should pay up.)
We have not even mentioned / argued about regional CPIs. I know the 'experience' qualification is important; Old Joe would concur. I sense that elders Yellen and Powell are savvy about that, but obvs they have to deal in the world of macro policy.
You yourself have got to do a blog or draft paper on education and inflation calc.
I am fascinated at your PT calc report. You probably even know what cadastral means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_tax

Your post helps tremendously in understanding what you're thinking about. Much appreciated.
My head is full of loosely connected thoughts that would take too long to organize coherently now, so I'll just toss out a few for the moment.
I like BLS's idea of separating out expenses from investments. Just as we don't include stock prices in inflation, OER is designed to exclude the cost of a home as an appreciating asset. At the same time, it attempts to count the costs (including operating costs) of the shelter aspect of one's home. While we can debate how well it accomplishes this, it is a reasonable approach.
Side note: my property taxes are based not on the selling price of comps, but on the theoretical value of my home as rental property. Take market rental rates, and use current interest rates to work backward to compute the "correct" assessment, regardless of what my home would currently fetch. This has got its own set of problems, but serves to show that using OER is not limited to CPI calculations.
Side note: the fact that homes can be viewed as a potentially appreciating asset is something that differentiates homes from vehicles. Except for antique vehicles, which BLS explicitly excludes from the CPI. They're viewed as pure investments, not transportation.
Similar to homes, education has attributes of daily expenses and attributes of an investment. (Perhaps I've been listening too much to Build Back Better's expression of education as an investment in human "capital.") Thinking about this it seems that the two categories of expenses could be treated similarly.
Amortizing the expenses over several years, as a homeowner does with monthly PITI payments could be a reasonable way to incorporate home prices directly and smooth some of the price volatility. Just as students wind up carrying college debt for many years.
Not only do different people experience inflation differently, but inflation on the national level can be different from the way individuals experience inflation. For example, last year the cost (premium) of Medicare insurance went up $3.90, but it should have gone up roughly four times that to cover projected expenses.
From a national perspective medical costs rose by some given amount; it didn't matter who was paying the increase. However, as a result of the subsidy, individuals experienced a lower rate of inflation in 2021. Of course now that this subsidy has expired, Medicare recipients feel like there's a higher rate of inflation. This, despite medical costs having stabilized from a national perspective.
Regarding Forsyth, I haven't really read him. But I did read the cited Carson blog that has much of the same flavor. I tend to tune out things like that because people are good at complaining about perceived wrongs, but tend to be silent when the same measures work out in their favor.
For example, the Senior Citizens League is very good at banging the drum for using CPI-E as opposed to CPI-W for COLAs. But we haven't heard a peep from them this year, not since CPI-W came out a percent higher than CPI-E. What will Fosyth say the next time housing prices fall?

I keep getting money building up in my bank account.

That’s quite common. The experts say we’re still flush with cash. A lot of spending was curtailed during the worst of Covid. Folks travelled little. And with less travel - plus working from home - new wardrobes weren’t necessary. Fuel was cheap.(Crude went below 0). People drove much less. I put off some interior maintenance for almost a year - not wanting workers in the house before being vaccinated.
That cash is beginning to flood back into the economy. I’d like to say I invested mine like @Anna did - but, instead, it went into some important home upgrades this summer (an investment of sorts I guess). While the costs were high, I suspect they were much lower than they will be in 3, 5 or 10 years time.