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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I too reducd QQQ and high growth funds and rotated to VGK, Europe ETF. They have COVID-19 situation in control and manufacturing is steadily returning.
  • TDAmeritrade woes and recommendations for alternatives

    So TDAmeritrade's ThinkorSwim platform (and maybe others) have been mostly offline since 925ET this morning following last night's update. TDA has acknowledged the problem but it's becoming a s---tshow over there with their messaging (er, lack of it) ... the easiest thing would be to roll back the update, but they've chose not to, and thus many folks are unable to trade.
    TDA's been fairly solid for me since 2007 .... but I'm flashing back to the dark days of 2012-14 when every update would cause havoc and break things. Schwab's gotta be livid since they just announced TD's active platform ThinkorSwim would be their platform going forward, too.
    Anyway, I'm curious folks' thoughts on E-Trade or Fido as a possible all-in-one non-wirehouse brokerage replacment for TDA/Schwab for stocks/options/futures/OEFs.
  • The rise of the upper middle class
    The change in the skewing within the middle class looks to me to be a positive development.
    Three quick thoughts emerged from my morning walk:
    1. It is encouraging the "real" incomes of Americans have in general increased through recent decades.
    2. The chart suggests two reasonable sources of additional tax funds as needed to address widely perceived inequities in the current distribution of assets and incomes in the population: the upper class (the rich) and the upper middle class.
    3. My personal list of priority inequities that need to be mitigated: (1) access to adequate housing and medical care, (2) access to enhanced educational opportunities for disadvantaged children, and (3) access to enhanced job training and retraining opportunities.
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    FWIW, the management fees are going up by 1 basis point (each share class), because Wellington charges more than Vanguard's Quant Equity Group (QEG).
    Also, there's a technical error in the supplement. I have sent the following to Vanguard:
    The fund's Prospectus Supplement dated August 17, 2020 reads in part: "Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus)."
    I believe this needs to be corrected. The alluded to description of how Wellington manages this fund does not appear in the Summary Prospectus. It does appear in the Statutory Prospectus, p. 11 (pdf p. 16). So the August 17, 2020 Supplement (to both the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses) should be corrected to reference the description only in the Statutory Prospectus.
    That prospectus reads in part: "Wellington Management uses a bottom up approach, in which stocks are chosen based on the advisor's fundamental analysis and its assessment of valuation. Although oil and gas price expectations are considered, company-specific factors such as the quality of the companies' assets, internal reinvestment opportunities, investment plans to capitalize on those opportunities, and quality of management are key inputs in the decision-making process."
  • Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked
    “Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.”
    According to the above excerpt from John’s article, the purchase was sometime in the second quarter (April-June). Not necessarily all at one time. Might have caused an upward tic in Barrack at the time. More likely, the real impact will be on the retail investor crowd (you and me) now that the purchase was disclosed. I dunno. I can see a big run-up towards the election. But the big players can “pull the plug” anytime and send prices reeling - at least for shorter periods as they did recently.
    Folks will recall the March 7-15 period where gold and miners fell through the floorboards dropping 20% or more in a few days. I’m not sure when the recovery in (gold and miners) price started, but would guess sometime late in the first quarter (before WB apparently bought in). Note that he bought Barrick mining - not bullion - big difference.
    BTW - miners up 5% today at last look.
  • The rise of the upper middle class
    Decline of the middle class, or a skewing within the middle class?
    1967: 84% middle class
    2016: 85% middle class
    The working class is another story. As the WaPo concluded: "Falling behind is the lower middle class, once called the working class."
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000168386320012536/f6661d1.htm
    497 1 f6661d1.htm VANGUARD ENERGY FUND 497
    Vanguard Energy Fund
    Supplement Dated August 17, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 29, 2020
    The board of trustees of Vanguard Specialized Funds (the “Board”) approved restructuring of the investment advisory team of Vanguard Energy Fund (the “Fund”), removing The Vanguard Group, Inc.'s Quantitative Equity Group (“QEG”) as an investment advisor to the Fund. Wellington Management Company LLP (“Wellington”) will serve as the Fund’s sole advisor. All references to QEG, and all other details and descriptions regarding QEG's management of certain assets of the Fund in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are deleted in their entirety.
    The change in the Fund's investment advisory arrangement is expected to change the Fund's expense ratios to 0.33% for Investor Shares and 0.25% for Admiral™ Shares.
    Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus).
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Text Changes
    The following replaces a similar table under the heading “Fees and Expenses” in the Fund Summary section:
    Annual Fund Operating Expenses
    (Expenses that you pay each year as a percentage of the value of your investment)... (see link for table)
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    The other good thing for ETFs, in my mind, is you can place a trailing stop order. Like @carew388 I'm also skeptical of this market, especially going into the typical September swoon not to mention what will for sure be a tumultuous election process.
    I did this recently with QQQ. I sold a chunk of AKREX and put it into QQQ with a trailing stop of 5%. It's almost close to where if the order kicks in I would break even. I just don't want to ride all my equity money down 10, 15, 20% in another free-fall.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    @carew388: using ETFs is a good way to avoid the short-term transaction fees Schwab and TDA assess. Not using TDA much anymore, but I remember some MF’s had a 180-day holding period there.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    nope, almost all cash may 11, plus or minus; biding my time, rightly or wrongly
  • Leuthold, echoing everyone I've interviewed
    @David_Snowball
    Hi David- it looks like the situation in Iowa is finally getting a bit of attention. This, from NPR:

