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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Tariffs are the greatest!"
    Howdy,
    There have been problems with international trade FOREVER. Every country protects certain industries in various ways at different times. Geez, we've been subsidizing our sugar industry for ~200 years. This is why you have organizations like the WTO to resolve these ongoing differences.
    Ergo, while much of his rationale is true, I disagree with Trumps tactics, which are sort of a "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" approach. Whether it develops into an all out trade war or not, doesn't lessen the negative impacts this is having on our economy. Coke just raised prices to cover the aluminum tariff increase.
    It is never good when the government intervenes in the economy as it cause distortions and interferes with the functioning of the free market. The steel industry being protected will continue to be fat, lazy and non-competitive. In fact, it will get worse. The jobs created in steel number ~28K while the jobs lost already are pushing 500K. If you want to protect these workers, you Educate them to take other jobs. Find me a coal miner that wouldn't rather be making wind turbines or solar panels.
    Oh, and while we're currently blaming Trump, this craps been going on in Washington for decades by BOTH parties with officials so busy lining their pockets and selling us out.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Morgan Stanley GIC Weekly: 7/23/17
    @carew388, good catch with VDC as an alternative...I would be short VCSAX's minimum as well. PGLOX is a short lived fund from (17 $M AUM), but a great pedigree mutual fund house. Thanks.
    Even with its 1.05 % ER, PGLOX has clocked VDC:
    image
  • Manning & Napier Fund, Inc.'s World Opportunities Series (S class) reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000119312518225607/d568611d497.htm
    497 1 d568611d497.htm MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
    MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 25, 2018
    to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus,
    and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated May 1, 2018
    for the following Series of the Fund:
    World Opportunities Series
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with those documents.
    The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Manning & Napier Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) has approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) that would provide for the reorganization of the World Opportunities Series into the Overseas Series, a separate series of the Fund. The investment objective, investment policies, principal investment strategies and principal risks of the Overseas Series are substantially similar to those of the World Opportunities Series. In addition, the portfolio holdings of the Overseas Series and the World Opportunities Series have historically been very similar, and currently differ only with respect to position sizes.
    The Plan of Reorganization approved by the Board sets forth the terms by which the World Opportunities Series will transfer its assets and liabilities to the Overseas Series in exchange for shares of the Overseas Series, and subsequently distribute those Overseas Series shares to shareholders of the World Opportunities Series (the “Reorganization”). After the Reorganization is consummated, shareholders of the World Opportunities Series will be shareholders of the Overseas Series. The Reorganization is anticipated to be a tax-free transaction, meaning that World Opportunities Series shareholders will become shareholders of the Overseas Series without realizing any gain or loss for federal tax purposes.
    The Reorganization is subject to approval by the shareholders of the World Opportunities Series. Shareholders of record of the World Opportunities Series on July 23, 2018 will receive a proxy statement/prospectus that describes the investment objective, strategies, expenses and risks of an investment in the Overseas Series and provides more detailed information about the Reorganization. If shareholders approve the Reorganization and other closing conditions are met, the Reorganization is anticipated to close on or about September 24, 2018.
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, shares of the Fund, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy. When it is available, please read the proxy statement/prospectus carefully before making any decision to invest or when considering the Reorganization. The proxy statement/prospectus will be available for free on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov).
    Supp EXWAX 07/25/2018
  • Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041318002333/c91708_497.htm
    497 1 c91708_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    The Board of Directors of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the "Fund") has approved, subject to shareholder approval, a Plan of Reorganization (the "Plan") with respect to Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio (the "Acquired Portfolio") and Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio (the "Acquiring Portfolio"), each a series of the Fund. The Plan provides for the transfer of the Acquired Portfolio's assets to the Acquiring Portfolio in a tax-free exchange for shares of the Acquiring Portfolio and the assumption by the Acquiring Portfolio of the Acquired Portfolio's stated liabilities, the distribution of such shares of the Acquiring Portfolio to Acquired Portfolio shareholders and the subsequent termination of the Acquired Portfolio (the "Reorganization").
