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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • *
    Just a note that I do not "analyze" funds mentioned in this thread based on a single day's performance, or one month's performance, or 3 month's performance. When I provide information about funds, I try to provide 1 year and 3 year total return and related fund information, and I also look closely at bond oef performance in some severe downmarket periods (like 2015 and 2018), to see how well they protected principal in those periods. My overall objective on this thread, is to provide you with information about funds, and categories of funds, that generally are considered conservative. What you choose to do with that information is beyond the scope of this thread.
  • Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio liquidation postponed
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041320000153/c95084_497.htm
    497 1 c95084_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    By supplements dated October 25, 2019 and November 22, 2019, it was announced that the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio (the "Portfolio") had approved temporary postponement of liquidation of the Portfolio.
    In light of other potential options that are being pursued for the Portfolio other than liquidation, the Board has approved, subject to certain conditions, a further postponement of the liquidation of the Portfolio. The Board expects additional disclosures about the Portfolio to be made during the first quarter of 2020.
    Dated: January 27, 2020
  • TIAA-CREF follows Vanguard
    Lots of funds are NTF without a 12b-1 fee. That just means that the servicing fee isn't called out explicitly, not that it doesn't exist.
    For example, JACTX class T (retail class) has ER of 0.91%, no 12b-1 fee, and is NTF at several brokerages. The institutional class, JCAPX has ER of 0.72% and is available with a $2500 min and TF at Fidelity. The only difference according to the summary prospectus, is the amount of "other expenses".
    "Other expenses" is a catchall for burying expenses. As the SEC writes, "If shareholder service fees are paid outside a 12b-1 plan, then they will be included in the 'Other Expenses' category." Those fees are still being collected from the retail fund. They're just not called out explicitly as 12b-1 fees.
    Retail class funds tithe their investors for servicing fees, regardless of whether they're called out by an explicit 12b-1 line item.
    It gets worse. American Century funds often have a single "all in" management fee. This makes it look as if investors aren't bearing any costs, that management is. The reality of course is that management isn't forgoing profits; the investors are simply paying higher management fees to cover the costs. How much of those fees are going toward operating/servicing expenses is completely opaque.
    ACIIX (institutional class) charges a management fee of 0.72%, and that covers everything. TWEIX (retail investor class) charges a management fee of 0.92% and that covers everything. The managers aren't getting paid more to manage one share class than another - they manage the entire portfolio underlying all share classes Rather, the higher fee is used for covering the cost of servicing the retail share. ERs are from the summary prospectus.
  • *
    @dtconroe,
    Like you, I like longer holding periods for my funds, that I invest in, and do not make many frequent trades; but, I do make changes within my portfolio from time-to-time. I'm thinking that, in general, a fixed income spiff would have a life within my portfolio of better than a year perhaps sometimes less if the FOMC started a rapid rate increase campaign. Since, most of my fixed income funds are at, or near, their 52 week highs I'm presently on hold in opening a spiff bond fund (oef) position. Just thinking of how I'd work my buy and sell stategy at this time.
    Thanks again for your comment. It is appreciated.
    Old_Skeet
  • *
    "Old_Skeet">@dtconroe,
    I have enjoyed reading and following your thread on open end bond funds (oef).
    One of the things that I picked up on in reading this thread is that you are a momentum type investor and move among one fund, or funds, to another from time to time. Would you please describe your process in doing this? What indicators you may use? What triggers movement? How do you track and etc?
    I've been looking for a investing strategy that I might incorporate within my fixed income sleeve to keep it positioned within the faster currents. With this I've invested mostly in multi sector bond and income funds and let the fund manager find the better places to be invested. My fund's range of movenment between their 52 week low vs. 52 week high range from 2% on the low side to about a 6% range of movement on the high side. I've been thinking of a way to use this range of movement within my investment strategy. Any thoughts?"
