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They reported earlier this week that their flagship Leuthold Core Fund (LCORX) had moved to its portfolio to the most defensive positioning permitted by prospectus. I suspect their ongoing concern about the market's health is reflected in the fund's changing beta values. Over the past three years, beta has been about .60 but over the past 10 and 15 year periods they've allowed it to live above 1.00.Today’s backdrop from an economic, liquidity, and technical perspective is very reminiscent of all three of those prior tops (1990, 2000, 2007) in ways that are too numerous to cover here. But one that’s especially worrisome is the blowout in spreads on low- grade corporate bonds. The yield gap between Moody’s BAA corporates and the 10-year Treasury yield is up about 50 basis points since the January stock market high, poking above the 2% level that preceded several U.S. recessions. Note the market tops of 2000 and 2007 featured similar patterns of credit deterioration just as the stock market was issuing the “all-clear” signal by breaking above its pre-correction highs. Credit patterns did not show similar deterioration leading into the 1990 bull market top; even the “bond guys” sometimes get it wrong. But we are not inclined to bet against their message here.Stay defensive.
Um.... @MikeM: yes. It DOES matter more. Thanks for so rudely dismissing what I asked about.If there is any solace for your 1 day disappointment with this fund, maybe this will help. From Oct. 1st to Oct. 29th, the S&P 500 dropped 9.9%. PRWCX dropped about 1/2 of that, 5.5%. No BS!!! Shouldn't that matter more?
Long ago when I was interested in this sort of behavior,
I found it helped to look at the movement in the top 10-20 positions of the portfolio.
You are both infinitely wise.If there is any solace for your 1 day disappointment with this fund, maybe this will help. From Oct. 1st to Oct. 29th, the S&P 500 dropped 9.9%. PRWCX dropped about 1/2 of that, 5.5%. No BS!!!
Shouldn't that matter more?
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