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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)
    My thoughts and positioning follow. As we open September Old_Skeet is currently just watching the markets and has been building my cash position since late June as my market barometer indicated that the S&P 500 Index moved from being undervalued in June to being fairly valued for most of July and August and just recently moved into overvalued status. I'm thinking with the upcoming November elections this will provide me a buying opportunity should I want to increase my equity allocation or perhaps open and build a fall spiff position as I'm thinking stocks will go soft around election time. Currently, my most recent Xray of my portfolio bubbled my asset allocation at 17% cash, 34% US equity, 18% foreign equity, 25% bonds and 6% other assets. During the past rolling quarter (90 day period) my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX, -3.2%) along with my emerging market fund (NEWFX, -3.5%) went soft while my aggressive growth fund (AOFAX, +19.6%) ... a dividend strategy fund (FDSAX, +7.7%) ... and, a large cap growth fund SPECX, +7.6%) all had a nice upward movement. Overall, I made some good money during this past rolling quarter.
    So, for now, I just sit and await a good stock market pullback so I can put some cash to work (most likely in a spiff position) when the next buying opportunity presents itself as measured by my market barometer.
    In closing ... I guess, for now, I ponder as I am not buying, nor selling, while I continue to build cash awaiting a good stock market pullback.
  • Barron's Cover Story: A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet And Facebook Out Of The Tech Sector
    This is why ETFs like ProShares Ex-Tech (SPXT) will be picking up these stocks. My comment there:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/105938/#Comment_105938
    The point is that these firms don't just "dominate our digital lives", they dominate our lives. The value is in what they do (application), often more than in how they do it (technology).
  • Barron's Cover Story: A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet And Facebook Out Of The Tech Sector
    FYI: ( Make sure your watch the video, its very well done, along with the Sidebar "Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shift.)
    Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shif.)
    A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet and Facebook Out of the Tech Sector
    Photo: Javier Jaén
    Think of Big Tech and companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook come to mind. The firms dominate our digital lives, living on our cellphones and influencing how we interact with people, buy things, get to places, access information, and consume entertainment. Their market impact has also been huge: These four stocks have returned 33.7% annually over the past five years, on average, versus the S&P 500’s 14.5%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-market-shakeup-is-pushing-alphabet-and-facebook-out-of-the-tech-sector-1535762710
  • RiverPark Focused Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494928/000139834418013039/fp0035706_497.htm
    SUPPLEMENT TO SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED JANUARY 25, 2018
    On August 30, 2018, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of RiverPark Funds Trust approved a Plan of Liquidation for the RiverPark Focused Value Fund (the “Fund”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated on or about September 28, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”). In approving the liquidation, the Board determined that the liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders. To arrive at this decision, the Board considered factors that have adversely affected, and will continue to affect adversely, the ability of the Fund to conduct its business and operations in an economically viable manner, including factors such as low asset levels and limited future prospects for growth.
    Accordingly, the Adviser may begin positioning the portfolio of the Fund for liquidation, which may cause the Fund to deviate from its stated investment objective and strategies. It is anticipated that the Fund's portfolio will be positioned into cash on or some time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective as of the close of business on September 10, 2018, the Fund will be closed to new investors and investments by existing shareholders.
    Any shares outstanding at the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed. Such redemption shall follow the procedures set forth in the Fund's Plan of Liquidation. Final dividends will be paid in advance of the Liquidation Date. Any capital gains will be distributed to shareholders, if necessary, prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the Fund's Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares of the Fund into shares of the same class of another RiverPark fund if the shareholder meets the eligibility criteria and investment minimum for such fund.
    Any income or capital gains distributed to shareholders prior to the Liquidation Date or as part of the liquidation proceeds will be subject to tax. All investors should consult with their tax advisor regarding the tax consequences of this liquidation.
  • 10 great tech etf to buy
    10 Great Tech ETFs to Buy Now
    Aug. 31, 2018
    Most investors are fascinated with tech stocks. And why not? The information technology segment is the largest group within the S&P 500 index, with $9.8 trillion of the benchmark’s overall $46.6 trillion in market cap – good for more than 20 percent of its value.
    Whether its mega corporations like Apple (ticker: AAPL) or Amazon.com (AMZN) or small upstarts in emerging fields like cybersecurity and cloud computing, there’s always a big story somewhere in tech. There are a host of technology-focused ETFs out there, including both broad-based funds for diversified investors and tactical funds for those looking to play a more focused slice of the sector.
