FYI: The weekly AAII survey released this morning showed the first downtick in bullish sentiment (41.28% down to 35.09%) in three weeks. Given the weakness in the broader equity market, the move lower in bullish sentiment is completely understandable.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/individual-investors-showing-uncertainty/

What's the thinking behind the list of "Top Emerging Market Funds To Buy"?
It seems this is the top half (10/21) of US News' list of Emerging Markets Bond funds.
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/emerging-markets-bond
US News' rankings don't represent buy recommendations. They're just aggregations of five other sources of rankings ("Morningstar, Lipper, Zacks, TheStreet.com, and CFRA") , where those other rankings likewise don't represent buy recommendations.
https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/investing/articles/2010/02/23/about-the-us-news-mutual-fund-score
For example, for M*, US News links to M*'s star rating methodology. The star ratings are retrospective. In contrast, M*'s analyst ratings are intended to be used prospectively. But those aren't the ratings that US News is looking at.
With respect to funds that invest primarily in emerging market bonds, how about TGBAX? Aside from cash and short term (9 month or shorter) holdings in Treasuries, virtually all of this fund's bond holdings are in EM bonds (per semi-annual statement), and AFAIK have been for several years.
It has beaten all the funds listed over the past year (1.81%). It sports an ER (0.71%) that's within one basis point of the cheapest fund posted.
From the ETF column, we see that at least Jeff Reeves over at US News likes the idea of hedging yens and Euros. Now if one doesn't like having exposure to these currencies, why stop at neutral? That's Hassenstab's thinking (TGBAX) as well. "We also continued to hold net-negative positions in the euro and Japanese yen as hedges against a broadly strengthening US dollar..."
Semiannual report, June 30, 2018.

So, this time is different still applies, yes?
One may diversify to a point of a wash of profits potential.
Although it appears that the "save the markets" QE program saved our financial butts (U.S.) for the time being has worked......the price for this may have to be paid again.
The U.S. still remains the front runner in the financial turd pile.
The below chart has only a few non-U.S. choices. DXJ being the only close match for returns over the past 4 years. A longer time frame chart would indicate better performance for the U.S. equity market against others.
DXJ has much of its stimulus/growth from the Bank of Japan and its large ownership of Japanese equity sectors.
Wishing the best, to those, in choosing where to diversify globally for the positive benefit of the portfolio.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IXUS,IEUR,DXJ,FNMIX&p=6&O=011000
NEW !!! This WSJ article did open w/o subscription.........don't know how you'll do with this. NOPE.......won't open again. The link line tells much of the story for BOJ and its involvement with their marketplace.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japans-bond-and-stock-holdings-top-100-of-gdp-1542086889

https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/7-country-etfs-for-global-investors
Nov. 15, 2018
In the recent hard-fought midterm election, there was a lot of rhetoric about America's economic relationships with other nations. Whatever you feel about trade policies, it's important to understand that in 2018 it has been "America first" in terms of investment.
Compared with other major economies, the domestic stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index has outperformed. Of course, with a roughly 5 percent return since Jan. 1, that's not saying much – and as history shows, today's winners can turn into tomorrow's losers.
Whether you're seeking global diversification or to simply increase returns, here are seven country-specific exchange-traded funds outside the U.S. to consider.
1. Xtrackers MSCI Germany Hedged Equity ETF (ticker: DBGR). Many investors look to Europe for developed-market exposure outside the United States. And since Germany is the region's largest economy and one of its biggest political forces, that makes this nation at the top of the list – particularly amid sticky fights about Brexit that could cause problems for the United Kingdom's economy.
It's worth noting this isn't the largest fund to play Germany – that would be the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) with $2.6 billion in assets. However, DBGR is hedged against currency fluctuations. Both DBGR and EWG are in the red this year, but that hedging has resulted in moderately lower losses for DBGR.
2. WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ). Japan is the No. 3 national economy by GDP, behind China and the U.S., and that makes this a fund worth holding for serious global investors. Like the prior ETF, the DXJ is hedged against local currency fluctuations and is more of a direct play on whether the underlying stocks in Japan go up or down.
But again, a currency hedge alone can't keep this fund above water, and it has declined about 8 percent year-to-date in 2018 compared with a roughly 8 percent gain for the S&P 500 in the same period. – Jeff Reeves
Top Emerging Market Bond Funds to Buy
Fund Name Net Assets 1 Year Return
Payden Emerging Markets Bond Fund PYEMX $1.3B
-2.62%
PIMCO Emerging Markets Corporate Bd Fd PEMIX $137.1M
0.02%
Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opps Fund FEMDX $524.9M
0.56%
TCW Emerging Markets Income Fund TGEIX $4.7B
-2.59%
DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Inc Fd DBLEX $969.8M
-1.98%
Fidelity® New Markets Income Fund FNMIX $5.1B
-4.59%
GMO Emerging Country Debt Fund GMCDX $3.8B
-4.08%
T. Rowe Price Instl Emerging Mkts Bd Fd TREBX $407.8M
-3.68%
Stone Harbor Emerging Mkts Debt Fund SHMDX $1.2B
-3.51%
PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond Fund PAEMX

We cant have a recession with over 2.5% growth in GDP.

