And from today, repeating the above total figure, lest anyone think Krugman is (again) a 'what, me worry?' about debt; also the ramifications of not doing the right things with the debt moneys:
While we're all (rightly) focused on the constitutional crisis, CBO just projected a fiscal 2019 deficit of $984 billion — just shy of a trillion. No need to panic about solvency; but we should marvel both at GOP hypocrisy and how little all this debt bought, 1/
All through the Obama years, Republicans gave fire-and-brimstone speeches denouncing the evils of budget deficits — and blackmailed Obama into fiscal austerity in the face of high unemployment. Then they blew up the deficit as soon as they were in power, 2/
The deficit was $660 billion in fiscal 2017 (which ended on Sept. 30 and didn't reflect the Trump tax cut). So we've seen a $320 billion surge, despite a growing economy that should have brought the deficit down. That's a lot of fiscal stimulus! 3/
Imagine what might have been accomplished if we'd been willing to spend an extra $300 billion a year on infrastructure. Instead, it was mainly taxcuts for businesses and the wealthy, which were supposed to supercharge growth. 4/
In reality it's unclear at this point whether the taxcut did anything for growth; it certainly didn't lead to the promised surge in investment. 5/
A best guess is that the taxcut was a bit of a stimulus, but with low bang for the buck; and that its effects were offset, or more than offset, by Trump's trade war. So despite completely abandoning their pretended principles, Rs haven't gotten much. 6/
In particular, the idea that a booming economy would rescue Trump from his troubles on other fronts now looks farfetched. Moral: if you're going to be a complete hypocrite, at least try to do it right. 7/

Schwab index funds are cheaper than VG.
Managed funds:
It's so easy to find better funds than VG+D&C.
PRWCX is better than DODBX and most/all other allocation funds.
PIMIX isn't as good in the last 1-2 years but beat DODIX by a lot for 5-10 years. VG doesn't have Multisetcor funds. Don't fool by DODIX, it's also a light MS fund.
SPY is better than DODGX. USMV is better than both.
MFAPX easily beat DODFX for performance and risk attributes
Pimco bonds funds are better than VG bond funds
QQQ is better than POGRX.
Probably, Wellesley is the best VG fund and hard to beat for risk/reward unless you use 2 funds such as USMV+PIMIX.
Basically, the magic of VG is gone and I was always able to find better funds than D&C.

Compared 5 10 yrs data vnq kicking this fund butt... 5,%preload and 1+%annual fees not really standout either

FYI: Now that companies can handle almost every aspect of their business virtually, real estate investors might be relieved to know there’s still one business that needs plenty of physical space—computer data centers to store all that virtual information. Steve Shigekawa, manager of the Neuberger Berman Real Estate fund, has been onto this trend for a long time.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-tower-and-4-other-tech-forward-real-estate-stocks-51570613402?refsec=funds
M* Snapshot NREAX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/nreax/quote
Lipper Snapshot NREAX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/nreax
NREAX Is Ranked #14 In The (RE) Fund Category By U.A. News & Wrld Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/real-estate/neuberger-berman-real-estate-fund/nreax

POGRX lags QQQ for years now(http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=pogrx&region=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams={"zoomKey":9,"version":"US","showNav":true,"defaultShowName":"name","mainSettingId":"main","navSettingId":"nav","benchmarkSettingId":"benchmark","sliderBgSettingId":"sliderBg","volumeSettingId":"volume","defaultBenchmark":false,"id":"FOUSA05B59|FEUSA00003","type":"FO|FE","region":"USA","name":"XNAS:POGRX|XNAS:QQQ","baseCurrency":"USD","defaultBenchmarks":["",""],"chartType":"growth","startDay":"10/09/2009","endDay":"10/08/2019","chartWidth":955,"SMA":[]})

@Crash
>> That gov't deficit is already beyond ridiculous.
Don't forget that this chiefly is money we owe ourselves, and matters when it crowds out investment, which is not happening yet, though of course it might eventually.

