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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 10 Mutual Funds Worthy Of July Fourth Fireworks
    2 funds in above list weren't around at the time of the financial crisis. As per MFO, these are there DD numbers
    ETIHX -37.7%
    DMCRX -28.9%
    DD's for the rest...
    AOFIX -49.9%
    LAGWX -54.5%
    WAMCX -62.6%
    MPEGX - 63.2%
    PHSKX -77.8%
    PTSGX -49.5%
    PXSGX -46.5%
    BIOPX -48.8%
    Recently, Dr Snowball in his running commentary hinted about the amount of information overload we get on daily basis. I'm adding to that overload. Hopefully, I'm actually improving it.
    The point of the article beats me. If I want fireworks knowing I can lose 77.8% of my principal, might as well buy Bitcoin at these levels.
    SPAM is SPAM. Doesn't matter if it's on MFO. I do not need to have EVERY single link on the internet posted on MFO. Every google search from my finger tips is going to end up on MFO.
    NOT!!!
  • Amplify Plans ‘Black Swan’ ETF: (SWAN)
    FYI: Amplify ETFs recently filed for a fund that will look to protect investors from those rare, “out-of-nowhere” market downturns that are often referred to as “black swan events.” The Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) will track an index that invests primarily in Treasury securities and LEAP options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/amplify-plans-black-swan-etf
  • M*: The 3-Fund Portfolio
    FYI: 3 Is Company
    Three colors: red, white, and blue. Three funds: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX), Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VTIAX), and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBTLX). According to author Taylor Larimore, those are all that an American investor needs.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/871546/the-3fund-portfolio.html
  • 10 Mutual Funds Worthy Of July Fourth Fireworks
    FYI: While the S&P 500 Index barely kept its head above water over the first six months of the year with a gain of 2.65%, the 10 best-performing domestic equity mutual funds can blast the fireworks in celebration of some really strong performance.
    Source: CFRA. Excludes funds with less than $100M in assets and leveraged funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    1. Alger Small Cap Focus (AGOZX)
    2. Lord Abbett Developing Growth (LAGWX)
    3. Wasatch Ultra Growth (WAMCX)
    4. Driehaus Micro Cap Growth (DMCRX)
    5. Morgan Stanley Mid-Cap Growth (MACGX)
    6. Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth (PHSKX)
    7. Touchstone Sands Select Growth (PTSGX)
    8. Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth (PSGAX)
    9. Eventide Healthcare & Life Sciences (ETAHX)
    10, Baron Opportunity Fund (BIOPX)
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=tJY8W6HjBIPVjwTY2Ja4Aw&q=10+Mutual+Funds+Worthy+Of+July+Fourth+Fireworks&oq=10+Mutual+Funds+Worthy+Of+July+Fourth+Fireworks&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3640.3640.0.4969.3.2.0.0.0.0.109.109.0j1.2.0....0...1c.2.64.psy-ab..1.1.74.6..35i39k1.74.-Vfz1M-6LWc
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    FYI: Kenneth Heebner, once America’s top stock-picker, has found the going tougher these days.
    Heebner’s $768 million CGM Focus Fund fell 18 percent in the first half of 2018, the biggest drop among more than 900 diversified domestic equity mutual funds with at least $500 million in assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Index returned 2.7 percent, including reinvested dividends.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-02/heebner-s-18-first-half-loss-is-worst-among-u-s-stock-pickers
    M* Snapshot CGMFX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/CGMFX/quote.html
  • Hackers Take $1.4M From Connecticut 529 Plan
    FYI: Hackers breached 21 Connecticut Higher Education Trust (CHET) accounts and withdrew $1.4 million, according to Connecticut’s State Treasurer Denise Nappier.
    Nappier said her office received word of the breach from the TIAA-CREF Tuition Financing Inc. (TFI), which is CHET Direct’s program manager. CHET Direct is a 529 college savings plan with more than $3.6 billion in assets under management and approximately 150,000 accounts.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/hackers-take--1-4m-from-connecticut-529-plan-39586.html?print
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    I do wonder about spending habits and personal debt compared to 50-60 years ago. Back then, it wasn't so easy to get loans, mortgages, buy stuff on Amazon and Wal-Mart, purchase the iPhone and Sony Playstation 4. To me, it seems that it's much easier to spend your money than it was in the 1950s. Everyone ready for Amazon Prime Day coming up in July?
    Used to be we took time to save money. now we spend money to save time. I read that a while back.
