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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    Umm ... What aspect of a portfolio?
    I’m reminded of Patrick Henry’s “I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided”. That is that I want to be as disconnected from the major indexes as possible. I take roughly 30 seconds most weekdays to pull-up my financial app and compare my portfolio’s daily change with some other barometers. Up / down matters little. What I want (at 20+ years into retirement) is low volatility. Friday was a pretty typical day. My portfolio lost 0.03%. (That’s a bit overstated because it doesn’t include interest/dividends which accrue daily on many holdings.).
    Some other baramoters Friday:
    TRBCX -1.13%
    KCMTX -0.96%
    DSENX -0.68%
    VFINX -0.66%
    TRRIX -0.06%
    Split Benchmark* +0.01%
    * My combined split benchmark = 50% TRRIX and 50% RPSIX
    Readers will note from the benchmark that aspirations for growth are very subdued. Hey - I’m 72 and have already lived longer than I deserved based on earlier lifestyle. Why push the envelope and reach for return?
    I use a great (subscription based) app from Apple. Takes one-click and 30 seconds (or less) to view the relative daily volatility. Aside from that one measure, I could care less. Might spot-check YTD (at Lipper) on 5 or 6 funds once every month or so - purely out of curiosity.
    Disclaimer: I am not qualified to give investment advice. I make no recommendations to others. One size does not fit all.
  • moving, retirement planning
    My recent mantra for portfolio review is changing from "Core and Explore" to "Core and Income". Core is low cost, well diversified and simple. Income is high quality, diversified, and uncorrelated to the market (my core). Explore is a small percentage of an overall portfolio that may or may not pan out as an investment idea.
    Buffet's core is 90% S&P 500 Index / 10% ST Bonds...no explore here. The 90% of his Core is for growth and 10% for income during market downturns. Your income needs maybe greater than 10%, especially if your portfolio is small and market downturns last multiple years.
    It's a math problem.
    Say you need $1K of income each year:
    10% of 10K is $1K, but if the market downturn last 3-5 years you need $3K-$5K or 30%-50% held as income because this portfolio is so small.
    10% of $100K is $10K...you have the luxury of increasing you income up to $3K ($3K X 3 years) is less than the $10K you have set aside which is also still less than 10%.
    10% of $1,000,000 is $100K...this would provide $30K for 3 years...$20K for 5 years...without having to touch your core.
    Your income needs over a 3-5 year period should drive your income portfolio percentage.
    So, working backwards if you need $20K of income and your portfolio is $500k Using Buffets 90/10 portfolio as a guideline you would have to tweak it to 88/12:
    $20K x 3 years = $60K/$500k = 12% of portfolio (88/12)
    $20K X 5 years = $100K/$500? = 20% of portfolio (80/20)
    Second point, we explore too much...it's exciting, but not always profitable or practical.
    Do you consider MAPOX / PRWCX your core (55% of your portfolio)
    Do you consider PTIAX as income (Buffet's ST Bond) your at 4%.
    Ask yourself, how do these other funds fit into a "Core & Income" portfolio?
    Worry about "Explore" later.
    Age difference between you and your spouse:
    If TRP offerings simplify things for you, look at their Retirement Funds. Very inexpensive, very diversified. Very simple. PRWCX would compare well with a TRP retirement date of 2040 so I also can see this being your core, but at 36% its hardily "at bat" much. Maybe Pair PRWCX with 2 retirement different dated funds that reflect the age difference between you and your wife's ages. This would provide you with 3 core funds. When your 90 & your wife is 70, these retirement date funds will have transitioned with age as well.
    Finally,
    Manager risk is real. Institution risk is real.
    Some here would spread this core out among managers and among institutions.