That was the entire post I responded to. Just so that we're clear on "drivebys".
The Shiller quote was timeless. It was a conceptual statement. I can't tell why you say it doesn't apply fully today. Is that because:

• Today everyone is taxed the same and is owed the same amount, so that unlike the world of the 1930s, debt and taxes now cancel each other out? or
• Profligate spending today is less likely to crowd out private investment than in the 1930s? or
• Adding to today's large deficits would be for better reasons today than in the 1930s?

Interesting that you say that debt/GDP is key, when Krugman says that it is the interest payments (not the raw debt) that matters. He couches it in more dynamic (i.e. rate) terms, referring to deficit, not debt:
"[Krugman] then argues that... if the rate of interest on government debt exceeds the rate of growth, either the debt to GDP ratio spirals out of control or the government is forced to tighten fiscal policy." (From your wonkish cite).
In case you'd like that direct from the horse's mouth: "But this kind of debt spiral can only happen if the interest rate on the debt is higher than the economy’s growth rate." He goes on to say that "debt doesn’t spiral. On the contrary, it tends to fall as a share of GDP unless the government runs large primary deficits." (Emphasis added)
That's because a large primary deficit significantly increases interest payments even when interest rates aren't higher than GDP growth. How large do you think is too large? We're now at $1T deficits (admittedly fiscal, not primary) and still growing (AP, Oct 7, 2019):

The government ran a budget deficit of just under $1 trillion in the just-closed fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
The $984 billion deficit tally for 2019 came in more than $200 billion more than last year’s, despite very low unemployment and continuing economic growth. ...
CBO noted that deficits have been growing faster than the size of the economy for four years in a row, ending 2019 at 4.7 percent of gross domestic product.

" interest rates are still very low by historical standards" (from Krugman's opinion piece in the NYTimes that you quoted above). This begs the obvious question: what happens when the debt rolls over?

The article has solutions(see below) which I don't think are good ones:
1) When a fund lags, you can't predict it will do well in the next 5-10, it can be an underperformer for years to come.
2) Financial adviser? I can write 3 pages of why not
3) What I have done for years is to invest in only 7-8 funds max (in the last several years 4-5) by looking at 1-3-12-36 months good risk/reward and then select the best ones with 1-3 momentum. That lead to holding some funds for months and some for weeks and the exceptions, like PIMIX, for years. Each of my funds must do well if not, it will be replaced. I call it my NBA team, I'm going to the playoff each year but winning the title isn't guaranteed. I have my core players and supporting player but even the biggest stars are not immune from sitting out.
============================
From the article below
What can we do?
1) Have a predetermined investment process with a disciplined approach to buying, assessing and selling investments. To discourage myopic focus on a particular investment, build a portfolio of diverse strategies that perform in different ways and in different market conditions.
2) Be willing to accept periods of underperformance. During tough times, take your eyes off performance with a qualitative assessment. Understand a manager’s investment strategy and process: How do they make investments? Are they staying true to their strategy? Are market conditions impacting their strategy?
3) Work with a financial advisor who can help to maintain discipline, patience and a long-term focus.

The Fed's Powell just pledged to expand the Fed. Reserve balance sheet. That sounds (alarmingly) like a return to market stimulus via gov't notes and bonds? I'm bond-heavy, already. Systematically adding with auto-reinvest instructions to my funds. PTIAX PRSNX RPSIX. That gov't deficit is already beyond ridiculous. Uncle Jerome would be very plainly diluting the value of the dollar, still further. I can see $10 for a pack of butter at the supermarket. I did NOT just now specify a POUND of butter, which was customary until recently. We'll pay more to get less as every day goes by, as I've often said. How much butter will be in the package, then? 13.5 ounces? 13 ounces....???? And how many dollars will it take to get one Filipino peso? Currently, it's 50 pesos to the dollar. There will be a yooge cost attached to the FUBAR decisions which have been made.