    1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). This broad technology ETF is one of the most popular ways to play the sector among all ETFs, with a massive $22 billion under management. Including both the technology and telecom segments of the S&P 500, the 75 components are a who’s who list of the industry with the top of the list including Apple, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Facebook (FB).
    Keep in mind, however, that this fund is weighted heavily toward Apple, which represents a staggering 16 percent of the portfolio. This bias is good when big stocks like these are doing well, but can be risky if things take a turn for the worse.
    2. Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT). Right beside the XLK is this Vanguard technology sector play that consists mostly of the same stocks, and also boasts more than $20 billion in total assets. However, there are a few subtle differences in the makeup of this fund – such as a more robust list of about 350 picks and the inclusion of payments processors Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) in the top seven holdings.
    And as is typical of a Vanguard fund, the expenses are dirt-cheap at just 0.1 percent annually, or $10 on every $10,000 invested. That’s a small price to pay for a one-stop shop. – Jeff Reeves
    Click here to continue.
  • New Ranking Finds Vanguard's Robo-Advisor Rules The Roost
    FYI: Vanguard is probably best known for their low-cost mutual funds and ETFs, but its robo-advisor service is earning superlatives as well.
    Vanguard’s Personal Advisor Services tops the first edition of “The Robo Ranking,” a report released this week by Martinsville, N.J.-based Backend Benchmarking, the publishers of “The Robo Report.” Like “The Robo Report,” the ranking incorporates the researchers’ real-time performance analysis of roboadvisor portfolios.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/new-ranking-finds-that-vanguard-s-robo-rules-the-roost-40582.html?print
    The Robo Report:
    http://webreprints.djreprints.com/4417810789355.pdf
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    All the responses have been informative and fun. My real concern is that there are discrepancies in the MFO tools. I knew that FMIJX had recently reopened. After all the FMI funds website said so. My concern is that MFO Multisearch tool did not reflect this. Equally concerning was 2 different risk levels given for MAPOX. I'm especially concerned if level 5 risk is the true MFO opinion rather than 3 because I am invested in MAPOX. Such a high risk for a hybrid stock/bond fund is too extreme for me.
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    Our American Funds AMCPX is also up ~13% for the year. Top 5 holding categories:
    Information Technology 26.13%
    Health Care 22.75%
    Consumer Discretionary 18.83%
    Industrials 11.10%
    Energy 8.61%
    Top 10 Holdings- nice spread of Health & Tech, not super-FAANG:
    NFLX Netflix Inc 4.70%
    ABBV AbbVie Inc 2.59%
    UNH UnitedHealth Group 2.27%
    EOG EOG Resources Inc 2.26%
    AMZN Amazon.com Inc 2.15%
    ABT Abbott Laboratories 2.08%
    MSFT Microsoft Corp 2.01%
    AMG Amgen In 1.80%
    TMO Thermo Fisher Scient... 1.77%
    ACN Accenture PLC A 1.60%
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    @MFO Members: MGGPX has slipped a little the last three months, however; since inception the fund has had excellent performance. YTD the fund is up 13.64% which is in the 6th percentile of its bogey, World Stock Funds. I highly recommend this fund.
    Regards,
    Ted
    1yr. 25.33% 4th percentile
    3yr. 21.61% 1st percentile
    5yr. 22.95% 1st percentile
  • SFGIX/SIGIX Open Again?
    Clearly. Trying to imagine why you would charge such a thing. Guess you have not studied in detail its changing fortunes the last few years. 5.5y ago DS mentioned its defensive stance to an extent (http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/03/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgix/) but not more recently (https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2015/05/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgixsigix-may-2015/). See also its M* star changes over time.
    In any case it invests in EM; who would think "philosophy should protect capital in down markets" of any such vehicle?
    It is fascinating to me to read that investments which do not pan out, or not quickly enough, are somehow the result of defocusing, as though effort and will and hard thinking and other notionally causal behaviors can and will preclude outcomes like @MikeM quoted. That's why I wondered if he doubled down on those overreacted-to stocks.
    I have been reading Foster for years, back to Matthews, interesting guy. But some months, and longer, the bear eats you.
  • M*: Taking A Bath: Lessons From A Big Fund's $9 Billion Capital Gains Distribution: (HAINX)
    Harbor is saying that it will realize all gains in the portfolio this year. If all gains are realized, any attempt to optimize by selling lowest gain shares first would be pointless.