I believe something bigger. The start of a recession is always declared in hindsight. I think Oct. 2018 may be that start.

The equation shown in this blog subtracts half of the square of some variance (of what, it doesn't say). Volatility is often taken to mean standard deviation, and variance is the square of standard deviation. Thus according to the blog's equation (shown below) drag equals half the fourth power (variance squared) of standard deviation, i.e. "volatility".

It cites as its source a paper by Robert Becker, whom it calls Robert Decker. The expression there is correct. It's that equation that MJG has in mind, not the one in the page he linked to.
This blog also flails at simple things, like defining geometric mean: "Geometric mean is defined as the value of a set of numbers by using the product of their values."
What "value" is that? (Rhetorical question - it's the nth root of the product, where n is the cardinality of the set.)
All this quibbling aside about how this blog page can't quote its way out of a paper bag, the real problem is that that it never defines volatility. Papers that the blog cites, both the Becker page above and one by Tom Messmore discuss standard deviations of returns, but don't say that's what volatility means. AFAIK, they never mention the term "volatility".
In very simple form, all that these papers are saying is that if something goes up by 10% and then down by 10%, you don't break even.
(1 + 10%) x (1 - 10%) = 1 - 10% of 10% = 99%
When one gets to volatility, it is important to answer the question I alluded to at the start: variance (or standard deviation) of what? If one is going to equate volatility to standard deviation, this seems like a pretty important question.
The most obvious answer, given that we're talking about multiplicative (not additive) compounding, is to use the standard deviation of the log of returns. Logarithms transform multiplication into addition. For example, if one charts prices logarithmically over time, one gets a fairly straight line (assuming a fairly constant rate of return).
In fact, M* calculates historical return volatility using logs.
There's no "harm" per se in volatility; the "drag" is merely a computational artifact of simplistic calculations.
Here's a two part column on "The Myth of Volatility Drag" explaining this in more detail. FWIW, it's from CFA Institute (the organization that brands "CFA").
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2015/03/23/the-myth-of-volatility-drag-part-1/
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/07/25/the-myth-of-volatility-drag-part-2/
That's not to say that the term "volatility drag" is completely devoid of meaning. Kitces has a column where he explains how volatility drag causes Monte Carlo simulations to underestimate performance unless the software explicitly accounts for the "drag's" arithmetic effect.

The good news is that some Monte Carlo software tools, recognizing that most financial advisors report returns using the industry-standard geometric averages, already adjusts advisor-inputted return assumptions up to their arithmetic mean counterparts. However, not all Monte Carlo software automatically makes such adjustments.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/volatility-drag-variance-drain-mean-arithmetic-vs-geometric-average-investment-returns/

Sorry I was a little slow on picking this up as I was busy on the CG list.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834418016386/fp0036678_497.htm
497 1 fp0036678_497.htm
FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated November 13, 2018 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus,
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
dated August 31, 2018, as supplemented from time to time (the “Prospectus”)
Effective November 19, 2018, the Fund’s Institutional Class is available for purchase by all investors.
Also, effective November 19, 2018, the Fund’s Investor Class (which closed to most new investors on September 30, 2016) is available for purchase only by the following investors:
● Existing shareholders of the Fund’s Investor Class;
● Financial advisors with existing clients invested in the Fund’s Investor Class (i.e., these advisors can continue to add new clients in the Fund’s Investor Class); and
●Seafarer employees and their family members.
Please note the following about the Fund’s Investor Class:
● Some broker-dealers and financial intermediaries may not be able to accommodate purchases of the Fund’s Investor Class based on the criteria listed above.
● If a shareholder closes an account in the Fund’s Investor Class due to redemption or exchange, the shareholder will no longer be able to make additional investments in the Fund’s Investor Class.
●Exchanges between the Seafarer Funds (i.e., the Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund and the Seafarer Overseas Value Fund) and share class transfers are subject to any existing restrictions on, or conditions of, the Fund and/or share class that is to be acquired.
●The Fund reserves the right to make exceptions to any action taken to close the Fund, or limit inflows into the Fund, and delegates such authority to Seafarer.
INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

Ted is retired and made great strides past 40 50+yrs...i would get out too if I made 10000%

JENSX, Jensen Quality Growth estimate = $2.904 =~ 5.7% long term at the current price, less than a penny short term. 12/7 ex & pay.
Wuh-woh. Updated estimate = long term $3.945, or ~ 8%.

Hello @johnN, Old_Skeet has added to a couple of his bond funds when the US 10 Yr reached a yield of 3% and then again at about 3.2%. I have planned another buy at the 3.4% to 3.5% range.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/with-65-percent-of-sp-in-correction-maybe-it-is-time-for-bonds-again.html
anyone buying bnd?

http://m.switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer-expert/is-this-sell-off-a-correction-or-the-start-of-something-big/
The big stock market question whether the current stock market sell off is a correction and buying opportunity, or the start of a market crash, has been resuscitated overnight, with the Dow Jones index down over 500 points with a couple of hours left to trade (when I jumped out of bed).