FYI: It’s only natural for someone invested in a poorly performing active equity mutual fund to wonder if it’s time to make a change. Should an investor sell a fund if it trails its benchmark for a year? Three years? Five years?
Turns out, active equity mutual funds that beat their benchmark over a 15-year period experience a whopping nine years of cumulative underperformance on average! Conversely, and perhaps even more surprising, funds that ultimately underperform their benchmark over the same 15-year period cumulatively outperform over 11 of those years on average.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/10/07/how-long-can-a-good-fund-look-bad

FYI: Being a multiple—and repeat—winner isn’t a new experience for Joe Hudepohl.
As the youngest member of the U.S. swimming team at the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona, Mr. Hudepohl earned gold and bronze medals in the 100- and 200-meter freestyle relays. Four years later, he won another gold in Atlanta.
In similar fashion, Mr. Hudepohl just captured the “silver” and “bronze” medals in the latest round of The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly Winners’ Circle ranking of top mutual-fund managers. And this is the second consecutive round in which Mr. Hudepohl finished near the top of the rankings.
The gold medalists for the latest round are the co-managers of Akre Focus Fund (AKRIX), Charles “Chuck” Akre and John Neff. The I share class of their fund finished the quarter with a 12-month return of 20%. This year marks the 30th anniversary of Mr. Akre’s founding of his eponymous firm, Akre Capital Management, and the 10th anniversary of Mr. Neff’s arrival to join the team.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-silver-medalfor-stock-picking-this-time-11570414320
M* Snapshot EAALX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/eaalx/quote

FYI: Inspire Investing this week rolled out its fifth exchange-traded fund that invests in companies deemed to operate in a biblically responsible way.
The Inspire International ESG ETF (WWJD) tracks an index composed of 150 companies that have a minimum market capitalization of $5 billion and are described in fund literature as “the most inspiring, biblically aligned large cap companies outside of the United States.” (Inspire Investing defines large cap as having a minimum market cap of $5 billion, though the large-cap category is generally defined as starting at $10 billion.)
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/inspire-investing-debuts-faith-based-esg-etf-51999.html?print

I always enjoy reading Dr. Madell's perspectives.
Because of possible downdrafts in the stock market Old_Skeet, now retired, carries more cash than perhaps most. There are several reason for this. They are 1) it provides me an additional safety net should I need additional cash for unexpected expenses where I don't have to sell securities in a down market and 2) it provides me the ability to do some equity buying during down markets.
I'm now running what I call my all weather asset allocation (20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity) because it affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes portfolio volatility, and provides for long-term returns.
The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility.
The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type mutual funds.
The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide which helps offset the effects of inflation.
Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
Over the past five years, or so, the following years were up years for me. They were 2014, 2016, 2017, and thus far 2019 while 2015 and 2018 have been down years. With this, I now govern and invest with more caution than I did years back when I was in the accumulation phase of investing and had a higher allocation to equities.
So, for me, Dr. Madell's comments in this months newsletter offers up some good old sage thinking and wisdom. Hopefully, it will for you as well.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

FYI: Freedom isn’t free, and free trades aren’t either.
Charles Schwab Corp. shook the brokerage industry this week when it said it will cut commissions to zero on Oct. 7. Schwab’s move, which followed a similar cut by Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR 1.49% and has already been matched by rivals TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. AMTD 2.59% and E*Trade Financial Corp. ETFC 2.10% , is likely to be copied by other big brokers.
You no longer will pay a few bucks in commissions to buy or sell a security at these firms. But Schwab and other brokerage firms are in business to make money, and one way they often do that is by milking clients’ cash. When you trade for free, you still pay—at a different tollbooth.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-stock-trades-go-free-but-your-cash-is-in-chains-11570199582?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