  • moving, retirement planning
    When we move in a year's time, we will have HIGHER monthly expenses than we do now. I'll be on Medicare. Wife needs to be working, still 46 yrs old a year from now. She has exceedingly great evaluations from her current job. We're expecting it won't be a problem for her to find something, most likely doing the same thing. She'll get a stellar recommendation from our doctor-friend out there in AZ. Maybe she could even work at the same hospital as doctor-friend. (Janitor, making $15/hour right now.)
    Holdings: MAPOX 18.9%
    PRWCX 36%
    PTIAX 4.02%
    RPIHX 14%
    PRSNX 8.79%
    PRIDX 8.1%
    PRDSX 6.08%
    VSCIX 4.11% (wife's 403b)
    KISS It. Keep it simple, Stupid. Shall I "raid" and empty-out MAPOX with its quarterly divs, and redistribute it into my bond funds? I deliberately chose bond funds that pay monthly. to meet monthly expenses. RPIHX is TRP Junk Bonds, global. Not long ago, it replaced PREMX, EM bonds.
    I want to keep the lineup around 50/50 stocks/bonds. Morningstar X-Ray tells me I'm at 55 stocks and 37 bonds right now. I suppose that includes bonds held in MAPOX and PRWCX....... The rent and electric bill (A/C) will surely be our highest expenses. I bet the A/C and other appliances will cost us about $500/month through most of the year.
    If I unloaded MAPOX, then I'd have one less fund to worry about, and one less separate fund family in the mix. I would be ALL in TRP, then. Oops, except for PTIAX, and I do intend to keep and grow that one. Very good divs, though lower than during ZIRP days.
    AZ is not the best State for taxes re: retirees, but it's not awful.
    http://im.mstar.com/im/newhomepage/Miller_State_by_State.pdf
    Then there's food. Internet (common use room, not in indiv. apartments) and gym might be provided, depending on the apartment complex we choose. Booze. Eating out. Entertainment. Taxes. Gas. Insurance. Wife will ostensibly be able to get health ins. at her job. I do expect to buy a medi-gap policy to supplement Medicare. And my SS check will be smaller, paying for Medicare. My pension grows a tiny bit each year. Up to $700.00 right now per month. We have no revolving debt. We're collecting reward points and intend to take the offered cash, rather than to choose from the fancy menu of options offered by the credit card outfit. Our 2nd car will be paid-off before we go.
    The 403b can be rolled over. Maybe into the new job's 403b or to an IRA.
    This is a long post, but what thoughts might you have for me? I'm eager to hear.
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    "Marsico funds are not doing well since Tom Marsico left Janus."
    That would be the entire lifetime of Marsico funds :-)
    Actually they did do well for some time. After ten years (end of 2007), MGRIX had averaged 9.18% and MFOCX had averaged 9.64%. In comparison, VIGRX had averaged 5.12% and its LCG benchmark had averaged 5.21%. (The other Marsico funds are younger.)
    Marsico Funds prospectus, Feb 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047112/000094822108000010/marsico_485bpos-020108.htm
    Vanguard Index Funds prospectus, April 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/36405/000093247108001124/indexfunds485bfiling4292008.txt
    The family had lots of problems after that, including debt and staff (management/analyst) turnover. From M* Oct 2012:
    As Marsico Capital Management struggled with poor performance, outflows, and its own debt-laden balance sheet, Flexible Capital's Doug Rao used the fund's wide-ranging strategy to good effect. ... Unfortunately,... In July 2012 Rao left the firm and the fund. It's now comanaged by Munish Malhotra, who has a short mixed record at other Marsico funds he's helped run, and Jordan Laycob, who hasn't led a fund before. Furthermore, there has been a lot of turnover among the firm's analysts and the fund's fees are high.
    http://srt.morningstar.com/newsp/cmsAcontent.html?t=LMVTX&resourceId=570104&src=Morningstar&date=10-11-2012
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    All good questions. I know for myself what are the levels of egregiousness, or I think and say I do, but they would not be others', perhaps. I left Parnassus over WFC, and Herro (Oakmark) as well, when he denounced global warming a year or two ago. And now I don't know what to think summers will be like globally in 2 and 5 and 7 years, much less 10-20-30 years and beyond.
