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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold BKSY for a short-term 72% gain in 2025. Earnings on Thurs, but wanted to lighten up on some of my more volatile positions. If it drops, I will re-enter ... I like this company.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    To align survey workload with resource levels [budget cuts], BLS suspended data collection for portions of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) sample in select areas across the country starting in April. In April, BLS suspended CPI data collection entirely in Lincoln, NE and Provo, UT. In June, BLS suspended collection entirely in Buffalo, NY.  Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average.
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2025/more-information-collection-reduction.htm
    It's a pleasure reading so many knowledgeable comments on how these statistics and statistics in general work. What @DrVenture wrote about speed vs. accuracy ("pick your poison") is textbook Information Science. For example, "breaking news" stories are immediate and often inaccurate or incomplete. Follow-ups in ensuing days are better, but of little help if first responders are needed immediately. And it's through the lens of history (years or decades) that one gets a more robust picture of events.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    "From now on, all jobs numbers will be coming from the guy who says he's 6'3 and weighs 215."
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    Good luck with any of these when it comes to OEFs that converted to ETFs.
    I'm looking at Lazard Int'l Dynamic Equity ETF (IEQ), formerly Lazard Int'l Equity Advantage (IEAIX).
    Morningstar splices the two sets of returns together. TF and PV do not. While TF offers the OEF (through mid May 2025), I can't seem to find more recent ETF data (under IEQ or any other ticker/name). While PV offers data for Lazard Int'l Dynamic Equity ETF both pre-conversion (IEAIX) and post-conversion (IEQ), it doesn't have a ticker that gives the combined, spliced performance. At least I can't find any.
    TF also seems to have a boundary issue. It claims that IEAIX began on Jan 4, 2016. In reality the fund began in 2015. So TF reports the 2016 performance as +0.51%. That matches what the M* chart says for 1/4/16 through 12/31/16. But the true 2016 performance (as reported both by Morningstar and by Lazard) was -1.13%.
    All the tools are nice as far as they go. Though professional strength they are not. However, the price is right :-)
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    “If the employers replying late happen to give different information from the first batch,
    as happened this summer, big revisions are likely.
    For example, Friday’s data showed that in May and June, there were about 109,000 fewer jobs
    for educators at state and local governments than previously thought.
    Late-responding schools were responsible for the bulk of that revision,
    said Omair Sharif, founder of analytics firm Inflation Insights.”

    “'The decline in response rates for the initial release, that’s just going to make the range of revisions larger,'
    said Jonathan Pingle, an economist at UBS.
    'They’re getting a significantly larger amount of incremental information after the initial deadline.'”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/real-strains-inside-the-bls-made-it-vulnerable-to-trump-s-accusations/ar-AA1JU5vg
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    @AndyJ,
    On March 28th of this year, the Education Department abruptly cancelled extensions
    it previously granted which allowed states/schools additional time to spend COVID relief funds.
    Although I can't draw a definitive conclusion, it seems plausible that losing ESSER funding
    could have caused significant job losses in the state/local education sector.
    McMahon said in her letter to state schools chiefs that it would now consider extensions
    'on an individual project-specific basis.' It asked states to submit a statement explaining
    why an extension is 'necessary to mitigate the effects of COVID on American students’
    education' and 'why the Department should exercise its discretion to grant your request.'”

