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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tax Free investing for a taxable account?
    According to this piece in The Balance, the yields on AAA munis are typically about 80% of Treasury yields. I've seen figures that are a little higher, but that's in the right ballpark.
    What this means is that on average, unless you're in the 22% or higher tax bracket, munis aren't going to make much sense for you.
    Suppose you invest $1,000 in a Treasury yielding 2%. You'll get $20 in interest in a year. If you're in a 12% bracket, then you'll have $17.60 after taxes. If you're in the 22% bracket, you'll have $15.60 after taxes.
    If you'd invested in a muni yielding 80% as much, you'd have 80% x $20 = $16 interest. That's a good deal compared with the Treasury if you're in the 22% bracket, but not so good if you're in the lower 12% bracket.
    If you do a search on muni treasury ratio, you'll come up with sites with current data.
    R W Baird reports the current ratio (for 10 year maturity bonds) is 85%.
    Raymond James reports 83.5% (10 year), and says that last week the ratio was 80.2%.
  • @hank REPO market, JP Morgan, Dimon explanation from Oct. 15
    @hank et al
    Posted as fund discussion, as this may indeed evolve or devolve to affect investments.
    This is an expansion of your link post in the BUY SELL HOLD thread.
    I've read about the REPO since the start several weeks ago, though I have not posted any links.
    CHECK comments in linked report for other observations.
    JP Morgan/Dimon REPO markets statement
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD October
    Sold off one of my money market mutual funds since there has been news, of late, about liquidity concerns in the repo market.
    Here’s a Bloomberg story about what some are calling the “repo mess.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/repo-market-s-liquidity-crisis-has-been-a-decade-in-the-making
    After I fully comprehend @Catch22’s post re quantum computing *, along with why people are buying negative yielding bonds , I’ll try to get my head around repos. However, it seems to me that if repos came unglued it would throw many other global markets into turmoil - probably equities and, even more likely, funds that employ derivatives / leverage in pursuit of outsized gains. If you’ve been waiting for a sharp reversal in interest rates, this might be the cow that finally kicks the can over (to milk a metaphor to death).
    *Here’s a link to Catch’s quantum computing story: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/53776/google-has-given-us-the-first-experimental-evidence-that-quantum-speed-up-is-achievable-real-world
  • Google has given us the first experimental evidence that quantum speed-up is achievable, real world
    Well, this article knowledge is way past my knowledge base; but tech./science remains a valid investment area, in spite of irregular profit patterns over the years.
    Yuh think those NFL replays are pulled up fast now; the processing speed indicated in the link article will eliminate referees.
    Personal note: Nature Magazine remains an excellent source for scientific/technology studies. Published articles have passed through a peer review process.
    Wish the same peer review could apply to published articles regarding investments; in particular those market crash stories that remain in circulation !!!
    Okay, 'outta here. Enjoy.
    Catch
    From Nature Magazine:
    --- Verifying the solution was a further challenge. To do that, the team compared the results with those from simulations of smaller and simpler versions of the circuits, which were done by classical computers — including the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. Extrapolating from these examples, the Google team estimates that simulating the full circuit would take 10,000 years even on a computer with one million processing units (equivalent to around 100,000 desktop computers). Sycamore took just 3 minutes and 20 seconds.
  • BofA-Merrill Lynch, Raymond James Join The Commission-Cutting Wars
    Banks with discount brokerage arms started giving their banking customers limited free trades at least as far back as 2005. That was when Wells Fargo linked free trades to PMA (relationship checking) bank accounts. It even included free mutual fund trades.
    WellsTrade lowered its min to $25K in 2007, after BofA's discount brokerage arm started offering 30 free stock trades/mo in 2006. That was even before BofA bought the Merrill name and rebranded its discount brokerage.
    Until earlier this year, when BofA lowered its requirement to $20K, it had required at least a $50K combined balance and registration in its Preferred Rewards program to get free trades.