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    I do wonder about spending habits and personal debt compared to 50-60 years ago. Back then, it wasn't so easy to get loans, mortgages, buy stuff on Amazon and Wal-Mart, purchase the iPhone and Sony Playstation 4. To me, it seems that it's much easier to spend your money than it was in the 1950s. Everyone ready for Amazon Prime Day coming up in July?
  • 7 low cost mf to love
    POGRX I own and like. PRDGX is decent but I don't own it.
    I would add BRLIX to that list. A .15 ER for a healthy mega-cap cross section of companies -- a great EQUAL WEIGHTED choice for someone that doesn't want to just own the market-capped index. I only wish it paid out quarterly versus annually.
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich?
    Duh - A silly question deserves a silly answer. That’s not to diminish the very qualitative thoughts on the subject by several respondents. (They’ve shown you really can make lemmonaid out of lemons.)
    My own take would be that most Americans are indeed rich when compared to the way we lived during my childhood. (They just don’t realize it.) Even the most affluent back in the 50s likely had only black & white TVs in their homes, telephones anchored to their wall with something known as a “phone cord”, and cars that were a struggle to drive lacking power steering and, for the most part, automatic transmissions. Add to all that: A math problem that today can be quickly solved with a $2-3 calculator that fits in your pocket took hours to calculate by hand back than. (The simplest of these weren't on consumer store shelves until about 1970 and sold for around $200.)
    So in one sense Americans today are richer beyond the dreams or hopes of Americans 50 years ago.
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    wtf are you talking about? That hardworking buckeye's wealth is the opposite of obscene, and of course in the grand plutocratic scheme is a mere large drop.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisakroll/2016/12/12/americas-richest-entrepreneurs-under-40-2016/#457a0c2d67c3
    That list is from 18mos ago; note the point where it goes below a billion. Study up.
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    Take the reporting in this Markewatch column with a whole lot of grains of salt. First item I checked ...
    Marketwatch: " having loving relationships with friends and family was one of the top three most popular personal definitions of wealth, according to the 2018 Modern Wealth Index.
    Cited source, Modern Wealth Index (Schwab), p.3:
    Define “Wealth” Unaided
    Having money/lots of money: 27%
    Being comfortable/enjoying life: 24%
    Having material items/being able to afford anything: 22%
    Peace of mind/living stress free: 19%
    Relationships/family/friends/love: 12%
    At least some of the polling results of the study are suspect as well. "Self description: I have a 401(k) or similar plan available to me at work: 26%". Contrast that with Pew graphic (2017) showing that over 1/2 of private sector employees have access to a defined contribution plan.
    https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2018/03/09/RT_Retirement_Plan_Access_and_Participation_Across_Generations_fig2.png
    Regarding being rich being a moving relative target ... There's certainly some of that, but one has to be careful here. One could then also say that being middle class is a moving relative target. Thus the middle class might not be shrinking; rather the boundaries might simply be moving as well.
    For example, one could define middle class as the middle three quintiles of income (or assets); that's a moving relative target. By that definition, the middle class could not be shrinking. By another numerical definition [Pew]: income between 2/3 and 2 times the median income, the middle class is indeed shrinking.
    Relative itself is fuzzy (relative to what?). One definition of rich: more money than I have :-)
  • David Snowball's July Commentary Is Now Available

    Looking forward to your 5yr update/review of RPGAX ... your initial writeup put it on my radar but I haven't bought into it yet.
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    Isn't being rich a moving relative target? So if most Americans had $2.4 million in personal net worth, wouldn't that amount cease to be the one necessary to be rich? Then being rich would be $62 million. The article also of course--like most financial propaganda pieces--doesn't mention that wages for the poor and shrinking middle class have stagnated when adjusted for inflation for over 35 years, especially for the poor who have seen wages decline when adjusted for inflation. Invariably these pieces blame people for spending too much on avocado toast, lattes and cell phones when the situation is far more complex and also inequitable than that.
  • Wise Quotes
    Hi Guys,
    Wise and prudent investment advice need not be complex. In fact, it often can be nicely summarized in a short quote. Here is a Link to 100 such quotes:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2014/04/30/top-100-money-quotes-of-all-time/#3ca75de64998
    I hope you enjoyed them and may even profit some. But 100 is a ton of advice. I particularly liked number 41. I realize your time is valuable and you are not likely to visit my recommendation, so I'll repeat good old number 41 now:
    "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. --Paul Samuelson
    Samuelon had it roughly right except nowadays you'll need more than the quoted dollars. Regardless, have some fun and learn too.