    'The Devastation Is Widespread.' Iowans Continue To Struggle Following Deadly Derecho
    Thousands of Iowans are still coping with the aftermath of a storm that pummeled the state last Monday with 100-mile-per-hour winds — a storm that flattened corn and soybean crops, damaged grain elevators and leveled banks, churches and homes.
    More than 158,000 Iowans were still without power as of Friday evening, according to Iowa Public Radio. By Sunday morning, more than 98,000 continued to lack power, according to the monitoring site PowerOutage.US.
    "The devastation is widespread. It's intense. Block after block of houses, every one with some amount of damage. Trees piled 6 to 10 feet high along the road. It's like walking through a tunnel of green with some fluorescent orange of placard houses that are unsafe to enter," Tyler Olson, a city council member from Cedar Rapids, told NPR's Weekend Edition on Saturday. "The city itself has been working hard to get roads cleared, so that has taken place in many parts of the city. But we're still without power. The majority of our citizens are without power."
    The storm system that flattened crops and toppled trees is called a derecho, a particularly damaging and severe kind of wind storm that can cause hurricane-force winds, tornadoes and heavy rains. As many as 14 million acres of farmland were damaged by the storm, The New York Times reported.
    "It's by far the most extensive and widespread damage that we've seen on this farm," Aaron Lehman, who grows corn and soybeans in Polk County in central Iowa, told Harvest Public Media. Lehman, who serves as president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said the damage was worse than a typical tornado.
    "Unlike a tornado, which is a mile wide, this stretched for a width of really intense damage — of approximately 40 miles, probably closer to 60-70 miles wide," he said.
    In Cedar Rapids, some families were left living in tents. At one badly damaged apartment complex, displaced children played outside amid shredded shingles, rusting nails and the chunks of fiberglass insulation, Iowa Public Radio reported.
    "I didn't hear no sirens until our electricity went off. And then we went out and looked out the window and then it just all happened," said 14-year-old Lenberg Phillip in an interview with Iowa Public radio. "We were just watching out the window and then minutes later the roof came off."
    Olson says they're still hoping to get a presidential disaster declaration.
    "We need electricity," Olson said. "The [Iowa] National Guard arrived a couple of days ago to assist with utility with power back on, but we have citizens without food, without medicine. And we're working as hard as we can as a city to meet those needs but we really need the federal government and their resources."
    President Donald Trump has not signed an emergency declaration yet. On Tuesday, he tweeted: "Sad to see the damage from the derecho in Midwest. 112 mile per hour winds in Midway, Iowa! The Federal government is in close coordination with State officials. We are with you all the way - Stay safe and strong!"
    At a press conference in Cedar Rapids on Friday, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds said the soonest she'd be able to submit an application for a disaster declaration is on Monday, according to Iowa Public Radio.
    "We're moving forward, we're coordinating efforts, we're working with the local emergency managers and working with city officials and the mayor," Reynolds said. "They're on the ground. They need to let us know how we can supplement and help them with the work that they're doing and that's how we can efficiently and effectively serve citizens."
    This all comes as Iowa continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While the rate of infections appears to be decreasing, now averaging 458 new cases a week with more than 52,000 cases and 975 deaths, experts are worried about how the state will be able to handle two disasters at once.
    "[The pandemic] has complicated relief efforts," Olson said. "It's hard to gather people together. It's hard for repair companies, insurance adjusters, to go into homes. Obviously protections that are in place because of the pandemic. And it really, the city's resources were strained before in trying to deal with that and now we're dealing with this probably historic disaster."
    We surely hope that things are improving for you folks .
    Regards- OJ
  • Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
    @FD1000 care to share what event caused you to get back in 04/2020?
  • A prospectus "risk" factor(s) addition.....a sign of the times, eh?