FYI: WHAT’S THE BIGGEST financial risk we face? Today, many folks would point to the possibility of a recession, a stock market plunge and perhaps both. Indeed, those are perennial perils—but perhaps they shouldn’t be our biggest worries. Looking to lose sleep? Here are 50 other dangers we face:
Regards,
Ted
https://humbledollar.com/2019/10/50-shades-risk/

FYI: Growth in the world economy is starting to peter out, and perhaps even a recession ahead is not out of the question.
How should an investor react to the many questions swirling about? Will the trade war with China come to a positive resolution? Will economic data turn decidedly negative? Will Donald Trump be impeached, and if so, what will be the effect on the stock market?
Perhaps some readers might expect that a Newsletter such as this can provide them with a blueprint for the future, helping them make decisions about their investments. Unfortunately, my crystal ball seems as cloudy as yours might be right now. As a result, what any given investor should do next, if anything, is impossible for me to definitely answer. So much depends on what your goals are for your investments, how dependent your finances are on their performance, how long from now you anticipate holding them, how anxious you get when stocks are falling, and a whole host of other questions. Since everyone is different, all I can do is tell you what I am doing, and answer in very general terms.
Personally, I have learned from experience that it is usually a mistake to sell when the markets are undergoing a rough period. As a long-term investor, I nearly always have seen that fund prices bounce back, usually sooner than one might expect. So, as long as you don't need your investment assets for a long while, sitting tight would seem to make the most sense. That's why I believe investors' stock market holdings should always have a future-looking time of reference of at least 3 to 5 years. If you can't honestly be committed to that, perhaps you shouldn't have money in the stock market at all.
Regards,
Ted
http://funds-newsletter.com/oct19-newsletter/OCT19.htm

FYI: Sixteen-year old Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, spoke at the United Nations Climate Action Summit early last week. Plenty of people criticized her dramatic delivery. But nobody should downplay the importance of her message. We’re burning too many fossil fuels, cutting down too many trees and polluting rivers, lakes and oceans.
I’ve given investment talks in more than 25 different countries. People often ask about socially responsible (SRI) funds. Such funds include higher exposure to companies with smaller carbon footprints. They often filter companies that manufacture weapons, cigarettes and alcohol. Most SRI funds don’t include stocks connected to pornography or gambling either. Few Americans, however, ask me about these products. Most of the investors interested in SRI funds are from Europe, New Zealand, Australia and Canada.
Regards,
Ted
https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/are-socially-responsible-funds-now-more-attractive-to-americans

@Ted / @Crash: This whole "private window" thing is really nonsensical when it comes to paywalls. In this day of cheap-as-dirt computing power all any publisher needs to do is keep a simple database of paying customers. If your not on that list, or they can't tell who you are, that's that... goodbye.
Howdy, Stranger!
Think about it- right here at MFO if you're not listed in the member database, you can't sign in. If you aren't signed in, you can read but not comment. What help is a "private window" going to be in getting around that?

......Not much. But I recall when a little trick DID work: we could Google-search the title, and could read the thing through a different source. Anyhow, some good-natured member here at MFO sent me the full text. (I'll never tell. ;) ) I DID save enough to do alright in SOME circumstances: giving up some privacy is allowing wifey and I to live in "Paradise." In that particular article, I wanted to see what I might be missing, if there was an angle I'd not considered.
All the rest of you can eat your heart out! ;)

@hank
Yes. Lots of manufacturing then in the U.S., with little automation and the 5 or so other jobs created by large manufacturing.
ALSO, for 1964,65,66,67 and 1968; 1.5 MILLION young ones were pulled from any civilian work force number by the military draft. In addition, many of the ladies were still not in the workforce and folks did pass away at a somewhat younger age then, opening work positions.
Wonder if the math was different then to calculate the unemployment numbers ???
I.E., participation rate, etc.
Just some trivia.