    Old_Skeet, I am on this forum, posting about OEF bond funds, because I am NOT a "momentum type investor", at least Not on a frequent short term trading basis. On M* there is some strong support for an investing approach, that uses momentum data based on 90 day moving averages, to invest in the "best" 4 or 5 funds. Based on the belief that 90 day moving averages signals the beginning or end of a performance pattern, investors will move between various bond oef categories, to select the "best" momentum based fund, with a strong emphasis on risk characteristics as well. I tried to use this approach for a few years, but I am not a good trader, am not very good at selling funds near their highs, and not very good at buying funds near their lows. There are some posters/investors who do this, and can do this much better than me. I am not criticizing them, but I need a different investing approach that fits my strengths, while acknowledging my shortcomings.
    With that said, I am not a pure buy and hold investor, and I do keep up with total return performance data, and I will sell a fund during the calendar year when it is lagging severely, normally to reinvest those proceeds in other existing holdings that I am familiar with and approve of. I prefer bond oefs that will produce "at least" 4 to 5%, or more", annually, with low standard deviation, and relatively smooth upward total return performance, that have a history of holding up well in down markets. I will invest in 10 to 12 funds, with the intent of holding them for at least the calendar year, and at the end of the calendar year, I will rebalance my fund holdings, and may choose to replace some existing bond oefs, with similar but better performing funds. For example, I held BTMIX for the entire 2019 year, and I chose to replace it with another very conservative, but better performing Muni fund (AAHMX) for 2020. Another example is that I held PTIAX for almost all of 2019, but toward the end of the year, I chose to replace PTIAX with IISIX, because I believe IISIX will perform similarly in total returns to PTIAX over extended periods but with lower risk.
    Some more frequent momentum based investors, will criticize me for not jumping on the performance bandwagon, because there is clearly a hot performing fund, they will hype continually, during very hot performing periods like 2019. I like smooth, above average performing funds, to hold for at least a year, and at the end of the year, my loyalty is then subject to intense re-evaluation for holding, selling, and possibly replacing them. I don't marry my investments, don't take a vow of holding them til death do us part, and do expect a level of total return performance (at least 4 to 5% TR) that is reviewed on an annual basis. In 2020, my 10 to 12 fund portfolio has almost all of the same funds I owned all of 2019, but I did replace a couple of those funds, I did increase the amount of my investment in several existing funds, and I did reduce the amount of my investment in a couple of my existing funds.
  • *
    @dtconroe,
    I have enjoyed reading and following your thread on open end bond funds (oef).
    One of the things that I picked up on in reading this thread is that you are a momentum type investor and move among one fund, or funds, to another from time to time. Would you please describe your process in doing this? What indicators you may use? What triggers this movement? How do you track and follow these indicators and your funds, etc?
    I've been looking for an investing strategy that I might incorporate within my fixed income sleeve to keep it positioned within the faster currents. In the past, I've invested mostly in multi sector bond and income funds and let the fund manager find the better places to be invested while staying put with my fund selection.
    My fund's range of movenment between their 52 week low vs. 52 week high range from 2% on the low side to about a 6% range on the high side (low to high). I've been thinking of a way to use this range of movement within my investment strategy. One thinking is to buy fixed income when the funds are out of favor and towards their 52 week nav low and then to sell them (or even just hold) when they reach a 52 week high. But, in most cases things can often move beyond these established marks in downdrafts and updrafts. I'm thinking that it is time for me to put a bond spiff (special investment) in play sometime in the future and I'm now in the process of formulating an investment plan to do this. With this, I been thinking of using a long maturity fund as it's nav range of movement seems to be the widest among funds that I have reviewed.
    Again, I'm wondering how you govern and what indicator(s) you might use in picking funds and moving between one fund to another?
    Thanks, in advance, for your reply.
    Old_Skeet
  • What Lies Ahead for Stocks? We May Be Able to Foresee This Bette
    I enjoyed reading about Dr. Madell's five year rolling periods of stock market returns. I've noticed this, as well, and have incoropated the five year rolling total return period principal, to assist me, in setting my portfolio's rate of distribution.
    What I do is a relative simple strategy. Generally, I take a sum of no more than what one half of my five year average annual return has been. With this, my current distribution rate is now at about 3.25% since my total return on my portfolio has averaged about 6.5% annually for the past rolling five years. In this way, I have found that principal grows over time since the residual is left to increase and build capital formation. In addition, I'm running a 20% cash/40% income/40% equity portfolio which generates enough income without having to sell securities to meet my current distribution needs.