    Shareholders of the Acquired Portfolio as of March 29, 2018 (the "Record Date") will be asked to approve the Plan on behalf of the Acquired Portfolio at an adjourned special meeting of shareholders scheduled to be held on July 27, 2018 (the "Meeting"). Currently, preliminary voting results indicate that sufficient affirmative votes have been received to approve the Plan on behalf of the Acquired Portfolio, although shareholders still may vote, or change previously-submitted votes, through the time of the Meeting so that the preliminary voting results remain subject to change between the date hereof and the date of the Meeting. These preliminary voting results also remain subject to confirmation by Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc., the Acquired Portfolio's proxy voting tabulator. If the Plan is approved at the Meeting, the Reorganization currently is anticipated to become effective on or about August 17, 2018 (the "Closing Date").
    In anticipation of the Reorganization, effective March 2, 2018 (the "Sales Discontinuance Date"), the Acquired Portfolio was closed to any investments for new accounts, although shareholders of the Acquired Portfolio as of the Sales Discontinuance Date may continue to make additional purchases and to reinvest dividends and capital gains into their existing Acquired Portfolio accounts up until the Closing Date.
    A Prospectus/Proxy Statement with respect to the proposed Reorganization was mailed to Acquired Portfolio shareholders as of the Record Date. The Prospectus/Proxy Statement describes the Acquiring Portfolio and other matters relevant to the Reorganization. Acquired Portfolio shareholders may obtain a free copy of the Prospectus/Proxy Statement at www.lazardassetmanagement.com/docs/-m0-/67038/LazardUSRealtyIncomePortfolioProxyStatement.pdf or by calling (800) 823-6300.
    Dated: July 25, 2018
  • TD Ameritrade Latest Brokerage Refusing To Lead In Cutting ETF Commissions
    Of the more than 300 ETFs that TD offers commission-free, Mr. Hockey said, "five of those ETFs hold 20% of the assets."
    "There does get to a point where it gets to be too much," he added.
    This is nonsensical for so many reasons.
    At best, it's an argument for TDA to prune junk ETFs from its NTF list. It says nothing about what fraction of ETF assets reside in TF funds such as VT, VTI, BND, IVV, AGG, etc. All of these were NTF at TDA until eight months ago.
    What matters is not how much junk TDA is offering for purchase without a fee, but how much of substance it is charging fees for.
    Even accepting the faulty reasoning that what matters is the concentration of NTF assets in five ETFs, is 20% really so concentrated? By this reasoning, Will Danoff is also at the "point where it gets to be too much."
    The top five holdings of FCNTX amount to about 25% of the fund, and the fund has 330+ holdings, a tad more than TDA has fee-free ETFs. Does that mean that he shouldn't consider buying a new security if it is a good one?
    TDA made a decision to drop many popular, low cost funds. Vanguard offering nearly 2,000 ETFs NTF just months later makes TDA look like a piker.
    ETFs dropped from TDA's NTF list last November:
    https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/TDA1000834.pdf
  • The Closing Bell: Tech Stocks Lead Wall Street Higher; Boeing Weighs On Dow
    FYI: (T hit my stock portfolio, down 4.3%, VZ another big holding minus 1.17%)
    All major U.S. benchmarks traded higher Wednesday, with the Dow bouncing back from earlier losses, as second-quarter results point to strength in swath of American corporations. However, a handful of disappointing results—including from notable names like Boeing Co., General Motors Co., and AT&T Inc.—capped Wall Street optimism.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-24/asia-stocks-point-to-gains-treasuries-steady-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/tech-stocks-lead-wall-street-higher-boeing-weighs-on-dow-idUSKBN1KF1NQ
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-rallies-late-trade-deal-small-caps-lag/
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-in-holding-pattern-as-analysts-brace-for-trump-juncker-fireworks-2018-07-25/print
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/us-stock-index-futures-bumper-earnings-in-focus.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/us-bonds-and-fixed-income-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/dollar-euro-in-focus-ahead-of-trump-juncker-meet.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/oil-markets-fall-in-us-inventories-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/gold-prices-softer-dollar-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Mixed
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Repel of Excise Tax on Medical Devices - FSMEX
    You're quoting from the same NY Times article as I did. Brilliant minds think alike :-)
    Since you raised the issue of medical devices, I ignored the section on drugs. China doesn't export many drugs to the US. Right about now, it looks like there's a very good reason for that.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/07/chinas-vaccine-scandal/565943/
    Top line vs. bottom line - My understanding (see, e.g. the Brookings link I provided above) is that the tax was treated as a sales tax. To me that means the customer pays it. Assuming the customers continue to buy the same number of devices and pay the same total amount (including sales tax), then the manufacturers' revenue increases as that 2.3% is now received by the company instead of the government. Since the manufacturers are not the ones paying the tax, their costs are not affected.