    https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/linda-mcmahon-abruptly-tells-states-their-time-to-spend-covid-relief-has-passed/2025/03
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    "It should also be noted that the BLS compiles inflation as well as employment data, so, moving forward, significant doubt could surround the credibility of the two most important economic indicators for the U.S. - and perhaps the world."
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trading-day-stocks-bounce-back-210326952.html
  • Tariffs
    I've said this for years but what we're witnessing is the last gasp efforts of old white men to remain in power. They'll be able to do it for a while (another 5-10 years) with gerrymandering, voter suppression etc... but eventually they will lose power. They can't handle the browning of America. It's just a matter of time.
  • IShares Active Infrastructure ETF
    Looking at both GLIFX and BILT, the over concentration that seems most stark is in Utilities. Both are over 50%.
    Blackrock has a pretty good record in "Utilities and infrastructure " funds, like BUI. The latter, a CE, however is now trading at a premium and supports it's constant payout with ROC.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    It is interesting that people defending DJT running ram shod over dedicated public servants want us to believe the BLS is like a public corporation which produces earnings and profit statements from their own data. Therefore the fact that numbers were revised is indicative of incompetence.
    Leaving aside the fact that many COFs cook the books to present the most favorable set of numbers they can to please the boss and the market, a simple search would tell you how different these two roles are.
    Well going forward maybe they will not be very different, as the new BLS will be hired to cook the books.
    https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm
    The estimate of employment change is based on a monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites, selected to represent the millions of businesses throughout the country. (For simplicity, we will refer to worksites as businesses even though many individual businesses provide data for multiple worksites.) In the survey sample, businesses report the total number of people who worked or received pay during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Although BLS uses a variety of methods to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In 2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time of the initial release was 73.1 percent.
    The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    Hi @Old_Joe
    The below is a very good overview. The report is widely followed, and the data is announced and discussed at/on Bloomberg and CNBC tv business programs, and others.
    ADP report
    The ADP National Employment Report (also known as the ADP Report) is a monthly report that provides an independent measure of the US labor market's private sector.
    Here's a breakdown of the key information about the ADP report:
    1. What it is
    The ADP National Employment Report measures the change in US private-sector employment and pay, according to PR Newswire.
    It's based on anonymized payroll data collected from over 25 million private-sector employees across the US.
    It's produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
    2. What it shows
    The report provides insights into overall private sector job gains and losses, pay growth, and sectoral employment trends.
    It details the change in total private employment for the current month and weekly job data from the previous month.
    The report includes a sectoral breakdown of employment changes by industry, allowing for detailed understanding of which sectors are growing or contracting.
    It also categorizes employment changes by business size (small, medium, large) to highlight trends within different-sized companies.
    The report also includes data on pay trends, specifically focusing on year-over-year pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers.
    3. Why it's important
    Labor Market Indicator: It offers a timely and representative picture of the private sector, a crucial segment of the US economy.
    Predictive Value: The report is released before the more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report, often serving as a leading indicator for predicting the BLS numbers.
    Sectoral Insights: The detailed breakdown by industry helps understand specific sector performance and trends.
    Economic Forecasting: The job and pay data are used by economists and market analysts for economic forecasting, influencing expectations for consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.
    Informs Business Strategy: The report helps companies understand labor market conditions, manage risk, and make workforce decisions, such as retention or layoff strategies.
    4. Key recent findings (July 2025 report)
    Private employers added 104,000 jobs in July, which was higher than the expected 77,000 addition and the largest monthly gain since March.
    Hiring gains were primarily driven by the services sector, which added 74,000 jobs, particularly in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.
    However, the education and health sector experienced a net loss of jobs, continuing a negative trend for the year.
    Year-over-year pay growth remained relatively stable, with a 4.4% increase for job-stayers and a 7% increase for job-changers.
    5. Next release
    The August 2025 ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on September 4, 2025, at 8:15 a.m. ET.
    In essence, the ADP report offers valuable insights into the health and dynamics of the US private sector labor market, acting as an important tool for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.
  • Global X PureCap ETFs (Alternatives for MSCI 25/50 ETFs)
    Global X has come up with PureCap ETFs that combine the use of sampling & indexed ETFs to achieve pure (uncapped) sector cap alternatives to MSCI 25/50 indexes (capped; related ETFs within parentheses): consumer discretionary GXPD (vs VCR, FDIS), communication services GXPC (vs VOX, FCOM), information technology GXPT (VGT, FTEC), consumer Staples GXPS (VDC, FSTA) & energy GXPE (vs VDE, FENY).
    WSJ (subscription) https://www.globalxetfs.com/articles/introducing-the-global-x-pure-cap-sm-suite-exploring-innovation-beyond-traditional-sector-investing
    More https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2131/thread
  • Is the Stock Market in a Speculative Bubble? T. Rowe Price CIO Weighs In
    Link works. The entire thesis is exactly where I am at the moment. Leaning into FI, not feeling that equities have a great risk premium right now. Holding cash in lieu of longer bonds. My FI allocation has nearly matched my equity allocation in the first half. I wouldn't be surprised if FI did even better in the 2nd half. Positive on stocks in the medium to long term, not so much the next six months.
    If my view is incorrect, I appear to be in some good company.

    Surprisingly, my individual stock portfolio is my YTD winner with 9.21%. Only one stock in the group (ALL) lags S&P. Four stocks have achieved +25% YTD.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    He would probably like to do something about the Institute For Supply Management after their latest report. Per Reuters:
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years amid tariffs that have raised prices of imported raw materials.
  • Is the Stock Market in a Speculative Bubble? T. Rowe Price CIO Weighs In

    In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Gunjan Banerji and Telis Demos dive into how, for the first time, brokerages have taken out more than $1 trillion dollars in margin debt to buy stocks and other securities. Next, they chat about Robinhood’s blowout earnings as another sign of market exuberance, and why investors are eagerly awaiting software and data analytics company Palantir's earnings this week.
    Then after the break, Sébastien Page, head of global multi-asset and chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, joins our hosts to chat about why he thinks AI stocks have strong financial and economic positions, and why he believes stocks will still deliver an equity risk premium. Plus, Page shares what he thinks investors could learn from sports psychology.

    I hope this is a free link that works to listen or read the transcript. If not, sorry about that!
    https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/take-on-the-week/is-the-stock-market-in-a-speculative-bubble-t-rowe-price-cio-weighs-in/3D568963-0B36-43CB-9D86-3F80F342ECBD
  • The 'Health' of our Healthcare funds are no longer Healthy for conservative equity holdings
    One of Buffett rules is for a very small % of investors: "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."
    For the majority: Buffett and Bogle have told you for decades to invest in the SP500.
  • IShares Active Infrastructure ETF
    Current yield of top 10 holdings is 3.5%.
  • The 'Health' of our Healthcare funds are no longer Healthy for conservative equity holdings
    10 year return for SP 500 is about 13%, whereas health care fund returns average about 5% in same time period.
    Rolling ten year returns for VGHCX from 1984-2025
    Big drop from 15, 12, 10, 9,8, all way down to 5%. How much lower can P/E ratio go for these stocks?
    https://bing.com/th/id/BCEI.6d2ebec9-20fc-4404-9dc6-9f3a74d6c0b7.png
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 1 August 2025. All flow tools also updated through 1 August.