    I realize that this distribution strategy is not for everyone as I'm just sharing how I govern and what I have found that has worked well for me and my family through the years. I used this strategy, years back, whan I was running my parents money, when they were retired, and I now use it for me and my wife.
    Pretty neat and information packed study by Dr, Madell.
    If you are retired and in the distribution phase of investing perhaps others can learn if more investors post how they set their rate of distrbution coming from their portfolio. Naturally, there is the RMD withdrawal requirement that is in place on retirment accounts. But, many of us have money invested outside of retirement accounts. Perhaps, Dr. Madell can write more on some strategies in an upcoming newsletter.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    cc: @tmadell
  • 7 Best Vanguard Funds to Buy and Hold
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-vanguard-funds-to-buy-and-hold
    7 Best Vanguard Funds to Buy and Hold
    Vanguard funds can offer consistent returns and low costs for the long-term investor.
    By Rebecca Lake, Contributor Jan. 24, 2020
    U.S. News & World Report
    More
    In this June 7, 2018, photo the logo for the Vanguard Group is shown on correspondence in Zelienople, Pa. Vanguard said Monday, July 2, that it will stop charging commissions to trade most of its competitors’ exchange-traded funds.
    Picking low-fee funds.
    Vanguard funds are a popular choice among investors who favor an indexing strategy. With index investing, the objective is to match the performance of a stock market benchmark, such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. This approach may appeal to the buy-and-hold investor who's seeking the best funds to own for retirement. Vanguard's fund selection offers an advantage over competitor funds, in that they boast some of the lowest expense ratios around. Lower costs mean investors can hold on to more of their returns over time. Here are seven of the best Vanguard mutual funds for a buy-and-hold strategy.
  • *
    I do not or never have owned a "core" bond fund. I am not really sure what the benefits are. When comparing them to some non-traditional funds they are much more volatile. I will assume the higher credit rating in these funds are the attraction. It seems that many less volatile funds in other categories work just as well for ballast.
    Agreed for the most part at present.
    That said, I used to own a couple core/IB funds a few years ago. I recently jettisoned my last one, a residual holding in WAPIX, which was good while I owned but, but worthy future gains with it seemed iffy at best.
    I currently run with a spattering of munis, multis, nontrad's and one preferred stock fund. I own bonds only because I need to own them as ballast** for my stock allocation and would rather let respective PM's slice/dice.
    **Aside: Portfolio ballast to me is anything other than stocks.
    Either way one's preference on core funds or others, dt IMO is doing a GREAT job here of covering bond categories and topics, and I wish him continued success with this thread and those initiatives.
  • *
    "Gary1952">I do not or never have owned a "core" bond fund. I am not really sure what the benefits are. When comparing them to some non-traditional funds they are much more volatile. I will assume the higher credit rating in these funds are the attraction. It seems that many less volatile funds in other categories work just as well for ballast.
    Gary, the intermediate core-plus bond oef category, is very popular with investors. If you look at the AUM of these funds, they are pretty large, compared with non-traditional and multisector bond oefs. Their total return performance in 2019, and over their history, looks very compelling. They offer good diversification, with an emphasis on investment grade holdings, which minimizes credit risk. Many investors are turned off by the lower investment grade holdings of non-traditional bond oefs and many of the traditional multisector bond oefs.
  • Tsp funds
    Its a cheap money market with an interest rate floor of around 1.5%. You could invest in the L Income fund which contains about 21.5% in stocks, or set your allocation to the C Fund at 5 or 10 percent of your total TSP.
  • *
    Not too fond of that overall list, though it includes many of the popular names on forums, some of which I might consider owning, notably IICIX/IIBAX. I have owned Baird and DblLine in the past.