    Banks have been playing these games for decades. In the 90s, I held $5K of a T. Rowe Price fund (NTF but with an added 12b-1 fee) at Citicorp Investment Services to get "free" Citibank services. I currently take advantage of the BofA game, using it to boost the bank's credit card cash rebates.
    If a tie-in still works for you, that's great; I'm using one myself. But they are bank driven and qualitatively different from free, no strings attached trades. IMHO representing them as "a similar move" is deceptive. It would be as if you couldn't get free trades at TD Ameritrade without a TD Bank account and tens of thousands of dollars invested.
  • BofA-Merrill Lynch, Raymond James Join The Commission-Cutting Wars
    What that text describes as a "similar move" for BofA falls short of matching other brokerages.
    First, as noted above and made more explicit later in the article, its Merrill Edge platform attaches strings to "free":
    self-directed clients not enrolled in Bank of America or Merrill Lynch loyalty programs will now pay a flat $2.95 rate for all stock and ETF trades.
    You have to dump $20K into BofA/Merrill and open/maintain a checking account at BofA to get those free trades. Since 87% of "member" trades were already free, Merrill isn't really offering much here. It had been behind in lowering commissions ($6.95 vs. $4.95 elsewhere), and it's still behind ($2.95 without jumping through hoops vs. $0 elsewhere).
    Second, while trades in options may be free, exercising an options contract will still cost you $2.95. Unlike say, TD Ameritrade or Fidelity, where there are no fees to exercise options.
  • parent - child management teams
    David, if you can access the M* discussion forums here's a little bit on Fisher posted in the CEF Investing Board.
    Fisher
  • parent - child management teams
    This led me to uncover an interesting rift (philosophically) between Robert Stovall and son Sam.
    Unfortunately, they haven’t managed any mutual funds that I know of - nor have they worked together.
    “Father, Son Play Together but Invest Apart / Stovalls Are Split On Growth vs. Value”
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121339953151973707
  • BofA-Merrill Lynch, Raymond James Join The Commission-Cutting Wars
    FYI: (This Is A Follow-Up Article.)
    Welcome to the commission-free trading era.
    Bank of America and Raymond James announced commission-free trading programs of their own today, following similar announcements in recent weeks by Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade and Schwab.
    Raymond James announced that it is eliminating transaction costs for all stock, ETF and option trades for registered investment advisors within its Investment Advisors Division, according to a CNBC report. The decision will only impact fee-based accounts offered by advisors, who were paying $8 to $10 per trade.
    In a similar move, Bank of America announced that any customer in its retail banking loyalty program will now get unlimited free trades for stocks, options and ETFs via its Merrill Edge online platform.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/following-the-pack--bank-of-america--raymond-james-drop-some-trading-fees-52275.html?print
  • Will the Dow Jones Crash by the end of 2019?
    Absolutely not. I'm 100% all in stocks (via mutual funds). This bull has another 15 years to run fueled by demographics and technology. Of course, there will be corrections along the way, some of them steep, which the doomsters will proclaim (as always) as the end of civilization, but I'm having none of that nonsense.
    I believe right now is a great time to be buying risk assets - perhaps more so than in 2009. Stocks have essentially been building a mighty base over the last 18 months in preparation for an explosive move higher that will continue for years to come. As the stock market is the most efficient leading economic indicator, I simply cannot see a recession next year or for many years to come. A cursory glance at a basic S&P500, Dow, or Nasdaq chart supports this point of view. Are they collapsing or on a terminal downward spiral? No.
    Note: I speak as a 53 year old with at least 10 years to retirement. My circumstances and outlook may be different to yours and I encourage some degree of diversification no matter your age.
  • Tax Free investing for a taxable account?
    Ron - two muni funds from Invesco Oppenheimer which have been much discussed are OPTAX and ORNAX. Both have strong historical records. However, the expense ratios are high and they both have loads (sometimes waived depending on your brokerage).