  • T. Rowe Price Fund Stays Top Notch With Blue Chip Stocks: (TRBCX)
    FYI: (The Linkster holds a position in TRBCX.)
    True to its name, $57 billion T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) focuses on blue chip stocks. More often than not, the fund gets blue-ribbon results. That makes it a standout among T. Rowe Price funds.
    And in the last five years going into Thursday, the fund has outperformed 96% of its large-cap growth rivals industrywide tracked by Morningstar Inc. So far this year, it's 18.93% gain tops 85% of its peers as well as the S&P 500's 7.58% increase. That's also one of the best showings among T. Rowe Price funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/t-rowe-price-fund-wins-with-blue-chip-stocks/
    TRBCX Is Ranked #1 In The (LCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/t-rowe-price-blue-chip-growth-fund/trbcx
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    Yes - “challenging ride”. I’m not speculating on the sector anymore (other than a small position in a real assets fund (PRAFX). But I once did. Crude bottomed at around $26 in early 2016. It’s now back above $70 (varies slightly by grade). So that’s been a nice recovery and puts the price within reach of the $100+ where it topped out around 2014. Nat gas (a byproduct of crude drilling) hasn’t budged since early 2016. Stubbornly holding below $3. That’s a constant curiosity to me. How do you spell GLUT?
    From an investing principal standpoint, I believe in maintaining a small exposure (5-15%) to the area of natural resources, of which oil is a part. However, from a pocketbook standpoint, it hasn’t paid off over the past decade. These kinds of cycles appear to play out not in years - but over decades,
    Funds? PRNEX (T. Rowe Price New Era) has always maintained a heavy exposure to the oil sector and is a well managed, reasonable ER fund).
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    Thanks @Sven...great additional information on your personal journey with this manager.
    Upside Capture has struggled while his downside capture, while not great short term is better long term:
    image
    Hard to find funds that do both of these consistently well.
    2016 Study:
    Ability to Capture Up Market Gains and Avoid Down Market Losses: The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    image
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    WF is the 3rd largest holding in both DODGX (don’t own) and DODBX (do own). In the latter (a balanced fund) WF accounts for 2.5% of holdings. WF is up 12% over the past year. I respect the decision of a manager to unload a company that has exhibited such poor ethical standards as WF. In some of the cases cited the reason for selling doesn’t appear to be based as much on ethical standards as the fact that a criminal investigation + civil lawsuits presents a whole new series of unknowns - detracting from the company’s desirability as an investment.
    I won’t criticize D&C for continuing to hold the fund. The question that’s often asked (and never fully answered): When one starts excluding from their investment portfolios stocks of companies with whom they have basic moral / ethical disagreements, where does it stop?
    Is marketing to the public destructive weapons better suited for warfare any less objectionable than peddling unwanted insurance or misleading a home buyer at closing? In the second instance, money is lost. But in the first, the consequence is often loss of life. Is marketing a highly addictive often abused medication any less objectionable? How about exporting high paying U.S. jobs to low-wage third world nations? Should you rid from your portfolio those corporations known to have cheated on taxes in the past or to have deprived workers / retirees of previously earned pension benefits? Finally, what do you do when the manager of your highly successful high-octane mutual fund voices support for (and contributes to) a candidate or office holder whom you detest?
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    @bee,
    Not trying to be nitpick here. Please let me clarify what I said earlier. Prior to forming SFGIX, Andrew Foster was the lead manager of several Asia-centric funds at Matthews Asia Funds since 1998. This places his track record back to 20 years, not 10 years. His stellar record is exemplified in Matthews Asia Growth & Income fund, MACSX from 2003-2011 (8 years), the Dividend fund, MAPIX for 6 years and the India fund, MINDX for 5 years.