    Maybe take a look at this Fido screen. To me at least, the discussion of this category begins with Western Asset, specifically WACPX/WAPAX, the latter NTF, l/w at Fido.
    https://www.fidelity.com/fund-screener/evaluator.shtml#!&ntf=Y&expand=$FundType&ft=TBND_PI&msr=4,5&sortBy=FUND_PRFM_MTH_NLD_AATR_1YR_PCT
  • *
    This post is about Intermediate Core-Plus bond oefs. In general, this is one of the more popular bond oef categories, with an emphasis on Investment Grade Bonds, typically with much diversification in its holdings. Some refer to this category as Multi-Sector lite. According to M*, this is the formal definition:
    "Intermediate Core-Plus Bond
    Intermediate-term core-plus bond portfolios invest primarily in investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues including government, corporate, and securitized debt, but generally have greater flexibility than core offerings to hold non-core sectors such as corporate high yield, bank loan, emerging-markets debt, and non-U.S. currency exposures. Their durations (a measure of interest-rate sensitivity) typically range between 75% and 125% of the three-year average of the effective duration of the Morningstar Core Bond Index"
    Here are several funds in that category worth considering:
    1. BCOIX/BCOSX: Credit rating A, Standard Deviation 2.74, Duration 5.68, 1yr/3yr total
    return 10.84/4.86
    2. DODIX: Credit rating A, Standard Deviation 2.05, Duration 4.3, 1yr/3yr total return
    10.02/4.74
    3. JAFIX: Credit rating BBB, Standard Deviation 2.63, Duration 5.68, 1yr/3yr total return
    10.28/4.11
    4. MWTRX/MWTIX: Credit Rating BBB, Standard Deviation 2.87, Duration 5.92, total
    return 1yr/3yr 9.93/4.36
    5. MTGAX/MTGDX: Credit Rating BB, Standard Deviation 1.82, Duration 2.07, total
    return 1yr/3yr 7.41/5.10
    6. TGLMX/TGMNX: Credit Rating BB, Standard Deviation 3.07, Duration 5.80, total return
    1yr/3yr 8.46/4.04
    7. IICIX: Credit Rating BBB, Standard Deviation 2.83, Duration 5.94, total return 1yr/3yr
    10.63/4.96
    8. SGVAX: Credit Rating BB, Standard Deviation 2.14, Duration 3.00, total return 1yr/3yr
    6.82/4.29
    9. DBLTX/DLTNX: Credit Rating BB, Standard Deviation 2.08, Duration 3.89, total return
    1 yr/3yr 6.64/3.71
    Comments: I have owned many of these funds over the years, but my favorite funds are DODIX, BCOIX and MTGAX. If you have owned any of these funds, you are invited to discuss your experience with them.`
  • Are High-Yield Municipal Bonds “High Yield” or “Junk”?
    bee wrote about how muni bondsales might or might not generate taxable capital gains or losses. The fact that muni fund distributions are federally exempt is a completely different matter.
    @FD1000, bonds are taxed differently from funds. Sales are taxed differently from interest (bonds) or distributions (funds).
    Sure, muni interest, whether received directly from bonds or indirectly via distributions from muni funds, is generally federally tax exempt. That's the easy question. The harder question which @bee raised is how "gains" or "losses" are handled. A different matter altogether. And one where what you know about muni fund distributions is irrelevant.
    What many people think of as a capital gain on a muni bond (buying at a market discount and redeeming at par) is usually treated as ordinary taxable income upon sale. Unless the amount is de minimus, in which case it's treated as a capital gain. Or unless one has opted to declare the "appreciation" (accretion) annually as taxable ordinary income.
    I haven't even gotten started on straight line vs. constant yield accretion for muni bonds.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accretion-of-discount.asp
    IRMAA is not the only thing affected by tax-exempt interest. Tax credits for health insurance you purchase yourself is also based on a MAGI calculation that includes tax-exempt interest.
    That said, there are other MAGI calculations for different purposes that don't include tax-exempt interest. For example, the MAGI calculation for Roth contribution eligibility excludes not only tax-exempt interest but the amount of Roth conversions. (See line 2 of IRS Pub 590a Worksheet 2-1).