If that (50 year record) unemployment figure is to be trusted, I graduated from college during the last year in which unemployment was this low (1969).
Wonder how well folks are doing on income and quality of life compared to than? It’s likely impossible to compare. But in Michigan, the UAW workers were happy in ‘69. Those were great years. 2-worker families could make $60,000+ in one of the Detroit or Flint “shops” (with overtime) as the guys called them. Unfortunately, they were largely turning out trash that fell apart quickly - and allowed the foreign makers to gain ground here. On that $60,000+ many auto worker families could afford second homes in the northern part of the state and also own and drive a pretty mean set of wheels. So it goes.
Re: Today’s markets - Miners had a good day - for a change. Outpaced the small bump up in gold. And energy finally had a decent up day. I’ll read all the above links later on today. Hopefully one covers the HK rioting which spilled over into Asian share prices overnight.
*Corrected the number. It was about a decade later after some serious inflation, that a couple might earn $70,000 or more in the auto workplace.

FYI: U.S. stocks rallied to end a volatile week, as the September jobs report and continued bets on interest rate cuts helped ease fears about an economic slowdown.
Job growth in the U.S. remains a bright spot, even as signs of weakness mount in the manufacturing and services sectors. Earlier this week investors worried about a potential downturn pushed the S&P 500 down more than 1% in back-to-back sessions for the first time this year.
But the index is now on track to end a rocky week with a modest 0.6% loss after rebounding Thursday and Friday. Stocks were buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates to shore up the economy and sustain the current expansion.
Investors are betting the Fed will slash rates as soon as October, and Friday’s jobs report did little to alter those views. Even though the U.S. economy has been more resilient than others around the world, surveys of manufacturing and service-sector activity have hinted at future weakness that could eventually trickle into the labor market.
The S&P lurched higher 1.42% Friday on broad-based gains, which accelerated later in the session. Only the index’s energy sector traded lower on the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 371 points, 1.42%. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.40%. The S&P 500 and Dow remained on track for their third consecutive week of losses, while the Nasdaq turned positive for the week.
Among the concerning reports that rattled markets this week: U.S. factory activity contracted for a second straight month and hit a 10-year low and the pace of growth in the services sector slowed as well.
Investors’ reliance on the Fed as a backstop was on display Thursday, when the Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index hit a three-year low. Stocks initially dropped sharply, but then swung higher as investors ramped up bets that the Fed will slash rates again this year after two cuts in the third quarter.
Traders are betting on a roughly 42% chance of the central bank lowering its benchmark short-term interest rate two more times by the end of the year, according to the CME Group, up from 20% last week.
Friday’s jobs report showed the economy added 136,000 jobs in September, slightly missing estimates of 140,000 jobs. But the jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.7% in August, marking a 50-year low.
Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.7%, after suffering heavy losses earlier in the week. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.3%. And Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.1% after the city’s chief executive said a ban would be implemented on wearing masks at public gatherings, with penalties of up to a year in jail and a fine.
Stock markets in mainland China were closed.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-04/your-evening-briefing
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-to-open-lower-in-turbulent-week-as-wall-street-awaits-crucial-september-jobs-report-2019-10-04/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-ahead-of-jobs-report-11570177046
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-03/asia-stocks-to-edge-higher-treasuries-climb-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-surges-300-points-stocks-rally-time-to-buy-apple/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/dow-futures-nonfarm-payrolls-due-october-report.html
Reuters:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-dow-headed-for-best-day-in-a-month-after-goldilocks-jobs-data-idUKKBN1WJ1CB
U.K:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-100-snatches-gains-at-the-end-of-its-worst-week-in-a-year-idUKKBN1WJ0OM
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/u-s-data-lifts-european-shares-but-they-log-worst-week-in-one-year-idUSKBN1WJ0PR
Asia:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/asia-markets-october-4-us-payrolls-global-economy-currencies.html
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/treasury-yields-cautious-ahead-of-nonfarm-payrolls.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/forex-markets-us-economy-in-focus.html
Oil
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/oil-markets-global-economy-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/gold-markets-us-economy-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
https://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/fut