    Best Regards
    Added Thought: There are rules everywhere. Consider the 12 rules recommended for drinking:
    https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=3115&et_cid=3111724&et_rid=16688843&et_referrer=NULL
    They do make good sense. Good luck on keeping to them. The temptations are a challenge.
  • The Linkster's Asset Allocation
    I would like to hear Ted's personal thoughts or comments regarding how the tariff's may or may not affect his corn crop. There's tons of info and conjecture all over the web so let's here it straight from someone maybe directly affected. Then again maybe he eats it all or sells it from a stand out on the road.
    @Mark - Yep. Would be nice if @Ted would share more about the AG business. From what I’ve read, farms have grown larger over the years and, while 1200 is considered a nice spread, it’s not real big anymore in comparison to the largest farms.
    Never been on a farm. So this aspect of the thread has peaked my curiosity. Here’s an interesting article explaining how farming is actually quite similar to investing in the equity markets. Never would have guessed.
    http://moneygrower.co.uk/2015/12/stock-market-investing-is-like-farming/
  • The Linkster's Asset Allocation
    Agree with jojo. I think Ted laid it out pretty well for a general overview of investments.
    Sorry, but exactly "how aggressive" someone is investing in retirement NEEDs information regarding how much cash that individual holds.
    If I have 90% cash and 5% in PONCX and 5% in ETFs, is not aggressive. That's like saying if you take a photo of me at exactly certain latitude and longitude, at a certain distance, in a certain light, and wearing glasses that cloud vision, I look like Brad Pitt.
    I think people know I don't do bonds except for RPHYX and RSIVX, but they are a smattering of my total investments. If I simply total up whatever I've invested and not in VMMXX, then I will also be an aggressive investor. Fact is I am a wimp.
    Bottom line, if subject line says "here's my asset allocation", then it should say something like
    40% Cash (i.e. FDIC insured)
    20% Money Markets (e.g. VMMXX, etc. etc.)
    20% Domestic (e.g. VTMSX)
    10% International (e.g. VTPSX)
    10% Fixed Income (e.g. PONCX)
    Then there is also no need to say "its' aggressive" or "its not aggressive", yeah?
    A post such as above would not need so many more posts following it to ask questions. But I do understand we are all bored and this is so much better than Effbooking eh?
  • The Linkster's Asset Allocation
    Cash in a checking or savings account should not be included in an asset allocation exercise. This is purely investments.
    If the cash is already earmarked for near-term needs, than I agree with you. I also think it’s extremely important folks plan ahead at least a year out and have secure reserve funds for those near term needs.
    But, If the cash is being held back as a lever for potential investment at a later date (perhaps in anticipation of a more attractive market entry point or opportunity), than I would respectfully disagree with you. It should be included.
    Some investors believe in holding back some “dry power” for possible future deployment (in the form of cash). If that’s their purpose, than I’d vote for counting that sum as part of the overall portfolio. And I believe the questions being asked of @Ted (essentially to fully disclose his cash position on the investment side, if any) are perfectly reasonable.
    Agree with your underlying premise that cash held in a savings or checking account is unlikely to be part of one’s investment pool. However, it could be. One interesting case is Price’s ultra short term bond fund (TRBUX). In our own case that fund is held in both an “IRA” (comprising investment cash) and also in a “TOD” account (cash earmarked for near term needs). Regarding the “TOD” account (Transfer on Death in TRP’s language), I actually write checks against that account (minimum $500) to cover near term needs.
    Bottom line: When posting one’s holdings as a discussion topic (Let’s assume the purpose here is to provide instruction for others), I think it’s important to be totally clear.
    BTW - There is also a “gray area” in that many do hold a large cash reserve (5+ years worth of living expenses). The reason I most often hear is that this allows them to remain very aggressively invested with their invested portfolio. The problem with not counting that cash, is that its mere existence does in fact improve their long-term portfolio performance. So it’s adding to their yearly portfolio numbers - whether or not they want to admit it.
    If that's how you're thinking about cash then I do agree. It should also be included in any performance calculation of the overall portfolio then as well.
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: 6/29/18: Guest: David Snowball, Founder, MFO
    FYI: David Snowball, founder of MutualFundObserver.com, said in the Market Call that most investors are afraid of investing badly so they buy funds that are 'flashy, shiny and recently excellent,' a strategy that ultimately turns out badly by leading to panic and disappointment. Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel said the market appears headed for a slowdown, Greg McBride of BankRate.com discussed how few investors know what their real... Read more »
    Regards,
    Ted
    Slide Mouse To 0.36.33 Minutes
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/55125809?autoplay=true