    Those who read a prospectus are aware of the long standing risk factors documented for a particular fund; as with: asset risk, credit risk, concentration risk, market risk, etc., etc., etc. The legal stuff, eh? One is is agreeing to "whatever" may affect fund performance; and effectively agrees to a "hold harmless" clause.
    The below is a newly added "risk" factor within a prospectus.

    Infectious Illness Risk.
    An outbreak of
    an infectious respiratory illness, COVID19, caused by a novel coronavirus has
    resulted in travel restrictions, disruption
    of healthcare systems, prolonged
    quarantines, cancellations, supply chain
    disruptions, lower consumer demand,
    layoffs, ratings downgrades, defaults
    and other significant economic impacts.
    Certain markets have experienced
    temporary closures, extreme volatility,
    severe losses, reduced liquidity and
    increased trading costs. These events
    will have an impact on the Fund and its
    investments and could impact the
    Fund’s ability to purchase or sell
    securities or cause elevated tracking
    error and increased premiums or
    discounts to the Fund’s NAV. Other
    infectious illness outbreaks in the future
    may result in similar impacts.

    Take care,
    Catch
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    @Catch22,
    Thanks for the update on bonds.
    I appreciate this very much as I am more of an equity guy; but, I do pay attention to the price movement of my income sleeve which is made up of bond and multi sector income funds. For the week it was down -0.24%, for the month it is up +2.49% and for the past 90 days it is up +8.53%.
    Following the March/April stock market swoon my income sleeve has performed well, as it also took a hit with my equities, and it is now back to a little above even. Overall, though, my portfolio is up year to date due mostly to my growth funds as my value funds still lag both my income and growth funds. But, I'm seeing my value funds now starting to find some traction as they were the better performers this past week.
    Perhaps, a rotation it taking place where some investors are repositioning and moving from overvalued to undervalued funds within their portfolios. Anyway, value was on the move last week as my domestic equity income sleeve was up +0.81% for the week, +4.30% for the month and +11.95% for the past 90 days. My global equity income sleeve has been on the move as well with a weekly gain of +0.90%, +3.39% for the past month, and +18.51% for it's three month period. Hopefully, this will continue and close the distance between my value and my growth funds which have had the better performance thus far this year.
    Take care ... stay safe ... and, thanks for the update on bonds.
    Old_Skeet
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    The week was rough for U.S. bond performance. However, the bond and equity markets remain, somewhat, within the functions of the central bank. Barring economic reports near term that are beyond belief to the positive side, I expect enough bond buying (in spite of issuance amounts) support to recover this weeks reversal in positive price trends. Looking at some of the YTD returns at this point of the year; one can't complain too much, eh? I've placed links below that won't take much of your time, related to bonds.
    Currently, I glance at data for , but do not track muni's, mortgage or foreign bonds.
    A few data views from bondland, for mostly AAA rated bonds:
    AUGUST 14 WEEK / YTD
    --- MINT = + .02% / +1.2% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = - .07% / +3.0% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .31% /+6.9% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.9% /+11% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.7% / +8% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = -3.2% / + 19.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = -3.9% /+21.6% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -5.4% / +28.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -6.1% /+29.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -1.3 / -1.4% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -2.4% / +7.7% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Priya Misra, Aug. 12, 3 minute video, bonds, yields and the FED.
    Jim Bianco Aug 14, 6 minute video, bonds and broad markets overview
    Scott Minerd, short text read, 30 year bond buying opportunity after sell-off
    As always, you'll have to be the final judge for the health of your portfolio mix using bonds.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked
    John, you are assuming Buffet made the call to buy Barrick. Plus the end if the 1st, start of the 2nd quarter is when gold took off. No way to tell when they bought. May not have been "half late to the party" as you put it.
    from the article:
    The filing shows moves made by Buffett or his two investing deputies, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler.
  • Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back

    I agree but the solution should never be only Government it should be a combo of Gov+the private sector developing programs for jobs that are needed in the work place.
    Yes...partnership makes sense.
  • James Montier, Reasons (NOT) To Be Cheerful
    Retail sales last month were above their pre-pandemic level, despite out of control pandemic. I guess if Trump will accept the gift Pelosi is offering and keep the stimulus coming, the stock market may start to look cheap.