    This differs from the Cadillac tax, where (again as I understand it), the tax is on the insurers providing the policies. Of course they pass that expense through, just as they pass their administrative costs and other costs through. There, I'd say that eliminating the Cadillac tax would reduce insurers' expenses (as opposed to increase their revenues).
    Is there a CPA in the house?
  • Larry Swedroe: Doing Nothing Best Option
    Hi Guys,
    Year after year for many decades now, study after study have reinforced a very consistent finding: active trading is a loser's game. Here is a Link to one of these research findings:
    https://www.umass.edu/preferen/You Must Read This/Barber-Odean 2011.pdf
    You need not read the entire article. The summary paragraph paints the predictable dismal outcome for most individual investors:
    "This research documents that individual investors (1) underperform standard benchmarks (e.g., a low cost index fund), (2) sell winning investments while holding losing investments (the “disposition effect”), (3) are heavily influenced by limited attention and past return performance in their purchase decisions, (4) engage in naïve reinforcement learning by repeating past behaviors that coincided with pleasure while avoiding past behaviors that generated pain, and (5) tend to hold undiversified stock portfolios. These behaviors deleteriously affect the financial well being of individual investors."
    Wow!! All bad outcomes for the investor who trades frequently. There's an easy lesson from these data that is all to frequently ignored. Too, too bad.
    Best Wishes
  • Repel of Excise Tax on Medical Devices - FSMEX
    Not to be too pedantic here, but isn't it a bit premature to say "That excise tax has been repealed"? I seem to recall a Rose Garden celebration when the ACA was similarly "repealed" by one house of Congress.
    That's not to say that I don't expect the tax to be repealed. After all, its repeal has been supported in the past by the likes of Senators Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, and Amy Klobuchar.
    Aside from the old chestnut "buy on rumor, sell on news", how much impact would a repeal of a 2.3% tax, one that's already suspended until 2020, really have on company profits (and hence valuation)?
    Medical device demand should be pretty inelastic. So the calculation may be simple - this could boost top line revenue by 2.3% (with tax revenue merely shifting to company revenue). With large medical device company profit margins in the 20-30% range, that's around a 10% increase in profits a couple of years down the road.
    In the meantime, these companies are facing higher costs due to tariffs on steel and aluminum. Again, assuming inelastic demand, that's a significant hit, now, on profits.
    Then there are the tariffs on medical devices imported from China (which seem to change month to month):
    Several companies, including Medtronic and Zimmer Biomet, have orthopedic device factories in China that export goods to the United States. ... Any products shipped from those operations to the United States would be subject to the tariffs. Medtronic declined to comment, saying it was still reviewing the proposal. ...
    By Friday [April 6, after the initial announcement on tariffs], the major medical device company stocks had dipped along with the overall market. Medtronic shares were 2.7 percent lower for the week, and Zimmer Biomet was down 2.4 percent.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/health/trump-tariffs-china-devices-drugs.html
    I doubt there were many people expecting the excise tax to ever go into effect again, so this is likely already priced in. Meanwhile, there are those tariffs. They're also likely priced in, though IMHO there's a lot more uncertainty with these - timing, magnitude, duration.