    Still, I agree that the vast majority if not all of the net cap gains realized will be long term. That's for a few reasons:
    - Very low turnover (13%), so on average, investments have been held for 4 years. Think of a portfolio filled with investments held 8 years then sold; half will be under 4 years old at the moment, half more. In any case, very few holdings owned for under a year.
    - Net losses this year; YTD performance -2.73%. So holdings purchased this year may easily have dropped in value; at least enough so that short term losses should wipe out any short term gains.
    - New management building a new portfolio - it's very unlikely that the new management is buying securities now just to dump within the fiscal year. They're not about to generate additional short term gains with their own purchases.
    Here's the source for M*'s estimated 38% distribution.
    https://www.harborfunds.com/HIF_manager_change_QA.htm#7
    It's worth keeping in mind the dollar amount of the expected distribution, more so than the percentage. Harbor estimates that $9B will be distributed in cap gains: $4.5B already recognized, and nearly all of the $4.5B unrealized gains are expected to be realized.
    The current AUM of the fund is $20.8B, so that comes out to 9/20.8 = 43%. (This is just slightly higher than the 41% one gets by taking Harbor's high end distribution of $27 and dividing by the current NAV of $64.94.)
    So watch that AUM. As it drops (people sell), the $9B won't change, but the denominator will get smaller and smaller.
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    According to the Premium Multisearch tool MAPOX's risk level is 5. But according to the Miraculous Multisearch on the MFO (non premium) site the MAPOX risk is 3. According to the premium site FMIJX is closed. ("Open: No") but according to FMI's website this fund is open to new investors. Any thoughts about this?
  • SFGIX/SIGIX Open Again?
    I see no evidence that total assets is the culprit for SFGIX under-performance. 2.2B is not at all to high for an EM fund concentrated on large caps. Look at the T. Rowe Price fund, PREMX. It has 5.5B in assets. 2.2B for a large cap fund should not be a problem IMHO.
    Read what Foster says in his reviews. He is pretty honest about the funds short-falls and under-performance. Basically, wrong bets on stock picks, countries and sectors. He talks about how he thought he positioned the fund for downside protection - and it didn't pan out. Quite honest.
    The Fund’s poor performance relative to the benchmark stemmed from several holdings that produced acceptable financial results, but which disappointed some segment of investors (but not Seafarer). Many of these companies operate in the information technology sector, either in software or manufacturing: Venture of Singapore (a contract manufacturer of high-end electronic devices); TOTVS of Brazil (a commercial software company); and Delta of Taiwan (a diversified manufacturer of electronic systems and components). These three companies saw their share prices slump sharply in response to passable (but apparently disappointing) results. In all three cases, I believe the market’s response was grossly over-exaggerated.
    https://www.seafarerfunds.com/funds/ogi/portfolio-review#performance-review
  • M*: Taking A Bath: Lessons From A Big Fund's $9 Billion Capital Gains Distribution: (HAINX)
    I'm not sure what you're saying here. Is it that Harbor should have fired Castegren in 2000, since that's the last good year you identify? In that case, perhaps it was Ivy International Growth (now Ivy Global Growth) IVINX that had the right idea. Ivy induced Castegren to quit in 2000 by refusing to close its fund.
    More likely, it was Ivy, not Northern Cross that had no succession plan. I don't believe Ivy was expecting Castegren to quit. It plunked Reilly in as manager for 1.5 years, followed by McLachan for another year. Only then did it settle on a long term manager with Mengel. In those intevening couple of years, IVINX returned -17.26% (2000), -21.03% (2001), and -20.96% (2002).
    In comparison, HAINX had returns of -4.97% (2000), -12.25% (2001), and -6.38% (2002).
    For a frame of reference, TEMFX had returns of -3.67% (2000), -7.92% (2001), -8.64% (2002).
    Northern Cross had a succession plan in place. For almost two years before Castegren died, starting Feb 2009, Castegren was joined by Ducrest, LaTorre, and Wendell. For the two years of overlap, and the two years following, HAINX put up good to very good numbers: 17th percentile (2009), 31st percentile (2010), 17th percentile (2011), 17th percentile (2012).
    Those managers did not maintain their fine performance. However, the succession was planned and the fund continued to perform well through the transition.