    The point is not to make assumptions about what is or isn't included as part of MAGI without checking the particular purpose of the MAGI calculation. That's what the 'M' (modified) stands for.
  • A Massive Gap Explains Why Muni Prices Are Testing Record Highs
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-gap-explains-why-muni-185947650.html
    A Massive Gap Explains Why Muni Prices Are Testing Record Highs
    /(Bloomberg) -- Over the next month, about $25 billion of municipal debt will be paid off. Bondholders will receive another $13 billion of interest payments in February. And mutual funds have pulled in nearly $7 billion of new cash already this month.
    Yet over the next four weeks, only a fraction of that money may find new securities to buy: American states and cities are so far set to sell just $13 billion of bonds in that time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg./
    We have stopped buying Munis hy and bnd in our sepira and brokerage past 3 months been buying more stocks...we are indeed overwt in bonds in our portfolio
    For mama retired portfolio we kept buying fbnd
  • Seven Rule for a Wealthy Retirement
    Thanks @bee. This is what I most enjoy about MFO - the free exchange of ideas. I am not a financial advisor or expert. Just my “gut” reactions (worth maybe a nickel).
    #1: Put It All In One Fund - Not me!
    #2: Create Your Own Yield - I like the term “stream of return” better. One needs to have a reasonably steady stream of return in retirement as averaged out over the short / intermediate term. This may be accomplished with a broadly diversified portfolio and some prudent hedging and / or cash reserves. Unless it’s a tax consideration, I don’t think it matters whether that SOR comes from “income” or capital gains - particularly in tax-deferred accounts.
    #3: Don’t Buy A Long-Term Care Policy - I’m agnostic on this one. Don’t know enough about the subject.
    #4: Cut Your Portfolio Management Costs - Yes. Of course. But I won’t be driven into index funds. I still retain confidence that the good actively managed funds will do comparably well over longer time spans, in spite of indexing being all the rave today. Active is what I grew up with. I’ll stick with what I know (but have owned index funds on some rare occasions).
    #5: Pay Off Your Mortgage Rapidly - Both sides are right. No correct answer. I’m happy to be carrying a small 3% fixed-rate mortgage on main residence. Also own a couple parcels that are paid off. Knock on wood - but I’ve been able to pull much higher than 3% annual on my (tax sheltered) conservative investments over more than 20 years in retirement. There’s an added advantage in having more liquidity at your disposal than if that money were sitting in the home. Like I said ... I can see both sides of this one.
    #6: Moonlight - Hell no (not me)! - but others will feel differently. I’ll say here that I perform a lot of home maintenance which others would pay to have done. So, in a sense, I am working. But it’s my schedule - not somebody else’s.
  • looking for the board member who was interested in LDVAX
    @LLJB
    I contacted the compliance officer at Leland and asked him to address the fund's use of swaps, leverage, the 4Q18 MAXDD, and your example of the Mastercard swap, from the information you cited earlier.
    His response: "Unfortunately, I can’t disclose any information beyond what is already publicly available. This includes the leverage ratios and specific holdings in the swaps."
    I'd like to make clear that I did not doubt what you said about these issues. I was trying to see if I could get more information but wasn't successful.
    So as it stands now, what you wrote is the best information we can get about issues like swaps et. alia., and as far as I'm concerned, that's good enough for me.
    IIRC, you have written about swaps before, perhaps one regarding DSEEX, and some have complimented you about it.
    (FWIW) for the year ended September 30, 2019, the Venture Capital Index Fund had realized losses of $3,446,758 from swap contracts.
  • Are High-Yield Municipal Bonds “High Yield” or “Junk”?
    Taxation of muni bonds is not so straightforward.
    Thumbnail sketch:
    - "gain" (actually accretion) due to OID is reportable annually as tax exempt interest (can affect SS, IRMAA)
    - "gain" due to market discount is taxable as ordinary taxable income (unless de minimus, which is reported as cap gain); may be reported annually or upon bond redemption/sale
    - "loss" is reported as amortized bond premium (ABP), essentially return of capital, on a yearly basis (see Form 1040-INT box 13). Cost basis is reduced accordingly.