  • TD Ameritrade Latest Brokerage Refusing To Lead In Cutting ETF Commissions
    FYI: ( As a life long White Sox fan, it would be very hard for me to use TD Ameritrade as my broker.) :)
    Commission-free ETF trading appears to be the trend that isn't going away, but TD Ameritrade is the latest company to acknowledge it will not lead in the race to the bottom.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=U4JYW9_WLKvLjwTL6LbABQ&q=TD+Ameritrade+latest+brokerage+refusing+to+lead+in+cutting+ETF+commissions&btnK=Google+Search&oq=TD+Ameritrade+latest+brokerage+refusing+to+lead+in+cutting+ETF+commissions&gs_l=psy-ab.3...5434.5434..6990...0.0...57.57.1......0....1j2..gws-wiz.YNn5uajTYp8
  • Repel of Excise Tax on Medical Devices - FSMEX
    This area of business (Medical Devices) seems to have a natural moat (barrier to entry) that helps them weather market downturns, but these companies also are susceptible to litigation (law suits) since the stakes are high (an expensive life saving device should also carry a high standard of quality).
    These devices were being taxed (starting in 2010) to help shore up the expansion of ACA (Affordable Care Act). That excise tax has been repealed. I am sure lobby efforts by these companies play a role in this change.
    Stocks related to this tax repeal: JNJ, MDT, BAX, CAH, SYK, BDX, BSX, AGN, MMM, ABT, VAR, EW
    FSMEX holds most of these companies.
    image
    Story via Seeking Alpha News feed (Source):
    image
  • "Tariffs are the greatest!"
    Now that I have your attention @larryB...continue.
    What impact will tariffs have on funds?
    I believe @Catch22 tried to offer some help regarding your OP which had to do with funding "retirement without a pension".
    A worthy question that many here would be happy to discuss, but for some reason that wasn't worth retaining and instead you decide to react as if Catch22 was picking on you.
    Relax. We are all here to learn and share. Being a member since 2011 I hope you can appreciate that.
    For me, when it comes to political forces...I can't control the wind, but I can adjust my sails.
    Tariffs are a tax on goods and services and an added cost to business, but free trade isn't always fair trade.
    I'm brushing up on the topic of Tariffs which the US has imposed on trade as early as 1789. Tariffs were the greatest source of income for the federal government up until 1913. The US never adhered to free trade until 1945. We used tariffs as a form of protectionism for our industries and our workers.
    Tariffs_in_United_States_history
    What the US seems to be trying to protect today has more to do with intellectual property since China wishes to confiscate the intellectual property associated with the production of more and more sophisticated products. That's a problem.
    On the topic:
    trade-tariffs-are-not-the-endgame-intellectual-property-is
    As for your retirement portfolio, these market disruptions might be very good periods to buy good solid companies that have been temporarily hurt by this "unsettled news".
  • The Closing Bell: S&P, Dow Rise As Alphabet Results Boost Earnings Optimism
    FYI: The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.01% which hit a record earlier, pulled back from highs to trade lower buy a little over a point, or 0.1%, lower to 7,840. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since Feb. 1 as Alphabet’s blowout results bolstered expectations of a robust earnings season.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-23/asia-stocks-set-to-gain-u-s-yields-eye-3-again-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-lifted-by-alphabet-oil-metal-prices-boost-idUSKBN1KE1GJ
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/alphabet-leads-large-caps-small-cap-stocks-fall-lockheed-martin-bullish/
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-looks-poised-to-break-a-losing-run-ahead-of-earnings-barrage-2018-07-24/print
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/us-stock-index-futures-earnings-season-picks-up.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/us-bonds-and-fixed-income-economic-data-batch-in-focus.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/forex-dollar-in-focus-as-exporters-yen-buying-offsets-yield-jump-gai.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/oil-markets-oversupply-concerns-weigh.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/gold-markets-rise-in-us-treasury-yields-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Mixed
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • "Tariffs are the greatest!"
    From WSJ: "U.S. Sets $12 Billion in Farm Aid to Ease Trade Fight Impact"
    WASHINGTON—The Trump administration on Tuesday will announce a plan to extend some $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers amid growing concerns that the U.S. agricultural sector could suffer from President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute with allies, a person familiar with the matter said.
    The trade rift between the U.S. and some of its closest allies has prompted retaliations and legal actions following Mr. Trump’s decision earlier this year to impose tariffs of 10% on aluminum imports and 25% on steel imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU.
