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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariffs
    I stand corrected, apparently we have a $31 billion deficit on approximately $765 billion in total trade. Not surprising, as we import 4 million barrels of oil a day from Canada.
    I might add that I do not personally consider a trade deficit to be a bad thing, necessarily. Or believe that there could be zero trade deficits across all nations.
  • Tariffs
    USA has trade deficit with Canada on goods (oil, cars) of $63B, but services surplus of $32B. (Tourism, software, IP). Tourism from Canada is going down, but much less than 50% plus expected, for now…
    However, President Trump won’t allow other countries to tax USA services because he has all the cards, he is basically King of the World unless other countries get together and decide to do something.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    "Amazing what a 10.5% to 12.3% does over 30 years"
    Minor variations in annualized returns can lead to significant differences
    in terminal value when compounded over many years!
    Vanguard Health Care had a 16.4% annualized return during Ed Owens'
    long tenure (05/23/1984 - 12/31/2012) compared to the S&P 500 index's 10.7% return.
    The fund's returns during Jean Hynes' tenure (ending Jan. 2025) paled in comparison.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    Using testfolio, not sure how accurate it is with weekly, daily deposits because it comes back too fast.
    Amazing what a 10.5% to 12.3% does over 30 years
    With $10,000 initial investment.
    S&P 500 $197,026.06 10.45%
    VGHCX $326,539.82 12.32%
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    An article on CNN was entitled "The Trump administration takes a very Orwellian turn."
    And here we are.
    https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/02/politics/the-trump-administration-takes-a-very-orwellian-turn
    "What happens if the next jobs report is great? Will the markets believe it?
    We’ve certainly seen plenty of rather blunt Trump efforts to control such narratives and rewrite history before. A sampling:
    - He engaged in a yearslong effort to make Jan. 6 defendants who attacked the Capitol in his name out to be sympathetic patriots, even calling them “hostages,” before pardoning them.
    - His administration’s efforts to weed out diversity, equity and inclusion from the government often ensnared things that merely celebrated Black people and women.
    - He and his administration have at times taken rather dim views of the free speech rights of those who disagree with them, including talking about mere protests – i.e. not necessarily violence – as being “illegal.” A loyalist US attorney at one point threatened to pursue people who criticized then-Trump ally Elon Musk even for non-criminal behavior.
    - Trump has repeatedly suggested criticism of judges he likes should be illegal, despite regularly attacking judges he doesn’t like.
    - His term began with the portraits of military leaders who clashed with him being removed from the Pentagon. It also began with a massive purge of independent inspectors general charged with holding the administration to account.
    All of it reinforces the idea that Trump is trying to consolidate power by pursuing rather heavy-handed and blatant tactics.
    But if there’s a week that really drove home how blunt these efforts can be, it might be this one."
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    @gman57
    I share your concern about login credentials. this is a potential issue with all "aggregators" most of which (Fidelity retrieving your Schwab accounts etc) in the past used Yodlee.
    Schwab has enhanced it's security for Quicken and other aggregators, and when I have asked I have been told these allow data scrapping only and not transactions. So the hack would have to be of the aggregator to access your pw.
    Given the option, I do not store my credentials with Quicken, but copy and past them in when I update.
    A couple of times a year I have searched for instances of fraud caused by hacking into Quicken or Yodlee and have never found any reports.
    This topic was explored in depth a couple of years ago here.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60398/are-the-risks-of-financial-account-aggregation-really-worth-it/p2
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    @gman57, yes, I have a theory. Many typos just hide in plain view and reveal themselves only after making copies or posting. It must be some law of nature!
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report

    greetings from the 3rd world. turkey also had fired its head of stats after a much too truthful inflation report, which was obvious to anyone on the planet looking at public and black market currency exchange.
    https://archive.ph/YJ5S0
    i guess if you are permitted to stay alive in authoritarian regimes after doing math and science, its something.
    if one feel this affects how you invest in america, one can join BLM Friends (for free) and\or send a message on their site supporting reinstatement of someone clearly more competent than a MAGA lackey.
    https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-commissioner-mcentarfers-removal
    or continue enjoying gop's greatening of america until they come for your money. by hook, and literally, by crook.
  • Tariffs
    Our strength was our tight knit allies and partners we've built up over decades. If they thought is was a fluke the first term now they're thinking how can they trust the US going forward. Allies and partners unfortunately are in the process of going...going...gone This is better destruction than in our enemies wildest dreams.
    Well-said. It will be 'America Alone' before it becomes 'America First' .... just like how Donnie tried to bully his way into the NYC social elites (who shunned him) and then the NFL owners club (who also rejected him) he's trying to make himself the center of attention so people (countries) HAVE to come to him and pay their respects.