    The lesson to be learned is when a fund does not have a smooth succession plan (successful or otherwise), you may expect a portfolio overhaul and large amounts of cap gains realized. Harbor just fired Northern Cross. That's what caused the gains to be realized.
  • US As % Of World Stock Market Cap Tops 40% Again
    FYI: Below is a look at each country’s percentage of total world stock market capitalization based on Bloomberg indices. (We only include the 35 largest countries by market cap in the table.)
    For each country, we show its current percentage of world market cap, where it stood on Election Day 2016, and where it stood ten years ago.
    Notably, the US has just recently eclipsed the 40% level for the first time since 2005. At the moment, the US stock market makes up 40.01% of world stock market capitalization. Given dollar strength, gains in US equities, and declines in most international equity markets recently, it’s no surprise that this reading is at multi-year highs.
    As the US’ share of world market cap has gone up, China’s share has taken the biggest hit. On Election Day 2016, the US made up 36.53% of world market cap, while China made up 10.21%. Since Election Day, the US has gained 3.48 percentage points, while China has lost 2.7 percentage points.
    China’s drop has actually moved it into the third place ranking behind Japan, which currently makes up 7.59% of world stock market cap.
    Behind the US, Japan, and China ranks Hong Kong (6.51%), the UK (4.49%), France (3.23%), Germany (2.91%), and India (2.83%).
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/us-as-of-world-stock-market-cap-tops-40-again/
  • M*: Can You Accumulate $1 Million Saving $14 per Day?
    FYI: Saturday's ABC World News aired an investment snippet on how Americans should prepare for retirement. The feature lasted just under a minute and a half.
    Consequently, there was no time to explain the numbers. Such are mass communications, and you will find no protest from me. This column skips plenty of details itself. However, I do have enough room to explore the segment's most dramatic claim: That somebody who begins investing at age 23 can retire with $1 million by investing $14 daily into a "low-cost S&P 500 fund."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/880879/can-you-accumulate-1-million-saving-14-per-day.html
    ABC News Article:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=86992&page=1
  • ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF To Change Index: (SPXT)
    FYI: -ProShares, a premier provider of ETFs, today announced that its S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF (SPXT) will be changing its index effective on or about September 21, 2018.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180827005589/en/ProShares-SP-500-Ex-Technology-ETF-Change-Index
  • M*: How Our T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolios Have Performed: Christine vs. Linkster
    Thanks again @davidmoran
    Re tutorial (noun) - Cambridge Dictionary
    1. a period of study with a tutor involving one student or a small group
    2. a period of study with a tutor and a small group of students
    3. IT a document or website on a computer that shows you how to use a product in a series of easy stages:
    Albeit, you used the adverb form of the word (which is rarely used). So to tie things together:
    tutorially: in the manner of a tutorial (Collins Dictionary)
    Here’s how M* describes Ms. Benz’s role and purpose: “Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz has developed a series of hypothetical portfolios for savers and retirees. These portfolios are offered as general examples for investors' reference. These portfolios are not personalized recommendations, nor are they investable products offered by Morningstar.”
    Hope I’m not nit-picking. Just trying to understand why I should be particularly interested in her advice over, say, someone like Ol’Skeet here who does a great job explaining his long standing bucket approach or the folks at T. Rowe Price who present models by example. (ie - I can take apart a given target date retirement fund designed by them and visualize how much they allocate to different funds or sectors.) I’m not saying Christine Benz’s is bad advice. Just asking why she deserves more credence than someone else who’s equally (possibly more) experienced?
    Nothing in Benz’s listed educational background (below) suggests any type of financial training or certification. All I see there is political science and East European history. Also, I’ve never thought of M* as an advisory firm. Always thought their forte was in statistical analysis of fund data. (But, I’ll admit to rarely looking at them.)
    Christine Benz’s Experience (Linkedin) https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-benz-b83b523/
    Director of Personal Finance
    Morningstar, Inc.
    2008 – Present (10 years)
    Director of Mutual Fund Analysis
    Morningstar, Inc.
    February 2006 – March 2008 (2 years 2 months)
    Education
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    BA, Political Science, Russian and East European Studies
    Lyons Township High School
    From Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Christine-Benz/e/B002PICOLS
    “Christine (Benz) holds a bachelor's degree in political science and Russian/East European studies from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. She lives in the Chicago suburbs with her husband, Greg. She is an avid cook, a political junkie, and a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan.”