FYI:
Regards,Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Ray Dalio, who is founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. Dalio has been a global macro investor for more than 45 years, having started Bridgewater out of a two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975. He is known for the practical yet unconventional theory of economics he spells out in his video series "How the Economic Machine Works," and is the author of the New York Times bestseller "Principles: Life and Work." His newest book, "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises," was published this month.
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-11-08/ray-dalio-discusses-major-financial-crises-podcast-jo96qfgi

Unless your guessing what will happen, I would own a small 5% or less of diversified fund, mostly china holdings. Will turn out correct eventually.

FYI: There seems to be no shortage of worries to keep a chief investment officer up at night. Yet, when asked for a quick take on the fixed-income market, Ken Taubes, 60, offers some consolation. “I actually think we’re getting back to a more normal economy, at least in the U.S.,” he says. “Even if the politics seem abnormal.”
The question that has for years been weighing on investors—how bond markets would react to rising interest rates—has largely been answered. “Most of the damage has been done, or it has been priced in,” says Taubes, who has managed the $5 billion Pioneer Bond fund (ticker: PIOBX) for the past 20 years. The fund has returned an average of 5.4% a year over the past decade, better than more than 80% of the Morningstar intermediate bond category; along with its peers and the benchmark, the fund is down 2.4% so far in 2018.
Regards,
Ted
M* Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PIOBX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/piobx
PIOBX Is Rand #22 In The (IB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/intermediate-term-bond/pioneer-bond-fund/piobx

I'm pretty much like @BenWP on this when it comes to cash and letting my fund managers handle stocks and bonds for me. In addition, I'll tweak my asset allocation and get more conserative with stock valuations being high by raising my allocation to cash and bonds and lowering my allocation to stocks. Within my stock allocation I'll also go more defensive by holding more of the traditional defensive sectors such as utilities, health care and consumer staples. In addition, my reit fund is doing well so I've been adding to it. Currently, I'm more towards 15% in my cash area and moving towards 20% ... in my income area I'm more towards 35% and moving towards 40% ... and, in my growth & income area I more towards 35% and staying there ... and, in my growth area I more toward 15% and reducing.

@Catch22- Well, as a (half) Italian veteran, I must admit that I'm pretty confused by all of this. It was especially irksome when I had to go to work on Veteran's Day, while my totally non-veteran wife got the day off. Then again, after teaching for 35 years in the SF Public School "system", perhaps she deserves to be considered an honorary veteran.

I am also wondering what people thoughts are about buying EM funds right now (I own both Seafarer Growth/income and Value funds). This is based on GMO recommendations (same GMO folks who were wrong about seeing a bubble when S&P reached 1500 a while back) and Research Affiliates (Rob Arnott). According to Mr. Foster (who I believe is a genuine person), one should be investing in China if one has a 20 year investment window. In addition, Mr. Foster recommends buying more if a China downturn takes place. At this point, everyone and their mother is aware of China's debt issues. Also I may have read somewhere that Munger (who is in his 90s) is overweight EM. I realize issues with currency risk,... but I am a fan of buying assets when they are on sale. Wondering if others are pursuing this strategy (Mr. Bogle is probably not with his US focus).

Hi all, One more question. Sorry. At this point in my life, I am more worried about downside protection vs. upside. As a result, I own the following funds with large allocation to cash: FPA Crescent, FPA International value, IVA worldwide, Pinnacle value, Artisan international value and Fairholme (please don't laugh). Yes, I am (and have been) overweight value which has not paid off in the past 9 years (just an FYI, not a complaint). In addition to the above reason, I bought these funds as I turned cautious on the market when the S&P hit 1500 a while ago and Mr. Grantham (GMO) warned of a bubble (boy was Mr. Grantham WRONG/EARLY as the S&P went ahead and almost doubled). Here is my question. On the one hand these funds could let you sleep at night. However, that comes at a price (sometimes heavy price) as they all charge fees above 1% (1.44% in the case of pinnacle value). Sometimes I wonder if it is better to sit in cash instead. Although I am hoping that the managers can buy at the right price in the case of a downturn (no guarantees). Wondering what your thoughts are. In hindsight, now might be a good time to pile in these funds (not a few years ago).

Since, I am in the process of moving some of my equity money found in the growth area of my portfolio towards funds that generate a good income stream I have PFANX under buy review along with INUTX. These two funds will be additions and held, if purchased, in the growth & income area of my portfolio. PFANX will be held in the global hybrid sleeve while INUTX will be held in the domestic equity sleeve. This will increase each of these sleeves from three funds to four with the new funds being minor positions with about a 5% to 10% starting weighting within their respective sleeves. I plan to increase new positions over time thur a position cost average approach.