    The president has also levied tariffs on $34 billion in imports of electronic goods, machinery and other products from China, with another $16 billion expected in the next few weeks. He has also said he would assess tariffs on a further $200 billion on a range of consumer products.
    China, in response, has levied duties on $34 billion of U.S. products, covering 545 categories, ranging from soybeans, pork, chicken and seafood to sport-utility vehicles and electric vehicles.
    The farm goods were chosen to hit U.S. states that supported Mr. Trump just months ahead of the midterm elections, according to people with knowledge of Beijing’s plan.
    (More to Come) (that is, from the Journal)
  • "Tariffs are the greatest!"
    He is delusional. Just like they "love him in the UK"....
    image
    Prices for US consumer goods will only increase that much faster if we engage in a trade war. How is this good?
  • The 4% Rule For Retirement Savings Desperately Needs To Be Modernized
    Since, the stock market now sits towards all time highs perhaps some other retail investors that went through the Great Recession will comment on how they tranversed it. I am sure there were more ways than just one to do this with good success. A point of infomation about my above post. I did very little selling in my mine and my wife's IRAs and they recovered just fine although I did go towards a more aggressive equity asset allocation in them as the market began to recover. Note, we were not taking distributions from the IRAs when the Great Recession came upon us; but we were taking from the inheritance account to improve our standard of living. My answer now being in retirement is to hold more cash and take no more than one half of what my five year average total return is in my portfolio and to reduce spending during periods of market declines. In this way my portfolio grows over time so when a good market dip or swoon does come and the portfolio loses value my valuation drop want sting as bad as it otherwise would had I not grown its valuation. I'd sincerely be interested in learning what other retail investors did (within their own portfolio) to navigate their way through the Great Recession. Perhaps, we will hear from some that were taking distributions during this period and some that were within a few years of retirement as I was. With my current asset allocation I figure I can weather a 25% decline in the equity markets pretty well and have a portfolio decline of about eight to twelve percent perhaps no more than fifteen. Interestingly, this seems to be the amount of cash I currently hold (15%). Again, I'd reduce withdrawals along with spending. RMD's could if necessary get reinvested in mine and my wife's joint taxable account. My current withdrawal rate is about 2% of all the portfolios combined investment value. The portfolios generate income at about 3% plus any capital gain income distribution when combined bumps the total income yield upwards toward the 4% to 5% range. Again, an interestingly, I am holding about three to four years of portfolio income generation in cash.
  • The 4% Rule For Retirement Savings Desperately Needs To Be Modernized
    @BrianW,
    Thanks for your question as to how I transversed the market swoon during the "Great Recession."
    Without going into great detail; but, explaing what I did and why. My parents passed in 2004 so I got step ups on the assets I received from their estates. When 2008 came and the market began to pull back I was at about 70% equity at the time and I sold down when a position developed a 10% loss and continued to do so until I was about 40% equity. Since, a good bit of my investment wealth was in a taxable account this put a sizeable loss on my books. Also, I was at about 40% equity when the S&P 500 turnned upward at the "Devil's Number 666" and sitting on a wad of cash. As the market turned up I began to average back in asset classes that had the faster moving currents. Having a sizeable loss on my books I was able to reposition from time-to-time booking profit and using the losses to cover my gains. I was able to do this for a good number of years and getting my portfolios position pretty much like I wanted them. In time, I started reducing equity and again selling down equities as the markets continued to advance keeping my asset allocation in mind. In addition, I made some nondeductable contributions to mine and my wifes IRAs. Today, these nonductable contributions help as we take RMDs as they are not fully taxable due to the nondeductable contributions made. My accountant deals with this.
    Currently, in retirement, my family's portfolios combined bubble at about 15% cash, 35% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity, 25% fixed (bonds) and the rest in other assets such as convertibles, perferreds, commodities, etc. For what it may be worth I consider this to be an all weather asset allocation. In the past several years I have not done the buying and selling (repositioning) that I once did as I have fully used the losses. However, I still do some selling to harvest some of the gains over time but keeping joint income (husband and wife) back of the threshold for higher medicare premium assesments.
    There you have it ...
    Old_Skeet