    Allies are learning that the US can't be trusted. Not just because of Donnie, but because of a dysfunctional Congress that will just enable whatever kook is in power and not serve as a proper 'check and balance' to their policies, a government that routinely - if not proudly - ignores the rule of law and court decisions, treats treaty obligations as 'optional' duties, and a dysfunctional populace that either votes for chaos or doesn't vote at all (thus helping enable the chaos). To wit: Countries are reportedly thinking twice before sharing intelligence with us these days, and I'm sure regional ex-US trading blocs are getting stronger, too.
    I think we are at the beginning of a restructuring of the world order -- but it's not the one America (or Donnie) thinks it will be, no matter how hard they bleat about it. Economy-wise I believe the world will restructure to work WITH the United States, but not THROUGH the United States, and yes, I am in the camp that believes the dollar's ongoing primacy is being endangered these days.
  • T Rowe Price new ETFs in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000199937125010418/etf-485apos_080125.htm
    Active Core International Equity ETF
    Active Core U.S. Equity ETF
    Emerging Markets Equity Research ETF
    High Income Municipal ETF
    Innovation Leaders ETF
    Long Municipal Income ETF
    Multi-Sector Income ETF
    Short Municipal Income ETF
  • Vontobel Global Environmental Change Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000139834425014318/fp0094738-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0094738-1_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND II
    (the “Trust”)
    Vontobel Global Environmental Change Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated August 1, 2025 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), Summary Prospectus (the “Summary Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated January 28, 2025
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Vontobel Asset Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about August 29, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Cliff Asness - AQR Capital Management
    Crypto - looking back from the year 2035....
    "But when Bitcoin hit $100,000 we realized we had missed out on the next big thing and that leaving computers running really did build digital gold (and we “learned” that scarcity of something leads to anything scarce going up forever, even if it’s useless.")
  • Question about Share Classes ... FOCKX
    Fido K-class is typically the lowest ER class available in 401k/403b/457. Count yourself lucky for FOCKX.
    FOCPX is generally available for Fido a/c.
    FOTDX and FOTEX are through advisor channels - advisors have to be paid and there are breaks on loads for large purchases.
    Have you looked at the class-champion - American Funds with 18-20 classes?
  • Cliff Asness - AQR Capital Management
    An interesting discussion with Cliff Asness from AQR on The Long View podcast.
    "The founder of AQR Capital Management discusses alternative strategies,
    private markets, tariffs, and the role of AI in investing."

    https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/526f0852-3f72-4259-941c-e27eed99645f
  • Question about Share Classes ... FOCKX
    Hello,
    Can someone explain the reason why a fund has different "share classes"? What are the differences for the asset owners?
    My 401K offers the FOCKX, I went to look them up and saw that there are several others in the same family. FOC*, FOT*
    It appears to me these are the same underlying assets, with a different expense ratio/loads.
    The expense ratio and loads
    Symb | ER % | Load %
    FOCKX | 0.66 | -
    FOCPX | 0.73 | 0
    FOTDX | 1.03 | 5.75 (wow)
    FOTEX | 1.28 | 3.5
    I thought loaded mutual funds were kind of dead ... Why would someone pay a Load and a higher expense ratio?
    Cheers,
    Craig
  • Fed Governor Kugler Resigning Early
    Remember that Fed (7) and FOMC (7+5=12) were full until today. And Powell didn't say whether he will leave as Fed Governor after his Fed Chair term ends in 05/2026.
    Kugler vacancy provides for nominating a potential future Fed Chair as Fed Governor now, and then nominate him/her as Fed Chair ahead of 05/2026.
    I have been looking for some details about details of Kugler's "personal reasons" since her absence at the FOMC on Wednesday, but didn't find any. My guess is that if she is to leave, it's better to leave before the academic year begins, rather than in the middle. Henry Kissinger also faced a similar dilemma and forced the choice between being a Special Presidential Advisor vs Secretary of State - he was gone long enough from Harvard and it was pressing him to return or resign - we know how that turned out.
  • Fed Governor Kugler Resigning Early
    He thinks he can lie and everyone will believe it. Gas is $1.98, inflation is way down, everybody loves us, tariffs aren't a tax and will make us great. I think he really believes that, everything is better than it's ever been in the history of the country! You've never seen it this great, people won't believe how much we'll win... but unfortunately for him there are facts. Really, it's the project 2025 folks running the show, maybe they aren't as smart as they think they are.
  • Fed Governor Kugler Resigning Early
    Fed Governor Adriana Kugler (55) resigning early (her term ended 01/2026) to return to Georgetown U in Fall 2005. She cited personal reasons.
    She missed the FOMC meeting on Wednesday also citing personal reasons.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/federal-reserve-governor-kugler-part-of-the-committee-that-sets-interest-rates-is-resigning.html
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/kugler.htm