    - any additional loss is reported as capital loss at time of sale.
    Simple examples:
    $1K par bond is purchased for $900 (no OID), redeemed at maturity five years later for $1K. The $100 "gain" is reported as ordinary income.
    $1K noncallable par bond is purchased for $1100, redeemed at maturity five years later for $1K. Each year, the tax-free interest is reduced by some amount (ABP) according to formula, which over five years totals $100. There is no loss; the adjusted purchase price is $1K.
    The best pages I've found on muni bond taxation are at InvestingInBonds.com.
    See http://investinginbonds.com/learnmore.asp?catid=8&subcatid=60
    See also: https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topics/learn_tax_info_year_to_date.shtml
    The fun really begins when multiple considerations are combined. You can purchase an OID bond at a premium to its discounted price, called acquisition premium. In that case you have to net the OID accretion and the premium amortization.
  • Are High-Yield Municipal Bonds “High Yield” or “Junk”?
    (link)
    Quotes below

    -High-yield municipal bonds typically offer higher yields than investment-grade munis, but carry additional risk.
    -A small allocation to high-yield munis can make sense for more aggressive muni investors—but today’s yields are low relative to alternatives.
    -If you choose to venture into this part of the market, we suggest you do so via an exchange-traded fund (ETF), mutual fund or separately managed account, to help with diversification and ongoing credit monitoring.
    -High-yield munis yield more than high-yield corporate bonds only for investors in the top tax brackets
    -High-yield munis have historically offered returns similar to high-yield corporate bonds, but with less volatility
    -High-yield munis don’t provide the same level of diversification benefits as investment-grade munis
    End quotes

    ============================
    My Comments based on the above:
    As the article said, HY Munis performance is similar to HY corp with lower volatility and why I rarely own a dedicated HY corp fund.
    I don’t agree with point 6.  I would replace the word diversification with ballast. HY Muni have more risk but also more diversification and sometimes lower volatility than IG Munis because HY react better to rates changes. Most times HY Munis is a pretty good ballast category unless markets are really bad like 2008. 
    As a retiree with taxable accounts, I invest a big % in HY Munis and since early 2018 I even use it in my IRA because its performance is very good with lower volatility. 
    An important point is that only high-income earners are really benefitting from the tax break and why I don't like it when a typical investor is looking for lower distribution funds and lose on performance.  If a bonds fund performance is 6% annually with 4% distribution while another bond performance is 4% annually with only 2% distribution, the first fund is still better after-tax.
    In the last several weeks HY Munis is the biggest category I own and more than 50% of my portfolio, this is by no mean a recommendation but based on my own goals.
  • How To Maintain And Compound Inherited Wealth
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinsosnoff/2020/01/22/how-to-maintain-and-compound-inherited-wealth/#3f98161f2f58
    How To Maintain And Compound Inherited Wealth
    First, a brief history of financial markets:
    Stocks beat bonds over a 25- to 50-year time span.
    Volatility of fixed income investments can equal that of equities in both directions.
    The market (S&P 500 Index) can sell at book value, now at two times book. Bond yields can range from 1% to even 15% when inflation rages.
    Thirty-year Treasuries, currently yield 2%, but in 1982 during FRB tightening hit 15%. Five-year paper, a comparable trajectory.
    Inflation, now at 2%, rose to 8%, early eighties. It made our country uncompetitive, as in General Motors.
    Dollar depreciation or appreciation can range between minus 25% to plus 25%.
    Deep-seated financial risk lurks in almost every type of asset. Banks capitalized at $200 billion can self-destruct with hidden bad loans. American International Group needed a government package of $180 billion to remain solvent after guaranteeing sub-prime loans.
    Municipalities, even countries, in turn can bankrupt themselves. Consider Greece and Venezuela. Brazil, Iceland and Thailand were world destabilizing forces through their overleveraged banks even though their GDPs were miniscule. Chicago, Detroit, Sacramento, possibly New Jersey currently and New York City some 20 years ago saw the wolf at their door.
    Puerto Rico now hovers near basket case status, even shamelessly falsifying their hurricane mortality numbers.