    Here's a list of all the 4 and 5 star muni mutual funds at Fidelity sorted by yield. Don't forget there are several good ETFs out there as well. I hope you find what you're looking for.
    https://www.fidelity.com/fund-screener/evaluator.shtml#!&ntf=Y&msr=4,5&ft=MBND_all&tab=ic&sortBy=FUND_PRFM_MTH_30D_YIELD
  • CD's
    It may have changed, but 1.85 / 1yr was about the best at Schwab last week.
  • Tax Free investing for a taxable account?
    @Old_Skeet: Good afternoon. I took a peek at Yahoo & this showed up.
    Morningstar Risk Rating★★★★
    Number of Years Up26
    Number of Years Down4
    Best 1 Yr Total Return (Feb 3, 2019)25.29%
    Worst 1 Yr Total Return (Feb 3, 2019)-13.85%
    How does best & worst return happen in same year ?
    Think I will check else ware .
    Derf
  • Will the Dow Jones Crash by the end of 2019?
    I know a fellow named Catch22 who says that he knows a guy that really knows, and that guy says... Yes!!
    @JohnN: Using advanced logic and mathematical analysis, since there are two answers to your question and they both say "yes", then the odds are obviously 100% that the answer is YES.
    (Percentage of error in this poll is +/- 50%, unless maybe it is some other number.)
  • M*: It's Open Enrollment Season. Have You Taken A Good Look At An HSA?
    The data have been updated to 2020, e.g.:
    For 2019, plans with annual deductibles of at least $1,350 for individuals and $2,700 for families are classified as high-deductible; for 2020, those numbers inch up to $1,400 and $2,800.
    Not only the data, but links as well, e.g. the KFF link in:
    Thirty percent of workers were covered by a HDHP in 2019, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation; in 2014 20% of workers were covered by an HDHP.
  • CD's
    FYI: Just exchanged Tri States Capital Bank Pittsburg 2.350% purchased on 6/17/19 maturing today, for Merchants Bank Carmel Indiana 1.850% mautring 2/28/20
    Regards,
    Ted
  • M*: It's Open Enrollment Season. Have You Taken A Good Look At An HSA?
    FYI: For high-income investors who are maxing out other tax-sheltered accounts, the high-deductible healthcare plan/HSA combo is close to a no-brainer.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/777025/its-open-enrollment-season-have-you-taken-a-good-look-at-an-hsa
  • SEE THE MOVIE!
    Sure you mean The Laudromat, eh?
    The original report released in 2016, I suspect; has been forgotten, if ever know by 99% of the world population.
    A broad overview of the topic is HERE.
  • Will the Dow Jones Crash by the end of 2019?
    https://marketrealist.com/2019/10/will-the-dow-jones-crash-by-the-end-of-2019/
    Will the Dow Jones Crash by the end of 2019?
    The Dow Jones Industrial Index (or DJIA) is trading just 2.2% below its all-time high. But is the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) trading at a premium despite several macro-economic concerns? The Dow Jones Index is up 14.8% year-to-date and has gained over 50% in the last five years.
  • Small cap value outflows
    Hi @Paul, I'm not sure this will fully answer your question ... but, here is my take.
    I did a quick look using the etf JKL as my proxy for SCV and I charted the MFI (money flow) for JKL over the past 12 rolling months. It appears up until mid summer there was an ebb flow from JKL with a flow (flood) that peaked towards the first part of September with another ebb flow taking place which lasted to the first part of October. Since then, the tide has now turned with money returning. In review of the recent short volumes the bias is towards the longs. A little better than 60% of the stocks in this etf are above their 50 day moving average. In a red, yellow, green light analysis it would be green one for me. About 9% of my equity allocation is invested in the smid cap value style area which this etf covers. From a calendar perspective, I'm thinking, its time for the smids to start a fall upward run and possibly last through the first part of next year, or longer.
    In addition, this investing space has a good number of dividend payers with JKL having a yield just short of 2.5% which makes it an attractive choice for a special investment position (spiff).
    As reflected above, I'm already positioned for the anticipated party so no further action is necessary on my part.