    David Snowball has written a detailed profile on Foster's approach and I couldn't come close to write a such as thoughtful analysis. So here is the link.
    mutualfundobserver.com/2013/03/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgix/
    I started to invest with MACSX in 2000 when I noticed the fund is holding up much better than VWO during the height of tech bubble from 2000-2002. It taught me a lesson that those "tortoise" funds are more likely to be successful for their investors because they limit the downside loss. When the annual returns are compounded over time and through several market cycles, the total return can be fully captured. Many investors who move in and out of the mutual funds tend to have much lower returns than the market returns.
    Coincidentally, I also like MAPIX (Bob Horrocks), FMIJX (Alex English), and PRWCX (David Giroux).
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    An investment 10 years ago in VGENX has been a challenging ride. I really would like to get excited by this sector. A better 10 year play has been FSCHX which uses OIl & Gas as its feed stock or Utilities such as GASFX and FSUTX which transport and covert these resources into electricity.
    10 years chart comparing these funds:
    image
  • a second gentle reminder

    I guess if your goal is to chase everyone away except those who agree with you, you have made a lot of progress. I've noticed that a lot of posters who I have enjoyed reading in the past are no longer here. So, congratulations are in order!
    I agree with you, @little5bee. Used to be a good site, but now it is nothing but personal attacks and political snipes. Nothing has been done to clean it up. So be it.
    Please delete my user account here.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    M* has a long current discussion of SFGIX:
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/384620/3946110.aspx#PageIndex=1
    A poster there pointed out it is 50/50 EM/developed markets.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    @Sven. SFGIX hasn't been around for 10 years. Inception date looks like 2/15/2012...so closer to 6 years. I'll agree that it has out performed the index (a fund such as VWO), but SFGIX is not an all equity fund (closer to 70/15/15 over its lifetime).
    70% EM
    15 % of his fund is in LT and IT Treasuries
    15% of his fund is classified as "Ex - US Develop"
    I compared his fund to a "2 fund combo of PRMSX & PREMX" (70/30). The trade off here is SFGIX opts for US Treasuries where PREMX is most EM Corporates.
    Similar results...so nothing special here.
    But, over shorter time frames he does a good job of managing downside risk.
    I Like MAPIX, FMIJX, PRWCX for the same reason.
    Fund managers that manage downside risk and deploy into opportunities are hard to find.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    Same here. I'll be 64 tomorrow. Age, yes. Though I want to stay mostly in equities, while still collecting monthlies from my bond funds, because wifey is just 45, yet. And I get quarterlies from one or two, still. I let go of SFGIX because it wasn't producing--- regardless of age or anything else... Oops, 28th July, just past midnight in the East.
  • a second gentle reminder
    @little5bee,
    Wow, you have now gone completely off the rails, so if you're somehow incapable of engaging substantively or even owning your erroneous whattabout cheapshots, fine, just don't post it. Benghazi, Whitewater indeed. smh
  • a second gentle reminder
    Damn. I closed the wrong page. Had part of a contribution erased. Here we go again: SOURCES: How about well-known George Will? He has my respect and admiration. Thoughtful, intelligent. Even though I most often disagree with him, apart from his writings about baseball. I want to mention William F. Buckley, but he's passed on. And G. Will raised a disabled son together with his wife. THAT takes BIG balls.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-sad-embarrassing-wreck-of-a-man/2018/07/17/d06de8ea-89e8-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html?utm_term=.ec9c2cd14c1c
  • a second gentle reminder
    Seriously, Crash?
    No. Not seriously. I was being sarcastic, with a reference made by S. Bee in the video-clip. Anyhow, there's already enough dirt on President Pussy-grabber. And these statistics still are shocking:
    "Overall, 54% of women voted for Clinton, much higher than the 42% of women who voted for Trump. But when the women’s vote is divided by race, it becomes clear that black women actually largely drove the so-called gender gap against Trump. The majority of non-college educated white women (64%) voted for Trump.